U.S. Light Duty Diesel Engine Benefits · The Martec Group is a global technical marketing research...
Transcript of U.S. Light Duty Diesel Engine Benefits · The Martec Group is a global technical marketing research...
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Webinar
U.S. Light Duty Diesel Engine Benefits
C H I C A G O • D E T R O I T • G R E E N B A Y • F R A N K F U R T • S H A N G H A I • B E I J I N G
THE MARTEC GROUP
September 23, 2015
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Diesel Technology Forum would like to further understand the benefits oflight and heavy duty diesel engines to the fleet.
Project Request
Diesel Technology Forum would like to undertake research on the benefits of new technology dieselengines in the US market.
• There is significant (media) interest in alternative fuels and battery based technologies such ashybrids and EVs and there needs to be a strong message to promote the benefits and value ofNTDE in light duty applications
• The goal is to provide new perspectives and information on proven diesel societal benefits andfuture potential gains in order to educate policymakers and the media
• State-based benefits analysis is needed to expand the targeted outreach and media targetsbeyond the national level.
The Martec Group is a global technical marketing research firm with deep experience in competitivepowertrain technology assessments.
• Experienced in the diesel engine technology market, supporting the Diesel Technology Forumwith a similar study on new diesel engine benefits in 2013
• For this engagement, we propose to develop and deliver an updated comprehensive study thatwill be successfully incorporated into the Forum’s strategic plans.
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Light Duty Objectives
Analyze historic fuel savings and CO2 reductions for 2005-2014 light duty diesel vehicles
• Aggregated by cars, trucks, and HD pickups
• National and state specific fuel savings
Targeted states to include CA and additional targets as necessary
Project potential future fuel savings and CO2 reductions for 2013-2020 for the same scenario ofvehicles and markets as above
• This projection will be based on available 3rd party forecasting information, CAFÉregulation estimates for diesel technology adoption, and projected future dieselpowertrain announcements
Biodiesel benefit analysis
• The above forecasting scenario will then be run with various levels of biodiesel in placeof B0 reference fuel and the benefits will be recalculated
• B5, B10, B20
Analyze the potential fuel and CO2 savings and generate an appropriate comparisons
• SPR, Imported oil (OPEC, Saudi Arabia, etc.), cars off the road, value of CO2 saved versusbattery factory grants, equivalent solar panel sprawl, etc.
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Methodology will follow previous study… Registration data, fuel economyvalues and average VMT will be used to calculate benefits to the fleet.
Inputs and Assumptions Provided by DTF/Martec
Output and Analysis of Data Provided by Martec
Light-duty• Polk registration data for U.S. and state
specific registrations of passenger cars, light trucks, and HD pickups.
• Actual fuel economy benefits for diesel options over equivalently performing gasoline option.
• Average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) of 15,000 miles per year
Methodology for Historic Diesel Vehicle Savings
Light-duty• Class level savings for each model
year for the U.S. based on actual registrations and EPA estimated emission rates.
• These class level savings are summed up to generate a cumulative savings to date for new technology diesel powertrains.
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Light Duty – National & California
Savings to NTDE Buyer – Light Duty
National – Forecast
THE MARTEC GROUP 5
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Analysis of registration data for diesel vehicles in the U.S. yields acumulative savings curve for fuel and CO2 savings.
Inputs and Assumptions Output and Analysis
• Polk registration data for U.S. and state specific registrations of passenger cars, light trucks, and HD pickups.
• Actual fuel economy benefits for diesel options over equivalently performing gasoline option.
• Average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) of 15,000 miles per year
Methodology for Historic Diesel Vehicle Savings
• Vehicle level savings for each model year by U.S. total and for selected states based on actual registrations and average savings over gasoline equivalent powertrains.
• These vehicle level savings are summed up to generate a cumulative savings to date for diesel powertrains.
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Diesel engines sold between 2005 and 2014 have saved ~1.5B gallons of fuel.
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million Gallons
Cumulative Diesel Savings – U.S. Market
Total savings for cars, light trucks, and HD pickupsAssumes average VMT of 15,000 miles/year
Gasoline = 8,887gCO2 /gal. Diesel = 10,180gCO2 /gal.
U.S. Market
Total Savings1.5B gallons36M barrels
9.7M tonnes CO2
Number of Models
11 14 11 11 16 15 17 19
Lt. TruckPass. Car
HD Pickup
29 29
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Passenger car diesel sales and savings have exploded in the last 3 years.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million Gallons
Cumulative Diesel Savings – Passenger Car
Total savings for passenger carAssumes average VMT of 15,000 miles/year
Gasoline = 8,887gCO2 /gal. Diesel = 10,180gCO2 /gal.
U.S. Market
2014 Diesel VehiclesAudi A3Audi A6Audi A7Audi A8BMW 3-seriesBMW 5-seriesChevy CruzeMercedes E-ClassMercedes S-ClassVolkswagen BeetleVolkswagen GolfVolkswagen JettaVolkswagen Passat
Total Savings80M gallons1.9M barrels
0.4M tonnes CO2
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Light duty Ram pickup diesel application is responsible for significantsavings between 2013 and 2014.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gasoline = 8,887gCO2 /gal. Diesel = 10,180gCO2 /gal.
Million Gallons
Cumulative Diesel Savings – Light Truck
Total savings for light trucksAssumes average VMT of 15,000 miles/year
U.S. Market
2014 Diesel VehiclesAudi Q5Audi Q7BMW X3BMW X5Dodge RamJeep Grand CherokeeMercedes GLMercedes GLKMercedes MLMercedes RPorsche CayenneVolkswagen Touareg Total Savings
48M gallons1.1M barrels
0.2M tonnes CO2
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
2005-2014 Chrysler, Ford and GM HD diesel pickup trucks have saved the USconsumer 1.4B gallons of fuel.
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gasoline = 8,887gCO2 /gal. Diesel = 10,180gCO2 /gal.
Million Gallons
Cumulative Diesel Savings – HD Pickup
Total savings for HD pickupsAssumes average VMT of 15,000 miles/year
U.S. Market
Diesel VehiclesDodge RamFord F-SeriesChevrolet SilveradoGMC Sierra
Total Savings1.4B gallons33M barrels
9.1M tonnes CO2
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Since 2005, new diesel vehicles in the state of California have saved theenvironment nearly 850,000 tonnes of CO2.
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million Gallons
Cumulative Diesel Savings – California
Total savings for cars, light trucks, and HD pickupsAssumes average VMT of 15,000 miles/year
Gasoline = 8,887gCO2 /gal. Diesel = 10,180gCO2 /gal.
Total Savings126M gallons3.1M barrels
0.85M tonnes CO2
Pass Car/ Lt. Truck
7%
HD Pickup
93%
Benefits by Vehicle Type
CA Market
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Putting the numbers into perspective…
The 3.9M light-duty new technology diesels introduced from 2005 through 2014 have saved theAmerican consumer:
• 9.7M tonnes of CO2
• 1.5B gallons of gasoline
• 36M barrels of crude oil
These reductions are equivalent to:
• Removing 2.0M vehicles from the road for a year
• Carbon sequestration from 8.0M acres of forests
This is an equivalent forest the size of Maryland
• Societal savings of $380M based on U.S. government value of CO2 ($39/ton)
• Roughly 14% of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for sweet crude.
U.S. Market
“Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 “ Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon ,May 2013
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Light Duty – National & California
Savings to NTDE Buyer – Light Duty
National – Forecast
THE MARTEC GROUP 13
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Diesel fuel prices are now trending very closely to gasoline: improving thepayback for choosing the technology.
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Jan 02,2006
Jan 02,2007
Jan 02,2008
Jan 02,2009
Jan 02,2010
Jan 02,2011
Jan 02,2012
Jan 02,2013
Jan 02,2014
Jan 02,2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Diesel ($/Gal)
Gasoline ($/Gal)
Source: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Pricing, Sept. 14 2015
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Passenger car diesel owners will stop to refuel 9.5 less times per year.
Savings to the clean diesel
buyer
Per Year 54 Month Ownership
Fuel savings - gallons 138 623
Fuel savings - bbl 3.3 15
Fuel cost savings $210 $960
CO2 savings – metric tones 0.65 3.0
Refueling trips saved 9.5 43
Passenger Car
Assumptions: • Fuel savings based on Polk sales weighted average of diesel vehicles for 2014.• DOE Average gasoline and diesel prices for the U.S. as of 4/20/15. Gasoline = $2.49 Diesel = $2.78• CO2 conversion based on EPA’s content per gallon.• While not specifically evaluated in this study, other reports and data from used car sales indicate that diesel
powered vehicles retain a higher residual value compared to gasoline counterparts.
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Customers that choose the light duty diesel in a SUV will reduce theircarbon footprint by 6.1 metric tons.
Savings to the clean diesel
buyer
Per Year 54 Month Ownership
Fuel savings - gallons 247 1,100
Fuel savings - bbl 5.9 26.4
Fuel cost savings $423 $1,900
CO2 savings – metric tones 1.4 6.1
Refueling trips saved 10 45
Light Duty Truck
Assumptions: • Fuel savings based on Polk sales weighted average of diesel vehicles for 2014.• DOE Average gasoline and diesel prices for the U.S. as of 4/20/15. Gasoline = $2.49 Diesel = $2.78• CO2 conversion based on EPA’s content per gallon.• While not specifically evaluated in this study, other reports and data from used car sales indicate that diesel
powered vehicles retain a higher residual value compared to gasoline counterparts.
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
The average diesel engine in a heavy duty pickup saves the customer~$3,600 in fuel over the typical ownership cycle.
Savings to the clean diesel
buyer
Per Year 54 Month Ownership
Fuel savings - gallons 418 1,880
Fuel savings - bbl 10 45
Fuel cost savings $795 $3,600
CO2 savings – metric tones 2.7 11.9
Refueling trips saved 14 65
Heavy Duty Pickup Truck
Assumptions: • Fuel savings based on Polk sales weighted average of diesel vehicles for 2014.• DOE Average gasoline and diesel prices for the U.S. as of 4/20/15. Gasoline = $2.49 Diesel = $2.78• CO2 conversion based on EPA’s content per gallon.• While not specifically evaluated in this study, other reports and data from used car sales indicate that diesel
powered vehicles retain a higher residual value compared to gasoline counterparts.
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Light Duty – National & California
Savings to NTDE Buyer – Light Duty
National – Forecast
THE MARTEC GROUP 18
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Baseline assumptions for diesel engine growth yield a 7% market share andover 1.2M new diesel sales per year by 2020.
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
New Technology Diesel Engine Sales Forecast – U.S. Market
Market Share ForecastAggressive Scenario = 10%Baseline Scenario = 7%Conservative Scenario = 4%
Aggressive
Baseline
Conservative
Total sales for cars, light trucks, and HD pickups based on future EPA compliance paths, fuel requirement changes under RFS2 and ARB LCFS and announced OEM diesel vehicle introductions.
Forecast
2012-2014 Actual Diesel Sales
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Forecasted diesel savings for new diesel sales are expected to save 1.5-2.3Bgallons of gasoline.
Cumulative Diesel Engine Savings – U.S. Market
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million Gallons
Aggressive2.3B gallons12.4M tonnes CO2
Baseline1.8B gallons10.4M tonnes CO2
Conservative1.5B gallons9.1M tonnes CO2
Total savings for cars, light trucks, and HD pickupsAssumes average VMT of 15,000 miles/year
Gasoline = 8,887gCO2 /gal. Diesel = 10,180gCO2 /gal.
Forecast
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Forecasted diesel savings for new passenger car diesel sales are expected tosave 0.1-0.5B gallons of gasoline.
Cumulative Diesel Engine Savings – U.S. Market Passenger Cars
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100
200
300
400
500
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million Gallons
Aggressive0.5B gallons2.3M tonnes CO2
Baseline0.3B gallons1.5M tonnes CO2
Conservative0.1B gallons0.6M tonnes CO2
Total savings for passenger carsAssumes average VMT of 15,000 miles/year
Gasoline = 8,887gCO2 /gal. Diesel = 10,180gCO2 /gal.
Forecast
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Forecasted diesel savings for new light truck diesel sales are expected tosave 0.2-0.4B gallons of gasoline.
Cumulative Diesel Engine Savings – U.S. Market Light Trucks
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million Gallons
Aggressive0.4B gallons1.8M tonnes CO2
Baseline0.3B gallons1.1M tonnes CO2
Conservative0.2B gallons0.7M tonnes CO2
Total savings for light trucksAssumes average VMT of 15,000 miles/year
Gasoline = 8,887gCO2 /gal. Diesel = 10,180gCO2 /gal.
Forecast
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Forecasted diesel savings for new heavy duty pickup truck diesel sales areexpected to save 1.0-1.2B gallons of gasoline.
Cumulative Diesel Engine Savings – U.S. Market HD Pickups
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million Gallons
Aggressive1.3B gallons8.3M tonnes CO2
Baseline1.2B gallons7.8M tonnes CO2
Conservative1.2B gallons7.8M tonnes CO2
Total savings for HD pickupsAssumes average VMT of 15,000 miles/year
Gasoline = 8,887gCO2 /gal. Diesel = 10,180gCO2 /gal.
Forecast
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THE MARTEC GROUP CONFIDENTIAL
Light-duty Diesel Engine Summary
Recall, 2005-2014 light duty diesel engines have saved the American consumer:
• 9.7M tonnes of CO2
• 1.5B gallons of gasoline
• 36M barrels of crude oil
• Societal savings of $380M based on U.S. government value of CO2 ($39/ton)
Conservative estimates of fuel savings and CO2 reductions for new light duty diesel enginesintroduced between 2013-2020 will save American consumers an additional:
• 9.1M tonnes of CO2
• 1.5B gallons of gasoline
• 36M barrels of crude oil
• Societal savings of $355M based on U.S. government value of CO2 ($39/ton)
Increased usage of B20 biodiesel will have an additional positive savings for America.
• Up to a conservatively estimated 300M gallons of fuel
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THE MARTEC GROUP 25
Thank you for your attention.
martecgroup.com
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