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US Higher Education Market: Size and Trends
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Transcript of US Higher Education Market: Size and Trends
US Higher Education Market Forest Baker
June 2015
US Higher Ed market consists of 28.3M postsecondary students
(undergrad and grad). For-profit schools account for only 12%.
20M (71%)
5M (17%)
3.5M (12%)
Total students enrolled in postsecondary institutions 2012-2013
Public
Private
For-Profit
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds
Enrollments peaked in 2010 for Public and For-Profit.
For-profits have had an annual growth rate of 10%.
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Public
Private
For-Profit
CAGR = 1%
CAGR = 2%
CAGR = 10%
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds
US Higher Ed market consists of >7K postsecondary institutions.
For-Profits are 47% of institutions, but have only 12% of students.
2K (27%)
1.8K (25%)
3.4K (47%)
Total postsecondary institutions in the US that award federal student aid by control of institution
Public
Private
For-Profit
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds
The # of For-Profit institutions has been growing 3% annually.
The # of Public and Private schools has remained flat.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Public
Private
For-Profit
CAGR = 3%
CAGR = 0%
CAGR = 0%
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds
Graduate students make up only 13% of postsecondary
students.
24.5M (87%)
3.8M (13%)
Total students enrolled in postsecondary institutions 2012-2013
Undergraduate
Graduate
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds
Undergrad enrollments peaked in 2010.
Graduate enrollment has grown consistently without spikes.
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Undergraduate
Graduate
CAGR = 2%
CAGR = 2%
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds
Majority of grad students are split between Public and Private
schools, with For-Profits accounting for only 12% of grad students.
1.8M (47%)
1.6M (42%)
0.5M (12%)
Grad students enrolled in postsecondary institutions 2012-2013
Public
Private
For-Profit
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds
Grad student enrollments have been flat for Public schools, but have
been growing for Private and For-Profit (both peaking in 2010).
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Public
Private
For-Profit
CAGR = 0%
CAGR = 2%
CAGR = 11%
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds
Growth in tuition costs at Public and Private accelerated after
2000.
http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2015/05/the-real-cost-of-college/393086/
Unemployment for recent grads may not be the real issue.
Reduced earnings may be the bigger challenge.
25% Increase in unemployment rate for 18-24 college compared to 2006. This statistic overstates the magnitude of the problem: 2006 = 4% 2015 = 5% Reduced earnings may be the bigger challenge (see chart). Going to a top school may not be “the” casual factor for employment. Simply being the kind of person who could get into a top school may be key. http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/business/dalekrueger_More_Selective_College.pdf
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/the-new-normal-for-young-workers/393560/
Profile of For-Profit students: Older (24+) and 48% are white.
Healthcare degrees accounts for 42% of credentials earned.
3K+ Number of institutions
865K Number of credentials awarded in 2011
http://www.apscu.org