U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program
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Transcript of U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program
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U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program
Glenn E. MoglenUniversity of MarylandNovember 12, 2002
Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Hydrologic Component
Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Hydrologic Component
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OutlineOutline Spatially Explicit Land Use Modeling Peak Flow Modeling
TR-20/TR-55 Continuous Streamflow Modeling Regression Approach?
Low Flow Modeling Continuous Streamflow Modeling Regression Approach
Items in “Flux” Water Quality Modeling Stream Gaging Can you spell “I-C-C”?
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Northwest Branch Watershed…Northwest Branch Watershed…
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Temporal Change in Aggregate Land Use Distribution…Temporal Change in Aggregate Land Use Distribution…
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Tracking Land Use Change In Time AND Space…Tracking Land Use Change In Time AND Space…
Reference: Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.
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Land Use Change AnimationLand Use Change Animation
Northwest Branch Watershed: 1938 - 2000.
Based on methods presented in Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002
If you would like to see this again…
http://www.ence.umd.edu/~moglen/WWproject.html
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Peak Flow ModelingPeak Flow Modeling TR-55: “Graphical Method” (see Moglen
and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.
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Peak Flow ModelingPeak Flow Modeling For larger watersheds where channel
processes or reservoirs add significant delays or attenuation of flood we use composite of TR-55 and TR-20 simulations:
)()()()(
)()()()(
)()(~
555555
202020
5520
ATRAAB
ATRBTR
ATRAAB
ATRBTR
TRTR
xQxxxx
xQxQ
xQxxxx
xQxQ
xQxQ
)(
)()()(
~
55
205520
ATR
ATRTRTR xQ
xQxQxQ
From Sources to first downstream point TR-20 point:
In between TR-20 simulated points:
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Continuous Streamflow Modeling: A “Simple” Model
Continuous Streamflow Modeling: A “Simple” Model Storages
Fluxes
Issues
Implications
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Sample Simulation – Northwest Branch: Historic/1994-2092Sample Simulation – Northwest Branch: Historic/1994-2092
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A Different Approach – Evolution of annual 7-day low flow eventA Different Approach – Evolution of annual 7-day low flow event Regression Approach – Low Flows in NWB
Year
Q7 (
m3/s
)
)()()(29.0 72.033.01.27
ITPQ
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Items In Flux: Water Quality ModelingItems In Flux: Water Quality Modeling
Not much progress to date…Focus of Years 3 & 4 of WWS project
Existing Models HSPF SWMM Conceptual/Simple Model
Need to model land use change Dynamically
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Items in Flux: Stream Gaging Activities…Items in Flux: Stream Gaging Activities…
Installed 5 gages of our own across all study watersheds, scales, & land uses.
Have access to data from 3 USGS stream gages at outlets of study watersheds.
Have access to data from 2 Montgomery County stream gages.
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Items in Flux: The Inter-County Connector and our Watersheds…Items in Flux: The Inter-County Connector and our Watersheds…
Northwest Branch
Paint Branch
ICC
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Summary / Future DirectionsSummary / Future Directions
Issues addressed or with clear approach: Land use change modeling Peak flow modeling Continuous streamflow modeling Low Flow Modeling
Issues in “Flux” Water Quality Modeling Stream Gaging ICC as a “wildcard”