Using Data Mining to Predict Injuries:Using Data Mining to Predict Injuries:

A new model for injury prediction and preventionA new model for injury prediction and prevention

Steve Thompson, ARM, COSSSteve Thompson, ARM, COSSsthompson@aspenrmg.comsthompson@aspenrmg.com

Aspen Risk Management GroupAspen Risk Management Group

ERGOhealthyERGOhealthy

ASSE Member since 1989ASSE Member since 1989

2054

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PredictionPrediction

The way things will happen in the future

Large corporations invest heavily on possibleevents, risks and business opportunities

Prediction in business "... is at least two things –important and hard“

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Supernatural predictionSupernatural prediction

Paranormal or supernatural

Astrology and “occult” sciences

Not substantiated by controlledexperiments

One in 10 people in the world areconcerned that the world couldend in 2012 (Reuters poll)

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Paranormal or supernatural

Astrology and “occult” sciences

Not substantiated by controlledexperiments

One in 10 people in the world areconcerned that the world couldend in 2012 (Reuters poll)

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Temple of Apollo, DelphiTemple of Apollo, Delphi

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Priestess of DelphiPriestess of Delphi

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PrecogPrecog

NostradamusNostradamus

• 16th =century French “seer”

• Studied astrology and “occult”sciences

• Best known for The Prophecies

• Louis Pasteur

Nostradamus predictionsNostradamus predictions

• Atomic bomb

Nostradamus predictionsNostradamus predictions

• Hitler and World War II

Nostradamus predictionsNostradamus predictions

• Sept. 11, 2011

Nostradamus predictionsNostradamus predictions

• The end of the world

Nostradamus predictionsNostradamus predictions

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Edward Cayce (theEdward Cayce (the ““Sleeping ProphetSleeping Prophet””))

Two World Wars (start and end dates)

The economic crisis in 1929

Fall of communism and the collapse ofthe Soviet Union

Revival of Soviet Union to begin in 2010

Growth of political power in China

Global warming

Scientific predictionScientific prediction

In science a prediction is rigorous and quantitative

Computer models are frequently used to describethe past and future behavior of something

Accurate workplace injury prediction and forecastingis very difficult

In insurance an actuary uses a life table to “predict”life expectancy

““Life tableLife table””

Scientific predictionScientific prediction

Neptune was predicted by Sir IsaacNewton

Radio waves were predicted by JamesClerk Maxwell

Anti-matter was predicted by Paul Dirac

Old Farmer’s Almanac

Injury prediction studiesInjury prediction studies

Early prognostic factors for duration ontemporary total benefits in the first year amongworkers with compensated occupational softtissue injuries http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1740514/

Chronic musculoskeletal pain predictedhospitalization due to serious medical conditionsin a 10 year follow up study http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2474/11/127

Injury prediction studiesInjury prediction studies

Prediction of chronic disability in work-relatedmusculoskeletal disorders: a prospective,population-based study http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2474/5/14

Early predictors of chronic work disability: aprospective, population-based study of workerswith back injuries (ISSLS prize winner: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19050587)

Injury prediction studiesInjury prediction studies

Listening to injured workers: how recoveryexpectations predict outcomes--a prospectivestudy http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC99453/?tool=pubmed

Worker recovery expectations and fear-avoidancepredict work disability in a population-basedworkers' compensation back pain samplehttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16540874

Injury prediction studiesInjury prediction studies

Eight predictive factors associated with responsepatterns during physiotherapy for soft tissueshoulder disorders were identifiedhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16632137

High pain ratings predict treatment failure inchronic occupational musculoskeletal disordershttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16452743

Injury prediction studiesInjury prediction studies

Biopsychosocial multivariate predictive model ofoccupational low back disabilityhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12461399

Injury prediction studiesInjury prediction studies

Life values as predictors of pain, disability andsick leave among Swedish registered nurses: alongitudinal study http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21958331

Injury prediction studiesInjury prediction studies

A model for occupational injury risk assessmentof musculoskeletal discomfort and theirfrequencies in computer usershttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753510000822

Injury prediction studiesInjury prediction studies

Symptoms of stress predict musculoskeletaldisorders http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1052853/

Prediction todayPrediction today

Baby Gender

Future Height

Tornado, Hurricane, Weather

Earnings of a company (earnings per share)

“Your Future”

Predict Your Social Security Payout

How to predict Mitt Romney’s running mate

Computer predicts sports injuries (experimental)

Common safety and healthCommon safety and health ““predictorspredictors””

Gas detection devices

Health risk survey

Safety culture, and other safety and ergo surveys

Severity index (predictive analytics in workers’ comp)

Underwriters use predictive modeling to price risk

Peer behavior, and environmental observations

Pre and new hire orientation

Casualty prediction

Strains, sprains, and discomfortStrains, sprains, and discomfort

40% of WC costs = musculoskeletal disorders

Cisco and Accenture pilot studies (10,000 EEs)

Persistent discomfort - pulled off task 5 minutes outevery 15 minutes

Lost time/day/employee: 2.6 hours

Lost time/week/employee: 13 hours

62% decrease in reported discomfort

39% decrease in claims for ergonomic injuries

Minutes add upMinutes add up

13.3 hours/week x 4 weeks = 53.3 hours of lostproduction/employee/month

Cost of lost production for 1 employee:

$15/hr x 53.3 hours = $799.50/month

$25/hr x 53.3 hours = $1,332.50/month

$50/hr x 53.3 hours = $2,665/month

*(20 min. per hour) x (8 hours) x (5 days) x (4 weeks)

Pain and discomfort predicts productivity loss

Injury risk assessmentInjury risk assessment –– why not addwhy not add

Safety inspections

Safety audits

Incident investigations

Near misses

Review of preventative maintenance records

… and on and on...

Why notWhy not……

Fear of what’s “lurking beneath the surface”

Fear of cost to “fix”

Fear…

What to do with the information

What “bucket” does it fit in

Now what

No action, or poor planning – post data mining

Would youWould you……

Introduce process to determine culture andrisk levels

Explore with employees discomfort and risklevels to improve productivity and predictinjuries

Data-mine existing records – health, safety,workers’ compensation

Be prepared to “do something” about yourfindings

If you were wonderingIf you were wondering

Scientific date for the destruction of the planet

Unknown

Precisely because of human fallibility,extraordinary claims require

extraordinary evidence ~ Carl Sagan

Using Data Mining to Predict Injuries:Using Data Mining to Predict Injuries:

A new model for injury prediction and preventionA new model for injury prediction and prevention

Steve Thompson, ARM, COSSSteve Thompson, ARM, COSSsthompson@aspenrmg.comsthompson@aspenrmg.com

Aspen Risk Management GroupAspen Risk Management Group

ERGOhealthyERGOhealthy

ASSE Member since 1989ASSE Member since 1989

2054

Summary and QASummary and QA