USA China Relations
-
Upload
bojan-cvijanovic -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of USA China Relations
Cvijanovic -
Bojan Cvijanovic22 April, 2009
The US and China in 21st century: Partners or Competitors?
2
Cvijanovic -
CONTENT
Introduction………………………………………4
History of Sino-US relations……………………4
Military spending…………………………………7
Military capabilities………………………………9
Nuclear capabilities……………………………..13
Conclusion……………………………………....16
References………………………………………18
3
Cvijanovic -
Introduction: “The US and China in 21st century: Partners or Competitors?”
This will probably be one of the main questions which will define
international relations in 21st century. The US has been major global
power at the end of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st century.
After 1990’s and the fall of communism in East European countries it’s
emerged as a leader country of the whole world, not only western as it
was in Cold War. Meanwhile, there is emerging China as new great
world power, with it’s fastest growing economy in the past two
decades. One could say that relations between these two powers will
shape international relations in this century.
In this essay I am going to write short about history of Sino-US
relations from 1970’s until now, and the main part I will focus on
military side of their relations and I will examine defense spending,
military capabilities and nuclear capabilities. I am going to show if
China will challenge the US military supremacy in the East Asia region
or it will rather cooperate with the US?
History of Sino-US relations
From the very beginning of the China-US relations in the late
seventies there were lots of issues which were complicating them.
Disastrous results of the reforms such as “Great Leap Forward” and
“Cultural revolution” which failed completely showed Chinese leaders
that they are not able to compete with the West and they should try to
make some connections and take benefit from these relations. Also, in
4
Cvijanovic -
the 1970’s their adversary became USSR and they couldn’t rely on
cooperation with them anymore, while they create policy of “anti-Soviet
hegemony”. Turning-points in Sino-US relations were President
Nixon’s visit to Beijing in 1972 and formal recognition of the PRC by
the USA in 1979. China accepted the US leading role in the region and
the US made so-called “double reassurance” with China and Japan,
which assured China from Japan and Japan from China, too.
President Nixon’s visit to the Beijing showed that Americans
accepted reality that real Chinese government is in Beijing and not in
Taipei; even if they kept on helping Taiwan in economic and military
way.
In 1980 China started with its new approach to economic development.
They started with agriculture where they allowed peasants to have
private property and to produce and sell for their own benefit. After
that, they opened some Special Economic Zones (SEZ) which were
made in order to attract foreign investments and these actually worked.
During 1980-ies China proceeded with making conditions for foreign
investments but they didn’t want to change anything in their political
organization in the country. Actually, they showed in Tiananmen
massacre that one of their most important priorities is preservation of
communist government and system in the country. There are some
thoughts among Chinese intellectuals that if China became democratic
it would soon break up and stop existing as a state. This is reason why
China should stay communist autocratic country, according to them.
5
Cvijanovic -
After Tiananmen massacre Western countries led by USA broke their
relations with China for few years and China economy grows suffers.
The shadow of the Tiananmen massacre was covering Sino-US
relations in the first half of 1990’s. Melting started again in 1993, when
Chinese President Jiang Zemin visited Seattle and talked with
President Clinton for the first time.
Despite the fact that Clinton’s administration tried to improve relations
with China in the 1990’s they were faced with some serious challenges
such as 1995-1996 Chinese military manoeuvres near Taiwan cost.
The US responded with sending two aircraft carriers ship groups near
Taiwan cost to show Chinese leaders that they are serious about
protecting Taiwan from Chinese attack. At the end Chinese withdrew
and gave up idea of solving Taiwan issue by military way, at least for a
while. Regardless the fact that China reached agreement with the US
about joining WTO which shows improvement in Sino-US relations and
that the US are temporarily more focused on fight against terrorism,
China will undoubtedly stay one of the main priorities for the US. In the
next three chapters I will write something about China’s military
spending, military capabilities and nuclear capabilities and its influence
on relations with the USA.
6
Cvijanovic -
Military spending
China
Economic growth in the last two decades has enabled China to
start with modernisation of their armed forces. Unsolved issues such
as Taiwan and Tibet and examples of solving similar problems by the
US in Serbian province Kosovo and Metohija where they avoid UNSC
as well as bombing Chinese embassy in Belgrade have been sparking
China’s fear of repeating scenario like that. These are some of the
reasons why China expanded its military spending.
“Currently, China spends 5.7 percent of GDP on military
programs.”1 Military spending have arisen from $7.59 billion in 1995 to
$20 billion in 2002. “Over the past eight years, China’s military budget
has grown an average of 14.2 percent. If the Chinese maintain a 14.2
percent growth rate in military spending they will be on par with the
Russians in terms of military expenditures by 2020. This will put them
as the second highest military spender in the world behind the US.
One other point to take into consideration is that normally Chinese
military spending is two to four times as reported. This would mean
that actual Chinese spending would be around $400–$800 billion by
the year 2020, which would put them at a similar level to the United
States.”2 (2)
1 Defense & Security Analysis Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 389–404, December 2003 Is China the Next
Superpower? Suraj Sengupta
2 Defense & Security Analysis Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 389–404, December 2003 Is China the Next
Superpower? Suraj Sengupta
7
Cvijanovic -
One can say that this shows that People Liberation Army (PLA)
has lots of money, and will have in future, to spend on modern weapon
systems and will be able to strongly support China’s foreign policy. But,
despite this percent growth rate in military spending “China’s military
budget is about one-fifth that of the United States and smaller and
much less sophisticated than Japan’s”3(3). There are some thoughts
among American Defense Department which calls the PLA “one of the
world’s largest military museums.”4(4)
This seems as underestimating PLA, and it is hard to be
completely true but the fact is that the PLA uses equipment and
armament from the 1970’s and 1980’s.
In order to make modern army, compatible with other 21st
century armies in the world China will have to reduce number of its
troops. In this case they will be able to spend less money on salaries
and more on modern weapons and training and in the same time it will
have more satisfied personnel and better equipped as well.
The USA
“The United States is unique today among major states in the
degree of its reliance on military spending, and its determination to
stand astride the world, militarily as well as economically.”5
The USA is on the first place in the world regarding military
spending. Its military spending is 50% of world defense expenditures.
3 China and the USA: Who threatens whom? Robert A. Pastor4 http://www.bjreview.com/nation/txt/2009-04/05/content_189610.htm- Putting Perspective on China's Defense Spending LU HANXIN5 (http://www.monthlyreview.org/081001foster-holleman-mcchesney.php- The U.S. Imperial Triangle and Military Spending-John Bellamy Foster, Hannah Holleman, and Robert W. McChesney
8
Cvijanovic -
“For FY 2008, the Bush administration has requested $647.3 billion to
cover the costs of national defense and war. This includes the Defense
Department budget ($483 billion), some smaller defense-related
accounts ($22.6 billion), and the projected FY 2008 cost of Iraq,
Afghanistan, and counter-terror operations ($141.7 billion).
The $647.3 billion request represents a 75 percent real increase over
the post-Cold War low-point in national defense spending, which
occurred in 1996. Today's expenditures are higher in inflation-adjusted
terms than peak spending during the Vietnam and Korean wars -- as
well as higher than during the Reagan buildup.”6
From this we can predict that the US military spending in the
future will rise, and it will take long to China to become equal with the
US in term of defense budget, if ever.
Military capabilities
China
In this moment China doesn’t seem able to endanger the US
supremacy in East Asia and especially not in the world. Despite the
fact that China has the biggest army in the world, almost double as the
US, this army suffers lots of weaknesses.
First of all, there is problem with old weapon systems and
equipment. China has about 10 000 tanks, but majority of them are
Type-59, which were started to be produced in 1950’s. They have
6 http://www.comw.org/pda/0703bm41.html America Speaks Out: Is the United States spending too
much on defense? by Carl Conetta
9
Cvijanovic -
number of Type-90-II tanks, which are much more sophisticated and
equipped with some additional things such as stabilized rangefinder
sight, passive thermal imaging, and laser rangefinder and so on.
However, there is still lack of these tanks in the units.
Secondly, there are aircrafts which are mainly on the level of
1970’s and can not compete with modern aircraft in the US Armed
Forces. “As of 2002, only about 100 were considered modern by
Western standards. Despite decades of work, the only original combat
aircraft to be designed and produced in China are the J-8 and JH-7,
both of which took so long to develop that by the time they entered
service, they were already obsolete by Western standards. Due to the
lack of success in producing military aircraft, China has relied on
Russia to modernize its existing equipment. The Air Force hopes to
acquire a more versatile, advanced air force with longer-range
inceptors and long-range transport and mid-air refueling capabilities.”7
China has been developing its own aircraft J-10, which should
be comparable with American F-16, and trying to rely on their
production. Anyway, they didn’t have success in the past with
developing aircraft, so no one can predict will they success this time.
Thirdly, China doesn’t have aircraft carrier which shows that
they have very limited capabilities for projecting force far away from
their coast. There are some rumors that China will buy one aircraft
carrier from Ukraine but we will see what will happen. In this moment
China has number of submarines produced from 1960 to 1980
(Chinese versions of Soviet “Romeo” diesel-electric submarines), but 7 Why East Asian War is Unlikely- Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker
10
Cvijanovic -
those are “outclassed by nearly every ASW system deployed by
China's neighbors.”8 There are also submarines Ming and Song class
but they are not much better than Romeo class submarines. Regarding
nuclear submarines China tried to develop and build it and first of them
entered service in 1974, but until 1990 there was built only five of
them. Now they are trying to develop new nuclear submarine with
assistance of Russian builders which will be similar to Russian Victor
III class.
Regarding surface combat ships situation is better for the PLAN
because China more modern vessels in their fleet. They have two
Russians Sovremeny class destroyers, two Chinese built “Luhai” class
destroyers, 18 other destroyers and 37 frigates.
Next thing is doctrine of the PLA. Despite the fact that they are
in the process of the modernization, the PLA has old doctrine which
hardly can consider as good for the 21st century warfare. The PLA
planners have been developing new doctrine but, “according to Dennis
Blasko, the current concept of limited, informationalised war is, in many
ways, Peoples War adapted to twenty-first-century requirements and
capabilities”9
China has purchased worth military equipment from Russia and
Israel. “Between 1998 and 2005 Beijing signed new arms import
agreements worth some $16.7bn, according to the US Congressional
8 China's Military Capabilities Frank W Moore, IDDS Research Analyst, June 20009 Why is East Asian War is Unlikely, Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker
11
Cvijanovic -
Research Service; in 2005 alone, it purchased $2.8bn worth of foreign
weapon systems.”10
However, “modernization does not seem to be accelerating. Indeed,
over the past few years the pace of PLA arms acquisitions has
declined in some areas. The Chinese have not laid down a new
destroyer in more than three years. In 2006 and 2007, Chinese
overseas arms purchases were worth, respectively, $100 million and
$150 million, a far cry from the $2.8 billion worth of foreign weapons
systems it bought in 2005. ”11 Furthermore, according to US Defense
Department’s annual report on Chinese military power, “while the PLA
has made considerable progress in incorporating modern weapon
systems into its forces, as of 2007, 70% of its surface combatants,
60% of its submarine force and 80% of its fighter jets were still
considered old.” 12
The USA
Regarding the US Armed Forces it is obvious that it is the most
powerful military power in the world. They have the biggest military
budget which allows them to develop and have some of the best
weapons.
The US has 12 aircraft carriers which allow them to project force
on any point in the world. They have 50 destroyers and 92 frigates
available. The fact is that they have the biggest capabilities in air
transport in the world and they can reach any point in the world.
10 http://www.monthlyreview.org/081001foster-holleman-mcchesney.php- The U.S. Imperial Triangle and Military Spending-John Bellamy Foster, Hannah Holleman, and Robert W. McChesney
11 Why is East Asian War is Unlikely, Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker12 Why is East Asian War is Unlikely, Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker
12
Cvijanovic -
Also, they have already incorporated all those modern weapons
and equipment into their doctrine and tactics. Even on the lowest level,
in squads and platoons, they are using modern technologies. For
example, soldiers on the field gets satellites picture of the terrain in real
time which allow them to see where enemy is and to avoid or destroy
him.
Nuclear capabilities
China
“China is a recognized nuclear weapon state under the Non-
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and possesses enough nuclear material for
hundreds of nuclear weapons. China has approximately 400 nuclear
weapons and various delivery platforms, mostly short- and medium-
range missiles. ”13
“China has not officially released details about the size or
composition of its nuclear arsenal, making estimates difficult to
develop. Much of the unclassified information compiled on China’s
forces is from unverified media reports and occasional statements by
intelligence or government officials. From these, it is possible to
estimate that China fields approximately 152 warheads on land- and
sea-launched missiles, 130 bomber weapons, and 120 weapons on
artillery, short-range missiles, and other weapons. Beijing also
maintains a fairly extensive nuclear weapons production and research
13 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 2005
13
Cvijanovic -
complex. China has conducted 45 nuclear weapons tests, the first of
which took place on October 16, 1964, and the last on July 29, 1996.”14
With number of 400 nuclear warheads in its arsenal, China is on
the third place in the world, behind the USA and Russia. They also
have some missiles for carrying nuclear warheads, but they are mainly
old, liquid fuel missiles. China has been developing new missiles with
solid fuel, which are safer and easier for handling and maintenance.
“China is in the process of modernizing its strategic missile
forces although historically its progress has been slow and has lagged
well behind foreign estimates. Although China deploys several types of
ballistic missiles, only the DF-5 (13,000- kilometer range) is an
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by Western standards and is
capable of reaching the continental United States. Currently, China
deploys approximately 20 DF-5 ICBMs and 12 DF-4 intermediate-
range missiles (5,500-kilometer range). China is developing and may
have deployed the DF-31, a mobile, three-stage solid-fueled ICBM with
an estimated range of 8,000 kilometers. Plans to develop another land-
based missile, the DF-41, a solid-fueled ICBM with a range of 12,000
kilometers, appear to have been canceled in favor of an extended-
range version of the DF-31, the DF-31A. “15
“China has only one ballistic missile submarine, however, which
has never left coastal waters and is not operational. There are some
reports that a new missile submarine may be ready to enter service in
the next few years. China’s bomber force consists mainly of aging H-6 14 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 200515 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 2005
14
Cvijanovic -
aircraft based on the Soviet Tu-16 Badger bomber, with a range of
3,100 kilometers. China purchased 24 Su-30 fighter aircraft and SA-20
surface- to-air missile systems from Russia in 2004, but these are not
thought to have been modified for a nuclear role.”16
The USA
With 5200 nuclear warheads the USA is on the second place
regarding nuclear weapons in the world, behind Russia. Its nuclear
arsenal consists of ICBMs (land, sea and air-based strategic weapons)
and Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons (Tomahawk and gravity bombs).
Firstly, there is Peacekeeper (MX) ICBM which is Land-based
Strategic Weapon. It can carry 10 warheads and is very accurate,
range is 9 600 km and it has so called “cold launch” which means that
missile has been “ejected from the silo by a cold gas generator which
lofts the missile tens of meters into the air before the main engines
ignite. This process, which the Soviets used extensively, reduces
damage to the silo, allowing for swift refurbishment, and if, possible
reloading.”17
Secondly, the USA has nuclear submarines which carries
ICBMs and can hide in any point in the see, even under North Pole Ice
Cap. These are submarines Ohio-class (Trident) SSBN with Trident I
C-4 SLBM and Trident II D-5 SLBM nuclear ballistic missiles. Trident I
carry 8 x W76 warheads, 100 KT each, while Trident II carries 8 x W76
or 5 x W76 /-88 warheads.18
16 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 200517 http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/usnukes.html#mmiii-nuclear weapon data base: the US Arsenal18 See: http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/usnukes.html#ohio
15
Cvijanovic -
This is only part of nuclear arsenal of the USA, but it can easily be
seen that Americans are far cry from Chinese in this area.
Conclusion
The truth is that China is third nuclear power in the world. Also,
the fact is that China has the largest Army in the world and that it is
among major countries regarding military expenditures.
However, is China able to compete to the USA today in military
way? Despite all efforts of the Chinese government to modernize PLA,
that will hardly be done in the next decades. Chinese Army is far from
the US AF regarding all major capabilities.
Will China be able to compete to the USA in near future? China will
probably not be equal with the USA at least in the first half of 21 st
century. One high ranking military official said to his American
colleague: “You (the USA) are much too strong for us (China) to
consider you a threat. We cannot contest your power.”19
Nobody can say what will happen in the future and how exactly
military relations between China and the USA will be. In my opinion,
they have to find some way of cooperation because that is in the best
interest of both countries despite all issues which make harder this
cooperation (Taiwan, human rights, etc.). For China, cooperation with
the US is way to ensure its economic development and not go in some
kind of new Cold War. For the USA, it is way to keep their leading role
in the world and avoid making coalitions between China and countries
such as India and Russia which would oppose American interests 19 China and the USA: Who threatens whom? Robert A. Pastor
16
Cvijanovic -
worldwide. However, it will be very hard, demanding process for both
sides. Regarding military cooperation, it is heavily dependent on others
fields of cooperation. I deeply believe that military cooperation will be
achieved very short time after political agreement. We can hope, for
benefit if all mankind, that they will have success in this.
Word count: 3.285 words
References:Defense & Security Analysis Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 389–404, December 2003 Is China the Next Superpower? Suraj Sengupta
China and the USA: Who threatens whom? Robert A. Pastor
http://www.bjreview.com/nation/txt/2009-04/05/content_189610.htm- Putting Perspective on China's Defense Spending LU HANXIN
17
Cvijanovic -
(http://www.monthlyreview.org/081001foster-holleman-mcchesney.php- The U.S. Imperial Triangle and Military Spending-John Bellamy Foster, Hannah Holleman, and Robert W. McChesney
http://www.comw.org/pda/0703bm41.html America Speaks Out: Is the United States spending too much on defense? by Carl Conetta
Why East Asian War is Unlikely- Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker
China's Military Capabilities Frank W Moore, IDDS Research Analyst, June 2000
13http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 2005
http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/usnukes.html#mmiii-nuclear weapon data base: the US Arsenal
http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/usnukes.html#ohio
18