Urban Earthquake Loss Assessment by ELER - unina.it · PDF fileUrban Earthquake Loss...

Urban Habitat Constructions under Catastrophic Events

16-18 September 2010, Naples,Italy

Urban Earthquake Loss Assessment by ELER

U. Hancilar, C. Tuzun, C. Yenidogan, M. Erdik

Department of Earthquake Engineering, Kandilli Observatory & Earthquake

Research Institute (KOERI), Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey

Outline

Introduction

Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER)

Spectral Capacity Based Vulnerability

Assessment

Casualty Asessment

Conclusions

Modern technology permits measurements of strong ground shaking in near real-time for urban areas exposed to earthquake risk.

The assessments of the distribution of strong ground motion, building damage and casualties can be made within few minutes after an earthquake.

The ground motion measurement and data processing systems designed to provide this information are called Earthquake Rapid Response Systems.

Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies can be reduced by timely and

correct action after a disastrous earthquake.

Introduction

Earthquake Rapid Response Systems

Introduction (cont.) Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging

earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response

and public information.

Earthquake shaking and loss information is ultimately

intended for dissemination in a timely manner to related

agencies for the planning and coordination of the post-

earthquake emergency response.

A methodology and software package, Earthquake Loss

Estimation Routine-ELER, for rapid estimation of

earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-

Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint

Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled

“Network of Research Infrastructures for European

Seismology-NERIES (www.neries-eu.org)”.

Introduction (cont.)

Earthquake losses might be assessed in regional and/or in

urban scale.

Regional estimates of damage to built-environment and

assessment of human losses can be achieved using

region-specific theoretical/empirical vulnerability

relationships in connection with regional inventories of

physical and social elements exposed to risk.

In urban scale, more detailed inventories of elements at

risk are required in order to use with analytical

vulnerability relationships for the estimation of earthquake

losses.

ELER Software

ELER software incorporates both regional

and urban-scale almost real-time estimation

of losses after a major earthquake in the

Euro-Mediterranean region.

The software package coded in MATLAB

environment comprises of a Hazard Module

and three loss estimation modules: Level 0,

Level 1 and Level 2.

Overview of

ELER

Software

Components

HAZARD Module(at reference soil)

Physical Losses and Casualties

ELER

Mapping and Reporting

External Hazard

Data

Site Response

Module

Earthquake Source Parameters

Tectonic Entities

Vs30 Distribution

SHAKEMAP

External Site Response

DataUSGS ShakeMap

Module

Online Accelerometric

Data

Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement

Based)

User Supplied Vulnerability Modules

Default Physical and Social Inventory Data

User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data

HAZARD Module(at reference soil)HAZARD Module(at reference soil)



ELERELER



External Hazard

Data

External Hazard

Data

Site Response

Module

Site Response

Module


Tectonic Entities


Tectonic Entities

Vs30 DistributionVs30 Distribution

SHAKEMAP SHAKEMAP


Data


DataUSGS ShakeMap

ModuleUSGS ShakeMap

Module


Data


Data


Based)


Based)



Default Physical and Social Inventory DataDefault Physical and Social Inventory Data

User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory DataUser Supplied Physical

and Social Inventory Data

Hazard Parameters

Hazard Calculation

Vulnerability

Calculation

Physical Loss

Calculation

Representation of

Results

ELER Software Analysis Levels

Level 2 module of the ELER software (similar to

HAZUS, 1999 and HAZUS-MH, 2003) essentially aims

at assessing the earthquake risk (building damage,

consequential human casualties and macro economic

loss quantifiers) in urban areas.

Spectral capacity based vulnerability assessment

methodology is utilized for building damage

estimations.

ELER Software – Level 2

Capacity Spectrum Method - ATC 40

MADRS - FEMA 440

(bilinear hysteretic, stiffness degrading, strength

degrading and approximate equations)

Reduction Factor Method - Fajfar 2000

Coefficient Method - ASCE 41-06

METHODS of BUILDING DAMAGE ESTIMATION

Spectral Displacement-Based Vulnerability and Damage

Assessment Methodology

ELER Software – Level 2

Level 2 - Spectral Displacement-Based Vulnerability and

Damage Assessment Methodology

D e m a n d & c a p a c ity s p e c tra fo r d if fe re n t

d u ra t io n s o f s h a k in g

0 .0

0 .2

0 .4

0 .6

0 .8

1 .0

0 .0 0 .1 0 .2

S p e c t ra l d is p la c e m e n t (m )

Sp

ec

tr

al a

cc

eln

(

g)

C a p a c ity C u rv e

D e m a n d C u rv e

P e rc e n ta g e o f d a m a g e d b u ild in g s in d a m a g e s ta te s

0 %

5 %

1 0 %

1 5 %

2 0 %

2 5 %

3 0 %

N o

D a m a g e

S lig h t M o d e ra te E x te n s iv e C o m p le te

E x a m p le F ra g il i ty C u rv e s

0 %

1 0 %

2 0 %

3 0 %

4 0 %

5 0 %

6 0 %

7 0 %

8 0 %

9 0 %

1 0 0 %

0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .1 0 0 .1 5 0 .2 0

S p e c t ra l R e s p o n s e (m )

Pe

rc

en

ta

ge

o

f b

uild

in

gs

ex

ce

ed

in

g d

am

ag

e s

ta

te


P e r f o rm a n c e P o in t

Performance point and damage probability calculation

Distribution of Buildings at

Discrete Damage Levels

Sp

ectr

al A

cce

lera

tio

nS

pe

ctr

al A

cce

lera

tio

n

Perc

enta

ge o

f exceedin

g

dam

age

D e m a n d & c a p a c ity s p e c tra fo r d if fe re n t

d u ra t io n s o f s h a k in g

0 .0

0 .2

0 .4

0 .6

0 .8

1 .0

0 .0 0 .1 0 .2

S p e c t ra l d is p la c e m e n t (m )

Sp

ec

tr

al

ac

ce

ln (

g)

C a p a c ity C u rv e

D e m a n d C u rv e

P e rc e n ta g e o f d a m a g e d b u ild in g s in d a m a g e s ta te s

0 %

5 %

1 0 %

1 5 %

2 0 %

2 5 %

3 0 %

N o

D a m a g e


E x a m p le F ra g il i ty C u rv e s

0 %

1 0 %

2 0 %

3 0 %

4 0 %

5 0 %

6 0 %

7 0 %

8 0 %

9 0 %

1 0 0 %

0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .1 0 0 .1 5 0 .2 0

S p e c t ra l R e s p o n s e (m )

Pe

rc

en

ta

ge

o

f b

uil

din

gs

ex

ce

ed

ing

d

am

ag

e s

ta

te


P e r f o rm a n c e P o in t

Sp

ectr

al A

cce

lera

tio

n

Perc

enta

ge o

f exceedin

g

dam

age

Typology Description Min Mean Max

M1 Stone Masonry Bearing Walls made of...

M1.1 Rubble stone, fieldstone 0.62 0.873 1.02

M1.2 Simple stone 0.46 0.74 1.02

M1.3 Massive stone 0.3 0.616 0.86

M2 Adobe 0.62 0.84 1.02

M3 Unreinforced masonry Bearing walls with...

M3.1 Masonry with Wooden slabs 0.46 0.74 1.02

M3.2 Masonry vaults 0.46 0.776 1.02

M3.3 Composite steel and masonry slabs 0.46 0.704 1.02

M3.4 Reinforced concrete slabs 0.3 0.616 0.86

M4 Reinforced or confined masonry walls 0.14 0.451 0.7

M5 Overall strengthened 0.3 0.694 1.02

RC1 Concrete Moment Frames -0.02 0.442 1.02

RC2 Concrete shear walls -0.02 0.386 0.86

RC3Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry infill

walls

RC3.1 Regularly infilled walls -0.02 0.402 0.98

RC3.2 Irregularly infilled walls 0.06 0.522 1.02

RC4 RC Dual systems (RC frame and wall) -0.02 0.386 0.86

RC5 Precast Concrete Tilt-Up Walls 0.14 0.384 0.7

RC6 Precast C. Frames, C. shear walls 0.3 0.544 0.86

S1 Steel Moment Frames -0.02 0.363 0.86

S2 Steel braced Frames -0.02 0.287 0.7

S3 Steel frame+unreinf. mas. infill walls 0.14 0.484 0.86

S4 Steel frame+cast-in-place shear walls -0.02 0.224 0.54

S5 Steel and RC composite system -0.02 0.402 1.02

W Wood structures 0.14 0.447 0.86

Vulnerability Index

RISK-UE

Building Typology MatrixBuilding Types of HAZUS-1999

Level 2 – Building Taxonomy


Assessment Methodology Components

Earthquake demand representation: Demand Spectrum

Structural system representation: Building Capacity

Spectrum

Structural response assessment: Performance Point


Assessment Methodology Components

Representation of damage probability: Fragility

Curves

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Spectral Displacement (cm)

Cu

mu

lati

ve D

amag

e P

rob

abil

ity

Slight Damage Moderate Damage Extensive Damage Complete Damage

,| (1/ ) ln( / )k dp k dp d kP Damage D S S S


Assessment

Spectral capacity based vulnerability and damage

assessment methodology

Casualty Assessment

The casualty estimation is based on HAZUS99 and HAZUS-

MH (2003) methodologies.

Grid based demographic data defining the number of

people residing in each geo-cell should be provided.

The output consists of a casualty breakdown by injury

severity level, defined by a four level injury severity scale

(Durkin et al. 1991, Coburn 1992, Cheu 1994).

The casualty model itself in fact is based on the models

suggested by Coburn and Spence (1992), Murakami (1992)

and Shiono et al. (1991).

However, unlike other approaches, the methodology is in

event-tree format and thus is capable of taking into

account non-collapse related casualties.

Casualty Assessment To estimate the casualties from structural damage, the

model combines inputs from other HAZUS modules including

the probability of being in the damage state and the

relationship between the general occupancy classes and the

model building type with specific casualty inputs provided for

each damage state (D1-slight, D2 moderate, D3 Extensive, D4

Complete, D5 complete with collapse structural damage) in

combination with occupancy data and time event.

Casualties for any given building type, building damage

level and injury severity level can be calculated by the

following equation:

Kij = Population per Building * Number of Damaged Building in

damage state j* Casualty Rate for severity level i and damage

state j

Conclusions

Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies

can be reduced by timely and correct action after a

disastrous earthquake. Urban earthquake loss assessment

module of Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine-ELER

software can be used as an effective tool.

The ultimate goal is the rapid estimation of losses for

effective emergency response and public information after

potentially damaging earthquakes.

Although primarily intended for almost real-time estimation

of earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also

equally capable of incorporating scenario based earthquake

loss assessments and can be utilized for related Monte-

Carlo type simulations and earthquake insurance

applications

Conclusions

ELER software is under development and ELER V3.0 has

been released with new capabilities as:

- Calculation of ground motion parameter by “Modified

Kringing Method”

- User defined GMPE

- Economic loss estimation for Level1 and Level 2

- User defined vulnerability parameters for Level 1

- Pipeline damage assessment module

ELER software will be used as the basic risk assessment

tool in EMME: Earthquake Model of Middle East which is a

regional application of GEM: Global Earthquake Model

ELER V3.0 software can be downloded from

ftp://www.orfeus-eu.org/pub/software/ELER




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