USAR Energy and Water Security - · PDF fileUSAR Energy and Water Security ... Marc Kodack...

Leadership, Energy, and Execution 1UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/703-806-6721

USAR Energy and Water Security

08 November 2017

Dr. Mark Kodack, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Energy and Sustainability

Marcus De La Rosa, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryDave Judi, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory


Learning Objectives

• Why do energy and water security planning?

• What is my role with the energy and water security planning?

• What is a vulnerability assessment?

• What is the Army Reserve's plan for implementing an Energy and Water Security Strategy?

Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)

Why water security?

Marc Kodack

Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Energy and Sustainability


Potential Crises to 2030Arctic

Territorial Disputes

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

North Korea -South Korea

Crisis

South China Sea Tensions

SE AsiaTensions

Russia-Georgia Tensions

Yemen Instability

Armenia-Azerbaijan

Crisis

SyriaCivil War

Terrorist Challenges

Terrorist Challenge

Somalia Conflict

Sudan Conflict

Terrorist Challenge

Sub-Saharan AfricaWidespread Potential Humanitarian Crises,

Governance Crises

Piracy

TCOs Destabilizing Governance

Libya Internal Tensions

Egypt Internal Tensions

Cuba -Instability

Haiti Crisis

PakistanInternal Tensions

Columbia Insurgency

VenezuelaInstability

Central AsiaInterstate

Friction

Peru Insurgency

Terrorist Challenge

BalkansInstability

AfghanistanContinuing Insurgency

Terrorist Challenge

Israeli-Palestinian

Tensions

Peacekeeping India/Pakistan

IranRegional

Antagonisms

North KoreaRegime Collapse

China-Taiwan Crisis

Range of Threat Actors

Near-Peer State

Regional State

Failing State

Transnational Group

Insurgent/Guerrilla/Militia

Proxies

Terrorists

Criminal Groups

Future Operating Environment Will be Complex and Change is Likely to Accelerate

TCO Violence

Cyber Attack on Critical U.S.

InfrastructureTerrorist WMD

Attack

Colors Indicate Regional Groupings with Shared Factors

Global Conditions

Proliferation of Arms, WMD

Uneven Economic Recovery

Humanitarian/Natural Disaster,

Demographics, Technology, Resource

Scarcity, Energy, Environment

EU Integration

Frictions

Motivations• Wealth• Resources• Political authority• Influence• Sovereignty• Identity• Legitimacy

Desertification

Deserti

fication

Desertification

Desertification

Large Majority of Crises Stem from

Weak Governance

Relationship to U.S. & Allies’ Vital

National Interests May Not Be Apparent

Deforestation

Deforestation

Deforestation

Deforestation

Water Scarcity

Water Scarcity

Water

Scarcity

Fishery

Depletion

Fishery

Depletion

Fishery

Depletion

Sea Level

Rise

Sea Level

RiseSea Level

Rise

Sea Level Rise

Sea Level

Rise

Sea Level

Rise

Sea Level

Rise

Sea Level

Rise

Environmental changes will drive weak governance, which will drive crisis

4


Mission Assurance

Minor

Moderate

Major

Extreme

Highly Unlikely

Improbable Probable Very LikelyProbability

Co

nse

qu

ence

5


• Changes in storm frequency, duration, and intensity

• Water rights

• Sea level rise

• Wild fires

• Drought

Water Risks

6


Recent• Drought can result in water restrictions

that include Army installations• Training restrictions – wildfire risk• Community relations

Future• Water increasingly scarce• Increased conflict between

installations and local communities for water

• More frequent training restrictions due to limited water supply

• Supply chain disruptions• Heat index

Drought

7


Energy Security and Sustainability

Strategy

Army-wide applicability

Shared Goals1. Inform Decisions2. Optimize Use3. Assure Access4. Build Resilience5. Drive Innovation

Installation-wide applicability of Key Business Driver #2, Energy and Sustainability

ASA(IE&E) Strategy 2025

Energy Security and Sustainability Strategy

8


Water Security

9


Army Net Zero

10

A net zero installation: Applies an integrated approach to management of

energy, water, and waste to capture and commercialize the resource value

and/or enhance the ecological productivity of land, water, and air.


Why water security?

Marc Kodack

Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Energy and Sustainability


USAR Energy & Water Security

• BLUF: To confirm the path forward for Energy and Water Security planning and implementation at USAR facilities and installations


Agenda

• Background

• Definitions

• Installation Energy and Water Plan (IEWP)

• Installation Status Report – Mission Capacity (ISR-MC)

• Army Reserve Critical Asset List (ARCAL)

• Concurrent Tasks


Background

Facts:

Energy & Water Security planning is required

Defense managers and commanders will: (1) conduct energy vulnerability

analyses and review for currency annually; (2) establish energy emergency

preparedness and operation plans; and (3) develop and execute remedial action

plans to remove unacceptable energy security risks. (DEPPM 92-1)

DoD Components shall plan and have the capability to ensure available, reliable,

and quality power to continuously accomplish DoD missions from military

installations and facilities. (DoDI 4170.11 change 1, March 2016)

The Army will reduce risk to critical missions by being capable of providing

necessary energy and water for a minimum of 14 days. (Army Directive 2017-07)

Problem Statement

The complex, geographically dispersed nature of the Army Reserve presents

unique challenges to the development and implementation of energy and water

security (E&WS) planning, required by the Army for all facilities.


• Energy Security – 10 USC 2924 “(3)(A) The term “energy security” means having assured access to reliable

supplies of energy and the ability to protect and deliver sufficient energy to meet mission essential requirements.

(B) In selecting facility energy projects that will use renewable energy sources, pursuit of energy security means the installation will give favorable consideration to projects that provide power directly to a military facility or into the installation electrical distribution network. In such cases, projects should be prioritized to provide power for assets critical to mission essential requirements on the installation in the event of a disruption in the commercial grid.”

• Energy Resilience – DoDI 4170.11 “The ability to prepare for and recover from energy disruptions that impact

mission assurance on military installations.”

Definitions


Concurrent Tasks

Installation Energy and Water Plan

(IEWP)

ISR – MCMetrics for

Readiness Divisions

Vulnerability Assessments


IEWP

• March 2016 OSD memo requires

installation energy plan to:

− Assure future energy, water demand

− Achieve requirements (Congress, White

House, DoD)

− Lower costs

− Facilitate stakeholder cooperation

• OSD target is signed plans for top 75%

Army energy users by March 2019

• The Army will take this opportunity to

develop a comprehensive IEWP

requirement:

− Leverage current installation-level plans

− Meet OSD requirements

− Address additional Army energy and water

security planning objectives


Concurrent Tasks


(IEWP)

Draft Outline


Readiness Divisions


Completed Plans MAR 2019


ISR-MC2016 Results


Strategic Readiness Platforms (SRP)


Strategic Direction


Concurrent Tasks


(IEWP)

Draft Outline


Readiness Divisions

Preliminary Analysis



First Draft DEC 2017


ARCAL List


ARCAL List

12345

12

1

123

11


ARCAL List

123

1234

12345

121345

1

18



First Draft DEC 2017

VAs Complete DEC 2019

Draft Outline Preliminary AnalysisMethodology

Validation

Concurrent Tasks


(IEWP)


Readiness Divisions


Comprehensive Energy and Water Security Planning

Infrastructure Resilience

Overview

DAVID JUDI, ALAN BERSCHEID

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

December 6, 2017 27

Infrastructure Analytics

2

8

Improve the understanding of mission functional dependencies on infrastructure

service and evaluate the impacts of potential disruptive events in those systems

• System reliability studies

used to evaluate

infrastructure asset

criticality

• System response studies to

assess the ability of system

operators to mitigate

impacts

• Restoration and recovery

studies to evaluate duration

of impacts and system

outages

Infrastructure Sectors and Modeling

and Simulation Capabilities

Energy

Dams

Water\Wastewater

Information Technology

Transportation

Public Health & Healthcare

Emergency Services

Agriculture & Food

Financial Services

Commercial Facilities

Critical Manufacturing

Telecommunications

Chemical

Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste

Government Facilities

Defense Industrial Base

System Impacts Under Complex Threat

Scenarios

CBRNE

Physical Assault

Cyber

Accident

Weather Hurricane\Cyclone

Ice Storm

Tsunami

Drought

Earthquake

Flood

Climate

Pandemic

Wildfire

Analytic Process – hard, but not

intractable

December 6, 2017 31

• Data acquisition

• On-site mission

essential functions

• On-site physical

infrastructure systems

• Off-site supporting

infrastructure systems

• Control Systems

• Model based analyses

• Contingency analyses

• Scenario driven case

studies for events of

interest

• Fragility analyses

• Cascading analyses

Systems are heterogeneous across facilities

Infrastructure Analytic Process

32

Use modeling and simulation to

understand impact of external stressors on

system performance

Infrastructure Security Analytic Process

Network-based modeling and simulation

N-1, N-2 contingencies for critical assets

Definition of disruption as threshold (e.g.,

pressure/demand unmet over simulation

period)

Process objectively quantifies:

Component criticality

System redundancy

Quantification of inherent system

redundancy

Characterization and quantification of

emergency backup systems

Infrastructure analytic process is “Threat

Agnostic”

An

alyt

ic P

roce

ss Co

nti

nge

ncy

Syst

em P

erfo

rman

ce

% of normal pressure pr

D(pr) – total economic damages to business

Max_Impact

100%

0%

0% 100%

(4)

(5)

(6)

Interdependency and Consequences

Service Area Tools

Algorithms based on

magnitude of demand at

delivery points

Interdependencies identified

through the geospatial link

Consequences

Identification of dependency

magnitude

Physically based

Simulation of other

infrastructure models

33

Water Service Areas

Electric Power Service Areas

Infrastructure Analysis Levels/Data Needs

34

GOLD SILVER BRONZE

Network models

– Georeferenced

data

System schematics

Operational Plans

Stakeholder

engagement

Geospatial system

data

System component

capacities

System subject

matter expertise

Geospatial demand

allocation

Stakeholder

engagement

Higher-level analysis

Publicly available

information (e.g.,

utility websites)

Subject matter

expertise (SME)

SME assumptions on

system functionality

Service area

estimation

– Geospatial location

– Population

distribution

Value Proposition

December 6, 2017 35

• Insight to decision makers on internal and external infrastructure

dependencies for response planning

• Access to key study findings for collaborating utilities

• Potential planning tool and support for capital improvement funding

proposals across the region

• Definition of cascading consequences of system operation including public

health and economic value

• Identification of mitigation strategies for specific contingencies

• Evaluation of impacts on future system operational constraints

• Characterization of importance of interconnections to regional system

stability

Example

December 6, 2017 36

Naval Station Norfolk

Infrastructure dependencies inside/outside installation boundaries

Electric Power

Water\Wastewater

Telecommunications

Transportation

Workforce Challenges

https://apps.pnnl.gov/portal/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=808f1f9829eb4a849369daa52cb020e7

USAR Energy and Water Security - · PDF fileUSAR Energy and Water Security ... Marc Kodack...

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