USDA Commodity Analysisand the Guar Conundrum

Allan Mustard and Santosh SinghDecember 6, 2013

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Country/Commodity Balance Sheets

SUPPLY = DEMAND

Beginning Stocks

Production+ + Imports = Exports +Domestic

Use+

Ending Stocks

Private

(On-farm)

(Pipeline)

Government

(Security)

(Public Distribution)

Area

Yield

Commercial

ConcessionalFeed / Residual

FSI

(Food)

(Seed)

(Industrial)

Input From Multiple Sources

Private Market Reports

Government Reports

TravelReports

OfficialCountry Reports

World WeatherReports

AttachéReports

Agribusiness

Wire Services

Private Commodity

ReportsInternational Organizations

Output Used Worldwide

Secretary ofAgriculture

The Media

USDAAgencies

Academia

U.S. and Foreign

Agricultural Attachés

State Agencies

Farmers

FarmingCorporations

Consultants

TradeAssociations

Agribusiness

Congress

Finance andBrokers

Other Governments

Industry Cooperators

Guar (Gowar), Cyamopsis tetragonoloba

India: Area Planted to Guar Bean, in thousand hectares, selected states of India

State 2011 Final 2012 EstimateRajasthan 3,094 3,100Punjab n/a 20Gujarat 125 178Haryana 215 341 TOTAL n/a 3,639Sources: Department of Agriculture of Rajasthan, Department of Agriculture of Punjab, Gujarat Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Department of Agriculture of Haryana, FAS Delhi estimates

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

2.202.302.402.502.602.702.802.903.00

R² = 0.247917075297477

slope 0.01434 t = 1.92intercept -26.02895

India: Wheat Yields, in metric tons per hectare, 1997/98 – 2009/10

std err = 0.10

India: Guar Bean Area, Yield and Production, 1997-2009, selected statesArea Yield Production

(1,000 hectares) (kg/ha) (1,000 mt)

1997-98 2,301.2 418 962.71998-99 1,922.1 254 488.51999-00 2,933.9 128 375.12000-01 3,497.4 188 658.82001-02 2,903.1 375 1,089.92002-03 974.1 208 202.62003-04 2,854.0 530 1,513.42004-05 2,867.4 315 903.32005-06 2,955.5 358 1,059.02006-07 3,343.7 350 1,169.32007-08 3,471.6 515 1,788.52008-09 3,862.5 501 1,935.82009-10 2,989.6 198 593.1

Standard deviation of yield 133.39Source: India Stats (www.indiastats.com)

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1slope 0.0111 t = 1.14intercept -21.9194

India: Guar Yields, in metric tons per hectare, 1997/98 – 2009/10

R² = 0.1052std err = 0.1318

High Yield Variation = High Unpredictability

• Unusually wide yield variance

• Large number of critical points

• Relatively unresponsive to inputs

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