US Petroleum Weekly January 7 2016

Energy Briefing:US Petroleum Weekly

Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 7, 2016

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com


Crude Oil Production & Petroleum Imports 3Petroleum Imports & Exports 4Petroleum Products Supplied 5-6Rig Count 7Petroleum Usage 8-9Crude Oil Production & Imports 10Petroleum Inventories 11Oil Prices 12-13Misc. 14-19Large Speculators: Crude Oil 20Large Speculators: Gasoline 21

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1/1

US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION(million barrels per day, weekly, nsa)

Total (9.2)

Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 1.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 174

6

8

10

12

14

16

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1/1

US IMPORTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS(million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa)

Crude Oil & Petroleum Products (9.5)

Crude Oil Including SPR (7.8)


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Figure 2.

Crude Oil Production & Petroleum Imports

Page 3 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com


92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 170

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1/1

US IMPORTS & EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS(million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa)

Crude Oil & Petroleum ProductsImports(9.5)

Exports(4.4)

Net Imports (5.1)


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Figure 3.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1/1

US EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS(million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa)

Crude Oil & Petroleum Products (4.4)

Crude Oil (0.5)


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Figure 4.

Petroleum Imports & Exports



91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1716

17

18

19

20

21

22

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

1/1

US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)

Total* (19.7)

* Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products.Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 5.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 177.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

1/1

US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS; GASOLINE DEMAND(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)

TotalDemand (9.2)


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Figure 6.

Petroleum Products Supplied



91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 172.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

1/1


Distillate (3.9)


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Figure 7.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 176.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

1/1


Total LessGasoline &Distillates (6.7)


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Figure 8.

Petroleum Products Supplied



91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

1/1

BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE RIG COUNT(units)

Total US (698)Gas (162)Oil (536)

Source: Baker Hughes Inc.

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Figure 9.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1/1

1/1

BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE OIL RIG COUNT& US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION

Rig Count(units)

Production(million barrels per day, nsa)

Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and US Department of Energy.

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Figure 10.

Rig Count



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5US PETROLEUM USAGE(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)

Values shown are prior years weekscomparable to latest years week 01/01/16

2016 (19.7)2015 (20.2)2014 (19.7)2013 (18.9)2012 (18.4)


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Figure 11.


8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0

10.2

10.4

10.6

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0

10.2

10.4

10.6US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: GASOLINE DEMAND(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)


2016 (9.0)2015 (9.3)2014 (8.8)2013 (8.4)2012 (8.6)


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Figure 12.

Petroleum Usage




3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4US DISTILLATE USAGE(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)


2016 (3.5)2015 (3.9)2014 (3.6)2013 (3.6)2012 (3.8)


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Figure 13.


5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5US PETROLEUM USAGE MINUSGASOLINE & DISTILLATE USAGE(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)


2016 (7.2)2015 (7.0)2014 (7.2)2013 (6.9)2012 (6.0)


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Figure 14.

Petroleum Usage




5.25.45.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.67.88.08.28.48.68.89.09.29.49.69.810.010.210.410.610.811.011.2

5.25.45.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.67.88.08.28.48.68.89.09.29.49.69.8

10.010.210.410.610.811.011.2

US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)


2016 (9.1)2015 (9.0)2014 (8.0)

2013 (6.9)2012 (5.8)


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Figure 15.


6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0US CRUDE OIL IMPORTS INCLUDING SPR(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)


2016 (7.9)2015 (7.4)2014 (7.8)2013 (8.1)2012 (9.0)


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Figure 16.

Crude Oil Production & Imports




310

330

350

370

390

410

430

450

470

490

510

530

550

310

330

350

370

390

410

430

450

470

490

510

530

550US PETROLEUM STOCKS: CRUDE OIL*(million barrels)


2016 (482.3)2015 (382.4)2014 (357.9)2013 (361.3)2012 (334.6)

Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.* Excluding US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

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Figure 17.


195

205

215

225

235

245

255

195

205

215

225

235

245

255US PETROLEUM STOCKS: FINISHED MOTOR GASOLINE(million barrels)


2016 (232.0)2015 (237.2)2014 (227.0)2013 (233.1)2012 (223.8)


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Figure 18.

Petroleum Inventories



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201625

50

75

100

125

150

25

50

75

100

125

150

1/6

CRUDE OIL PRICES*(dollars per barrel)

Nearby FuturesBrent Crude (34.2)

WTI Crude (33.3)

* Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 19.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1/6

CRUDE OIL PRICES*(dollars per barrel)

Nearby FuturesBrent Minus WTI (0.3)

* Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 20.

Oil Prices



III IV I II III IV I II III IV2014 2015 2016

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1/5

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per barrel)

Nearby (36.42)

3-month (37.77)

6-month (40.29)

1-year (44.14)

2-year (49.10)

Source: Haver Analytics.* Settlement price.

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Figure 21.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1/5

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per barrel)

2-Year Minus Nearby (12.68)

Source: Haver Analytics.* Settlement price.

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Figure 22.

Oil Prices



10

20

30

40

12/26

0

1

2

12/26

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

10

20

30

12/26

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

20

30

40

50

12/26

INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(4-week ma, sa)

Texas NorthDakota

Ohio Pennsylvania

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 23.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201720

40

60

80

100

120

20

40

60

80

100

120

12/26

INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: MAJOR OIL-PRODUCING STATES(4-week ma, thousands, sa)

Total*

* Includes Texas, North Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 24.

Misc.



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Nov

US CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS EXPORTS & IMPORTS(billion dollars, saar)

Exports

Imports

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 25.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Nov

US IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS(billion dollars, saar)

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 26.

Misc.



00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 165

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Nov

MINING, OIL FIELD & GAS MACHINERY(billion dollars, saar)

Orders

Shipments

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Source: Bureau of the Census.

Figure 27.

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1710

15

20

25

30

10

15

20

25

30

1/1

US CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES / PETROLEUM USAGE

Source: Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 28.

Misc.



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 183

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

1/2

RAILCAR LOADINGS & US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION

Railcar Loadings:Chemicals & Petroleum Products(thousand units, 26-wa)

US Crude Oil Field Production(million barrels per day, nsa)

Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Energy.

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Figure 29.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20163.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

1/1

US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION(million barrels per day, weekly)

Seasonally Adjusted (9.1)

Not Seasonally Adjusted (9.2)


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Figure 30.

Misc.



85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

12/25

12/25

US CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION BY KEY STATES(million barrels per day, 4-week ma)

North Dakota (1.2)

Texas (3.7)


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Figure 31.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1/1

SepBAKER HUGHES ACTIVE OIL RIG COUNT& US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION

Rig Count: Gas(units)

Natural Gas Production(trillion cubic feet, 12-month average)

Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and Oil Gas Journal.

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Figure 32.

Misc.



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

Nov

PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: NATURAL RESOURCES INDUSTRIES(thousands, sa)

Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 33.

Misc.



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

12/29

WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS(contracts of million barrels)

Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.

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Figure 34.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

1/1

WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS(as a percent of US crude oil inventories*)

Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.* Excluding US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

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Figure 35.

Large Speculators: Crude Oil



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

12/29

GASOLINE FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS(contracts of 42,000 US gallons)


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Figure 36.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

1/1

GASOLINE FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS(as a percent of US gasoline inventories)


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Figure 37.

Large Speculators: Gasoline



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US Petroleum Weekly January 7 2016

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