Using biological data to test climate change refugia
Transcript of Using biological data to test climate change refugia
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Using biological data to test climate change refugia
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Toni Lyn Morelli
with SP Maher, SR Beissinger, C Moritz,
K Nydick, J Ebersole, C Daly, S Dobrowski, D Dulen,
L Eastman, A Flint, L Flint, ST Jackson, C Kastely, M Lim,
JD Lundquist, CI Millar, WB Monahan, KT Redmond,
S Sawyer, & S Stock
Using biological data to test climate change refugia
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Managing Climate Change Refugia
for Climate Adaptation
TL Morelli, SP Maher, K Nydick, J Ebersole,
WB Monahan, C Daly, S Dobrowski, D Dulen, ST Jackson, JD Lundquist, CI Millar, KT
Redmond, S Sawyer, S Stock, & SR Beissinger
Areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable persistence of valued resources
Morelli et al. In Review
PLOS ONE
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Morelli et al. In Review
PLOS ONE Inspired by the CSCC, Stein et al. 2014
Climate change refugia
conservation cycle
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Identify Climate Change Refugia
a) Target Refugial Processes
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Examples of the physical basis for climate refugia
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a) Target Refugial Processes
b) Model Stability Based on Recent or Future Climate
c) Locate Areas of High Resource Persistence or Diversity
Identify Climate Change Refugia
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Montane Meadows
• Botanically diverse
• Important to animal communities
• Critical to hydrological function
• Significant to recreation and economy
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U.S. Global Change Research Program
1991-2012 vs. 1901-1960
Observed U.S. Warming
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California Climate Tracker
Record California Warming
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Record California Drought
California Climate Tracker
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Mann & Gleick 2015 PNAS
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Modeling Climate Stability ~17,000 meadows
Fryjoff-Hung & Viers, 2012. http://meadows.ucdavis.edu/
Diff 1970-1999 & 1910-1939
PRISM ds to 270m
BCM (Flint et al. 2013)
Maher, Morelli et al. In Revision
climate.calcommons.org
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Steps for Managing
Climate Change Refugia
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Belding’s Ground Squirrel
(Urocitellus beldingi)
• Habitat specialist
• Highly detectable
• Group-living
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Grinnell Surveys (1900-1939)
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Persistent Sites = 43
Extirpated Sites = 31
Original Surveys: 1902-1966
Resurveys: 2003-2011
Detectability (p) > 0.995 for 2+ visits
42% Rate of Site Extirpations Across CA
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Testing the Climate Refugia Map ~17,000 meadows
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* All Sig at p <0.05 except SWE
Climate Refugia Predict Persistence
Morelli et al. In Review
Global Change Biology
Pro
port
ion o
f Sites
where
U. beld
ingi Pers
iste
d
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2-Samp Wilcox. Test
**p <0.001
***p <0.0001
Climate Refugia Predict Occupancy
***
(N = 18)
(N = 20)
2011
**
**
in
Min
imu
m T
emp
Δ
in
An
nu
al P
reci
p
Δ
in
Ap
ril S
WE
Δ
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Temperature correlates with Genetic Diversity
Modern Minimum Temperature (°C)
p = 0.002 R2adj = 0.66
Morelli et al. In Review
Global Change Biology
n = 124
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Morelli et al. In Review
PLOS ONE
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Morelli et al. 2012 Proc B
Persistence = Blue
n = 16 n = 18 n = 40
Modern Winter Temperature
p = 0.007
≤-4°C
Human modification
p = 0.036
>-4°C
Artificial Natural
- 1
- 0.8
- 0.6
- 0.4
- 0.2
- 0
Extirpation = Red
Pro
portio
n o
f Site
s
Where
U. b
eld
ingi P
ersist
Classification error rate (OOB estimate)
= 18.92%
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Anthropogenic Refugia?
1970s
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Thanks!
• Co-authors
• Funders
• NECSC colleagues
• Moritz Lab
• Beissinger Lab
• Michelle Koo
• Michelle Hershey
• Christina Kastely, Ilaria Mastroserio, Matt Pfannenstiel, & other field assistants
UC Davis Information Center for the Environment (ICE)
climate.calcommons.org northeastclimate.org
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