US Economic Indicators: JOLTS · Job Openings 5 Hirings, Separations, & Payrolls 6 Quits & Consumer...

US Economic Indicators:JOLTS

Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 10, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

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Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

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Mali Quintana480-664-1333

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Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

November 10, 2020 / JOLTS www.yardeni.com


Hirings & Separations 3Layoffs & Quits 4Job Openings 5Hirings, Separations, & Payrolls 6Quits & Consumer Confidence Index 712-Month Changes 8-10Hires, Quits, & Layoffs Rates 11-13Consumer Optimism & Quit Rate 14Job Openings & Wage Inflation 15Job Openings 16-21

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

5

10

15

0

5

10

15

Sep

Sep

NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS(millions, sa)

Total Separations (4.7)Total Hires (5.9)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 1.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202240

50

60

70

80

90

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sep

NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS(12-month sum, millions)

Total Separations (76.4)Total Hires (70.4)


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Figure 2.

Hirings & Separations

/ November 10, 2020 / JOLTS www.yardeni.com


2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Sep

Sep

LAYOFFS & QUITS(millions, sa)

Layoffs (1.3)Quits (3.0)


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Figure 3.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202218

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

SepSep

LAYOFFS vs. QUITS(12-month sum, millions)

Layoffs (36.7)Quits (35.6)


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Figure 4.

Layoffs & Quits



Figure 5.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Sep

TOTAL JOB OPENINGS (millions, sa)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Sep

TOTAL UNEMPLOYED AS RATIO OF JOB OPENINGS

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Sep

TOTAL JOB OPENINGS AS PERCENT OF PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT


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Job Openings



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000NEW HIRES MINUS SEPARATIONS & NONFARM PAYROLLS(monthly change, thousands, sa)

Total Hirings Minus Separations (Sep=1207.0)

Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct=638.0)


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Figure 6.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-30

-20

-10

0

10

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Sep

Oct

NEW HIRES MINUS SEPARATIONS & NONFARM PAYROLLS(millions, sa)

Total Hires Minus Separations(12-month sum)(-6.0)Nonfarm Payrolls(12-month change) (-9.2)


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Figure 7.

Hirings, Separations, & Payrolls



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Sep

QUITS vs. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

Consumer ConfidenceIndex(1985=100)

Quits(millions, sa)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board.

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Figure 8.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

5000

10000

15000

0

5000

10000

15000

Layoffs

Quits

Hires Aug

Openings

HIRES & SEPARATIONS(thousands, sa)

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Note: Extreme values for March not shown.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 9.

Quits & Consumer Confidence Index



2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

Sep

NEW HIRES(12-month change, thousands)

New Hires (-88.0)


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Figure 10.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Sep

TOTAL SEPARATIONS (12-month change, thousands)

Separations (-1075.0)

Note: Extreme values for March not shown.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 11.

12-Month Changes



2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

Sep

LAYOFFS & DISCHARGES (12-month change, thousands)

Layoffs & Discharges (-629.0)


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Figure 12.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2000

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

-2000

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Sep

QUITS (12-month change, thousands)

Quits (-411.0)


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Figure 13.

12-Month Changes



2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Sep

TOTAL JOB OPENINGS (12-month change, thousands)

Job Openings (-610.0)


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Figure 14.

12-Month Changes



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

Sep

JOB OPENINGS, QUITS, HIRES, & LAYOFFS RATES: TOTAL PRIVATE (percent, sa)

Job Openings (4.6)Quits (2.4)Hires (4.6)Layoffs (1.0)


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Figure 15.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Sep

JOB OPENINGS RATE BY PRIVATE INDUSTRY(percent, sa) Total Private (4.6)

Construction (3.1)Manufacturing (3.6)Trade, Transporation, & Utilities (4.0)Professional & Business Services (6.0)Education & Health Services (5.0)Leisure & Hospitality (5.7)


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Figure 16.

Hires, Quits, & Layoffs Rates



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Sep

QUITS RATES BY INDUSTRY(percent, sa) Total Private (2.4)



yardeni.com

Figure 17.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

Sep

HIRES RATES BY INDUSTRY(percent, sa)

Total Private (4.6)Construction (5.3)Manufacturing (2.9)Trade, Transporation, & Utilities (4.7)Professional & Business Services (5.7)Education & Health Services (3.2)Leisure & Hospitality (8.1)


yardeni.com

Figure 18.




2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Sep

LAYOFFS RATES BY INDUSTRY(percent, nsa) Total Private (1.0)



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Figure 19.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

Q3

Q3

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX & JOB OPENINGS RATE

Job Openings Rate(percent) (4.6)

ECI: Wages, Salaries,& Benefits ofCivilian Workers(yearly percent change) (2.4)


yardeni.com

Figure 20.




Figure 21.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

40

60

80

100

120

140

Sep

CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX & QUITS RATE

Consumer OptimismIndex*(1985=100) (91.4)

Quits Rate(percent, sa) (2.4)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Oct

Consumer SentimentIndex(Q1 1966=100) (81.8)


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

0

50

100

150

Oct

Sep

Consumer ConfidenceIndex(1985=100) (100.9)


*Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board, and the University of Michigan.

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Consumer Optimism & Quit Rate



Figure 22.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.2

5.6

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Oct

JOB OPENINGS & WAGE INFLATIONNFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (32.7)

JOLTS: Job Openings Rate(percent) (4.6)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

OctOct

NFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (32.7)

Average Hourly Earnings:Production & Nonsupervisory Workers(yearly percent change) (4.5)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Oct

Q3

ECI: Wages, Salaries,& Benefits in Private Industry(yearly percent change) (2.4)

NFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (32.7)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business.

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Job Openings & Wage Inflation



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221

2

3

4

5

6

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sep

JOB OPENINGS, QUITS, & HIRES RATES: TOTAL(percent, sa)

Job Openings (4.3)Quits (2.1)Hires (4.1)


yardeni.com

Figure 23.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Sep

TOTAL JOB OPENINGS.(yearly change, millions, sa)


yardeni.com

Figure 24.

Job Openings



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sep

TOTAL U6* UNEMPLOYED AS RATIO OF JOB OPENINGS

* Unemployed + part-time for economic reasons + marginally attached.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.2

SepOct

JOB OPENINGS: JOLTS & NFIBNFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(percent, 12-month average) (32.7)

JOLTS: Job Openings Rate(percent, 12-month average) (4.4)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Independent Business.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

Job Openings



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Sep

Oct

JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYED WORKERS(millions)

Unemployed WorkersJob Openings


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Figure 27.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Sep

TOTAL JOB OPENINGS MINUS TOTAL UNEMPLOYED(millions, sa)

Latest (-6.14)


yardeni.com

Figure 28.

Job Openings



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

500

1000

1500

0

500

1000

1500

Sep

JOB OPENINGS(thousands, sa)

Health Care & Social Assistance (1112.0)Professional & Business Services (1276.0)Leisure & Hospitality (781.0)


yardeni.com

Figure 29.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210

100

200

300

400

500

0

100

200

300

400

500

Sep

JOB OPENINGS(thousands, sa) Construction (229.0)

Durable GoodsManufacturing (255.0)Financial Activities (316.0)State & Local Governmentex Education (388.0)Transportation, Warehousing,& Utilities (279.0)


yardeni.com

Figure 30.

Job Openings



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200

400

600

800

1000

1200

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Sep


Retail Trade (653.0)


yardeni.com

Figure 31.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

100

200

300

400

500

0

100

200

300

400

500

Sep


Construction (229.0)


yardeni.com

Figure 32.

Job Openings



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

100

200

300

400

0

100

200

300

400JOB OPENINGS(thousands, sa)

Durable GoodsManufacturing (255.0)Transportation, Warehousing,& Utilities (279.0)


yardeni.com

Figure 33.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct

Sep

QUITS vs. JOBS PLENTIFUL

Jobs Plentiful(percent saying so)

Quits(millions, sa)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.

Job Openings



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US Economic Indicators: JOLTS · Job Openings 5 Hirings, Separations, & Payrolls 6 Quits & Consumer...

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