U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region

Cindy KolarScience Advisor, Fisheries Program

USGS – Reston, VA

Drivers of Ecosystem Change

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis.Island Press, Washington, DC.

What are Invasive Species?

Executive Order 13112 (1999):

• "Invasive species" means an alien species whose introduction does or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm or harm to human health.

• "Alien species" means, with respect to a particular ecosystem, any species, including its seeds, eggs, spores, or other biological material capable of propagating that species, that is not native to that ecosystem.

• Decimated native fishes

• High annual cost of control: currently $22 million/year

Photo: USFWS

Photo: USFWS

Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus)

Figure: USGS

Zebra & Quagga Mussels (Dreissena sp.)

• Dramatic impacts on ecosystem

• Clog water intakes at a cost of $3billion/yr (Pimentel et al. 1999)

Photo: USGS

http://nas.er.usgs.gov

Purple loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria)

http://nas.er.usgs.gov

Photo: Byrd, Mississippi State University, Bugwood.org

Photo: USGS

• Decrease biodiversity of invertebrates

• Decreased native plant biomass

Establishment

Negative Effects

PREVENT

ERADICATE

CONTROL

Transportation

Introduction

Within native range

Process of Species Spread

Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

Kling, G.W., K. Hayhoe, L.B. Johnson, J.J. Magnuson, S. Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J. Shuter, M.M. Wander, D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Zak, R.L. Lindroth, S.C. Moser, and M.L. Wilson (2003). Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America, Washington, D.C.

http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/handle/123456789/23494

Climate Change: Temperature Increases

In the Great Lakes, seeing fewer days below freezing

Water is warming twice as fast as air

Kling et al. (2003)

Temperature Increases and Trade

Commercial shipping historically an important vector for introducing invasive species in the Great Lakes

Decreased ice cover will open additional shipping routes

Allow for faster and potentially more sea voyages

Could improve survivorship of organisms associated with ships

http://www.economist.com/node/21530079

Other Expected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes

Changes in water and air temperature, water depth, velocity, and timing

Changes in hydrologic and fire regimes (increase in precipitation and storms)

Longer growing season – longer period of stratification

Shorter winter

Result of Changing Climate

All act to alter habitat suitability for plants and animals, native and nonnative

Shifts in community composition Range changes of native and nonnative

species Some nonnative species may become invasive ‘Winners’ and ‘losers’ will emerge

Invasive Species and Climate Change

Establishment of additional species Established nonnative species may become

invasive Impact of existing invasive species may

change Distribution of existing invasive species

Predicting Range Shifts

Rodda et al. (2009)

Burmese Pythons

Case Study: Common Reed (Phragmites australis)

• Tall, invasive wetland plant that forms dense stands

• Impairs wetland functions• Reduces biodiversity and

property values• Limits human uses of

beaches and recreational areas

• Extremely difficult and costly to eradicate once established

Case Study: Common Reed (Phragmites australis)

• USGS Great Lakes Science Center (Mazur and Kowalski) in collaboration with Michigan Tech Research Institute - Great Lakes Restoration Initiative project

• Used current extent of Phragmites and vulnerability risk assessment to create a decision support tool to aid managers prioritize control efforts

Case Study: Common Reed (Phragmites australis)

• Sampled 800 wetlands and used satellite imagery to map current distribution of Phragmites

• Used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and knowledge of hydrologic alteration, shoreline

• development, and excessive nitrogen to develop a Habitat Suitability Index

Phragmites Spread Potential

• Low lake levels recently have provided opportunities Phragmites to colonize newly exposed areas

• Scientists simulated effects of additional lake level declines and the Habitat Suitability Model to predict potential spread

Phragmites Decision Support Tool

• Vulnerability assessment and distribution map available online

• Tool allows land managers, home owners, and other users to access and visualize mapping data at a variety of scales

http://www.mtri.org/phragmites.html

Tipping the Scale?

• Could climate change improve marginal conditions for species yet to invade?

• Case Study: Asian carp

• Bighead and silver carps• Large-bodied planktivores• Introduced in the 1970s• Escaped into waterways

Bighead carp

Silver carp

Extent of Distribution

Reproducing in about 20 states Nonindigenous Species Database (http://nas.er.usgs.gov)

Bighead carpSilver carp

Preventing Entry into the Great Lakes

Proximity to Lakes Michigan and Erie

Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee

Factors Potentially Limiting Success

Suitable temperature Availability of suitable spawning and

nursery habitat Sufficient available food resources

Bighead Silver

Maps based only on air temperature and other factors determine where fish can live

Need 2685 degree days over 15C to mature Might not be currently met in some Lake Superior

drainages Affects food availability and potentially habitat

Suitable Temperature?Mandrak and Cudmore 2004

Spawning and Nursery Habitat?

Need flowing water to spawn (perhaps around 100 km)

River length needed related to temperature

May be additional pressure to remove barriers to flow

Kolar et al. 2007

Food Resources?

Cooke and Hill (2010) Bioenergetics modeling Considered only planktonic food resources Predicted that Asian carp should do well in

parts of Lake Erie and other productive areas

But not in open water of Great Lakes Increase in temperature would increase

productivity and food availability

Asian Carp and Ecosystem ServicesProvisioning Services

• Water quality• Transportation• Navigation• Restructuring of fish

communities• Recreational angling• Commercial fishing

Regulatory Services• Maintenance of

water quality• Flood flow buffering

Cultural Services• Recreation• Tourism• Existence values

Supporting Services• Nutrient cycling and primary production• Ecosystem resilience• Habitat for native species

Asian Carp and Ecosystem Services

Three factors potentially affecting establishment and ecological effects of Asian carp in the Great Lakes would be exasperated by increases in temperature

Other Factors Affecting Habitat

Water depth, velocity, timing Hydrologic and fire regimes Physical, chemical, and biological

components of habitat Invasive sp. advantage: habitat generalists

Response of Plants and Animals

Where species are located: range shifts Timing of biological events: phenology Biotic interactions: predation, competition

Nonnative Diseases & Pathogens: Ichthyophonus

Protozoan parasite Yukon chinook salmon

June10

11

12

13

14

15

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17

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19

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21

1991-1996

25 year Yukon temperature means

July August September

Month

1981-1990

1975-1980

June10

11

12

13

14

15

16

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19

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21

1991-1996

25 year Yukon temperature means

July August September

Month

1981-1990

1975-1980

Jim Winton, Western Fisheries Research Center

Prevalence of Ichthyophonus in the Yukon River System

Considerations

• Preventing & controlling invasive species is high priority & resource-intensive

• Invasive species issues are complicated by climate change, other global changes, & associated uncertainties

• Understanding and minimizing these uncertainties will become more important with additional environmental stressors

Considerations

• Baseline information on species distribution is critical to future success

• Modeling predict future scenarios is important to resource managers

• USGS will continue to maintain & improve databases & provide research to help managers make more informed decisions