US Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Policy Trends and Challenges · Fuel Cells –to 2016 30% to $3,000 /kW...
Transcript of US Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Policy Trends and Challenges · Fuel Cells –to 2016 30% to $3,000 /kW...
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US Fuel Cell and Hydrogen PolicyTrends and Challenges
F-cell 2011
Stuttgart, 26 Sept. 2011
Robert Rose
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The Bottom Line
Fuel cell markets in the U.S. are growing
• Third party financial support is crucial in power markets
• Business case is driving forklift markets
Federal policy focus remains on batteries, but
• Growing recognition of the realities of the battery pathway and value of fuel cells
• New openness in the Obama Administration
Strong support in some states
Divided political leadership makes national policy progress difficult
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U.S. Markets
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U.S. Fuel Cell Market
50 MW+ of power installed in the past year
Substantial demand: nearly 100 MW applied for California “self generation” support
Repeat customers for power generation, forklifts, backup power
High-quality, visible customers
“Green” sells
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Major Share of Power Gen. Market
Fuel Cell Today 2011
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Repeat Customers
Coca-Cola
Forklifts at two warehouses , Plug Power
CHP at two production facilities ,UTC
Primary power in CA (Bloom Energy), uses redirected biogas
FCEVs in CA and Germany
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Repeat Customers
Walmart
Uses FC power at 17 retail sites
Forklifts deployed in three warehouses
• 71 FC forklifts at Balzac, Alberta warehouse operate in refrigerator and freezer areas
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Repeat Customers
Health Care: Kaiser -Permanente
Grocers: Price Chopper, Whole Foods, Albertsons
• Whole Foods (CT) and Albertsons (CA) remained open during recent widespread grid failures
Telecom – primary power: AT&T, Cox
Warehouses: Central Grocers, U.S. Foodservice,
Sysco (268 units, 315 more planned)
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Telecom
Using fuel cells for primary power/CHP and backup power
500+ backup power units deployed with federal help so far
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Biogas – a New “Growth” Market
ADG generated onsite
• Gills Onions, wineries, breweries (Sierra Nevada)
• Wastewater treatment plants (CA, NY)
Redirected biogas
• Bloom Energy servers at Coca-Cola, NTT America’s data center and Kaiser Permanente operate using redirected biogas
• Cox Enterprises: UTC FCs at two sites are powered by a blend of biogas and natural gas
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Fresh & Easy
• 5 Unit Install• 2 locations• Part of the DOE
Program
Hampstead Lafayette Hotel Village Lindo Paseo Dormitory (SDSU)
Irvine Unified School District Cambrian Center
• City of San Diego Historic Landmark
• 8 Unit Install• Tax advantages for
historical remodel
• $1M savings in construction costs
• 9 Unit Install• Solar/fuel cell hybrid
installation
• (2) High school facilities / pools
• 12 Unit Install• Model schools
program
• Low Income Senior Living (HUD)
• 4 Unit Install• System providing
power to public areas and heat to pool
NextEra Energy
• $23B Energy Service Provider
• Installed at wind farm• 1 unit install
Residential-Small Commercial
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Business Case
Lower cost than grid: LCOE as low as $0.09 per commercial kWh and $0.12 per residential kWh
Cleaner than grid: 37% less CO2 with negligible levels of NOx and Sox
Continuous base-load power: Clean, uninterrupted power 24x7
High efficiency: Up to 90% CHP energy efficiency and designed for 40% electrical efficiency
ClearEdge Power
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Financing Fuel Cell Installations
Federal incentives• Federal Industrial Tax Credit and Payment in Lieu of
FITC (1603 grant)
Market incentives• Net metering, renewable energy credits
State incentives• Calif. Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP)
• New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA)
Manufacturer (or third party) financing • UTC Power – Energy Service Agreement (ESA)
• Bloom Energy – Bloom Electrons
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Creative Financing
Tax and direct cash support from federal and state government and from the marketplace
• Financing often involves “monetizing” environmental or system benefits
Fuel cell manufacturers (FuelCell Energy, UTC Power, Bloom) and middle-men (Logan Energy) offering innovative financing arrangements
• Selling electrons, not units
• Tax credits can be packaged and re-sold
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Federal Policy
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New Visibility for Hydrogen
“…rapid development in fuel cells, we still need a clean source of hydrogen, but these are examples of things where technology can really give us much better choices to the internal combustion engine and oil.”
Sec. Chu, APEC, 13 Sept.
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Intense Congressional Debate
Politically divided Congress
2012 campaign begun
Budget woes
Serious divisions over energy policy /financing
Cut energy funding for disaster relief?
Dialogue, U.S. House, 1856
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DOE Fuel Cell Program
($ millions)2010
Approved2011
Approved2012
PossibleEERE $170 $98 $98
H2 Turbines $31 $31 $14.5 SOFC $50 $50 $25
TOTAL $255 $179 $137.5
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Federal Tax Support for Fuel Cells
Hydrogen Fueling Facility Credit
30% up to $30,000
Investment Tax Credit for Fuel Cells – to 2016
30% to $3,000 /kW
Grants in Lieu of Tax Credits – through 2011
Allows grants for businesses with insufficient tax liability
Fuel Cell Vehicles $4,000
Residential Energy Efficiency Credit
Up to $1,000, or $3,334 for multi-family
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Analysis
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Powertrains Report for H2Mobility
FCEVs are ready for commercialization
FCEVs “are the lowest carbon solution for medium/larger cars and longer trips” which produce 70% of CO2 emissions
BEV’s “are ideally suited to smaller vehicles and shorter trips”
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H2Mobility Report Converted to US Ownership & Use Patterns
Even if BEVs replace all small cars, all small vans, all small wagons, all small pickup trucks, all small SUVs and 50% of midsize sedans, BEVs will still account for less than:
40% of all vehicles on the road
30% of all vehicle miles traveled
Reduce GHGs from LDVs by only 10% compared to 2015 (less than 30% with a carbon-free electrical grid
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GHG Emissions and Petroleum Consumption by Vehicle Technology
GHG Emissions (g CO2-eq / mi) Petroleum Consumption (gal gas-eq / mi)
50% reductionfrom reference
vehicle GHG emissions:
215 g CO2eq /mi
Referencevehicle GHG emissions:
430 g CO2eq /mi
DOE Consensus View In 2030
Success case
-- Assumes
both battery
and fuel cell
technologies
achieve DOE
goals
NREL/Argonne analysis for DOE
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Autonomie Report
“Potential of Technologies for Displacing Gasoline Consumption by Light-Duty Vehicles through 2045”
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FCEVs Compete on Efficiency
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Vehicle Costs Converge
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“Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and Assessment of Future Opportunities” (Green II)
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Reductions Exceeding Projections
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U.S. State Activity
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Strong State-Level Interest
CA: $15 M for infrastructure
OH: $8 M for research
SC: Cost-shared research program
NY: Continuing NYSERDA program
CT: Substantial deployment support
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2011 Policy Activity
Ohio: Qualified Energy Project Tax Exemption.
California: CAEATFA (California Alternative Energy and Advanced Transportation Financing Authority)
Louisiana: renewable energy pilot program
Oklahoma: alternative fuel vehicle and infrastructure tax credits, & renewable energy goal
Maryland: fuel cells eligible for net metering
Florida: fuel cells target industry for development
Delaware: FCs renewable
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Hydrogen Infrastructure
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~50 Operating Fueling Stations 30 at forklift sites
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California Snapshot
About 20 stations installed or funded
About 20 more needed for first wave
33% renewable being achieved
Costs are coming down: CARB: $0.6 to $3 million+ (renewable are at the high end)
Profitability may need as few as 25,000 cars
300 kg/day station might be profitable
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Station Costs Are Declining
Cheaper compression / no compression at stations
Modular station designs
Lower delivery costs
Higher efficiency for distributed generation
Standardization
Some entrepreneurial interest
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CAFCP/Industry Sales Estimates
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ZEV Regulation
California Air Resources Board to vote in January
Staff Report out soon
Continued support for FCEV pathway
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“Likely Compliance Scenario”
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Other State-Level Programs
20-25 H2 fueling stations 5,000 – 25,000 cars
Hawaii: H2waii
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Other State-Level ProgramsNew York: NYH2
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Final Thoughts
Starting to see some market pull though price is still a critical issue
• Systems and fuel infrastructure
Policy leadership shifting to the States
Opinion is shifting subtly in government and among opinion leaders
• Key interest groups still need educating