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UsingFutureScenariostoIdentifyPotentialLAMPandWatershedPlanningMeasuresforClimateChangeAdaptationalongLakeOntario:
STAKEHOLDERGENERATEDRECOMMENDATIONS
AReportforLakeandWatershedPlanners
23December2015NYSGI-W-15-001
Submittedby:Dr.KatherineBunting-Howarth,AssociateDirector,NewYorkSeaGrantDavidMacNeill,GreatLakesFisheriesandEcosystemSpecialist,NewYorkSeaGrantJessicaSpaccio,ExtensionSpecialist,NortheastRegionalClimateCenter,CornellUniversityDr.RebeccaSchneider,AssociateProfessor,CornellUniversity,DepartmentofNaturalResources.Dr.BrianWeidel,ResearchFisheriesBiologist,USGSBiologicalFieldStationDr.ArthurDeGaetano,Director,NortheastRegionalClimateCenter;Professor, CornellUniversity,DepartmentofEarthandAtmosphericSciences
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UsingFutureScenariostoIdentifyPotentialLAMPandWatershedPlanningMeasuresforClimateChangeAdaptationalongLakeOntario:
STAKEHOLDERGENERATEDRECOMMENDATIONS
AReportforLakeandWatershedPlanners
TableofContents
ExecutiveSummary……………………………………………………………………………………..Page3Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………….Page4ProcessEmployed…………………………………………………………………………………………Page7StakeholderGeneratedRecommendations…………………………………………………..Page10PotentialNextSteps……………………………………………………………………………………...Page21Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………..Page22References……………………………………………………………………………………………………..Page23Appendices…………………………………………………………………………………………………….Page24Bunting-Howarth,K.,D.MacNeill,J.Spaccio,R.Schneider,B.WeidelandA.DeGaetano.2016.UsingFutureScenariostoIdentifyPotentialLAMPandWatershedPlanningMeasuresforClimateChangeAdaptationalongLakeOntario:StakeholderGeneratedRecommendations—AReportforLakeandWatershedPlanners.NYSGI-W-15-001.29pages.
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ExecutiveSummaryLakeOntario,thefourteenthlargestlakeintheworld,isavastgeographicalfeaturebutisneverthelessinfluencedbyhumanbehavior,asevidencedbychangesinnutrientconcentrationsandcycling,speciescomposition,andfoodwebdynamics.NutrientloadsandwaterclarityobservedinLakeOntariooverthepasttwodecadesillustratethepotentialforhumanbehaviortoinfluencethislargeandimportantecosystem.Whilescientistsworktounderstandhowtheecosystemhaschangedandanticipatefuturechanges,thereisaconcurrentneedtoeducateabroaderstakeholdergroupaboutfutureuncertaintiesintheecosystemandtheservicesitprovides(Walkeretal.2002).ScenarioPlanninghasproventobeausefultooltohelpprepareforuncertainfutures.Scenariosdevelopedwithmulti-disciplinaryinputrepresentplausible,butalternate,futureconditionsofasystemofinterest(Wack1985).Assuch,theycanprovideameansofunderstandingpotentialfutureimpacts,suchasthoserelatedtoclimatechange,andcanhelpdeveloplocal,adaptivedecision-makingtoreducetheseverityofthoseimpacts(Wack1985;Petersonetal.2003).In2012,NewYorkSeaGrantorganizedascenarioworkshop,fundedbytheGLRI(GreatLakesRestorationInitiative)asanexercisetoexplorepossiblescenariosforthefutureoftheLakeOntarioecosystemwithinputfromdiversestakeholders(WorkshopI).Twomaindriversofecosystemtrajectorieswereidentifiedclimateinducedprecipitationextremes,andhumandemographics.Fournarrativesdescribingthesefuturestatesweredevelopedandtheunderlyingconditionswereidentifiedbythegroup.
Thefouridentifiedscenarios(futurestates)wereasfollows.1. DrierClimate--SlowPopulationGrowth:“BoatlessLakeOntario”2. WetClimate--SlowPopulationGrowth:“RagingRunoff”3. DrierClimate--FastPopulationGrowth:“CrowdedBeaches”4. WetClimate--FastPopulationGrowth:“SoggyStripMalls”
WithfundingfromtheGreatLakesIntegratedScienceAssessmentprogram(GLISA),aniterativeapproachwastakentodevelopdraftrecommendationsforLakewideActionandManagementPlans(LAMP)(binationalplansdesignedspecificallyforeachofthefiveGreatLakes)aswellasforwatershedplannerstoconsiderwhenadaptingexisting(andnew)planstoaddressclimatechange.DuringtheMay2015workshop(WorkshopII),draftrecommendationsweresynthesizedfromdiversestakeholdersthatconsideredlongtermextremesinprecipitation(extremeprecipitationanddrought)andhumandemographics(slowandrapidpopulationgrowth)ascreatedinthescenarioworkshopinSeptember2012.Follow-upworkshopswereheldinthefallof2015(WorkshopsIII-AandB)togatherpublicinputonthesedraftrecommendations.Workshopsattendeesusedtheirlocalknowledge,beliefs,andopinionstorefineandprioritizepotentialmanagementandpolicyactionsthatwouldaddtothesystem’sresiliencyandbuffertheimpactoffutureuncertainties.Recommendationsgeneratedthroughtheprocessfallintofivemajorcategories:WaterResourceManagement;Infrastructure(Transportation,Drinking,WasteandStormwater);Water-DependentBusiness;LandUsePlanning,ZoningandGovernance;andEcosystem
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Management.Theserecommendationsweremadeacknowledgingpotentialbarrierstoimplementationsuchaslackoffunding,politicalwill,andunderstandingofpotentialfutureproblems.ThisreportisintendedforusebyLAMPandwatershedmanagersandplanners.Thepurposeofthisreportisnottobeprescriptive,buttoprovideastartingpointforplannerstousewhenengagingthepublicandincorporatingclimatechangeadaptationrecommendationsintoplans.IntroductionWithinthelastdecade,interestintheimpactsofclimatechangehassignificantlyincreased.Concomitantly,therehasbeenwidespreadrecognitionthatactionmustbetakentoreduceclimatechangeimpactsaswellastoadapttothepotentialchanges.Thedevelopmentofsector-specificadaptiveplanning,however,haslaggedbehind.Thiscan,inpart,beattributedtouncertaintyandthelackoffine-scaleclimateimpactprojectionsforlocalandregionallevelsasmostprojectionsareforbroadergeographicareas(Hayhoe,etal.2008).However,predictivemodelsevenatfinerscalesmayneverbecompletelyaccurateinforecastingfuturestates.Thus,toolstohelpunderstandandplanwithinthecontextofuncertaintyareneeded(Wack1985).ThenortheasternUS,aregionpredictedtoexperiencebothmorefloodingassociatedwithhighfrequencyrainfallsandmoredroughtsduetowarmingandlongerno-rainperiods(Kunkeletal.2014),isoneexamplehighlightingthechallengesofplanningunderpredictedhighvariability.Manytoolsareavailabletoassistcommunitiesinassessingtheirvulnerabilitiestotheimpactsofclimateintheareasofhumanhealth,infrastructure,ecosystems,andemergencyresponse,aswellasplanningstrategiesforadaptingtothechangingclimate.Althoughtoolsareavailable,informationfromprevioussurveysandstudiesacrossthenationcontinuetomakeusawarethatthereisstillagapbetweencommunities’awarenessoftheclimateandactualactiontowardadaptation.Infact,surveyscompletedintheGreatLakesregionthatweretargetedatlocalofficialsandlocalgovernmentstaff,clearlyindicatethatamajorityofcommunitiesintheGreatLakesregionarenotcurrentlyincorporatingclimateadaptationconceptsintotheirplanningprocesses,despitetheawarenessofcurrentandpotentialimpactsofthechangingclimate.(SeeNelson,Dawn,etal.2011.)Alternatively,scenarioplanninghasbeenidentifiedasausefulprocessthatcanhelporganizethinkingaboutuncertainfutures.Originallyusedbymilitariesandbusinesses,thescenarioplanningprocesshasbeenusedincreasinglyinsocio-ecologicalsettingssuchastheMillenniumEcosystemAssessmenthttp://www.unep.org/maweb/en/Scenarios.aspxandtheGreatLakesFuturesProjecthttp://uwo.ca/biology/glfp/.Thegreateststrengthoftheprocessishelpingadiverseaudiencerecognizewhatdifferentpeoplevalueabouttheirenvironment,inthiscaseLakeOntarioanditswatershed,andhowtheiractivitiescouldimpactthoseresources.Theprocessisflexible,butgenerallyisbuiltfromdialogbetweenmultiplestakeholdersfromdiversebackgrounds(suchasgovernment,scientists,businessowners,recreationalusers,
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environmentaladvocates,andothers).Thegoalsofthedialogaretodefinethe‘system’inquestion,theareaandresourcesthatarethetargetoftheexercise,andtoidentifythe‘drivers’,i.e.theforcesorkeyinfluencesthatwillmostlikelychangethesysteminthefuture.Projectinghowdriversmayunfoldgiverisetosimpleyetstrikingcontrastingfutures.Althoughsubjectiveinnature,the“projected”futurestateswhicharegeneratedshouldberealisticandequallyplausible.Participantsdevelopalternative,logicallyconsistentstories(notfancifulpredictions—butsimple“projections”)aboutthesystem’sfuturebasedonhowtheidentifieduncertaintiesmightunfold.Thesestoriesportrayboththepositiveandnegativeconsequencesofafuture30-40yearsawayandincludeeconomic,cultural,andecologicalelements.Arealstrengthofthisprocessisthat,becausethestoriesaredevelopedbyindividualswhoarefamiliarwiththesystem,thestoriesreflectlocalexperiences,becomemorebelievable,andareacceptedbytheparticipants.Apowerfullearningmomentresultswhenstoriesaresharedandworkshopparticipantsrecognizehowsimplebutuncertaincontrastingincidentscanleadtocascadingevents,resultingindrasticallydifferentfutures.Inaddition,thetoolcanbeusedtoassistinidentifyingtheactionsthatcanbetakentodaytohelpprepareforthesedifferentfuturesand,inturn,identifyactionswhichcanbenefitacommunitynomatterwhattypeoffuturearises.ScenarioDevelopmentforLakeOntarioInSeptemberof2012,adiversesetofstakeholdersmetfortwodaysattheCornellBiologicalFieldStationtoutilizethescenarioplanningprocesstoimagineandcreatefourdifferentfuturescenarios(30-40yearsout)forLakeOntarioanditscoastalcommunities(WorkshopI).Theworkshopinvolvedtwenty-fourdiversestakeholdersrepresentingresearchers,marinaoperators,fishermen,smallbusinessowners,anglingorganizations,countytourismandhealthdepartments,sport-fishingpromotion,charterboatindustry,cooperativeextension,Statewatershedmanagers,shorelinepropertyowners,countysoilandwater,non-profitgroups,andacademicsfromtheUnitedStatesandCanada(OntarioMinistryofNaturalResources).TheparticipantswereinvitedbyNewYorkSeaGrant’sRecreationalFisheriesSpecialist.Theinviteeswereselectedbasedonthediversityoftheirviewsandintereststhattheyrepresent.Inaddition,theywereselectedbasedonknowledgeoftheirabilitytoworkwellwithingroupsandnotdominateconversationsnorsimplyspeaktopositionstatementstotheexclusionofengaginginadialogue.Theinitialgoalofthisexercisewastoengagediverseparticipantsinadiscussiontoexchangetheirknowledge,opinionsandbeliefsonthedriversthatwillshapethefutureoftheecosystem.Thegroupchoseclimatechange(specificallyprecipitationchanges)andpopulationgrowthasthemajoruncertainties(drivers)fordesigningtheirnarrativesaboutfutureecological,social,economicandculturalstatesonLakeOntarioanditsbasin.ThefouridentifiedLakeOntariofuturesindependentlyidentifiedbythegroupswere:
1. DrierClimate-SlowPopulationGrowth:“BoatlessLakeOntario”2. WetClimate-SlowPopulationGrowth:“RagingRunoff”
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3. DrierClimate-FastPopulationGrowth:“CrowdedBeaches”4. WetClimate-FastPopulationGrowth:“SoggyStripMalls”
Schematicdiagramsrepresentingtheconditionsassociatedwitheachscenarioweredevelopedtohelpwiththevisualizationinsubsequentdialogs(Figurebelow).Thegoalofthe2015projectwastousethefourscenariosasatoolinsubsequentdiscussionsaboutrecommendationsforplanningandpolicydevelopmentforaddressinguncertaintiesrelatedtoclimatechangeandpopulationgrowth.ThisprojectwasdesignedtobuilduponWorkshopI,whichdevelopedthepreviouslydiscussedscenarios,asthebasisfordevelopingafirstroundofrecommendationsforLakeandWatershedmanagersofLakeOntarioanditswatershedstoconsiderwhenamendingandcreatingplanstoaddressclimatechange.Theprojectdesignincludedthreesubsequentworkshops:onewithinviteddiversestakeholders(WorkshopII)andtheothertwo(WorkshopsIII-AandB)inareastoattractdifferentsegmentsofthegreaterpublic.
IllustrationsbyBrianWeidelandMatthewPaufve,USGS
WorkshopIIwasdesignedtobeatwo-dayeventwhichwouldengagesimilar,andsomeofthesame,stakeholderswhoparticipatedinWorkshopI.Theprojectteamincludedmulti-disciplinarygroupsfromtheGreatLakesIntegratedScienceAssessments(GLISA),NortheastRegionalClimateCenter(NRCC),UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey(USGS),CornellUniversityandNewYorkSeaGrant(NYSG).Inaddition,inordertoincreasethelikelihoodourfindingsbeingutilizedbystateagencies,weinvitedtheNYSDEC’sLakeOntarioLAMPWorkGroup
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representativetojoinourorganizationalmeetings.Ourteamincludedexpertsinextension,waterresourceexperts,fisheries,scenarioplanning,publicparticipationaswellasclimatechange.TheultimategoalofWorkshopIIwastohaveparticipantsidentifyasuiteofplanningactionsthatwere“win-win”,i.e.thatwould(a)addressissuesrelevanttomultiplestakeholdertypes,and(b)simultaneouslyhelptobufferpotentialimpactsfrommorethanoneofthefourfuturescenarios.ThefinalproductofWorkshopIIwasadeliberatedsetofstakeholderdrivenrecommendationsforupdatingtheLAMPandlocalwatershedplans,inordertoaddressclimatechangeandbecomemoreresilient.OncewesynthesizedthefindingsfromWorkshopII,weattemptedtoverifythesefindingsandascertaintheir“acceptabilityforadoption”throughreviewbytwoadditionalindependentgroupsofstakeholders.Thiswasaccomplishedthroughinvitingthepublictoattendtwoeveningworkshops(WorkshopsIII-AandB)indifferentareasoftheLakeOntarioBasin.Thisreportcontainsrecommendationsidentifiedas“win-win.”
ProcessEmployedParticipantsInvitationstoWorkshopIIweresentstartinginMarchandourintentwastoattractasmanyofthesamestakeholdersaspossiblefromthe2012workshop.Ourgoalwastoengageadiversesetofparticipants.Participantsincluded:planningagencies,federalandstateagencies,soilandwaterconservationdistricts,environmentalandsport-fishingorganizationsaswellascooperativeextensionagentsrepresentingagriculturalinterests.Unlikethefirstworkshop,welackedbusinessandtribalrepresentation.Presentations:MakingtheExtremesPlausibleTheNortheastRegionalClimateCenter,UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey,NewYorkSeaGrantandCornellUniversityteammembersdraftedanddesignedpresentationswhichillustratedthesciencebehindtheextremesinprecipitationalongwiththepotentialimpactsontheecosystemandhumaninfrastructure.Forillustratingandexplainingprecipitationextremes,theteamdecidedtousespecifichistoricalexamples.Presentationshighlighteddatainmapsandchartsalongwithhistoricalpicturesofthoseextremeevents.Achartofobservedannualprecipitation,mapofobservedheavyprecipitationevents,andamapofprojectedwinterprecipitationchangewereincludedinthewetscenario.Amapofprojecteddrydays,amapofprojectedsnowcoverchange,andchartsofobservedandprojectedlakelevelwereincludedinthedryscenario.Thisuseof“real-world”data,not“pretend”informationgaveconsiderablecredibilitytothescenariosdevelopedandenhancedtheengagementofourstakeholders.EventsandpictureschosenvisualizedforworkshopattendeesthedryandwetscenariosandtheirimpactstheLakeOntariowatershed.
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Inasimilarfashion,teammembersfromCornellandUSGSprovidedexamplesofscientificallybasedbutdifferingpotentialimpactsoncoastalandupstreamwatershedhabitatsandwaterqualityinordertoensurethefourscenariospresentresourcechangesinsubstantiallydifferentways.Forexample,drierconditionscouldbeassociatedwithstreamandwetlanddry-outs,exposedshorelinesatmarinas,anddrywellswhereasgreaterprecipitationcouldbeassociatedwithflooding,sedimenterosionandpollution.Inthismanner,theparticipantscouldbrainstormandgeneratepotentialactionsthatcoverawiderangeoffutureecosystemchanges.Foreachscenariotheenvironmentalstressorswereexplainedaswellaspossibleopportunities.Picturesandimageswereincludedtosupporttheseimpacts.ExistingExampleClimateAdaptionActionSurveyshavefoundthatthemajorityofGreatLakesregionalofficialsandgovernmentstaffwerenotincorporatingclimateadaptationintoplanningprocesses,despitetheawarenessofcurrentandpotentialchangingclimateimpacts(SeeNelsonetal.2011).SeaGrantprogramsandregionalorganizationshavedraftedrecommendationsandconsolidatedcasestudiesandtools(see,forexample,Dinse.2009andwww.greatlakesresilience.org).Forthisproject,NYSGreviewedpeerandgrayliterature,webresources,andcontactsthroughoutthebasintoidentifyactivitiesthatotherGreatLakescommunitieshavetakentointegrateclimatechangeuncertaintyintotheirLAMPsorwatershedplans.This‘learningfromothers’approachpreventedduplicationofefforts.Thisworkwasconsolidatedintoaworkshoppresentationdesignedtojump-startparticipantbrainstormingaboutclimatechangeadaptationplanningapproacheswithexamplestrategiesusedinotherlocationsandinothersimilardocuments.WorkshopProcessWorkshopIIwasdesignedtoextendovertwodaysinordertogiveparticipantstimetoknoweachother,feelcomfortabletalkingandworkingtogether,andtogivethemtimetomulloverboththescenarioapproachitselfandtheactualscenariosforwhichplanningwastotakeplace.Inthisway,deeperthinkingwentintotherecommendations.Groupworkoccurredaroundeachofthescenariosandfollowedadiscussionguide.Attendeesweregivenhandoutsoftheirrespectivescenarios,includingdescriptiveartworkandmainpoints(SeeAppendixA.).Theessenceofthisexercisewasthateachgroupwaschargedtocreaterecommendationsforwhatdecision-makersshoulddoTODAYtopreparefortheassignedscenarioPOTENTIALFUTURE(notingthatourfocuswasonrecommendationsforLAMPandWatershedPlans.)Breakoutsessionsoccurredonbothdaysforatotalof3.5hours.Thekeyquestionswere:
• Whatdoyouthinkweshoulddotodaytobemorepreparedforthatpotentialfuture?• Whatarethebarrierstoimplementingthataction?Whatarewaysaroundthebarrier?• Whatarethesecondarybenefitsfromtakingthataction?
Afterthisroundofbrainstorming,thegroupswerereconvenedtosharerecommendations,identifybarriersandwaysofsurmountingbarriers.Thenextstepwascritical.Thelargergroupthenidentifiedcommonactions,missingtopics,andpotentialvenuesforpresentinginformationgeneratedattheworkshop.Theoutcomewasasetofstakeholder-driven
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recommendationsforupdatingtheLAMPandlocalwatershedplansthataddressclimatechangeandincreaseresiliency.Multiplerecommendationsweregeneratedthatcouldbegroupedintothefivebroadcategoriesof:waterresourcemanagement,infrastructure,planningandzoning,water-relatedbusinesses,andecosystemmanagement.Recommendationsalsoencompassedtypesofstrategiesrangingfromeducationtoregulations.Somepowerfulrecommendedactionswereidentifiedasprovidinggoodsolutionstoaddresstheextremesofallfourscenarios.Forexample,improvedcaptureofstormwaterrunoffwithincreasedinfiltrationandgroundwaterrechargewouldhelpreduceboththeproblemsoffloodinganddroughtsandincreasewateravailabilityforpopulationgrowth.Suchwin-winsolutionsrankhighpriorityforimmediateplanningaction.Otherrecommendationsofnoteincludeimprovedwaterandstormwatermanagement,increasedextentofriparianbuffers,wetlandandstreamhydrologyrestoration,infrastructureimprovementandrelocation;aswellassocialrecommendationsrelatedtogovernance,andlinkingjobtrainingtoenergyandenvironmentalactions.Wecreatedamatrixtomoreconciselypackagetherecommendedactions,implementationmechanisms,andopportunitiesforovercomingbarrierstoimplementation.Thecolumntitlesaretherecommendationcategoriesbytopicareaandtheitemsalongthesidepresentpotentialmethodsforimplementationand/ortoolsforovercomingbarrierstoimplementation.(SeeAppendixB,Summaryof“Win-Win”Recommendations.)
InNovember2015,thefinalseriesofpublicengagement,WorkshopsIII-AandBwereheldatoppositeendsoftheLakeBasin.Theaudienceconsistedofinterested(anddiverse)membersofthepublicthatincludedlakesideresidents,environmentalactiongroups,anglers,boaters,statelegislator,environmentalmanagementagencies,waterqualitycoordinatingcommittees,andotherconcernedcitizens.Forbothoftheseworkshops,openpublicattendancewasthefocus,ratherthantheinvited-onlystakeholderfocusofthefirsttwoworkshops.Theseworkshopswereorganizedtogatherpublicinputontheserecommendationstobepresentedtostateandfederalagenciesonhowtoaddressuncertaintiesrelatedtoextremeweatherpatternsandpopulationchangeinlakeandwatershedmanagementplans.WorkshopsIII-AandBwereheldinverydifferentpartsofthewatershed(RochesterandWatertown)andscheduledforeveninginthehopethatamorediverserepresentativepubliccouldattend.Apressreleasewasgeneratedwhichwaspickedupby28localpapersandothermediaoutlets.Inaddition,theGreatLakesInformationNetworkwasusedtopublicizetheworkshopsaswellastheemaillistfortheGreatLakesActionAgendaheldbyNYSDEC.TwitterandFacebookwerealsoused.WorkshopsIII-AandBweredesignedtobrieflysharetheuncertaintiesrelatedtoprecipitationduetoclimatechangeanditsimpactsonoursocioecologicalsystemandthenpresentthesynthesizedrecommendationsfromtheMayworkshop.Thegroupwasgivenaboutanhourtorotatethroughfivestations.Eachstationhaditsowntheme:waterresourcemanagement,infrastructure,water-dependentbusiness,landuse/zoning,andecosystemmanagement.Ateachstation,groupswereaskedtodiscusstheactionsandaddtoormodifyexistingactionsorrecommendations.Flipchartsandmarkerswereagaintheprimarytoolforgatheringinput.Postersoftherecommendationsummarytableweremadeanddisplayedateachstation.At
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theconclusion,thegroupswereaskedtoprioritizeallofthepresentedrecommendations.Theyusedstickydotstodenoteonerecommendationateachstationtheyfeltwasthebest.Overall,WorkshopsIII-AandBvalidatedthekeyactionitemsidentifiedinWorkshopII.TheprioritizationexercisehighlightedactionswithineachofthecategoriesidentifiedinWorkshopII(waterresourcemanagement,infrastructure,planningandzoning,water-relatedbusinesses,andecosystemmanagement).Inaddition,WorkshopsIII-AandBhighlightedadditionalareasforinquiry,suchasmanagementofonsitewastewatertreatmentanddisposalsystems.
StakeholderGeneratedRecommendationsBelowaretherecommendationsgeneratedbystakeholderswhoparticipatedintheworkshops.Giventhetimeavailableduringtheworkshop,theycoverabroadrangeoftopics,generally,andreflectthetypeofactionsthisdiversestakeholdergroupfeltwouldbeappropriateforaddressingbothextremesassociatedwithclimatechangegeneratedprecipitationandpopulationgrowth.Readersofthisreportmayhaveadditionalinformationandknowledgebeyondthatoftheworkshopparticipants,suchasexistingrequirements,newinitiativesandothernuanceddetails.However,theserecommendationsaresignificanttoallreadersastheyillustratethewealthoflocalknowledge,localprioritiesandaneedformorepublicengagementandeducationrelatedtopotentialimpactsofuncertainfuturesonlakeandwatershedresources.WaterResourceManagementRecommendedAction#1:Providestormwaterstoragefeatures(bothnaturalandman-made)tohaveamoreconsistentwatersupplyduringdroughts(sourceofsupply)whileprovidingsomefloodmitigationandstorageduringwetperiods(sourceofasink).DiscussionThisactionistargetedatstormwatermanagementpractices.Manytimesthefocusonstormwateroccursduringweteventsandthus,manyoftherecommendationsareforthesetypesofprecipitationevents.However,stormwaterfeaturesthatretainwatercanbehelpfulfordroughtsituations.Potentialresponsestothisrecommendationcouldincludetheuseofretention/detentionpondsandrechargestructureswhereapplicable,aswellasothergreeninfrastructureapproaches.Theuseofstormwaterstructuresforstoragewillallowwatertobeavailableindrytimes.Suchstructurescouldbeusedforresidentialandagriculturalwatersupplyneeds.Barriers
• Knowledgeofhowtocorrectlybuildandmaintain• Costs• Publicdislikeforlocatingwaterstoragenearhomes• Childsafety• Locating,developingandbuildingretentionstructures• Appropriatetechnologyandengineeringspecificationsforstructurecapacity
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PotentialSolutions• Educationofthepublicandsomestakeholdergroupsabouttheneedandbenefitsofthese
structurescouldgenerategrassrootssupport• Cost/benefitanalysisorothereconomicstudiescouldmoreclearlyillustraterelativebenefits• Enlistingthesupportof,andworkingcloselywith,engineersandclimatologistscouldleadto
moretechnicalinformationforsitinganddesigning• Outreach• Usepublicareas,easementsandlandtrusts• Improveturfmanagementandothervegetativeapproachestocontrollingandstoringwater
RecommendedAction#2:Managestormwaterforwaterqualityandbeneficialuse.DiscussionStormwatermanagementwasdiscussedbyallgroupsinallextremes.Thisrecommendationfocusesonenhancingwaterqualityofstormwater.Itcallsforimprovedstandardsandtechnologyforstormwatermanagementespeciallyinareaswhereexistingstormwaterregulationsarenotapplicable.DuringWorkshopIII,aparticipantarguedthatthefloodingandwaterqualityissuesattheLake’sedgecouldnotbeaddressedwithoutalsopayingattentiontolanduseandstormwateractivitiesintheheadwaters.Unintendedbenefitsincludepublicgreenspace,healthystreamsandwetlands,reducederosion,improvedsoilhealth,andimprovedpublichealthandsafety.Barriers
• Lackofpoliticalwilltoexpandcoverage,strengthenand/orenforcestormwaterregulations• Neednewandimprovedengineeringtechnologyandstandards• Needtoupdatebestmanagementpracticesandregulations• Needmorefundingforimprovingongoinglong-termmanagementoversightand
implementation• PoliticsaredrivenbydownstateNewYork• Zoninglawswhichallowbuildinginhighriskareas
PotentialSolutions
• Educationandoutreachprogramsforthepublicaswellasspecificstakeholdergroups• Publicandprivatepartnershipstocreateimprovedstandardsandpractices• Createstormwatermanagementpartnershipsbetweenlakefrontpropertyownersandup-
streamfarmersfacilitatedbyactionfromtowns,countiesandothermunicipalitiesinordertobettermanageandinvestinwatermanagementand/orstormwatercontrols
• Researchrelatedtothepractices• Useinter-municipalagreementsonlargerscaleandmoveresourcesupanddownstreamto
investinsolvingproblemsonawatershedbasis• Increasefundingforcommunitygroups,watershedgroups,countyenvironmentalmanagement
councils,waterqualitycoordinatingcouncils,etc.toimplementon-the-groundwaterqualityprojects
RecommendedAction#3:Considerappropriateallocationandvaluationofcleanwaterresourcesthroughoutthebasin.DiscussionComprehensivewaterusepolicyisneeded.ExistingregulatorywaterwithdrawalprogramsareactiveinNewYorkbutonlyforsystemswhichhavethecapacitytoextract100,000gallonsperday
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ormore.Localgovernmentsshouldconsiderchargingforthetruecostofcleanwater.Ifgovernmentsand/orbusinessesmoveclosertovaluingwaterattruecostrates,watermanagementmayimprove.Barriers
• Lackofwatershedgroupsadvocatingforthepractice• Waterisnotpricedsoastoreflectthetruecostofmaintainingapotable,sustainablesupply• Noseverancetaximposedonwaterasonothernaturalresources(oil,gas,etc.)• Lackofpoliticalwill• Needtoprotectthepolitically/economicallydisadvantaged
PotentialSolutions
• Educationandoutreachtothepublicandtargetedstakeholdergroups• Learnfromtrendsinourhistoricuse• Semanticsofhownewallocationruleswouldbepresented• Researchontherealcostsofprovidingcleanwater• Encouragepublicprivatepartnershipsandcollaborations• Usecapitaluseplans• Protectwatersupply;moreemphasisonwaterconservation/use• Meterwater,includingbothpublicsuppliesandwells,tobetterunderstandusage• Taxchargeforuseandextractionoftheresource
RecommendedAction#4:Enhancewaterandenvironmentalqualitymonitoringprogramsforwaterwaysthroughimprovedcollaborationandpublicinvolvement.DiscussionMonitoringisrecognizedasacriticalelementforsuccessfulpreparation,planningandadaptationtoclimatechange.However,monitoringprogramsareunderfundedandneedtobeimprovedbyextensivenetworking.Monitoringeffortsshouldbecomprehensive,coveringmanypartsofthewatershed.Thisitemwasprioritizedatthefollow-upworkshops.Barriers
• Capacityoftheactivity(whethergovernment,academicorvolunteermonitoring)• Fundingavailabilityfortheactivity• Needtosynthesizedataandidentifywhereprogramsaremostneededsothateffortsarenot
duplicatedPotentialSolutions
• Governmentshouldpartnerwithschoolsandstudentconservationgroupstoexpandcapacityandcoverage
• Expandcapacity,outreach,andsupportforexistingpublic/privatecollaborativeeffortssuchasCSLAPandWAVE
• Enhancedvolunteerprograms(includingK-12)withproperqualityassurance/qualitycontrolprocedures
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Infrastructure(Transportation,Wastewater,Drinkingwater,Stormwater)RecommendedAction#5:Defineandprioritizeneededinfrastructureupgradesandimprovementsformaintainingorenhancingwaterquality,including(wherepossible)movingcriticaldrinking,wastewater,andtransportationinfrastructureoutoffloodplains.
DiscussionThisactionaddressesamonumentaltaskofassessing,prioritizingandupgrading(orevenrelocating)infrastructurewhichsupportsourtransportationsystemaswellaswatermanagementsystems.Muchofourtransportationnetworkincludesextensive,minimallymanagedroadsideditchnetworksandculvertswhicharenowundersizedduetochangesinupstreamlanduseaswellaschangesinfrequencyandintensityofseverestormevents.Insomeinstances,theincreaseduseofgreeninfrastructurecanassistinsomewatermanagementissues.Thisrecommendationalsoaddresseswastewatertreatmentplants,septicsystems,therepairofallaginginfrastructure,anddealingwithleaksinallofthesesystems.Theconstructionandmaintenanceofstormwatercontrol/preventionsystems,improvementofpublictransportation,andrelocationofwastewatertreatmentanddrinkingwaterplantsoutoffloodplainscouldbeincludedinthisaction.Anunintendedbenefitisefficiencyandbenefitstogreenenvironments.DuringWorkshopIIItheexpenseofinfrastructurerelocationwasstressedasanissueandapotentialsolutionwasnotedastheimplementationofbermsandotherphysicalpracticestoprotectexistinginfrastructureinvulnerablelocations.Barriers
• Lackofconsensusonhowtoprioritizeneedswithinandbetweenthesectors• Fundingforinfrastructureimprovements• Technicalexpertiseandfundingislackingforinspectionandengineering• Differencesinmanagementduetohomerulemaydiscourageprioritizationandefficiencies• Nostatelevelcoordination
PotentialSolutions
• Educatethepublicandfacilitatecross-municipalboundarydiscussions• Provideeconomicanalysesondifferentscalestoassistdecision-makers• Enactgrowthboundaries• Increaseconnectionswithschools,vocationaltech• Createjobs,labor• Developwaterdistricts• Improveinspectionandmaintenanceoperations• Developincentivesforinter-municipalcooperationinwatershedmanagement• Encourageserviceagreementsamonglocalgovernmentsandpoolresourcesaccordingly• Developusesforwastewater• RealignFEMAreimbursementforreplacementcosts(astheexistingprogramsdonotallowfor
improvementjustreplacement)RecommendedAction#6:Sitealltypesofinfrastructure(drinkingwater,wastewater,transportation)inordertopromotesustainablecommunitygrowth.DiscussionThisrecommendationurgesgovernmentstoplaninfrastructureforgrowthsuchthatpublicinfrastructure(suchaswaterandsewer)areprovidedinareastargetedforgrowththusavoiding
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inadvertentbuildingboomsduetotheprovisionofpublicservices.Proactiveplanningwouldprepareforinfrastructureexpansionaheadofgrowth.Thiswouldallowinfrastructuretobeproperlyupdatedasitisbuiltandimproved,removingtheneedforcostlyexpansionsinthefuture.Thoughtfuldecisionscanbemaderegardinglocationsastoavoidbuildinginvulnerableareas.Barriers
• Lackofdata(water,population,androadconditions)• Lackofflexiblepolicies• Reactivepolicies• Homerulepreventsconsideringgrowthplansacrossgovernments• Lackoflocalcontractorswithexperienceingreeninfrastructuretechnology
PotentialSolutions
• Improvedatamanagement• Developproactiveandflexiblepolicies• Encourageregional/metropolitaninter-municipalcooperationandcollaboration
RecommendedAction#7:Developdesignstandardsandalternatesystemsspecificationforgreeninfrastructure,alternatetransportationmodes,alternativeusesandtreatmentofwastewaterandotheralternativeformsofinfrastructure.DiscussionCarefulconsiderationforalternativeusesofwastewaterareneeded.Thisactionincludestheneedfornewandfrequentlyupdateddesigncriteria,proactivegrowthmanagementandplanning(prepareinfrastructureandlanduseinadvanceofpopulationboom),openspaceplanning,selectiveuseoftollroadsandmasstransitalternatives.Unintendedbenefitsaremoreefficient,fasterfixesandapossibledecreaseintaxes.OncereviewedduringWorkshopIII,morebasicrecommendationswereaddedsuchassepticsystemmaintenanceandinspections,enforcementofexistingandnewstandardsaswellasreducingcombinedandsanitaryseweroverflow,andconnectingcommunitiesthroughgreenways.Barriers
• Lackofengineeringknowledge• Lackofstandardsandspecifications• Funding
PotentialSolutions
• Requirecontractorstolearnaboutgreeninfrastructureaspartoflicensingandcertifications• Givebusinessesincentivesforinstallinggreeninfrastructure• Consideradding“energy”infrastructure(couldprovidefuturesavings)
LandUsePlanning,ZoningandGovernanceRecommendedAction#8:Encourageandpromotetheuseofopenspaceforwaterrechargeandstorage.Discussion:Thisrecommendationpromoteslanduseplanningandzoningwhichkeepswateronthelandscapeandpromotesthecreationandprotectionofopenspace,greenspace,andforestareasto
15
protectwaterqualityandeaseflooding,increaseswaterinfiltrationandgroundwaterstorage,andincreaseswatershedreforestation.Thiscouldbeaccomplishedthroughcreatingspecialmanagementareastoprotect/maintainwetlandsandstreamcorridorsandreturnfloodplainstonaturalconditions.Thisissuewasprioritizedatthefollow-upworkshops.Unintendedbenefitsareerosioncontrol,lessrunoff,moregreenspace,moreinfiltration,reductioninpropertydamageandanincreaseinpublicsafety.Barriers
• Reluctancetochange• Needatimelineforshiftoflandscapetoopenspace• Landownerrightsandperceptionsofthesefacilities• Lackofpoliticalwilltorequireopenspace• Lackoffunding
PotentialSolutions
• Education,outreach,andcollaboration• Createfinancialincentivesthroughtaxesorgrants• Buildflexibilityintoregulatoryprocesses• Morelandbankingordevelopmentrightsprograms
RecommendedAction#9:Revitalizetheurbancoretoconcentratethepopulationandreduceinfrastructurecost.DiscussionThisactionincludesencouragingdevelopment/redevelopmentinexistingurbanareas,makingtheurbancorebetter,notjustcitiesbutalsohamletsandvillages.Thiswillreduceinfrastructuremaintenanceandreduceinfrastructureneedsfornewerdevelopmentinruralareas.Barriers
• Continueddevelopmentofnew“bedroom”communities• Needjobsintheurbanareas• Culturalbarriers• Imbalanceofpoliticalwill
PotentialSolutions
• Beginbybringingthosewithlimitedmobility,suchastheelderly,andbuildademandforhumanservices(retail,medical,dental)intheurbancore
• AllowfordenserpopulationsinhamletsRecommendedAction#10:Discourageandphaseoutdevelopmentinareasvulnerabletoflooding.DiscussionThisincludesbetterlocalplanningandfloodplainmanagementthatdiscouragesdevelopmentinfloodproneareaswhilemaintainingnaturalflowregimesofriversandstreamsandreducingrisk.Unintendedbenefitsareflourishingfishandwildlife,improvedbiogeochemicalprocesses,andreconnectinghumanswithnature.
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Barriers • Currentzoninglawsdonotadequatelypreventdevelopmentinfloodplains• Propertyrightsadvocatesmayopposeanymovementtorestrictdevelopmentrights,evenfor
legitimatepublichealthandsafetyandenvironmentalreasons• Inabilityofpropertyownerstomove• Propertytaxissues• Existingpublicinfrastructure,includingroadstotheseproperties• Lackoffundingtomovepeopleoutofthoseareas• Psychologicalunwillingnesstomove• Subsidedfloodinsurancesupportslivinginareasinhighriskofflooding
PotentialSolutions
• Reassesspropertyvalueswithrisksinmind• Improvezoninglawstoreducedevelopmentinfloodplainsanddiscouragefuturedevelopment• Uselandtrustsandeasementprogramstopreventdevelopmentorredevelopment• StrengthenFEMAcommunityratingsystem(educationandfundstomove)• Useaphasedapproach(nonewbuildings)topreventingnewdevelopmentandthencurtailing
redevelopment• Increaseinsuranceratestodissuadeadditionalbuilding• Encouragelandswapsbecauseoftrueregionalplanning• Usetaxincentivestogetpeopleoutofhighriskareas
RecommendedAction#11:Promoteappropriateuseofbrownfieldsandrestorationwherepossibleinordertoimprovetheenvironmentandtheeconomy.DiscussionTheuseofbrownfieldsnotonlycleansuptheimmediatearea,improvingthelocalenvironmentandpotentiallyreducingcontaminantsinrunoff,butalsoallowsotherspacetoremainundeveloped,green,andopen.Thecleanupandredevelopmentofbrownfieldscreatesjobsandmayincreasenearbypropertyvalues.Barriers
• Facilitatinginfrastructureisnotready• Group’slackofknowledge• Funding
PotentialSolutions
• GrantsandlowinterestloansavailablefromEPA’sBrownfieldsprogram• TechnicalassistanceandjobtrainingfromEPA’sBrownfieldsprogram
RecommendedAction#12:Mitigateimpactsofclimatechangeonvulnerablepopulationsbyprovidingadditionaltransportation,infrastructure,andeducationresourcesforthesegroups.DiscussionClimatechangedisproportionatelyaffectselderly,young,sick,disabled,andlow-incomepeople.Thesepopulationsneedeasilyaccessibleassistancefromsocialservicedepartments.Sustainablecommunitiescanbesupportedbyagriculturallandandcommunitycooperation.Freeand
17
reliablepublictransportationcanprovideaccesstojobs,schools,andmedicalservicesforthosewhocannotaffordtheirowntransportationorwhoareunabletodrive.Thisalsotiesintothetransportationrecommendationofalternatetransportationmodes;betterpublictransportationwillbenefitthecommunityasawhole.Educationandtrainingforexistingjobscancreateneededemployeesforupdatinginfrastructure.Barriers
• Funding• Lackofcoordinationofcommunityandgovernmentprograms
PotentialSolutions
• Bonds,grants• Educationandoutreach• IncreaseresourcestoDepartmentofSocialServicesOfficeoftheAging,emergingtechnology
andmedicalservices• CreatepartnershipsamongDSSprogramsanddepartments• Designsustainablecommunities
RecommendedAction#13:PlanningandzoningshouldincorporateprinciplesofEcosystemBasedManagement.DiscussionWatershed,wildlifeandotherhabitats,sourcewaterprotectionareas,andothernaturalboundarieswouldbeusedasabaselinefordevelopingplanningandzoningrules.Ecosystemservices(AKAsocietalbenefitsfromhealthyenvironments)suchasbiodiversity,waterquality,floodcontrol,waterretention,soilconservation,erosioncontrol,etc.wouldbeusedindecision-makingatthelocallevelforplanningandzoning.Somecommunitiesalreadyusethesecriteriatoscoredevelopment(naturalcapitalscore)duringtheirapprovalprocesses.Thisadditionalrecommendationfromthefollow-upworkshopwassharedbyseveralattendees.Inaddition,StateParkDepartmentcandemonstratevariouspracticesonpubliclandswhichwillachievethesegoalsinordertoprovethattheconceptswork.Inaddition,landcanbeconservedthroughhavingworkingforestconservationeasementson“smaller”privatewoodlots.Barriers
• Existingassumptionsinplanningmaypreventthisapproach• Naturalfeaturesmaynotalignwithmunicipalboundaries
PotentialSolutions• Considerregionalapproachestogovernance• UsemoreofaCouncilofGovernmentsapproach
Water-DependentBusinesses(Agriculture,Tourism,RecreationalBoating&Fishing)RecommendedAction#14:Integrateagriculturalpracticeswithenergyproduction(suchasbiomassenergy).DiscussionTheagriculturalindustryhasahistoryincreatingvalue-addedproducts.Newtechnologiesinthesectoralreadyexist,suchasbiofuels.Investmentinthecreationofevenmoretechnologieswhich
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createmultiplebenefits,especiallyfromwastes,willmakethewatershedmoreresilientinthefuture.Bettermanagementofagriculturalwastesfromlargerdairieswillreducewaterqualityrisksandimproveaesthetics(reducenutrientrunoffandassociatedimpactssuchanuisanceand/orharmfulalgalblooms).Barriers
• Costofconstruction• Lackofproventechnology• Accessibilitytofinancingandtechnology• Licensingofnewfacilities• Decommissioningofexistingfacilities
PotentialSolutions
• Needagriculturalandelectricalengineeringexpertise• UseBOCESinstructorsandstudentstotrainonnewtechnology• Incomefrompotentialwaterandenergysavingsandenergygeneration• Providefarmerswithincentivestoimplementbestpractices
RecommendedAction#15:Promoteresearchanddevelopmentofnewagriculturaltechnologiesaswellasnewindustriesandjobsrelatedtothesetechnologies.DiscussionThisactionincludespromotingresearchanddevelopment,updatingbestmanagementpractices,reducingimpactsontheenvironment,andcreatingeconomicbenefitfromfarm-wasteandbiomassenergyprojects.Therecommendedactionsupportsanincreasedfocusontechnologydevelopmentrelatedtoagriculture.Investinginresearchanddevelopmentfornewtechnologieswhichwouldprovidefarmerswithevidence-basedinformationthatnewapproachesarebeneficialandcosteffective.Inaddition,theresearchfindingsshouldbedemonstratedinthefield.Demonstrationprojectsshowinghowpotentialnewcropsandcrop-relatedtechnologiesworkwouldprovidegrowerswithprovenmodelssuitableforchanginggrowingconditions.Unintendedbenefitsofthisactivityaremoreefficientuseoflandandenergy,increaseinjobsandchangeinjobstructuretomoreeconomicallyviablejobs.Barriers
• Fundinglimitedforresearchandstart-upbusinesses• Comfortandperceivedreducedriskincontinuingtousetestedtechniquesandpractices
PotentialSolutions
• Costsharingofnewimplementationpractices(example:Methanedigestersonlivestockmanure,biomassenergy,moreclimateresistantcrops)
• Usepublicand/orprivatefundingfornewtechnologyresearchand/ordemonstrationprojects• Educationandoutreachforthepublicalongwithcollaborationwithpublicandprivatesectors• Regulatoryreformtoallowfornewpractices• AmendFarmBilltomeetsustainablefarmingneedsthroughnewtechnologiesandpractices
RecommendedAction#16:Considerencouraginggreenhouseproductionofagriculturalproductstoexpandindustry.
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DiscussionEvenindrytimes,ourregionwilllikelyhavemorewaterthanotherpartsofthecountry.Enhancingcontrolledenvironmentalagriculture(greenhouses)canmaintainagriculturalproductionintheregionandaugmentproductionofsomecrops.AsplaceslikeCaliforniaexperiencemoredroughtsandhaveareducedcapacitytoproducecropssuchastomatoesandspinach,NewYorkcanbenefitbyutilizinggreenhousestogrowthesetypesofcropsirrespectiveoftheseason.Barriers
• Fewloansavailableforthispractice• Researchneededonbestpracticesandsustainabletypesofstructuresforourarea(heavy
snowfalls,frequentcloudcover);energyintensive• Shiftsinclimate(increasedintemperatures)mayreducetheneed
PotentialSolutions
• Governmentprogramsforloans• Educationandoutreach• Federalandstatecost-shareandgrants• Relyonourclimatologistsforpredictingshiftsinclimate
RecommendedAction#17:Enhanceresiliencyofrecreationandtourismindustriesbyplanningforincreasedclimatevariability.DiscussionWarmertemperaturewillleadtoachangeinicecover,snowversusrain,andwarmerwatertemperatures.Icefishingandsnowsportsmaygivewaytolongerfishingandboatingseasons.Existingrecreationandtourismbusinesseswillneedtoprepareforthesechanges.Increasedrecreationopportunitiessuitabletobothwetanddryconditionswillhelpmaintainahealthyeconomicenvironmentaslongasweensurepublicaccesstowater.Focusingonenvironmentally-basedtourismsimultaneouslyincreaseseconomicvitalityandfostersmoreresilientlandscapes.ThisrecommendationalsocouldsupportanewNationalMarineSanctuaryfortheLake.Barrier
• FundingforindustrypromotionPotentialSolutions
• Raisefundsforinvestmentthroughsellingthewater• Makeconnectionswithcommunityleaders• Incomefromtourism• Increaseuseofunder-utilizedbywayssuchas(Seawaytrail,N.Adirondacks,Olympicandblack
rivermaple)asamethodtoincreasetourismRecommendedAction#18:Supportfisheriesmonitoringandresearchtoprovideinformationtoguidestockingdecisionsinachangingclimate.DiscussionClimatechange,especiallyincreasesintemperatureandchangesinprecipitationpatterns,mayimpactwhichfishspeciesorstrainsarebestsuitedtoliveandbreedinLakeOntario.Continued
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(andimproved)supportoffisheriesmonitoringandresearchisneededtoprovidereliableinformationforresponsivemanagementdecisionsregardingfishstockinginachangingclimate.Barriers
• Fundsforresearch• Newequipmentforhatcheriestoraisedifferentspecies
PotentialSolutions
• Protectandenhancein-lakeandspawninghabitatsformultiplespecies,andencouragenatural(wild)reproductionofsportfish.
• Diversifypreyfishandsportfishpopulationsbysupportingrestorationofnativespecies.EcosystemManagementRecommendedAction#19:Restoreandprotectstreamsandwetlandsthroughoutthebasin.DiscussionRestoringthehydrologyofthebasinwillhelpintimesofdroughtorflooding.Therecommendationcallsforprotecting,enhancing,andrestoringthenaturalhydrologicregimeofstreams,lakes,wetlands,riparianbuffers,uplandareasofwatersheds,andotherareastorestorehydrology.Unintendedbenefitsofimplementingthisactioncouldbeimprovedfishandwildlifehabitat,reducedalgalblooms,increasedcommunityresilience,improvedresidentqualityoflife,improvedbiogeochemicalprocesses,reducedmosquitopopulationsandrelateddisease,andincreasedreconnectionofhumanswiththeirnaturalenvironment.Barriers
• Expense,limitedfunds• Propertyownersmaynotsupportrestorationorprotectionmeasures• Zoningmayencouragelossordegradationofthesefeatures• Publicresistance/perceptiontochangesinthewetlandsandstreamcorridors• Lackofcurrentregulationfortheamountofwaterextractedfromgroundwaterwhichfeeds
streamsandwetlandsPotentialSolutions
• Educationandgrassrootssupport• Increaseunderstandingofthelinkbetweenhealthystreamsandwetlandsandarobust
economy• Economicanalysesmayshowbenefits• Monitorandinventorycurrentwatershedresources• Determinevalueofnaturalresources• Provideincentivesforhomeowners/privatepropertyownersforprotectingthesefeatures
throughdevelopingaprogramthatpaysforecosystemservices• Watershed-basedgovernancewouldprotectthesefeatures
RecommendedAction#20:Createandenhancesystemsforearlydetectionandresponsetonewinvasivespecies(pest,plant,animalandaquatic).
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DiscussionInvasivespecieshavethreatenedourcoastal,riparian,wetland,andlakefoodwebresourcesandthesespeciesinvasionsarelikelytoincrease.Currently,invasivespeciescosttheGreatLakesregionmillionsofdollarsannually.Proactiveresponsesneedtobetakentodevelopcomprehensivemonitoringprogramsfornewinvasivespecies.Barriers
• Informationgapsregardingpotentialinvadersandchangesintheenvironment• Publicdistrustorlackofbeliefinscience
PotentialSolutions
• EnhancePartnershipforRegionalInvasiveSpeciesManagement(PRISM)capacity• Redefine“whatisinvasive”giventhepotentialchangesintheenvironment• Increaseoutreachtopeoplewhoareinjobsandenjoyrecreationalpursuitsthatplacethemin
habitatslikelytoharbornewinvasivespeciesRecommendedAction#21:Increaseearlydetectionofhumanandanimalpathogens(newones,andincreasesinoccurrenceofexistingones)thatassociatedwithwater-relatedvectors.DiscussionAswithinvasivespecies,newandexistingpathogensmayfindthattheincreasingtemperaturesandassociatedecologicalchangesduetoclimatechangemakethebasinahospitablehabitat.Theapproachshouldbesimilartoinvasivespecies:improvedandmorecomprehensivemonitoringanddetectiontechnology.Also,improvedaccesstohealthcarewillassistinidentifyingpotentialillnessesfromthesenewpathogens.Barriers
• Lackofcapacity(funds,technology,andtrainedstaff)• Lackofmonitoringanddiagnosticdesigns• Potentialnewpathogensarecurrentlyunknownthreats
PotentialSolutions
• Investintechnologytodetectnewpathogens• Improvenaturalresourcemanagers’connectionstoresearchersandmedicalcommunity• Improveconnectiontoplaceswheretheyalreadylivewiththeseissues• Willingnesstoimplementrecommendations(outreach)• Studyfishdisease(tobetterunderstandhowthesepathogensspreadandhowtheycanbe
treated)
PotentialNextStepsThepurposeofthisreporttoinformLakeandWatershedManagersandPlannersabouttheaboverecommendationactionthatcanbetakennowtoprepareforuncertaintiesrelatedtotheneedforclimatechangeadaptationfromtheperspectivesofthosewhowork,liveandplayintheLakeOntariobasin.Therecommendationsweregeneratedbydiversestakeholdergroupsusingasaresourceonlythefourpotentialfuturescenariosdifferentiatedbydifferentextremeprecipitationandpopulation
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growthpatterns.Therecommendationsarepowerfulbecausetheyarewin-winsolutionsthatmaximizeresiliencetoawiderangeofconditionsandfuturesandbecausetheyaregeneratedinaroomofdiversestakeholders.Theseactionsandideasaredesignedtobeusedwhenengagingthepublicinotherplanningprocesses(localorregional)asyouseektoincludeclimatechangeprovisionsinnewandexistingplans.Manyoftherecommendationshavebenefitsbeyondthoseassociatedwithclimatechangeandthusmayalreadybepresentinyourplanning.Ideasforpresentingtheserecommendationsareasfollows.FactSheetsThesecompiledrecommendations,barriersandsolutionscouldbethebasisforfactsheetsproducedtofullydescribeeachpractice,theexistingregulatoryorvoluntaryimplementationmechanisms,existingfundingsources,otherbenefitsandcostsofimplementationaswellasothertypesoftrade-offsnecessarytotakeaspecificaction.Byusingsuchfactsheetsinaplanningprocess,allparticipantscanbebroughttothesamelevelofunderstandingonvariousissues.LocalScenarioPlanningTheprocessusedtogeneratetheserecommendationscouldbeusedonatasmallerwatershedscaleand/oroverashorterperiodoftimewithaconsistentgroupofdiversestakeholdersinordertorefineandtailortherecommendationsbasedonlocalknowledgeofwatermanagementpractices,infrastructureissuesandconcerns,businessclimate,ecosystembenefitsandconcernsaswellasothermorespecificandlocalbarrierstoimplementation.Thisprocesswouldbebestrunwithlocalexpertsinplanning,policy,naturalsciencesandeconomicsparticipatingaswell.“Strawman”Analternateusecouldbetosimplypresenttheserecommendationsalongwithinformationofhowtheyweregeneratedinordertostartadiscussionofhowamorelocalizedorlake-basedplanningprocesscouldincorporatetheseideas.Thus,therecommendationswouldserveasastartingpoint.
ConclusionPublicandstakeholderengagementinplanningisimportantfordevelopingasenseofownershipinaplanandforincreasingthelikelihoodofitsimplementation.ParticularlyinahomerulestatesuchasNewYork,manyoftherecommendedactionspresentedaremostappropriatelyimplementedatthelocalscale.Publicandstakeholdersupportisimportantingeneratingthepoliticalwillforpolicychange.ItishopedthatthisreportwillbeusedtostartdialogsandexpandthinkingabouthowplanningforclimatechangeshouldoccurintheLakeOntariobasinandhowplanningunderhighuncertaintycanadvance.
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ReferencesDinse,K.,J.Read,andD.Scavia.2009.PreparingforClimateChangeintheGreatLakesRegion.[MICHU
09-103]AnnArbor,MI:MichiganSeaGrantKunkel,K.E.,L.E.Stevens,S.E.Stevens,L.Sun,E.Janssen,D.Wuebbles,J.Rennells,A.DeGaetano,and
J.G.Dobson,2013:RegionalClimateTrendsandScenariosfortheU.S.NationalAssessment,Part1.ClimateoftheNortheastU.S.,NOAATechnicalReportNESDIS142-1,80pp.
GreatLakesCoastalResilience,cited2015:GLCRPlanningGuide-CaseStudies.[Availableonlineat
www.greatlakesresilience.org/case-studies.]
Hayhoe,K.,C.Wake,B.Anderson,X.Liang,E.Maurer,J.Zhu,J.Bradbury,A.DeGaetano,A.M.Stoner,
andD.Wuebbles,2008.RegionalclimatechangeprojectionsfortheNortheastUSA,MitigAdaptStratGlobChange13:425–436.
MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,cited2015:EcosystemsandHumanWell-Being[Availableonlineat
http://www.unep.org/maweb/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf.]
Nelson,D.,H.Elmer,R.Held,D.Forsythe,andS.Casey,2011:LaurentianGreatLakesBasinClimateChangeAdaptation.NOAATechnicalMemorandumGLERL-153,43pp.
Peterson,G.D.,G.S.CummingandS.R.Carpenter,2003.ScenarioPlanning:aToolforConservationinanUncertainWorld,17(2)ConservationBiology358-366.
Wack,Pierre.1985.Scenarios:UnchartedWatersAhead,HarvardBusinessReviewSept-Oct73-89.Walker,B.,CarpenterS.,Anderies,J.,Abel,N.,Cumming,G.,Janssen,M.,Lebel,L.,Norberg,J.,Peterson,
G.D.,Pritchard,R.2002.2.Resiliencemanagementinsocial-ecologicalsystems:aworkinghypothesisforaparticipatoryapproach.ConservationEcology6(1):14.[Availableonlineathttp://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss1/art14]
WesternUniversity,cited2015:GreatLakesFuturesProject.[Availableonlineathttp://uwo.ca/biology/glfp]
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Appendices
AppendixA………………………………………………………………………………………….Page25FourScenariosAppendixB……………………………………………………………………………………………Page29Summaryof“Win-Win”Recommendations
IMPACTED SECTOR
Precipitation Driver (Increased Drought)
Temperature Driver (Warmer Air
Temperatures)
Population Driver (Slow Growth)
Land• Surface soils dry out• Exposed shorelines• Decreased property values from aesthetic changes to lakeshore
• Longer growing season • Slow conversion of land use
Water/Lakes• Lake levels fall• Reduced stream flows• Wetlands dry out
• Warmer lake waters • Less ice cover • More evaporation
• Increased contamination of raw water sources from agricultural sector• Greater irrigation demands
Ecosystem
• Loss of lake and wetland habitat• Fewer fish spawning sites• Increased risk of fire• Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
• Fewer cold refugia • Fewer cold water fish species • Increase in southern invasive species • Lower lake oxygen
• More agricultural pollutants • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
Human
• Greater water• use demands/diminished well water supplies• Increased need for water quality management• Increased need for drought planning and water conservation policy• Higher irrigation costs• Economic stress (i.e., crop losses, lake/shoreline industry losses, etc)• Increased risk of fire
• Increased health risks from extreme heat events • Increased urban heat island effects • Increased risk of dangers and damages from freezing rain events
• More agricultural pollution treatment needed
Drier, Slow-Growth Population
Climate Scenario Details
Population Scenario Details
• Warming temperatures (especially winter)• More intense short (seasonal) and long-term (multi-year) droughts• Less snowpack contributes to summer drought
• Slower economic growth and fewer business opportunities
• Increased nuclear energy
land use economy
• Compared to other U.S. states, NY experience slower population growth
• Increased dairy production and water allocation to dairy
drier
Boatless Ontario
IMPACTED SECTOR
Precipitation Driver (Increased Precipitation)
Temperature Driver (Warmer Air
Temperatures)
Population Driver (Slow Growth)
Land
• More stormwater runoff• Lakeshore/river flooding• Increased scour, erosion• Increased gully formation• Increased sediments• Increased property damage from floods• Restricted building in flood prone areas
• Longer growing season • Slow conversion of land use
Water/Lakes• Lake levels rise• More stream flooding• Erosive wave activity
• Warmer lake waters • Less ice cover • More evaporation
• Increased contamination of raw water sources from agricultural sector• Greater irrigation demands
Ecosystem • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
• Lower lake oxygen• Fewer cold refugia• Fewer cold water fish species• Increase in southern invasive species
• More agricultural pollutants • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
Human
• Sewer overflows• Increased need for water and water quality management• Possible resizing of culverts• Flood damage to infrastructure• Risk of increased waterborne illnesses, and injury/death from flooding• Higher flood mitigation and insurance costs
• Increased health risks from extreme heat events • Increased urban heat island effects • Increased risk of dangers and damages from freezing rain events
• More agricultural pollution treatment needed
Wetter, Slow-Growth Population
Climate Scenario Details
Population Scenario Details
• Northeast is wetter but this isn’t evenly distributed by season or event• Warming temperatures (especially winter)• Extreme precipitation events more frequent• More winter precipitation• More precipitation is projected to fall as rain rather than snow
• Struggling alternative energy market and economy
• Political stagnancy and inflexibility
wetter
land use economy
• Compared to other U.S. states, NY experience slower population growth
• Increased unsustainable plant based biofiuel and animal based agriculture
Raging Runoff
IMPACTED SECTOR
Precipitation Driver (Increased Drought)
Temperature Driver (Warmer Air Temperatures)
Population Driver (High Population)
Land• Surface soils dry out • Exposed shorelines • Decreased property values from aesthetic changes to lakeshore
• Longer growing season • More impervious land cover
Water/Lakes• Lake levels fall • Reduced stream flows • Wetlands dry out
• Warmer lake waters • Less ice cover • More evaporation
• Greater water use, demands • More stormwater runoff
Ecosystem
• Loss of lake and wetland habitat • Fewer fish spawning sites • Increased risk of fire • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
• Fewer cold refugia • Fewer cold water fish species • Increase in southern invasive species • Lower lake oxygen
• More agricultural pollutants • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) • Increased damage from industrial pollutants
Human
• Greater water use demands/diminished well water supplies • Increased need for water quality management • Increased need for drought planning and water conservation policy • Economic stress (i.e., crop losses, lake/shoreline industry losses, etc) • Increased risk of fire
• Increased health risks from extreme heat events • Increased urban heat island effects • Increased risk of dangers and damages from freezing rain events
• Increased wastewater treatment and disposal needs • Floodplain/shoreline communities at risk from higher water levels
Drier, Increased Population
Climate Scenario Details
Population Scenario Details
• Warming temperatures (especially winter)• More intense short (seasonal) and long-term (multi-year) droughts• Less snowpack contributes to summer drought
• Technology advances have left immigrant and low-wage workers unemployed
• Federal/state stimulus programs in action• Shift from historic sportfishing boats to
smaller/lighter vessels• Increased tourism• New energy extraction methods
drier
land use economy
• Rapid population growth in NY and Ontario
• Increased crime
• Increased conversion of land for urban sprawl and mega farms (with increased water recycling)
Crowded Beaches
IMPACTED SECTOR
Precipitation Driver (Increased Precipitation)
Temperature Driver (Warmer Air Temperatures)
Population Driver (High Population)
Land
• More stormwater runoff• Lakeshore/river flooding• Increased scour, erosion• Increased gully formation• Increased sediments
• Longer growing season • More impervious land cover
Water/Lakes• Lake levels rise• More stream flooding• Erosive wave activity
• Warmer lake waters • Less ice cover • More evaporation
• Greater water use, demands • More stormwater runoff
Ecosystem • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
• Fewer cold refugia • Fewer cold water fish species • Increase in southern invasive species • Lower lake oxygen
• More agricultural pollutants • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) • Increased damage from industrial pollutants
Human
• Sewer overflows• Increased need for water/water quality management• Possible resizing of culverts• Flood damage to infrastructure • Risk of increased waterborne illnesses, and injury/death from flooding• Higher flood mitigation and insurance costs
• Increased health risks from extreme heat events • Increased urban heat island effects • Increased risk of dangers and damages from freezing rain events
• Increased wastewater treatment and disposal needs • Floodplain/shoreline communities at risk from higher water levels
Wetter, Increased Population
Climate Scenario Details
Population Scenario Details
• Northeast is wetter but this isn’t evenly distributed by season or event• Warming temperatures (especially winter)• Extreme precipitation events are more frequent• More winter precipitation• More precipitation is projected to fall as rain rather than snow
• Increased conversion of land for urban sprawl and agriculture
• Increased road/transportation/shipping development
• Agriculture shifts to wet adopted crops (i.e. rice)
wetter
land use economy
• Rapid population growth in NY and Ontario
• Increased alternative energy development
• Increased aquaculture offshore
Soggy Strip Malls