Using Communicability Evaluation to Compare Interaction Design of
Usability and communicability of burden of disease methods and outputs
Transcript of Usability and communicability of burden of disease methods and outputs
Improving the usability and communication of burden of disease methods and outputs: the BCoDE toolkit application Alessandro Cassini, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Microbiological risk assessment, EFSA@EXPO, Milan, 16 October 2015
BCoDE – Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Risk ranking study
“A very relevant subject, given current pressure on health budgets: the allocation of finite disease surveillance and control resources among competing alternatives, infectious diseases in this case.”
-Del Rio Vilas et al., Eurosurveillance, 7 July 2011
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Cycle of preparedness activities
Source: ECDC
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Cycle of preparedness activities
Source: ECDC
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Approaches to ranking risk
Type of study Notes Examples
Quantitative – Burden of Disease
Most suitable for “established” diseases with strong surveillance data
-ECDC BCoDE study
Quantitative – H-index Bias with regards to what has been published and cited; MERS or SARS would have not shown up
-McIntyre et al, PLoS One, 2010
Quantitative – multi-criteria decision analysis
Stochastic; criteria weighted across experts; provides continuous score
-Havelaar et al, PLoS One, 2010 -Humblet et al, EID, 2012
Semi-quantitative and qualitative
Expert solicitation leading to discrete scores -Cardoen et al, Foodborne Pathogens, 2009 -Gilsdorf & Kraus, Eurosurveillance, 2011
Qualitative – decision algorithms
Based on pre-defined decision-trees; not a ranking approach per se
-Morgan et al, Epidemiol Infect 2009
Qualitative – weighted risk analysis
Simplistic likelihood/magnitude scale -ECDC climate change ranking (Lindgren et al, 2012)
Qualitative – Strategic Foresight, scenario-based
Focus on longer-term time frames and scenarios
-UK Foresight Study -ECDC future threat scenario study
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe project (BCoDE)
• ECDC has initiated the BCoDE study in order to assess the comparative impact of infectious diseases in Europe
• A large academic and public health consortium is involved in framing the methodology and developing disease models
• Notified data to ECDC through TESSy is corrected for under-estimation
BCoDE 2015 will soon be published
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
The Toolkit for burden estimation: a service for EU member states
A user-friendly and ready-to-use toolkit for communicable disease burden estimation will be released in 2015
EU member states and EEA countries are encouraged to employ the toolkit and undergo their national burden of communicable diseases estimation
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Introducing the tool: the main page
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
An embedded tutorial…
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
…with a walkthrough or pop-ups
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Selecting the countries and the diseases
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Main inputs: number of cases and factors adjusting for under-estimation
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Critically exploring the outcome tree
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Running the models
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Disease-specific detailed results
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Considering the impact of sequelae
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Tridimensional bubble charts
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Ranking of diseases: the table
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Age and gender information
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Objectives of the toolkit –
not only a risk ranking exercise
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Evidence-based approach to health description
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Overview of surveillance data quality and availability
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Facilitate communication of complex information to decision makers
• BCoDE 2015 relevant graphs and tables will soon be published on peer-reviewed journals
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Provide a tool for planning and prioritisation: ranking of diseases change
• BCoDE 2015 relevant graphs and tables will soon be published on peer-reviewed journals
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Provide a tool for planning and prioritisation: TBE in Slovenia, measles outbreaks, FWDs
• BCoDE 2015 relevant graphs and tables will soon be published on peer-reviewed journals
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
In practice
January 2015: EFSA Scientific opinion recommends the BCoDE toolkit as the gold standard top-down approach to rank pathogens (in combination with iRisk)
The BCoDE toolkit application – EFSA@EXPO 2015 16 October 2015
Questions and thank you For further suggestions, comments and questions please email: [email protected] [email protected]