USA C emission

Visualize ImPACT and its causes along the journey to sustainability.

Paul E Waggoner and Jesse H. Ausubel The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven and

Rockefeller University, New York.

October 2002

Sustainable production and consumption are responding to the needs for a betterlife with minimum impact on the environment. For the foreseeable future the responsewill be against a background of slowing but still persistent population growth. So ourtask is visualizing consumers and producers opposing growing population and income toslow or stop the growth of impact.

Envision a scroll unrolling from an instrument in the sky above the U.S.,dynamically recording the annual percentage change of a national impact. The unrollingscroll could, for example, record the annual percentage change in national greenhouse-gas emission or fertilizer and cropland use. Its needle would ink a line to the right ifimpact accelerated and to the left if it slowed. By exerting leverages along the beam of abalance four actors—parents, workers, consumers and producers—move the needle rightto more and left to less impact. Another instrument with four pens could be tracing onanother scroll the actor’s changing leverages, recording their movement left and rightalong the beam and thus their quantitative contributions to changing impact.Superimposing the leverages that decrease impact over those that increase it would maketheir net and thus changing national impact visible on a final scroll of countered leverage.

ImPACT* provides the means for visualizing the journey to sustainability,quantitatively. Identify the four actors of ImPACT by heart, moneybag, gift-wrapped boxand tools. Color black the team of two actors who will likely increase impact. Colorgreen the team of two who may oppose them and decrease impact.

P = population,

A = income, as GDP per person,

C = consumers’ behavior, as product use per GDP, and

T = producers’ efficiency, as impact per product.

Sometimes C is called intensity of use, A affluence and T technology. We calldecreasing C, dematerialization.

* Waggoner, P.E., and Ausubel, J. H. 2002. A framework for sustainabilityscience: A renovated IPAT identity. Proc. National Acad. Sci. (US) 99:7860-7865. Online at http://phe.rockefeller.edu/ImPACT/supp1.pptSee http://phe.rockefeller.edu/ImPACT/supp1.ppt regarding consumers’ behavior andproducers’ efficiency moving in consistent patterns.

The scroll of changing impact: Carbon emission.

As the great instrument in the sky sensed changing U.S. emission of thegreenhouse-gas for the past half-century, its swinging needle inked the record below asits chart scrolled from the instrument. The instrument smoothed single-year fluctuationsand recorded them as an average annual rate over 10 years.

Emissions annually increased about 2% during the 1950s, accelerated to 4%during the 1960s, decreased during the 1970s and increased about 1% since. Visualizehow the American actors on the ground caused the needle of the instrument in the sky toswing, inking this crooked line.

USA C emission

ImPACT Visual Waggoner Ausubel slide 2

The balance of leverages: Carbon emission.

ImPACT enables the balancing of positive leverages that increase impact againstnegative leverages that decrease it. The product P A C T is identical with theimpact Im.

Im = P A C T

The rates of change of the logarithms of P, A, C and T add up to the rate ofchange of impact. Conveniently, small annual percentage changes can be substituted forthe change of logarithms. Redefine P, A, C and T as annual percentage changes that weshall call leverages. Then

Im = P plus A plus C plus T

On the balance below, the four actors exert the leverages of their average rates ofchange during the half-century. The annual percentage changes and leverages placing theactors along the beam were 1.2 population and 2.3 income on the right wherethey increased impact. Decreasing impact on the left were 1.3 consumer behavior and0.3 producer efficiency. The net of leverages, right and left, equals the 1.9 averagepercentage increase of ImPACT.

Because the average net of the four leverages during a half-century was anincrease of carbon emission, in the visualized balance the needle for the change of impactswung right for More rather than left for Less. But, a half-century is a long time.Visualize how the American actors shifted along the balance beam during the half-century to move the needle in the instrument in the sky and ink a crooked line ofchanging emission.

Less More

USA C emission


The scroll of changing leverages: Carbon emission.

While a record of increasing and slowing carbon emission unscrolled from thegreat instrument, another instrument tracked the actors and unrolled another record. Itrecorded four traces of the actors’ changing leverages right and left along the beam andthus their quantitative contributions to More or Less impact.

On the right, the change of population gradually slowed from the Baby Boomto a nearly steady 1% per yr. Also on the right, income busted and boomed 1 to3%/yr. Countering these leverages, consumer behavior measured by goods perGDP stayed on the left. After changing little during the 1960s, it dematerialized fasterthan 2%/yr during the 1970s and still 1 to 2% during the 1980s and 1990s. Producerefficiency that contributed leftward to less impact by nearly 1%/yr at the beginningof the half-century, at the end was changing impact little. Visualize how much theleverages of the four actors countered one another during a half-century.


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USA C emission

The scroll of countered leverage: Carbon emission.

For the course of a half-century, visualize how much dematerializing consumerbehavior and improving producer efficiency countered population and income,year by year.

Comparing the net of the black team’s leverage with the opposing net of the greenteam’s leverage requires depicting two sums as well as four individuals. So in the nextslide, a dashed black line still represents changing population, but a solid black linerepresents the net changes of population and income. Similarly a dashed green linestill represents consumer behavior, but now a solid green line represents the netchanges of consumer behavior and producer efficiency.

To compare the leverages visually requires superimposing them. So on the nextslide, we reflected the dashed green line for consumer onto the right. Also, wereflected the solid green line for the sum of and onto the right. Superimposing thegreen team’s leverage on the black team’s makes the success or failure of thecounteraction visible. The dashed lines keep the contributions of the individual actors insight: The distance from 0 to a dashed line is the leverage of or , and the distancefrom a dashed to solid line is the leverage of or . But now a matching of the solidgreen line with the solid black displays consumers and producers exactly counteringpopulation and income growth. Matching means the green team neutralized the blackteam.

The distance between the solid green and black lines equals the change in carbonemission inked by the instrument in the sky. The distance crosshatched in black showsthe generally increasing emission charted in our very first chart. The scroll of counteredleverage also reveals each actor’s changing contribution. Income displayed a greaterand more changeable leverage than its partner in black, population. And consumerbehavior displayed a greater and more changeable leverage than producer efficiency.The initially wide crosshatched distance between the black vs. the green team narrowedduring the 1970s and then grew to an intermediate width at the end, swinging the balanceand swaying the line of the instrument in the sky.


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USA C emission

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The scroll of changing impact: Fertilizer.

Following World War II, farmers took up the new technology of inexpensive,synthetic nitrogen fertilizer. It raised yields, replaced the mining of guano deposits andalso spared the nitrogen in farm soil. An instrument in the sky sensing the change of U.S.use of nitrogenous fertilizer would have recorded a scroll of rapid increase at first andthen deceleration. A similar deceleration of global fertilizer use has been attributed to thecollapse of the Soviet Union, but the instrument over the U.S. would have recorded anearlier deceleration that cannot be explained by the end of the Soviet Union. Visualizehow the American actors swung the needle of the instrument in the sky to the left.

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The balance of leverages: Fertilizer.

The definition of Population and Income continue. For fertilizer, however,crop production per GDP represents consumer behavior. Fertilizer per crop productionrepresents producer efficiency . The contrast between fertilizer use in 1965 and 1995requires two pictures of the balance driving the instrument in the sky. In 1965 instead ofefficiency countering Population and Income, it was on the right, increasingimpact and tilting the balance hard to More. By 1995, however, producer efficiencyhad moved to its usual and hoped-for place on the left. In 1995 the balance of leveragespointed between More and Less, indicating no change in fertilizer use. Visualize howAmerican actors shifted along the balance beam in four decades to swing the needle ofthe instrument in the sky from far right to a central position indicating little change inimpact.

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Less More

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Less More

1965

1995

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The scroll of changing leverages: Fertilizer.

Against the familiar background of population and income growth, the chart forfertilizer shows unfamiliar paths for changing consumer behavior and producerefficiency. Reflecting the big news that required depicting two balances on the previousslide, producer efficiency swung rapidly left during the 1960s. Then the green lines onthe scroll fluctuated prominently. Because is the ratio of the variable crop divided bythe relatively steady GDP, the annual fluctuations of the dashed green line followedfluctuations in the crop index brought on by drought, flood and farm policy. At the sametime fluctuations in the crop index often moved in the opposite direction because theindex divides . With the leverage traced by the dashed and that traced by the solid linemultiplied and divided by the same crop index, the two lines tend to swing out of phase.The shifting leverages evidenced both the rise and maturing of a technology andfarming’s exposure to the vicissitudes of weather. Visualize the countering of the blackteam by the green.

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USA N Fertilizer


The scroll of countered leverages: Fertilizer.

As for carbon emission, we again represent the sum of population and income changes by a solid black line, the sum of consumer behavior and producer efficiency changes by a solid green line. The dashed lines separate the leverageof one actor from the other. And we reflected the green lines onto the right. Thedistance between the solid green and black lines represents the change in fertilizer use.

The distance crosshatched in black shows how fast fertilizer use flourished--untilabout 1975. Since, it has fluctuated, occasionally changing not at all or even declining.

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USA N Fertilizer

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The scroll of changing impact: Cropland.

The preceding visual displays of actors changing U.S. carbon emission andfertilizer use show what a hard act balancing and with and can be. Ourfinal example, the expansion of cropland, shows the hard act is not impossible toperform.

Since a beginning signaled by the introduction of hybrid corn, improvementsincluding fertilizer, have lifted crop yields. An instrument in the sky would haverecorded little change of U.S. cropland expanse from 1961 to 2000.

USA Cropland

ImPACT Visual Waggoner Ausubel slide11

The balance of leverages: Cropland

The definitions of population, income and consumption continue. Butnow producer efficiency becomes cropland area per crop production. The fairlysteady decrease in cropland during much of the four decades can be pictured as a singlebalance slightly tipped to Less. Crops per person increased only two-thirds as fast asincome, decreasing . Producers raised yields and thus lowered land per crop about2% per yr. Thus and were well to the left of the fulcrum, countering and andswinging the needle slightly toward Less. Visualize the changing leverages during fourdecades.

Less More

USA Cropland


The scroll of changing leverages: Cropland.

Three of the four actors for cropland were the same as in the fertilizer action, andthe courses of their changing leverages were the same. Unlike the fertilizer per crop thatincreased sharply at first, however, the cropland per crop decreased fairly steadilythroughout the four decades as depicted in the scroll below.

Again, the dashed green line for fluctuated. And because cropland divided as it multiplied , the dashed and solid green lines often fluctuated in oppositedirections. Visualize how the green team’s leverages countered the black team’s impacton cropland expanse


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USA Cropland

The scroll of countered leverages: Cropland

Again, we represent the sum of and changes by a solid black line, the sum of and changes by a solid green line. And we reflected the green lines onto the right.The distance between the solid green and black lines represents the change in cropland.

The distance crosshatched in black shows cropland expanded in the early decades.In the 1970s and 1980s, the green and black lines practically coincided, depicting asteady cropland expanse as and fluctuated but successfully countered and .Recently the solid green line moved right of the black, indicating that the improvement ofthe green team outdistanced the black, shrinking cropland a bit.

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USA Cropland


In the end

A vision of a great instrument recording the change of a national impact on anunrolling scroll sets the stage. By presenting annual changes of national impact as thesum of leverages of four actors, ImPACT invites visualization as the actors moving alongthe beam of a balance. The positions of the green team of consumer behavior andproducer technology on the beam, usually opposing the black team of population andincome, can with dematerialization and efficiency swing the needle on the balance left toLess impact. Swinging the balance to Less also swings the pen of the great instrument tothe left to record decreasing impact. Another instrument and scroll record the course ofthe actors’ separate leverages through time as they tilt the balance. Finally, the trace ofthe changing leverages of the green forces directly overlaying the black revealsquantitatively to the eye which team is winning and whether a sustainability goal of Lessimpact is being attained. Visualization dramatizes the different effectiveness of actorsaffecting three impacts: The slowing but continuing increase of carbon dioxide emissiondespite dematerialization, the leverage of dematerialization and growing producerefficiency that slowed the early spurt of fertilizer use, and the growing efficiency of cropproduction that shrank cropland a bit.

The concluding, sixteenth slide visualizes the balance of leverages driving thegreat scroll of changing carbon emission while another scroll records the shiftingleverages of the actors, percent per year, year after year.


Less More

Net of leverages changes C emission %/yr

Component leverages %/yr

Balance of leverages %/yr

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USA C emission

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