US Foreign Policy in the Age of Obama

Renewal, Return, and Continuity

Michael BaunValdosta State University

Hope

Key determinants of a nation’s foreign policy:

• basic national interests• personality, beliefs, character of leadership• domestic politics (demands, constraints)• domestic institutions (constraints)• actual international situation (constraints,

opportunities, events)• power and capacities: “hard” – military and

economic; and “soft” – international alliances, institutions, legitimacy

US basic national interests:

• security

• prosperity

• democracy

Obama’s values = key principles of US foreign policy:

• inclusion (vs. division)• multilateralism (vs. unilateralism)• soft power (vs. hard power)• respect (interests of others)• pragmatism (vs. ideology)• professional competence (vs. ideology, personal

loyalty) • strategic thinking

Domestic politics

Mood of Americans:

• weary of war

• skeptical that US action to change things

• want to restore US global image

• priority on fixing domestic economy

Domestic institutional constraints

• separation of powers (Congress)

• electoral cycle – 2010 congressional; 2012 presidential elections

Actual international situation

• inherited problems (Bush legacy)

• unanticipated or anticipated events

Power and capacities

• “hard power” – military capacity

• “soft power” – international alliances,

institutions, and legitimacy

Iraq

• responsible withdrawal; all “combat” forces by August 2010 (35-50,000 troops remaining); all US forces must be out by end of 2011 (US-Iraqi agreement)

• comprehensive regional agreement?

Middle East

• renewed engagement

• negotiations on two-state solution

• more balanced US position (more pressure on Israel)

• consultations with all interested parties –

Hamas?

• regional approach – negotiations with Syria

Iran

• stop nuclear weapons program

• open to direct negotiations; cooperation on Afghanistan?

• bigger “carrots” (WTO membership, investment, normalized diplomatic relations) and “sticks” (tougher sanctions, military option)

• more cooperation with Russia and China

“Afpak”

• biggest foreign policy problem• the “right war” • more troops (17,000 in February) – more later? • bigger European contributions – economic and

civil support • missile and special ops strikes into Pakistan;

negotiate with moderate Taliban? • more limited goals• problem of destabilization of Pakistan

(“nightmare scenario”)• more economic and military aid to Pakistan

China

• most important US bilateral relationship for future

• deal with China’s rise – integrate into global system as “responsible stakeholder”

• broaden focus from financial/economic relations: climate change, energy, regional and global security, global governance

• downplay democracy and human rights

Russia

• hit “reset button” on US-Russia relations

• “grand bargain”?

missile defense, arms control (START), European security, respect for Russian interests in “near abroad” – i.e. NATO enlargement (although “no spheres of influence”)

…in return for Russian cooperation on Iran, Afghanistan, drug trade, etc.

Climate change

• renewed US engagement and leadership

• post-Kyoto agreement in Copenhagen, December 2009

• involve China and India

• domestic energy and environment plans include introduction of “cap and trade” system

Global economic crisis

• domestic stimulus and reform• global coordination to restore international

economic growth – coordinated stimulus?• new regulatory system for global finance?• strengthen and reform international financial

institutions (IMF, IBRD)• maintain global free trade system (although

more protection of labor and environment; tougher stance on completing Doha)

Common US-EU interests?

• Iraq• Middle East (Israel-Palestine)• Iran• Afghanistan-Pakistan (“Afpak”)• China• Russia• climate change• global financial and economic crisis

US-Europe: “essential” partners

Renewal

• of image, promise of America

• of American leadership (in deed and by example)

Return

to traditional principles of US foreign policy:• engagement• multilateralism• diplomacy• institution-building• prudence• reluctance to use force, but willingness to

do so

Continuity

• of basic national interests

• constraints imposed by inherited problems