U.S. Nuclear Program – A Status Report
-
Upload
athena-kinney -
Category
Documents
-
view
35 -
download
0
description
Transcript of U.S. Nuclear Program – A Status Report
U.S. Nuclear Program – A Status Report
APPA Board of Directors Meeting
Marvin S. FertelPresident and Chief Executive Officer
September 14, 2010
Sustaining Excellent Reactor Performance
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
'81 '85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09
Record electricity production in recent years
Produces 20% of electricity with 10% of U.S. capacity
50
60
70
80
90
100
'81 '85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09
Nuclear energy dominates CO2-free electricity portfolio
Most reliable electricity producer at 90% capacity factor
2009: 799 billion kilowatt-hours
2009: 90.5% capacity factor
Strong Public Support Continues
74% Favor Use of Nuclear
Energy
87% Favor
RenewingLicenses
87%Important
forOur Energy
Future
70%DefinitelyBuild NewReactors
77%Acceptable
atNearest
Site
Source: Bisconti Research Inc./Gfk Roper
March 2010 poll of 1,000 U.S. adults; margin of error is +/- 3%
U.S. Public Opinion 1983 – 2010: Favorability to the Use of Nuclear Energy for Electricity
Annual Averages Until 2010, Percentages
Bisconti Research, Inc. survey of 1,000 U.S. adults; margin of error +/- 3 percentage points
U.S. Public Opinion: Acceptability of Adding a New Reactor
Next to Nearest Operating Nuclear Power Plant (2005 – 2010)
Percentages
Bisconti Research, Inc. survey of 1,000 U.S. adults; margin of error +/- 3 percentage points
Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Nuclear Plant Uprates
Uprate Highlights
5,744 MW of power uprates approved since 1977
3,526 MW of uprates under review and expected to be implemented by 2014
Plant Completions
Watts Bar 1123 Mwe (under construction)
Bellefonte Unit 1 & 2 1256 Mwe (construction suspended – being considered)
59 Granted
18 Under NRC Review 21 Intend to Renew
Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
6 Unannounced
Preparing for Longer-Term Operation
DOE and EPRI collaborating on extended operation
Industry investing in extended operation through replacements, upgrades and uprates
EIA’s 2010 Annual Energy Outlook reference case assumes 41 nuclear units will operate beyond 60 years
License RenewalsContinue ...
Obama Administration ActionsThat Support Nuclear Energy Expansion
Significantly improved and expanded the loan guarantee program– Announced $8.3 billion loan guarantee for Southern Co.’s
$2.0 billion for AREVA Uranium Enrichment Plant– $36 billion increase in loan volume in FY 2011 budget
$73.8 million in clean energy manufacturing tax credits awarded too nuclear manufacturers
Nominated three qualified candidates for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
22 reactors under active review at NRC– First licenses late 2011, early 2012
Nuclear plant design certification– Three design certifications in progress– Two previously certified designs being updated
First movers have started site preparation, ordered long-lead components
Expect four to eight reactors in commercial operation 2016-2018
U.S. manufacturing supply chain growing
Snapshot of New Nuclear Plant Development
Cost of Electricity from Nuclear and Gas-Fired Capacity
Technology NuclearGas
(Combined Cycle)
Project Structure
PF with LG
80% Debt20% Equity
RB with CWIP
50% Debt50% Equity
PF
50% Debt50% Equity
EPC Cost ($/kWe)
$4,000 - 4,500 $1,000
Total Cost($/kWe)
$5,500-$6,100
$4,800-$5,400
$1,200 $1,200 $1,200
Fuel Cost (nuclear - $/MWh)(coal/gas - $/mmBtu)
$7.50 $4.00 $7.00 $10.00
Capacity (MWe)
1,400 400
First Year Busbar (2009 $/MWh)
$75 - 81 $106 - $116 $56 $76 $97
Levelized Busbar(2009 $/MWh)
NA $80 - $86 NA NA NA
Impact of C02 Price at $30/Ton(2009 $/MWh)
NA NA Add $18.00
Source: NEI Financial ModelPF – Project Finance, RB – Rate Base, CWIP – Construction Work in Progress, LG – Loan Guarantee
4753
6460
58 56
100%94%
82% 80%
63%
Construction Cost(% of First of a Kind)
Construction Duration(Months)
1995 1998 2002 2004 2010 ~ 2011
63%
Learning Curve Opportunity – Korean Example
39
Goal
Yonggwang3, 4
Ulchin3, 4
Shin Wolsong 1, 2
Yonggwang5, 6
Ulchin5, 6
Shin Kori 1, 2
Reactors Under Construction and Planned Worldwide
2311
42
61222
11112
11
3314
2012
69
622
222
1
ChinaRussia
IndiaJapan
S. KoreaUS
China, TaiwanBulgariaUkraine
ArgentinaIran
PakistanFrance
SlovakiaBrazil
Finland
Under construction
Planned
Sources: International Atomic Energy Agency for units under construction and World Nuclear Association for units on order or planned.
*Chart includes only countries with units under construction. **Countries planning new units are not all included in the chart.
Planned units = Approvals, funding or major commitment in place, mostly expected in operation within 8-10 years.
Updated: 8/10
Totals: 61 units under construction* 149 units on order or planned**
Advanced Reactor Technologies Small modular reactors (25-350 Mwe)
– Light water, high temperature and fast reactors– Generation, process heat and improve fuel use– Could be under construction in 10 years– Built in modules at a factory and shipped to site– T&D planning activities reduced– Potential replacements for old inefficient coal plants– Time to market -- six years assuming an ESP – Need more design information before economic
assessments can be completed
Summary of Studies on Climate Change Mitigation
New Nuclear Generation Capacity Required
Source Study /AnalysisNumber of
new reactors*
Gigawatts
Timeframe
Energy Information Administration
Annual Energy Outlook 2010 6 8 2035Kerry/Lieberman, American Power Act (2010)
52 72 2035
Waxman/Markey (2009) 69 96 2030Lieberman/Warner (2008) 191 268 2030
Environmental Protection Agency
Kerry/Lieberman, American Power Act (2010)
181 253 2050
Waxman/Markey (2009) 187 262 2050Lieberman/Warner (2008) 179 250 2050
National Academy of Sciences
America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation (2009)
77 108 2035
Electric Power Research Institute
Prism/Merge Analyses: 2009 Update
46 64 2030
McKinsey & CompanyU.S. Greenhouse Gas Abatement Mapping Initiative - Mid-Range Case (2007)
18 25 2030
*Based on a 1,400 MW average nuclear plant.
Administration terminating the Yucca Mountain project– Blue ribbon commission to develop recommendations
on used fuel management Interim storage safe, securefor indefinite period of time Used fuel issues not an
impediment to operatingreactors or new plantdevelopment
Used Nuclear Fuel: The New Reality
On-site storage for used fuel at the Surry station in Virginia
Political Agenda
Relationship strengthening/building and education
NRC Commissioners Nomination/Confirmation
Energy Policy Positions– Financing platform– Tax issues– Licensing clarifications
Nuclear Waste Policy Act
Political Agenda
Oppose imposition of inappropriate new costs– D&D tax– Increase in decommissioning fund tax rate
NRC oversight
Conclusions
Current 104 units sustained good performance Industry pursuing plant uprates ~ 3500 MW’s+ Industry pursuing license renewal – all 104 units
– Greater than 60 years operation being explored New plants – 4-8 reactors in commercial operation
2016 – 2018 New small modular reactors being developed Significant expansion of nuclear necessary to meet
80 percent CO₂ reduction by 2050