U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: February 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

Professional and business services is

the big winner in a slow February

U.S. employment situation: February 2013 March 7, 2014

What were February’s bright spots and challenges?

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

• The U.S. economy added 175,000

jobs in February, representing

below-average growth but exceeding

some expectations.

• The unemployment rate increased

by 10 basis points to 6.7 percent.

• Total non-farm employment is at

99.5 percent of its previous peak

figure.

• 92.4 percent of the 8.7 million jobs

lost during the recession have been

recovered.

• PBS led both monthly and year-on-

year gains, and was the big winner

in an otherwise slow month.

• Tech remains the dominant industry

for job growth, with energy

remaining volatile.

• Unemployment for high school and

college graduates is below the official

rate of 6.7 percent.

• Although wobbling, initial claims

remain only slightly above 300,000,

below previous years and below the

400,000 threshold for growth, but

have yet to see consistent declines

since.

• PBS’ rebound boosted office-using

industries’ share of monthly gains to

41.1 percent.

• Consumer confidence, despite a

small decline (-1.3 points), is still

elevated.

• Geographically, growth is being seen

increasingly outside of Texas and

tech hubs.

• T

• Total unemployment (including

disaffected workers) remains above

historic norms at 12.6 percent.

• Labor force participation for high

school and college graduates,

although up, is still suppressed.

• Information continues to bring down

office-using growth, contracting by

16,000 jobs in February.

• Private-sector employment growth

has been subdued over the past

three months.

• Help wanted ads are on the up, but

so is unemployment.

• Temporary help services added

24,400 jobs, bringing its payroll total

to an elevated 2.8 million.

Overview Bright spots Challenges

OVERVIEW

February posts a moderate increase from the previous

month (+175,000 jobs), but again below average 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

129,

000

175,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-11

Jan-

11F

eb-1

1M

ar-1

1A

pr-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

n-11

Jul-1

1A

ug-1

1S

ep-1

1O

ct-1

1N

ov-1

1D

ec-1

1Ja

n-12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13F

eb-1

3M

ar-1

3A

pr-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

n-13

Jul-1

3A

ug-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-1

3N

ov-1

3D

ec-1

3Ja

n-14

Feb

-14

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge


3

OVERVIEW

Revisions bring three-month employment growth to

388,000 jobs; unemployment rises 10bp to 6.7 percent

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

OVERVIEW

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76

1973 1981 1990 2001 2007

76 months into the cycle, total employment is now less

than 0.5 percent below prior peak levels

Rec

over

ed jo

bs (

%)

Past recessions (40 years)


Pre-recession employment level

5

OVERVIEW

Jobs lost during recession…

Jobs gained during recovery…

92.4 percent of jobs have been recovered from the

recession; now 666,000 jobs below pre-recession peak


6

OVERVIEW

Office-using jobs lost

during recession…

Office-using jobs gained

during recovery…

All office-using jobs have been recovered, but there is now

an emphasis on management, tech and design


7

OVERVIEW

-16.0

-4.1

-3.6

0.0

1.0

3.0

3.4

6.0

6.0

9.0

13.0

14.7

14.8

15.0

24.4

25.0

33.0

79.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Information

Retail trade

Transportation and warehousing

Nondurable goods

Mining and logging

Other services

Motor vehicles and parts

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Financial activities

Government

Health care and social assistance

Wholesale trade

Construction

Temporary help services

Leisure and hospitality

Education and health services

Professional and business services

1-month net change (thousands)

All subsectors saw below-average growth, but PBS was

by far the largest contributor to growth


8

OVERVIEW

PBS

Education and health


All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

78.3 percent of

monthly

growth.

-42.0

-32.0

2.3

4.0

28.1

33.0

57.0

61.0

61.0

90.3

115.6

152.0

227.7

275.2

281.9

337.0

404.0

668.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Information

Government

Mining and logging

Nondurable goods

Motor vehicles and parts

Other services

Durable goods


Manufacturing

Transportation and warehousing

Wholesale trade

Construction

Temporary help services

Health care and social assistance

Retail trade

Education and health services


Professional and business services


PBS


Education and health

Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

PBS was also dominant in year-on-year gains, but less

so due to strong growth in leisure, education and health


9

Core subsectors added 84.0 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

OVERVIEW

Cold weather might be the culprit in retail trade’s

unusual February contraction

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics SECTOR FOCUS

10

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

January and February countered retail’s traditional winter growth Electronics and sports stores contract the most

-12.0

-8.6

-5.4

-2.0

-0.6

-0.2

0.9

1.3

3.0

3.2

4.3

-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

Electronics stores

Sporting goods stores

General merchandise

Health stores

Gas stations

Non-store retailers

Miscellaneous

Furniture stores

Building material stores

Motor vehicle dealers

Clothing stores


Rebounds in PBS growth boost service-providing

employment in spite of an across-the-board slowdown

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


11

BRIGHT SPOT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

Both high school and college graduate unemployment

are stable, within 20bp of January

3.4%

6.4%


12

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities is

more volatile

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2014.

13

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing

slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent growth


14

BRIGHT SPOT

Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to

remain in the low 300,000s

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

15

BRIGHT SPOT

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

PBS’ rebound and slowdown in other sectors boosts

office-using industries’ contribution to monthly gains


16

BRIGHT SPOT

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Although consumer confidence dipped by 1.3 points, it

remains elevated compared to the rest of the recovery

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

17

BRIGHT SPOT

Markets seeing some of the strongest growth are not

necessarily in Texas or tech hubs


18

Silicon Valley

3.4%

Phoenix

2.5% Atlanta

2.5%

Charlotte

2.6%

Houston

3.0%

Austin

2.8%

Seattle

2.6%

BRIGHT SPOT

Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest

of the country


Cleveland

-0.6%

Milwaukee

0.6% New Jersey

0.3%

St. Louis

0.6%

Detroit

0.8%

19

CHALLENGE

Total unemployment fell by only 10bp, but is

approaching the 10-year average

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


20

CHALLENGE

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

58

59

60

61

62

63

College graduates

High school grads no college

Labor force participation still suppressed, although

rising 40bp for high school graduates

Col

lege

gra

duat

es

High school graduates


21

CHALLENGE

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

Private sector job gains below 2013 levels, similar to

2012 during the national slowdown

Private sector hiring up 4.4

million since February 2012

Public sector shed 89,000 workers

since February 2012


22

CHALLENGE

Information continues to drag down office-using job

growth (-16,000 jobs in February)

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In February 2014, it represented all 89.8 percent of new office jobs.


23

CHALLENGE

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

Onl

ine

help

wan

ted

ads

Online help wanted ads

Unemployment rate

February saw a sharp increase in help wanted ads, but

unemployment rate is not in alignment

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board

24

CHALLENGE

Temporary help services jumps by 24,400 jobs and

surpasses 2.8 million jobs for the first time

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


25

CHALLENGE

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: February 2014

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