U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014
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Transcript of U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014
U.S. office sector posts highest
quarterly absorption of the recovery
United States Office Review Q2 2014
Rents are running away from tenants in urbanized quality cores with level of increase expected to escalate due to capital demand (investment sales) having just as big of an impact on rent growth over the next 24 months as leasing demand due to increasingly bullish underwriting projections from sales / refinancings.
Fundamentals are tightening across markets, particularly
absorption and development
2
Source: JLL Research
Leasing activity • Q2 posted 61.9 million square feet of leasing activity.
• Leasing levels up 6.2 percent from Q1 2014.
• Compared to Q2 2013, leasing volume is up 0.2 percent.
Absorption
• Absorption levels increase, resulting in the 17th consecutive quarter of occupancy growth.
• The 13.9 million square feet of net absorption during Q2 represents the highest quarterly occupancy growth
during this cycle so far.
• This quarter’s biggest contributors to absorption were New York, Boston, Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia
Seattle, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Vacancy • Vacancy dropped by 30 basis points to a recovery low of 16.3 percent. This comes after two quarters at 16.6
percent.
• Both CBDs and suburbs played a role in this decline, falling to 13.7 percent and 18.0 percent, respectively.
Rents
• Despite improved market conditions, asking rents declined by 0.7 percent to $30.00 per square foot. This was
mostly the result of blocks of quality Class A space being taken off the market in many markets, compounded
with falling rents and elevated vacancy in Washington, DC.
• In supply-constrained CBDs, this was more pronounced, as rents fell by 1.0 percent. In the suburbs, asking
rents increased slightly to $24.23 per square foot.
Construction
• YTD construction starts have totaled almost 21.0 million square feet. This is nearly equal to all starts posted in
2013.
• Although Houston remains the leader in construction, 18 markets registered more than 1.0 million square feet
as volumes have jumped by 38.4 percent to 65.4 million square feet nationally.
Nearly half of all markets (49.0 percent) reported an increase in
leasing activity in Q2 compared to Q1
3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Up Neutral Down
Source: JLL Research
In turn, leasing volumes rose by 6.2 percent to 61.9 million
square feet after two consecutive quarters of declines
4
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leas
ing
activ
ity (
s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
While 0.2 percent higher than Q2 2013 leasing activity, this was
slightly below the Q2 average since 2007
5
62,856,296
62,499,312
54,446,297
66,724,307
67,948,333
63,411,335
61,762,387
61,906,383
0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000
Q2 2007
Q2 2008
Q2 2009
Q2 2010
Q2 2011
Q2 2012
Q2 2013
Q2 2014
Leasing activity (s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Outside of top markets, leasing activity relatively even across
geographies, similar to previous quarters
6
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000N
ew Y
ork
Chi
cago
Was
hing
ton,
DC
Los
Ang
eles
Bos
ton
Phi
lade
lphi
aD
alla
sS
an F
ranc
isco
Ora
nge
Cou
nty
New
Jer
sey
Den
ver
San
Die
goS
eattl
eP
hoen
ixS
ilico
n V
alle
yH
oust
onM
inne
apol
isP
ortla
ndS
t. Lo
uis
Fai
rfie
ld C
ount
yA
ustin
Cha
rlotte
Det
roit
Bal
timor
eO
akla
nd-E
ast B
ayIn
dian
apol
isM
iam
iP
ittsb
urgh
San
Fra
ncis
co P
enin
sula
Atla
nta
Sac
ram
ento
Kan
sas
City
Tam
paC
inci
nnat
iH
ampt
on R
oads
Cle
vela
ndC
olum
bus
Ral
eigh
-Dur
ham
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ndo
Wes
tche
ster
Cou
nty
Jack
sonv
ille
For
t Lau
derd
ale
Wes
t Pal
m B
each
Milw
auke
eLo
ng Is
land
Sal
t Lak
e C
ityS
an A
nton
ioR
ichm
ond
Leas
ing
activ
ity (
s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
38.9% 20.6% 40.5%
Q2 represents highest quarterly absorption throughout the
recovery so far (13.9 million square feet)
7
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Qua
rter
ly n
et a
bsor
ptio
n (a
s %
of i
nven
tory
)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing annual average
As a result, YTD absorption represents roughly 56.4 percent of
last year’s occupancy gains
8
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
YT
D n
et a
bsor
ptio
n (a
s %
of i
nven
tory
)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing
annual average
Class A space, both in CBDs and suburbs, continues to lead the
way in take-up of space
9
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Qua
rter
ly n
et a
bsor
ptio
n (s
.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
Although tech and energy continue to make strong gains in
absolute terms, their share of absorption is decreasing as the
recovery gains momentum elsewhere
10
Source: JLL Research
NYC and DC (*excludes Midtown South)
Tech markets (*includes Midtown South)
Energy markets
Sunbelt
All other markets
70.0%
29.7%
6.4%
2010
5.1%
33.5%
19.0%
18.4%
23.9%
2011
5.1%
33.5%
19.0%
18.4%
23.9%
2012
11.1%
21.6%
22.3%
18.6%
26.4%
2013
7.5%
25.2%
16.7% 24.6%
26.0%
2014
Only nine markets have experienced a net loss of occupancy
YTD, of which less than half are more than -200,000 square feet
11
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000N
ew Y
ork
Hou
ston
Atla
nta
Bos
ton
Sili
con
Val
ley
Los
Ang
eles
Pho
enix
Den
ver
Chi
cago
Sea
ttle-
Bel
levu
eB
altim
ore
Dal
las
Ora
nge
Cou
nty
San
Fra
ncis
coC
harlo
tteP
ortla
ndD
etro
itM
iam
iP
hila
delp
hia
St.
Loui
sS
alt L
ake
City
Milw
auke
eR
alei
gh-D
urha
mW
est P
alm
Bea
chC
inci
nnat
iF
ort L
aude
rdal
eF
airf
ield
Cou
nty
San
Fra
ncis
co P
enin
sula
Long
Isla
ndK
ansa
s C
ityM
inne
apol
isA
ustin
Sac
ram
ento
Col
umbu
sIn
dian
apol
isC
leve
land
San
Die
goH
ampt
on R
oads
Oak
land
-Eas
t Bay
Jack
sonv
ille
San
Ant
onio
Tam
pa B
ayW
estc
hest
er C
ount
yP
ittsb
urgh
Ric
hmon
dO
rland
oN
ew J
erse
yW
ashi
ngto
n, D
C
YT
D n
et a
bsor
ptio
n (s
.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Energy, tech and Sunbelt markets all posting above-average
absorption; Sunbelt surpassing energy in some cases
12
0.5%
1.0%
1.4%
1.0% 0.9%
1.0% 0.9%
2.1%
1.3% 1.4%
1.3%
0.7%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
YT
D n
et a
bsor
ptio
n (s
.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Energy Tech Sunbelt
U.S. average
Gains in NYC, Boston and much of the Sunbelt push up East
Coast to top share of absorption during Q2
13
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sha
re o
f qua
rter
ly n
et a
bsor
ptio
n
East Coast Central West Coast
Source: JLL Research
Even though Atlanta and South Florida are nearing 2013
absorption levels already, rest of the East Coast is catching up
14
Source: JLL Research
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net
abs
orpt
ion
(s.f.
)
Atlanta South Florida Rest of the East Coast
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net
abs
orpt
ion
(s.f.
)
Atlanta Chicago Los Angeles Miami Philadelphia Phoenix
Diversified markets hit another recovery high with 3.1 million
square feet of occupancy gains, this quarter led by Chicago
15
Source: JLL Research
Atlanta and Phoenix have
absorbed a combined 13.0
million square feet since
2010, or 65.1 percent of
cumulative total.
Quarterly Class B absorption over the past four quarters is taking
place 3.4x faster than from 2010 to Q2 2013…
16
Source: JLL Research
10,975,302 10,604,042
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2010-Q2 2013 Past four quarters
Cla
ss B
net
abs
orpt
ion
(s.f.
)
783,950 s.f. per quarter 2,651,011 s.f. per quarter
…although 5.8x as much Trophy and Class A space has been
absorbed than B and C during the same time period
17
Source: JLL Research
Trophy and Class A
net absorption
118.4 m.s.f.
2010-2014
Class B and C net
absorption
20.5 m.s.f.
2011-2014
Class A space saw its highest share of quarterly absorption this
quarter since Q2 2012
18
133.5%
93.9%
74.5% 76.3%
295.2%
98.5%
82.0% 78.3%
45.2%
73.4% 63.5%
80.9%
57.3%
82.3%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
300.0%
350.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Cla
ss A
sha
re o
f qua
rter
ly a
bsor
ptio
n
Source: JLL Research
At the same time, all total net absorption took place in Class A
space during Q2
19
166.2%
90.4% 88.8% 80.8%
100.0% 106.1%
74.8%
0.0%
88.1% 86.5%
49.6%
92.0%
48.8%
100.9%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Cla
ss A
sha
re o
f qua
rter
ly a
bsor
ptio
n
Source: JLL Research
Although higher than in Q1 2014, suburbs display the opposite,
trend, with only two-thirds of absorption in Class A space in Q2
20
116.9%
97.9%
62.3%
75.1%
167.8%
102.5%
84.3% 85.3%
43.2%
73.4% 72.8% 70.3%
61.1% 67.6%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Cla
ss A
sha
re o
f qua
rter
ly a
bsor
ptio
n
Source: JLL Research
Limited Class A options, particularly for larger tenants, have
boosted YTD Class B absorption in certain CBDs
21
2.7%
2.3% 2.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Milwaukee Oakland CBD Greenwich CBD Atlanta Phoenix Silicon Valley CBD
YT
D C
BD
Cla
ss B
net
abs
orpt
ion
(% o
f inv
ento
ry)
Source: JLL Research
U.S. average
Still, Class A continues to trump Class B according to most
indicators
22
Source: JLL Research
of absorbed space in 2014
has been Class A
per square foot difference
between Class A and B space…
rate at which Class A rates are growing
compared to Class B year-on-year
difference between Class A and
Class B total vacancy
Due to high levels of take-up, total vacancy fell by 579,661
square feet over the quarter to 16.3 percent, or 30 basis points
23
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tota
l vac
ancy
(%
)
Source: JLL Research
Still, vacancy levels remain closer to historical highs than lows
24
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Tota
l vac
ancy
(%
)
Source: JLL Research
Total vacancy is stable or declining in all segments of the market;
CBD Class A experiences largest drop (-50 basis points)
25
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tota
l vac
ancy
(%
)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
Industry Real estate footprint Most affected markets
State government Contracting California, Illinois, New Jersey
Federal government Contracting Washington, DC
Media/print Contracting LA, NYC
Finance/banking Contracting NYC, Charlotte, Chicago, Palm Beach, Pittsburgh
Law firms Contracting (rightsizing) Washington, DC, NYC, SF, Atlanta, LA
Consulting Contracting (rightsizing) NYC, Chicago, Washington, DC
Accounting Contracting (rightsizing) Chicago, NYC, LA
Telecom Stable NJ, Dallas, Atlanta
Retail/consumer goods Stable NYC, Atlanta, Los Angeles
Education Growing Everywhere
Media (digital and TV) Growing Atlanta, NYC, LA, Philadelphia, Washington, DC
Green energy/clean technology Growing Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley, Denver
Real estate (residential) Growing Southern CA, Nevada, AZ, FL, GA, Carolinas
Technology Growing Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Austin, Seattle, Portland, Midtown South NYC, Cambridge, MA
Shared office space providers / co-working spaces Growing All markets particularly coastal markets and Chicago
Natural gas/oil/energy Growing Denver, Houston, Dallas, Pittsburgh
Biotech/pharmaceutical Growing San Francisco, San Diego, NJ/Phil, Boston, RDU
Office growth being driven by atypical tenant industries
26
Source: JLL Research
Demographics and technology are driving productivity and
utilization and the next evolution of office space use
27
Source: JLL Research
15%
space reduction by
U.S. law firms and
financial services
relocating
72%
of global CREs plan
to aggressively
increase density in
next 3 years
150
Square-foot-per-
employee average
target density, down
from 225 in 2009
50%
of the U.S.
workforce was
baby boomers in
2010. Gen Y will
be 50% by 2020
Many of these changes show stark pre- and post-recession
contrasts
28
Source: JLL Research
Floor plates
Floor plates are up
from 25,000
square feet before
the recession to
60,000 square
feet.
Personal space
Before the
recession,
employees had
around 300 s.f. per
person; now they
have 200 s.f.
Interaction
Employees have
gone from rarely
running into others
to a nine-in-ten
change of bumping
into a coworker.
Building features
Aesthetic and
building features
such as increased
roof heights and
floor-to-ceiling
windows are “in.”
And, as a result, law firms are shifting
29
Source: JLL Research
15.2% Giveback by law firm
across the U.S. when
relocating
20.5% Giveback by law firm
across the top seven U.S.
markets when relocating
24.7% Giveback by law firm
across DC when
relocating
• Going digital
• Elimination of law libraries
• One-sized fits all office
• Higher administrative ratios
• Migration to glass boxes
• Migration to long and lean
• Migration to smaller floorplates
Consulting and accounting are shifting
30
Source: JLL Research
25.0% Giveback by consulting
firms across the U.S.
when relocating
225 s.f. Average space per
consultant in
years past
90 s.f. Average space per
consultant in the most
efficient firms today
• Benching
• Work flexibly and client officing
• Offices gone, collaboration rooms in
• Increasingly looking at new
construction to meet efficiency
standards
• Industry giving back most space
Technology companies are shifting
31
Source: JLL Research
22.0% Percent increase in
high-tech service jobs
since 2009
13.6% Total vacancy in core tech
markets, compared to 16.3
percent nation-wide
2.2% Growth in
core tech market
rents in 2014
• Benching is standard
• Less personal space, more shared
and amenity space
• “Open hangar” design preferred
• Migration to Class B+ with
character
• Space viewed as core to culture
• Remote work is waning
Banks are shifting
32
Source: JLL Research
10.1% Give-back by average bank
across the U.S. when
renewing (flat headcount)
86.0% Percent of banking
transactions that no
longer need a teller
66.0% Percent of surveyed
banks planning to
reduce CRE footprint
• Regulation and cost pressures
forcing portfolio consolidation
• Offices shrinking
• Business units competing
• Branch reductions common
• Increasing importance of back
office (second- and third-tier
markets)
• Remote working increasing
Even the federal government is shifting
33
Source: JLL Research
170 s.f. Target utilization rate per
employee for federally
leased space
$1.7 billion Amount spent annually
by the GSA for properties
deemed underutilized
15.9% Average give-back by
GSA across Metro DC
in FY 2013
• Telecommuting
• Benching
• Co-locations
• Minimal funds to implement
• Consolidations in low cost
buildings/submarkets
• Migration to off-center locations
• Disposition of underutilized
assets.
As office-using employment increases by 199,000 net new jobs,
vacancy declines to 16.3 percent
34
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
26,000
26,500
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Tota
l vac
ancy
(%
)
Offi
ce-u
sing
em
ploy
men
t (th
ousa
nds)
Office-using employment (thousands) Total vacancy (%)
Source: JLL Research
CBD and suburban vacancy both inch downward, this quarter to
13.7 percent and 18.0 percent, respectively
35
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
Tota
l vac
ancy
(%
)
Source: JLL Research
Following declines in total and direct vacancy, sublease space
falls to 53.7 million square feet, or 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter
36
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sub
leas
e sp
ace
(s.f.
)
Source: JLL Research
After 13 consecutive quarters of growth, rents decline slightly
due to Class A space removals and drops in Washington, DC and
Downtown Manhattan
37
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Qua
rter
ly r
ent g
row
th (
%)
Source: JLL Research
Year-on-year, rents are still rising faster than before, up 2.7 and
1.7 percent for Class A and B space, respectively
38
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ave
rage
ask
ing
rent
s ($
p.s
.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
U.S. office market continues to move along the clock as fewer
available options exist for tenants, spurring development
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Atlanta, Indianapolis, Jacksonville Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, Tampa, United States
Miami, Milwaukee, Oakland-East Bay,
Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham, Richmond, San Diego
Columbus, Long Island, Orlando,
Washington, DC
Dallas, San Francisco Peninsula
Charlotte, Chicago, Cincinnati, Fairfield County, Fort
Lauderdale, San Antonio, St. Louis, Westchester County
Houston, San Francisco, Silicon Valley
West Palm Beach
Cleveland, Minneapolis, Orange County, Phoenix
New Jersey
Baltimore, Detroit, Hampton Roads, Kansas City,
Sacramento
New York, Portland
Austin, Pittsburgh, Seattle-Bellevue
Boston, Denver
Source: JLL Research
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
CBDs remain in the lead, with falling vacancy pushing rents in
cores of San Francisco, Houston and Portland up 4.0 percent
Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia
Boston, New York (Midtown), Tampa,
United States
Seattle, Miami
Charlotte, Dallas, Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles,
Milwaukee, Orlando, Westchester County
Austin, Houston
Baltimore, Sacramento,
West Palm Beach
Kansas City, New York (Downtown),
Phoenix, Richmond, San Antonio
Fairfield County, Indianapolis, Minneapolis
Columbus, San Diego,
Washington, DC
Pittsburgh, Portland, San Jose CBD
Chicago, Cleveland,
Oakland CBD, Raleigh-Durham
New York (Midtown South), San Francisco
Denver
Cincinnati, Detroit
Salt Lake City
St. Louis
Source: JLL Research
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
The suburbs are also on the rise, having witnessed quarterly rent
growth of 3.6 percent year-on-year
Cleveland, Jacksonville, Long Island (Nassau),
Milwaukee, Orange County, Portland, St. Louis,
United States
Denver, Indianapolis, Tampa
Chicago, Detroit, Miami,
Northern Delaware
Long Island (Suffolk)
Dallas, Silicon Valley
Atlanta, Baltimore, Bellevue (non-CBD), Boston,
East Bay, Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia, San Diego, Seattle
Houston, San Francisco (non-CBD)
Northern and Central New Jersey,
Northern Virginia, Orlando,
Suburban Maryland, West Palm Beach Cincinnati, Fairfield County, Hampton Roads (South), Minneapolis,
Oakland Suburbs, Sacramento, San Antonio, Westchester County
Cambridge, San Francisco Peninsula
Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, Hampton Roads
(Peninsula), Kansas City, Raleigh-Durham
Phoenix, Richmond, Salt Lake City
Austin, Los Angeles
Pittsburgh
Bellevue CBD
Southern New Jersey
Source: JLL Research
After spiking, CBD rents fall due to removals of quality space;
suburban rents on the up quarterly and are more stable
42
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Qua
rter
ly r
ent g
row
th (
%)
CBD rent growth Suburban rent growth
Source: JLL Research
CBD average: 0.9%
Suburban average: 0.2%
As a result of drops in CBDs due to removals and steady
improvement in the suburbs, the gap has narrowed by $0.27 per
square foot
43
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ave
rage
ask
ing
rent
($
p.s.
f)
CBD Suburbs
Source: JLL Research
$11.36
$15.59
A similar trend has emerged regarding the Class A premium vs.
overall rents, which is down $0.05 per square foot to $4.97 per
square foot compared to Q1
44
$3.40 $3.49 $3.49
$3.53
$3.68
$3.81
$3.97 $3.99
$4.21 $4.26
$4.37 $4.38
$4.86
$4.71
$4.82 $4.76
$4.97 $4.92
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cla
ss A
pre
miu
m (
$ p.
s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
After jumping up earlier in the year, concessions have flatlined of
late
45
3.5
4.1
5.1
6.1 6.2
5.7 5.5
5.3 5.3
$23.00
$24.00
$25.00
$26.00
$27.00
$28.00
$29.00
$30.00
$31.00
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TI a
llow
ance
($
p.s.
f.)
Fre
e m
onth
s of
ren
t
Free months of rent TI allowance ($ p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
New supply coming to market is slowly increasing, but still well
below historic norms
46
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Com
plet
ions
(s.
f.)
Source: JLL Research
Average annual completions
The vast majority of new completions are Class A, the majority
of which is arriving in suburban markets rather than CBDs
47
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014
YT
D c
ompl
etio
ns (
s.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
Construction volumes jumped 38.4 percent compared to YE
2013, led by Houston
48
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Und
er c
onst
ruct
ion
(s.f.
)
Source: JLL Research
The majority of new construction is now in suburbs rather than
CBDs and the share continues to grow thanks to Silicon Valley,
Dallas, Austin and Houston, in particular
49
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sha
re o
f con
stru
ctio
n
CBD Suburbs
Source: JLL Research
35.3 percent of markets reported an increase in construction starts
over the quarter…
50
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Up Neutral Down
Source: JLL Research
…resulting in almost 21.0 million square feet of starts during the
first half of the year, nearly equivalent to all of 2013’s starts
51
11,843,789
18,490,244 17,558,896
22,251,850
20,986,559
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014
Con
stru
ctio
n st
arts
(s.
f.)
Source: JLL Research
Houston once again leads construction starts, with Silicon Valley
and Washington, DC close behind
52
2,545,988
1,982,305
1,579,746
743,205 648,170
358,000 321,000 247,836 242,969
188,968 118,000 100,000 60,000 32,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Con
stru
ctio
n st
arts
(s.
f.)
Source: JLL Research
Strong preleasing activity is helping new developments go ahead,
but is also reducing the ability to ease supply constraints
53
Source: JLL Research
San Francisco: 65.0%
Washington, DC: 44.0%
New York: 54.6%
Chicago: 41.8%
Atlanta: 55.0%
Houston: 55.5%
Seattle: 65.0%
Most landlords and investors of U.S. office product are optimistic about the recovery across most markets, but more pessimistic in terms of placing all of their capital allocations ahead. Already challenges have developed for capital allocation in many coastal gateways and we are seeing the same yield compression and broader buyer pool develop in more adjusted risk-adjustment segments too recently.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2014
John Sikaitis
Managing Director – Office and Local Markets Research
+1 202 719 5839
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst, Office and Economy Research
+1 202 719 6295
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