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![Page 1: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support
PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
![Page 2: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outlines
• Research Goal
• Study Area and Problem Context
• Modelling Urban Growth
• Visualizing Model Output
• Future Works
![Page 3: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Research Goal
![Page 4: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Research Goal and Method
• Developing a urban growth simulation model and disseminating it by geospatial Web technologies to support planning policy making
• Explorative and descriptive
• Literature review, modelling, and experimental case study
![Page 5: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Study Area and Problem Context
![Page 6: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Study Area
Seoul
Seoul MetropolitanArea
Hwaseoung: Study area
South Korea
![Page 7: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Study Area Characteristics
• Undeveloped rural area in Seoul Metropolitan Area until 2000
• Industrial and residential development began to occur afterward
• One of the fastest urbanizing area in Korea
• One of the most concerned area for sprawl
![Page 8: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Land Cover 1985
Legend
Study area
Barren
Argriculture
Forest
Water
Wet land
Built up
Grass land
![Page 9: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Land Cover 1990
Legend
Study area
Barren
Argriculture
Forest
Water
Wet land
Built up
Grass land
![Page 10: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Land Cover 1995
Legend
Study area
Barren
Argriculture
Forest
Water
Wet land
Built up
Grass land
![Page 11: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Land Cover 2000
Legend
Study area
Barren
Argriculture
Forest
Water
Wet land
Built up
Grass land
![Page 12: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Land Cover 2003
Legend
Study area
Barren
Argriculture
Forest
Water
Wet land
Built up
Grass land
![Page 13: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Land Cover 2006
Legend
Study area
Barren
Argriculture
Forest
Water
Wet land
Built up
Grass land
Conurbanisationdown to south
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Suitability Analysis
• Developable lands in SMA– Excluding physically and
legally undevelopable land, significant amount of developable land are located in Hwaseoung
• What is happening and what can happen in future ?
Greenbelt
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Leapfrog Development
• Individual manufacturing firms• Small scale or individual housing development
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Population Trend
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Urbanized Area
Total Area: 727 km2; Urbanized Area: 255 km2 (35.14%), As of 2008
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Major Planning Problem/Agenda
• Sprawl of small scale(but lots of) industrial and residential developments
• Rapid loss of forest and agricultural land
• Development oriented policy without long term vision and citizen consensus
• Need for “centres” or “compact cores” for sustainable development
![Page 19: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Modelling Urban Growth
![Page 20: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Why Agent Based Modelling(ABM) ?
• Dynamic• Driving force of urban growth : Spatial behaviour
of individual agents• Bottom up approach can be joined with top down
intervention• Possible “hot spots” during growth simulation
(Emergence, Knowledge discovery)
![Page 21: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Overall Model Building Process
Understanding ProblemContext
Data Analysis(Explanatory/Descriptive)
Simulation
Time matching, Parameter setting
Output Analysis
Calibration, Verification, Validation
Implementation
Toolkit: NetLogo, Repast
Conceptual model
EnvironmentDecision
ruleAgent
Policy Evaluation
Feedback
I am here now!
![Page 22: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Model Outline (1)
• Simulating urban growth– Non-urban to residential use– Non-urban to service use– Non-urban to industrial use
• To support planning policy by simulating future urban growth under different policy scenarios
![Page 23: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Model Outline (2)
• Hybrid approach (Combination of ABM and CA : Cells state affected by not only neighbourhood characteristics but also agent behaviour)
• Cell: 30m * 30m grid
• Agent: Household, manufacturing industry, retail
![Page 24: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Model Outline (3)
Agent Location Decision
Logistic Regression
PhysicalVariable
(elevation, slope)
PhysicalVariable
(elevation, slope)
InstitutionalVariable
(regulation)
InstitutionalVariable
(regulation)
SocialVariable
(ownership, accessibility,
price)
SocialVariable
(ownership, accessibility,
price)
Development Probability Surface
![Page 25: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Development Toolkit (1)
Functionality
Programming difficulty
NetLogo
Mason
Repast J/Phyton/.Net
Swarm
![Page 26: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Development Toolkit (2)
• NetLogo • Repast
![Page 27: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Visualizing Model Output and Reasoning Together
![Page 28: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Disseminating Model Outcomes
• Knowledge, especially one about future, is of importance in making planning policy
• However, contemporary planning not only relies on knowledge but also requires a broader consensus among stakeholders
• Thus, sharing model outcome is a necessary step to support planning decision making and action
![Page 29: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Java Applet
• Simple development
• User interactions on model parameter
• Inflexibility of data overlay
![Page 30: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
WebGIS Server
• Web 2.0, mesh up
• Spatial analysis on Web
• Requires heavy duty hardware
![Page 31: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Google Earth
• Ease of use, wide availability
• Mesh up (Spatially explicit communication)
• OGC standard
• Dynamic KML
![Page 32: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Dynamic KML
http://puff.images.alaska.edu/dynamic_kml.shtml
• Display a series of KML data in time sequence
• Applicable to cell changes and agent movement
![Page 33: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Future Works
![Page 34: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Next Step
• Conceptual model building– Agents behavior– Environment – Decision rules
• Bridging model and planning policy– Storytelling ?
![Page 35: Urban Growth Simulation and Geospatial Web for Planning Support PhD Researcher, Dong Han Kim Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042522/56649e2d5503460f94b1cd2a/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Thank you !