U.S. & Oregon Market Hotel Industry Overview...2006 2011 2016 Supply % Change Demand % Change Oregon...
Transcript of U.S. & Oregon Market Hotel Industry Overview...2006 2011 2016 Supply % Change Demand % Change Oregon...
©2018STR,Inc.AllRightsReserved.Anyreprint,useorrepublicationofallorapartofthispresentationwithoutthepriorwrittenapprovalofSTR,Inc.orSTRGlobal,Ltd.tradingasSTR(collectively“STR”)isstrictlyprohibited.AnysuchreproductionshallspecificallycreditSTRasthesource.ThispresentationisbasedondatacollectedbySTR.Nostrategicadviceormarketingrecommendationisintendedorimplied.
U.S.&OregonMarketHotelIndustryOverview
ORLAHospitalityConferenceSeptember17,2019
ChaseOeser,CHIASr.BusinessDevelopmentExecutive,Hotels
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www.hotelnewsnow.comDataDashboard>ViewAllDataPresentations
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• TotalUSReview
• OregonOverview
• OregonMarkets
• Pipeline
• Forecast
• Odd&Ends
• TimeforQ&A
Agenda
TheCenteroftheHotelIndustryBenchmarkingUniverse:
Hendersonville,TN
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STRBuildingBlocks
Supply(roomsavailable)
Demand(roomssold)
Revenue(roomsrevenue)
OCC ADRRevPAR
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TotalU.S.Review
©2018STR.AllRightsReserved. 7July2019,TotalUSResults
RevPAR+1.1%
July2019
TransientRevPAR+0.8%
JulyRoomDemand122Million
InConstructionRooms8.3%
GroupRevPAR-0.2%
ADR+0.7%
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Idon’talwayslikeCalendarShifts…
…butwhenIdoIprefer5Wednesdays
JulyRevPAR+1.1%
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July2019:MonthlyRevPARHits
$100FirstTimeEver!
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July2019:GrowthisGrowth(EvenWhenIt’sSmall)
%ChangeRoomSupply 2.0%RoomDemand 2.4%Occupancy 73.8% 0.4%
ADR $135 0.7%RevPAR $100 1.1%
RoomRevenue 3.2%
TotalUSResults,July2019
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JulyYTD2019:TheNoGrowth/SlowGrowthStoryContinues
%ChangeRoomSupply 2.0%RoomDemand 2.1%Occupancy 67.1% 0.1%
ADR $132 1.1%RevPAR $88 1.2%
RoomRevenue 3.2%
TotalUSResults,JulyYTD2019
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NumberofMonthswithPositiveADR%ChangeofLessThan1%
2011–2018
0YTD2019
5
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12MMAJuly2019:PersistentWeakADRChange
HighestEver? %Change
RoomSupply þ 2.0%RoomDemand þ 2.1%Occupancy ý 66.2% 0.1%
ADR þ $131 1.5%RevPAR þ $87 1.6%
RoomRevenue þ 3.6%
TotalUSResults,12MMAJuly2019
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QuarterlyRevPARGrowth:ResultsPositive,ButSlowing
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q1 '14 Q1 '15 Q1 '16 Q1 '17 Q1 '18 Q1 '19
*TotalU.S.,QuarterlyRevPAR%Change,Q12014–Q22019
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Supply&DemandGrowthInEquilibriumWillDrive2019/2020Results
-0.7
-4.7
-7.1
7.8
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
TotalU.S.,Supply&Demand%Change,12MMA1/1990–07/2019
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RevPARGrowth:LongestRevPARUpcycle(withtwosmallinterruptions)
-25
-15
-5
5
15
1990 2000 2010
TotalU.S.,RevPAR%Change,1/1990–07/2019
56Months 111Months(outof113)
111Months(outof112)
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WhatShouldWorryus?~835,000OpenPositionsinAccommodations/FoodService…
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1/1/2012 1/1/2014 1/1/2016 1/1/2018
TotalU.S.,Accommodationandfoodservices,Jobopenings,seasonallyadjusted,https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment
(‘000s)
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..AndTheFightForTalentDrivesUpHourlyWages
$14.53
$15.16
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
+4.3%YOY
TotalU.S.,Leisureandhospitality,Accommodation,Averagehourlyearningsofproductionandnonsupervisoryemployees,notseasonallyadjustedhttps://www.bls.gov/dataCEU7072100008
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ClassReview
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Class:SupplyGrowthWillImpactResultsGoingForward
2.72.5
3.6 3.7
1.1
-0.4
2.6
1.7
3.13.6
1.00.7
Luxury UpperUpscale Upscale UpperMidscale Midscale Economy
Supply%ChangeDemand%Change
*Supply/Demand%Change,byClass,YTDJuly2019
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ClassRevPARResults:Growth(ButBarely)
1.1
0.70.4
0.7
0.2
1.6
Luxury UpperUpscale Upscale UpperMidscale Midscale Economy*RevPAR%Change,byClass,YTDJuly2019
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ClassOccupancy:OccupancyWillRemainFlat(OrDecline)In2019
71.973.7 72.5
68.6
60.8 60.3
72.074.3
72.8
68.7
60.8 59.6
Luxury UpperUpscale Upscale UpperMidscale Midscale Economy
2019 2018
*OCC%,byClass,YTDJuly2019&2018
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Segmentation
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TransientPerformance:ADRGrowthNowBelow2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jan-18 Jan-19
Demand%Change
ADR%Change
*TransientDemandandADR%Change,12MMA,1/2018–07/2019
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GroupPerformance:ADRGrowthHoldsSteady–ForNow
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jan-18 Jan-19
Demand%Change
ADR%Change
*GroupDemandandADR%Change,12MMA,1/2018–07/2019
EasterShift
EasterShift
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SegmentationADR%Change:TransientADRGrowthNoticeablyWeakerThanGroupADRGrowth
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
Jan-18 Jan-19
TransientADR%Change
GroupADR%Change
*ADR%Change,Transient&Group,12MMA,1/2017–07/2019
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OregonMarkets
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Portland,ORSubmarkets
Tucson/East
North/West
South/Airport
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OregonAreaSubmarkets
Tucson/East
North/West
South/Airport
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OregonYTDJuly2019:DemandOutpacingSupply
TotalORResults,July2019YTD
%ChangeRoomSupply 2.6%RoomDemand 2.9%Occupancy 65.9% 0.2%
ADR $123 0.4%RevPAR $81 0.6%
RoomRevenue 3.3%
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Portland,ORYTDJuly2019:
TotalPortland,ORResults,July2019YTD
%ChangeRoomSupply 4.5%RoomDemand 3.4%Occupancy 72.7% -1.0%
ADR $135 -0.2%RevPAR $98 -1.2%
RoomRevenue 3.2%
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OregonAreaYTDJuly2019:
TotalOregonAreaResults,July2019YTD
%ChangeRoomSupply 1.7%RoomDemand 2.4%Occupancy 61.2% 0.7%
ADR $112 0.9%RevPAR $68 1.6%
RoomRevenue 3.3%
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OregonMarketOverview
Oregon
0.2%
0.4%
-1.0%
-0.2%
0.7%
0.9%
Occ
ADROregonMarkets,July2019YTD
Portland OregonArea
SanJose/SantaCruz
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Portland,ORSubmarkets:
Portland,ORSubmarkets,July2019YTD,Absoluteand%Change
Beaverton/SunsetHwyWest,OR 71.3% 1.5% $128 4.3% $91 5.9%LakeOswego/I-5South,OR 70.9% -0.2% $120 0.8% $85 0.6%PortlandAirport/Vancouver,OR-WA 71.8% -2.2% $117 0.5% $84 -1.7%PortlandCBD,OR 77.0% -2.2% $172 -2.5% $133 -4.6%PortlandI-84/I-205East,OR 67.0% 1.5% $95 -1.3% $64 0.2%
Submarket Occ Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
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OregonAreaSubmarkets:
OregonAreaSubmarkets,July2019YTD,Absoluteand%Change
Bend/Redmond,OR 67.1% 0.5% $131 0.8% $88 1.3%Eugene,OR 63.9% -0.1% $105 -2.8% $67 -2.8%Medford/GrantsPass,OR 62.2% -2.5% $97 0.2% $60 -2.3%OregonEastArea 58.3% 3.2% $106 5.8% $62 9.2%OregonWestArea 59.9% 0.7% $115 -0.1% $69 0.6%
Submarket Occ Change ADR Change RevPAR Change
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-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2006 2011 2016
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
Portland,ORMarket:SupplyandDemand12MMA
Portland,ORMarket:Supply&Demand%Change;12MMA2006–July2019
4.0%3.1%
9.0%
1.2%
-9.9%
5.5%4.1%
2.9%
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-8
-4
0
4
8
2006 2011 2016
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
OregonAreaMarket:SupplyandDemand12MMA
OregonAreaMarket:Supply&Demand%Change;12MMA2006–July2019
1.8%1.8%
5.3%
-0.6%
-7.0%
6.4%
0.9%
2.3%
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-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
OCC%Change ADR%Change
Portland,ORMarket:OCCandADR12MMA
Portland,ORMarket:ADR&OCC%Change;12MMA2006–July2019
2.5% 0.0%
10.7%
-9.0%
10.4%
-12.8%
7.2%
-0.9%
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-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
OCC%Change ADR%Change
OregonAreaMarket:OCCandADR12MMA
OregonAreaMarket:ADR&OCC%Change;12MMA2006–July2019
-1.9%
0.1%
7.7%
-1.1%
6.7%
-9.0%
4.9%
0.1%
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InConstruction:Verticalconstructiononthephysicalbuildinghasbegun.
FinalPlanning:Constructionwillbeginwithinthenext12months.
Planning:Constructionwillbegininmorethan13months.
UnderContract
Pipeline
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Pipeline
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USPipeline:I/CRoomsIncrease,ButStillManageable
Phase 2019 2018 %Change
InConstruction 206 190 8.3%
FinalPlanning 237 224 5.8%
Planning 217 194 11.6%
UnderContract 660 609 8.4%
*TotalUSPipeline,byPhase,‘000sRooms,July2019and2018
©2018STR.AllRightsReserved. 43*TotalUSPipeline;RoomsInConstruction,in‘000s;01/2006–07/2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Low:July‘1150K
July’19206K
High:Dec‘07211K
5K
I/CPipelineClosingInOnPriorPeakThou
sand
s
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LimitedServiceConstructionIsTheNameOfTheGame
14.1
28.8
61.8 64.1
14.0
3.4
19.7
Luxury UpperUpscale Upscale UpperMidscaleMidscale Economy Unaffiliated*USPipeline,RoomsInConstruction,‘000sRooms,byScale,July2019
70%
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InConstructionRoomsAreDominatedByTwoPlayers:Hilton&Marriott
58%42%Hilton+MarriottAllOther
*USPipeline,RoomsInConstruction,ShareofHLT&MARoftotal,June2019
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TotalActivePipelineRooms:Over80%AreBrandedByThe“Big6”
82%
18%IHG,Choice,Hilton,Hyatt,Marriott,Wyndham
AllOther
*USActivePipeline,ShareofIHG,CHH,HLT,H,MAR,WYNoftotal,June2019
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LargeMarketsGrowRapidly
Market RoomsInConstruction %OfExisting New York, NY 14,755 12% Nashville, TN 5,304 12%
Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 3,658 8% Boston, MA 4,092 7% Dallas, TX 6,014 7%
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 3,137 7% Philadelphia, PA-NJ 3,084 6%
Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 6,150 6% Phoenix, AZ 3,777 6% Orlando, FL 7,297 6%
*USPipeline,RoomsI/Candas%ofExistingSupply,Largest%InTop26Markets,July2019
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SomeSmallerMSAsReportRapidGrowth
MSA RoomsIn
Construction %OfExisting Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI (MSA - 24340) 1,394 12%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC (MSA - 16740) 4,731 11% Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN (MSA - 34980) 5,384 11%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (MSA - 41940) 3,255 11% Austin-Round Rock, TX (MSA - 12420) 4,731 11%
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL (MSA - 37340) 870 9% Asheville, NC (MSA - 11700) 1,071 9% Savannah, GA (MSA - 42340) 1,474 9%
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC (MSA - 24860) 1,114 9%
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL (MSA - 18880) 894 8%
*USPipeline,RoomsI/Candas%ofExistingSupply,Largest%InTop110MSAs,July2019
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Portland,ORMarketPipeline
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Phase Projects Rooms
InConstruction 11 1,891
FinalPlanning 21 2,496
Planning 6 931
TotalUnderContractPipeline 38 5,318
TotalPortland,ORPipeline,byPhase,ProjectandRooms,August2019
Portland,ORPipeline:38ProjectsUnderContract
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OregonAreaMarketPipeline
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Phase Projects Rooms
InConstruction 3 285
FinalPlanning 15 1,375
Planning 8 704
TotalUnderContractPipeline 26 2,364
TotalOregonAreaPipeline,byPhase,ProjectandRooms,August2019
OregonAreaPipeline:26ProjectsUnderContract
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Forecast
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NotableCalendarShiftsImpactingUSLodgingPerformanceDatain2019:
Easter: ShiftfromMarchtoApril(alsoaffectsQ1/Q2)Passover: ShiftfromMarchtoApril(alsoaffectsQ1/Q2)Hanukkah: Shiftfrom12/3to12/23,impactingweeklyresultsWeekendNight: May/Sept/Decloose.July/Aug/Novgain.NotableMarketLevelEvents/Comps:SuperBowl: FromMinneapolistoAtlantaNorthCarolina: HurricaneFlorence9/14/2018andthereafterFlorida: HurricaneMichael10/10/18andthereafterCalifornia: Wildfires11/8through11/25/2018andthereafter
©2018STR.AllRightsReserved. 55
TotalUnitedStatesKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook(%Changevs.PriorYear)2019F–2020F
Outlook
Metric2019
Forecast2020
Forecast
Supply 1.9% 1.9%
Demand 2.1% 1.6%
Occupancy 0.2% -0.3%
ADR 1.4% 1.4%
RevPAR 1.6% 1.1%
asofAugust2019
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ForecastSummary(STR,CBREandPWCasofAugust2019)
2019 as
Supply 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
Demand 2.1% 1.8% 2.0%
Occupancy 0.2% -0.2% 0.0%
ADR 1.4% 1.1% 1.1%
RevPAR 1.6% 0.9% 1.1%
2020
Supply 1.9% 2.1% 1.9%
Demand 1.6% 1.3% 1.9%
Occupancy -0.3% -0.8% 0.0%
ADR 1.4% 2.0% 1.0%
RevPAR 1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
©2018STR.AllRightsReserved. 57
TotalUnitedStatesChainScaleKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook2019FbyChainScale 2019YearEndOutlook
ChainScaleOccupancy(%chg)
ADR(%chg)
RevPAR(%chg)
Luxury -1.1% 2.4% 1.3%UpperUpscale -0.4% 2.0% 1.5%
Upscale -0.7% 1.0% 0.3%UpperMidscale -0.1% 0.9% 0.8%
Midscale 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%Economy 1.0% 0.8% 1.8%
Independent 0.8% 1.6% 2.4%
TotalUnitedStates 0.2% 1.4% 1.6%
asofAugust2019
©2018STR.AllRightsReserved. 58
TotalUnitedStatesChainScaleKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook2020FbyChainScale 2020YearEndOutlook
ChainScaleOccupancy(%chg)
ADR(%chg)
RevPAR(%chg)
Luxury -0.2% 2.0% 1.8%UpperUpscale -0.3% 1.8% 1.5%
Upscale -0.4% 0.8% 0.4%UpperMidscale -0.2% .9% 0.7%
Midscale -0.2% 1.1% 0.8%Economy -0.4% 1.1% 0.7%
Independent -0.4% 1.5% 1.0%
TotalUnitedStates -0.3% 1.4% 1.1%
asofAugust2019
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2019ForecastPercentChangeTop25MarketsvsUnitedStates
-0.5
0.2
1.11.4
0.6
1.6
Top25Markets UnitedStates
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
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OddsandEnds…
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Consulting&Analytics
CustomForecasting• 5 yr. and 18-months Forecasts • 5 yr. and 18-months Forecasts
Consulting• Market evaluation for development • Ramp up analysis • Renovation analysis • Comp Set Analysis & Grading
CustomAnalysis• Custom templates and analyses • Corporate dashboards • Radial searches • Hotel Performance Mapping
HOST• Segmentation • STAR Rooms data • F&B STAR data • Additional Revenue
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CertificationinHotelIndustryAnalytics(CHIA)
STRandAHLEIhavepartneredtolaunchtheCertificationinHotelIndustryAnalyticsforavarietyofindustryprofessionals.• Therearefourcorecontentareas:
o HotelIndustryFoundationso HotelMathFundamentals–themetricsusedbythehotelindustryo PropertyLevelBenchmarking(STARReports)o HotelIndustryPerformanceReports
• Oneortwo-dayCHIAworkshopsareavailable• [email protected]
Questions? Presentationisavailablefordownload.Toviewthispresentation,click“STRDataPresentations”fromthedrop-downmenuonwww.HotelNewsNow.com.
©2018STR,Inc.AllRightsReserved.Anyreprint,useorrepublicationofallorapartofthispresentationwithoutthepriorwrittenapprovalofSTR,Inc.orSTRGlobal,Ltd.tradingasSTR(collectively“STR”)isstrictlyprohibited.AnysuchreproductionshallspecificallycreditSTRasthesource.ThispresentationisbasedondatacollectedbySTR.Nostrategicadviceormarketingrecommendationisintendedorimplied.
Thank You!
©2018STR,Inc.AllRightsReserved.Anyreprint,useorrepublicationofallorapartofthispresentationwithoutthepriorwrittenapprovalofSTR,Inc.orSTRGlobal,Ltd.tradingasSTR(collectively“STR”)isstrictlyprohibited.AnysuchreproductionshallspecificallycreditSTRasthesource.ThispresentationisbasedondatacollectedbySTR.Nostrategicadviceormarketingrecommendationisintendedorimplied.
ChaseOeserSr.BusinessDevelopmentExecutive
[email protected] www.str.com