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US China Clean Cooperation - Brookings Institution• 7/20/10 – IEA pronounces China world’s...
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US‐China Clean Energy CooperationCross‐Cutting Issues
Joanna Lewis, Ph.D.
Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service
Georgetown University
Presented at the Brookings Institution
September 17, 2010
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• 7/20/10– IEA pronounces China world’s largest energy consumer– China rejects claims; calls IEA data unreliable
• 7/22/10 – U.S. Senate pronounces climate bill dead– China announces plan to begin domestic carbon trading
• 8/15/10– China passes Japan to become second largest economy
• 9/4/10– U.S. unemployment worse than similar industrial nations
• 9/8/10– China named most attractive place to invest in renewable energy
by Ernst & Young• 9/9/10
– United Steelworkers file Section 301 Petition against China’s Green Technology Practices
Recent HeadlinesRecent Headlines
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1. Implementation– Following through on our agreements
2. Competition– Market access and trade
3. Climate– Climate <–> energy
– Domestic <–> international
– Bilateral <–> multilateral
Focus on Three Cross‐Cutting IssuesFocus on Three Cross‐Cutting Issues
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• U.S.‐China Strategic and Economic Dialogue• Memorandum of Understanding to Enhance Cooperation on Climate
Change, Energy and the Environment • Climate Change Policy Dialogue• Memorandum of Cooperation to Build Capacity to Address Climate
Change • U.S.‐China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade • U.S.‐China Clean Energy Research Centers • U.S.‐China Electric Vehicles Initiative • U.S.‐China Energy Efficiency Action Plan • U.S.‐China Renewable Energy Partnership • 21st Century Coal Cooperation• Shale Gas Resource Initiative • U.S.‐China Energy Cooperation Program (ECP)• U.S.‐China Energy Efficiency Forum • U.S.‐China Renewable Energy Forum • U.S.‐China Advanced Biofuels Forum
ImplementationImplementation
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• U.S.‐China Strategic and Economic Dialogue• Memorandum of Understanding to Enhance Cooperation on Climate
Change, Energy and the Environment • Climate Change Policy Dialogue• Memorandum of Cooperation to Build Capacity to Address Climate
Change • U.S.‐China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade • U.S.‐China Clean Energy Research Centers • U.S.‐China Electric Vehicles Initiative • U.S.‐China Energy Efficiency Action Plan • U.S.‐China Renewable Energy Partnership • 21st Century Coal Cooperation• Shale Gas Resource Initiative • U.S.‐China Energy Cooperation Program (ECP)• U.S.‐China Energy Efficiency Forum • U.S.‐China Renewable Energy Forum • U.S.‐China Advanced Biofuels Forum
ImplementationImplementation
2 out of 3 announced for U.S. side, $25 mill of USG funds for U.S. side. Chinese consortium unknown; mandate: R&D? &D? &D?
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• International trade – Chinese imports to the US
• US market access in China– Preference for Chinese
manufacturers
– Unfair subsidies
CompetitionCompetition
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• International trade– Competing with US/EU
manufacturers in other markets
• Market access in the US– Preference for US
manufacturers
– Concerns about technology performance
• International trade – Chinese imports to the US
• US market access in China– Preference for Chinese
manufacturers
– Unfair subsidies
CompetitionCompetition
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Solar PV: Production and UtilizationSolar PV: Production and Utilization
Sources: EIA, 2009; ERI, NDRC China.
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Top 5 Countries for Wind Power CapacityTop 5 Countries for Wind Power Capacity
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Top 5 Countries for Wind Power CapacityTop 5 Countries for Wind Power Capacity
2009 Wind Capacity Additions
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China’s Role in Global Wind Power AdditionsChina’s Role in Global Wind Power Additions
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Wind Turbine Sales by Manufacturer in ChinaWind Turbine Sales by Manufacturer in China
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CHINESE
FOREIGN
Companies in the Chinese Wind MarketCompanies in the Chinese Wind Market
Lewis, 2011 (forthcoming). Do not reproduce without permission.
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Lewis, 2011 (forthcoming). Do not reproduce without permission.
Companies in the Chinese Wind MarketCompanies in the Chinese Wind Market
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GermanySpain
USAChina
India
UK
Wind Technology Leaders and FollowersWind Technology Leaders and Followers
Source: BTM, 2010
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• We are competing with China to become a renewable energy technology leader– They lead in production, but not in R&D or deployment
• If US companies cooperate with Chinese companies they will steal our technology and intellectual property– Are many US companies already benefiting from cooperation with Chinese partners
• They cannot learn anything from us– Serious challenges even in wind deployment in China
• Very low capacity factors as a result of poor siting practices, O&M and lack of technology testing and certification facilities
• We have nothing to learn from them– China is the only country pursing GW‐scale wind farm development
– Similar transmission and integration issues as the US means they provide a valuable laboratory for learning
Perceived Challenges to Cooperation
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• Climate policy related to clean energy but often separated in US‐China policy discussions
• China is increasingly combining the two domestically– Energy intensity target has led to a carbon intensity target
• Builds upon the systems in place • Will require a new system of GHG accounting• Additional climate policies to reduce emissions
– Still major concerns over data quality; energy intensity target will likely not be achieved
ClimateClimate
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• US‐China tensions often high, as in Copenhagen
• China sides with the G77 – lowest common denominator often sets the position– Most recent alliance with the BASIC countries; many are taking serious actions
• Next 2 rounds of negotiations not in Copenhagen or Bonn ‐‐ in Tianjin, China and Cancun, Mexico– Could alter dynamic
– First ever UNFCCC negotiation hosted by China
International Climate NegotiationsInternational Climate Negotiations
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• We face similar challenges– maintaining energy security – combating climate change– ensuring economic growth and prosperityThis can create opportunities for cooperation, or grounds for competition
• We are entering a challenging time in US‐China relations
Climate and energy cooperation may be one key area where we can advance – or further strain – the relationship
• China and the United States are positioned to lead the global transformation to a sustainable, low carbon global economy
We play a key role in advancing technological understanding, reducing costs, and bringing immediate benefits to the global community 19
Climate, Energy and US‐China Relations
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Joanna Lewis, Ph.D.Assistant Professor | Science, Technology and International AffairsEdmund A. Walsh School of Foreign ServiceGeorgetown University | ICC 305‐Q 37th & O Streets NW, Washington, DC 20057Tel. +1.202.687.7284 | Fax. +1.202.687.1431| Email: [email protected] Web: http://explore.georgetown.edu/people/jil9/
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