Using “Alternative Futures” to Assist Landscape ... · • Precipitation shifts can affect...
Transcript of Using “Alternative Futures” to Assist Landscape ... · • Precipitation shifts can affect...
Using “Alternative Futures” to Assist Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
Steve Traxler, FWS Michael Flaxman, MIT
Presentation to GEERJuly, 2010
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MIT Research Team
Dr. Michael FlaxmanDr. Juan Carlos Vargas
Christopher Horne Stephen Lloyd Vanessa Ng
Other Primary MIT Contributors:• Olivier Barreteau• Holly Moeller
• Allison Lassiter• Aaron Thom• Linda Ciesielski
• Gates Gooding• Kelsie Baker
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MIT Everglades Project Overview
•Research initiative developed by MIT and sponsored by FWS and USGS.
• Simulates the possible effects of climate change and population growth under different planning trajectories in South-Central Florida.
• Aims to identify the possible effects of a set of future trajectories of change on strategic habitat conservation (SHC) initiatives.
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Overview
What’s the Planning Problem?
What is Scenario Planning and Alternative Futures Planning?
What has the MIT Alternative Futures Project for Southern Florida Produced?
What Next Steps are Needed?
Why Might “Alt Futures Planning” be Appropriate for LCC Conservation Planning?
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The Major Challenges• Technical/Scientific
– Generating solid information at relevant scales
– Integrating across science project/disciplines
• Planning Process/Institutional Aspects– Accounting for
dynamic spatial processes with significant uncertainties in standard planning
– Integrating Fast-Moving Science into StandardDecision-making
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Drivers of Change Transcend Management Geographies
1. Current institutions were not designed to deal with rapid population or ecological change
2. Land / water / transportation / conservation currently managed by hundreds of organizations across So. Florida
3. Multiple Agencies, jurisdictions are not going away
4. We must develop effective ways of planning despitethese barriers
Area: 19.3 Million Acres
Protected: 23 Protected Areas
People: 15.3 Million Inhabitants
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The Downscaling Challenge
Adapted from: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/images/ipcc_scenario_prediction.gif
Need to Downscale IPCC Scenarios and Global Circulation Model to Regional Climate Models
This process in itself introduces significant uncertainty
But…we must proceed with best available estimates
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Climate Change Factors:
Temperature
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Range of Species XLittle shift in isotherms; minimal effects on temperature-dependent species
Constant CO2 - 2010 Constant CO2 - 2060
Annual Mean TemperatureFederal Reserve 2010 Average 2060 Const. CO2
Dry Tortugas National Park 25.1*C (77.3*F) 25.0*C (77.1*F)Canaveral National Seashore 22.2*C (72.0*F) 22.0*C (71.6*F)Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge 23.5*C (74.2*F) 23.3*C (74.0*F)Great White Heron National Wildlife Refuge 25.6*C (78.0*F) 25.4*C (77.8*F)
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Range of Species XTemperature-regulated species may shift out of existing reserves
Annual Mean TemperatureFederal Reserve 2010 Average 2060 – B1
Dry Tortugas National Park 25.1*C (77.3*F) 25.7*C (78.3*F)
Canaveral National Seashore 22.2*C (72.0*F) 22.9*C (73.3*F)
Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge 23.5*C (74.2*F) 24.0*C (75.2*F)
Great White Heron National Wildlife Refuge 25.6*C (78.0*F) 26.1*C (78.9*F)
Low Biophysical Impact/ Low Biophysical Impact/
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Range of Species XSpecies could migrate out of the Study Region
Annual Mean TemperatureFederal Reserve 2010 Average 2060 – A1B
Dry Tortugas National Park 25.1*C (77.3*F) 26.4*C (79.4*F)
Canaveral National Seashore 22.2*C (72.0*F) 23.6*C (74.5*F)
Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge 23.5*C (74.2*F) 24.7*C (76.5*F)
Great White Heron National Wildlife Refuge 25.6*C (78.0*F) 26.7*C (80.1*F)
Medium Biophysical Impact/ Medium Biophysical Impact/
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Range of Species XSpecies could migrate out of the State of Florida
Annual Mean TemperatureFederal Reserve 2010 Average 2060 – A2
Dry Tortugas National Park 25.1*C (77.3*F) 26.4*C (79.6*F)
Canaveral National Seashore 22.2*C (72.0*F) 23.7*C (74.6*F)
Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge 23.5*C (74.2*F) 24.8*C (76.6*F)
Great White Heron National Wildlife Refuge 25.6*C (78.0*F) 26.7*C (80.2*F)
High Biophysical Impact/ High Biophysical Impact/
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Climate Change Factors:
Precipitation
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Anticipated Rainfall Variability
~ 50mm Spring decrease
Shift in Fall intensity
Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge – Precipitation Patterns
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Anticipated Rainfall Variability
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Climate Change Factors:
Sea-level rise
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Crocodile Lake Everglades N.P. Ding Darling Key Deer Refuge
Sea level rise threatens criticalSouth Florida coastal refuges.
How will 1 meter SLR affect key refuges?
How much land will be lost with varying degrees of SLR?
What other damage can we expect?
(Not a crocodile)
How will 1 meter SLR affect key refuges?
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Sea Level Rise
Federal Reserve 3.6” 18.4” 39.1” 113”
Caloosahatchee National Wildlife Refuge 40% 73% 100% 100%
Island Bay National Wildlife Refuge 2.5% 88% 93% 100%
Pine Island National Wildlife Refuge 5.5% 77% 82% 87%
Ten Thousand Islands NWR 8.1% 77% 96% 100%
Hobe Sound National Wildlife Refuge 6.5% 46% 70% 83%
80%95%75%90%
Crocodile Lake Everglades N.P. Ding Darling Key Deer Refuge
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Simple Climate Downscale & Overlay•Results
• Temperature rise produces cross-boundary concerns
• Precipitation shifts can affect species phenology
• Sea level rise can dramatically reduce conservation acreage
Implications• This is a coupled human-natural systems problem
• Need climate-sensitive hydrology, vegetation, species and community models
• Need these to be coupled (ideally published as web services)
• But do not have these, and must start planning anyway!
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Approach1.Stakeholder-based participatory planning
1. Stakeholders from federal, state and local agencies2. MIT facilitates , analyzes, synthesizes and develops the
alternative futures with regional stakeholders.
2.Scenario-based simulation modeling1. Multiple futures (purpose is supporting adaptive management,
not master planning)2. Simulation not Prediction (educated assumptions by local
experts, including policy options – not just trends)3. Generate set of possible futures/consequences to better inform
decision-makers.
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What Are the Essential Components of “Alternative Futures” Planning?
1. Stakeholder Process
2. Scenarios
3. Change Models
4. Impact Models
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Stakeholder-Based Processes
1. Ideally, a broad-based, representative group of those tasked with implementation + those with substantive knowledge to contribute
2. Provide expert review and help ensure management relevance
3. This requires significant “contact hours” and long term commitment
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What Do We Mean By “Scenarios”?
1.Bundles of consistent assumptions, facts, projections and possible policies
2.Vary along multiple dimensions, not just one (i.e. climate + population)
3.Require expertise and judgment to construct usefully
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Scenario DimensionsWhich aspects of change are considered?
• Climate Change
• Population Projections
• Financial Resources
• Planning Assumptions
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Scenario Parameters & BundlingWhich specific values are used for each dimension, and how are they grouped?
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Requirements for Spatial Change Simulation Models
1. Must cover uniform extent, spatial and temporal resolution
2. Consistent with historic change (and sometimes calibrated using it)
3. But must be sensitive to scenario parameters, often including a-historic policies or events
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Alternative Futures Simulation Process
ATTRACTIVENESSDEMAND
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES (2020 -2040 -2060)
•Residential •Conservation•Agriculture
•Residential •Conservation•Agriculture
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Year: 2010Year: 2020Year: 2040
Scenario C Scenario B
High Sea Level Rise – Low Financial ResourcesBusiness as Usual – Double Population
Low Sea Level Rise – High Financial ResourcesProactive – Trend Population
Year: 2060Year: 2060
Only newarea
allocated
Allocated Land Uses
Residential
Conservation
Agriculture
!( Transit Oriented Dev.
Sea Level Rise
Current Land Uses
Residential
Conservation
Agriculture
Interstate Highways
Major Lakes
Major Riversotherother
16.7%
26.6%
27.7%
29.1%
Percent of Study Region Area
9.7%
22.7%
44.1%
23.5%
Percent of Study Region Area
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Spatial Impact ModelsConsiderations
1. Should quantify changes to valued resources
2. Should be science-based
3. But must be sensitive to scenario parameters, often including a-historic policies or events
Preliminary Examples
• Species HabitatBlack BearPantherCaracaraScrub Jay
• Florida Greenways Project Network
• FNAI Endangered Natural Communities
31High Sea Level Rise – Low Financial ResourcesBusiness as Usual – Double Population
Low Sea Level Rise – High Financial ResourcesProactive – Trend Population
Development Conflict With Suitable Black Bear Habitat
Total Habitat Acreage in Thousands:
3,000
C B
Conflict Area:
13%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0.9%
Scenario C Scenario B
32High Sea Level Rise – Low Financial ResourcesBusiness as Usual – Double Population
Low Sea Level Rise – High Financial ResourcesProactive – Trend Population
Development Conflict With Suitable Black Bear Habitat
Total Habitat Acreage in Thousands:
3,000
C B
Conflict Area:
13%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0.9%
Scenario C Scenario B
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Example Impact
0.9%13%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Scenario C Scenario B
Acr
es
Total Potential Habitat: 2,976,602 acres
Potential Black Bear Habitat
Represents simple habitat loss to urbanization or sea level rise (no edge effects, minimum patch area, etc.)
Does not account for changes to “climate niche” or underlying vegetation
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Conclusions
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Consultation Process# Workshop Results
1 November 2008 Preliminary Assessment & Consultation
2 January 2009 Stakeholder Assessment & Geographic Identification of Context
3 June 2009 Scenario Dimensions, Assumptions & Prioritization
4 September 2009 Scenario Revision & Validation of Assumptions
5 April 2010 Simulation of Alternative Futures & Model Calibration
6 August, 2010 Second and final round of Scenarios and Models Calibration
7 October, 2010 Project Final presentation
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Why Apply “Alternative Futures” Planning to the Everglades/So. FL LCC?
1. Significant long-term uncertainty about 1. Climate Change (sea level, temperature & precip)2. Human population decline / growth3. Plans and Policies (land management, water management, resource
management)
2. Interested Stakeholders with Fragmented Decision Authority1. Fish and Wildlife Service (multiple refuges + 68 T&E species)2. Counties (primary responsibility for land use planning)3. State (FWC, also water districts)4. Other Federal Agencies (National Park Service, Army Corps, etc).
3. A Practical Method to Integrate Science with Decision-making1. Makes use of extensive existing science capacity2. Successfully applied in many other regions to “wicked” problems
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Future Directions
• Looking for partners to undertake – Full impact analysis of scenarios
• With Expert-based Science Review
– Evaluate existing conservation strategies
• Overlay and analyze relative to 9 MIT scenarios
• Identify vulnerabilities in current and proposed network relative to climate change
– Develop/test revised conservation strategies
• Identify potential network expansions/shifts
• ID potential climate corridors or stepping stones
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Thank you!