U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Sue HaseltineAssociate Director for BiologyU.S. Geological Survey

David SchadChair, Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Subcommittee on Climate Change and Director of Fish and Wildlife at the MN Department of Natural Resources Lynn ScarlettDeputy SecretaryU.S. Department of the Interior

Climate Change Science: Helping Energy, Water, and Wildlife Managers Respond

Climate Change:Climate Change:Impacts on Natural SystemsImpacts on Natural Systems

Dr. Sue Haseltine Dr. Sue Haseltine Associate Director for BiologyAssociate Director for BiologyU.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Geological Survey

November 30, 2007

• Global average temperature increased 0.74°C in the past 100 years and is expected to increase another 0.4°C in the next 20 years

• Higher the latitude, greater the warming

• Average precipitation increased globally and across most of the U.S.

© IPCC, 2007

Atmospheric ChangeAtmospheric Change

• Intensity of rainfall events increased over most land areas -- but so did the number of dry days

• Increased occurrence and intensity of droughts

Drought Index Trend

• Ocean temperature increased from surface down to at least 3000 m• Increase in N. Atlantic hurricane activity

Geographic Variability in the Rate of

Sea Level Rise (1950 to 2000)

© IPCC, 2007

Observed ocean change:Observed ocean change:

(acceleration or natural variability?)

• Global sea level rise - 1.7 mm/yr during 20th century - 3.1 mm/yr during 1993-2003

Observed change in ice and snow:Observed change in ice and snow:

• Arctic summer sea ice has shrunk 7.4% per decade since 1978

• Less snow at low altitudes and earlier spring runoff

• Mountain glaciers declined globally©

IPC

C, 2

00

7

Glacier Mass

March-April Snow Cover in the Northern Hemisphere© IPCC, 2007

Highly Vulnerable Natural Systems Highly Vulnerable Natural Systems

• Arid Ecosystems• High Latitude, High Altitude Ecosystems • Cryosphere• Glacial fed regions• Wetlands and Freshwater Ecosystems• Low-lying coastal areas• Megadeltas• Coral reefs

Examples of Ecological ConsequencesExamples of Ecological Consequences1. Higher winter temperatures and drought lead to pest

outbreaks and forest die-off in western N. America

In summer 2002, pinyon (Pinus edulis) began dying en masse from drought stress and an associated bark beetle outbreak

(Jemez Mts. near Los Alamos)

(2004)

2. Lower soil moisture leads to more intense, frequent, and widespread wildfires

Examples of Ecological Consequences

Wildfire trend in western USA since 1970 correlates with observed higher temperatures and reduced moisture availability.

Source: Westerling, Hidalgo, Cayan and Swetnam, Science (2006)

Wildfires lead to erosion, flash flooding, and habitat loss.

Rill erosion on a burned hill slope after the Buffalo Creek Fire (Photo by John A. Moody)

Examples of Ecological Consequences3. As sea level rise accelerates -- shoreline erosion, wetland

submergence, and salinity increase along low-lying coasts

Accelerated land loss along AK coast

Examples of Ecological Consequences

4. As sea ice disappears

Change in Change in optimal polar optimal polar bear habitatbear habitat

2041-20502041-2050 minus minus

2001-20102001-2010

Change in Change in optimal polar optimal polar bear habitatbear habitat

2041-20502041-2050 minus minus

2001-20102001-2010

Examples of Ecological Consequences5. Changes in species

phenology and distribution

As geographic ranges of plants and animals migrate poleward, some species will be decoupled from habitats or prey.

Current Projected under doubling of CO2

WARBLER DISTRIBUTIONWARBLER DISTRIBUTION

(Bu

rkett et al., 2005)

Globally ~20% to ~30% of species will be at increasingly high risk of extinction by 2100 if global mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2 to 3°C above pre-industrial levels (medium confidence).

“Current conservation practices are generally poorly prepared to adapt to this level of change, and effective adaptation responses are likely to be costly to implement (high confidence)”

IPCC (2007) concludes:

Bull Trout (FWS photo) American Pika

While precise outcomes on habitats and individual species are difficult to project, present knowledge indicates that many species will very likely be displaced or extirpated.

1. Reduce non-climate stressors on habitats

Examples of potential adaptationExamples of potential adaptation

2. Adjust harvests of fish and wildlife

Examples of potential adaptationExamples of potential adaptation

FWS Photo

3. Establish corridors for migration

Cropped wetlands in the lower MS Valley

Examples of potential adaptationExamples of potential adaptation

FWS Photo

4. Change management prescriptions for habitats, allow flexibility that is needed to conserve species ecosystem function

Example: prescribed fire to reduce fuel load, promote desired vegetation, or control invasive plants

5. Use adaptive management with strong monitoring strategies

USGS works with partners to provide research,

modeling, and monitoring to develop strategies for

adaptation on the landscape.