URBAN AGE CONFERENCE

GOVERNING URBAN FUTURES

“I regard the growth of cities as an evil thing, unfortunate for mankind and the world. ”

0.2

.4.6

.81

Sh

are

Urb

aniz

ed

$0-1000 $1000-2000 $2000-3000 $3000-4000 $4000-5000

Source: World Bank

Share of Countries over 1/3 Urbanized, by GDP per Capita (2012 $)1960 and 2010

1960 2010

67

89

10

11

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1% Urbanization, 2010

Log of P.C. GDP 2010 PPP Fitted values

Rwanda

MaliGhana

India

Moldova

Iraq

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Morocco

Guatemala

Indonesia

Ukraine

Thailand

Bulgaria

South Africa

RomaniaMalaysia

Argentina

Mexico

Russian FederationBrazil

Uruguay

Poland

Slovenia

CyprusSpain

New ZealandItaly

United Kingdom

France

Germany

Japan

Finland

CanadaUnited StatesNetherlands

Sweden

AustraliaNorway

-.1

0.1

.2

Urb

an

-Ru

ral H

ap

pin

ess

4 6 8 10 12Log of Per Capita GDP

Government Effectiveness and Urbanization

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Burundi

Liberia

Niger

Malawi Mozambique

Sierra Leone

Central African RepublicAfghanistan

UgandaTanzania

Rwanda

Togo

Nepal

Gambia, The

Zimbabwe

Mali

Haiti

Bangladesh

BeninKenya

Cambodia

TajikistanKyrgyz Republic

Lesotho

Pakistan

Senegal

MauritaniaCameroon

Lao PDRCote d'Ivoire

Vietnam

Zambia

Yemen, Rep.

Ghana

Papua New Guinea

India

Nicaragua

Sudan

Moldova BoliviaHonduras

Philippines

Mongolia

Sri Lanka

Iraq

Egypt, Arab Rep.Morocco

Paraguay

GuatemalaSyrian Arab Republic

Indonesia

Congo, Rep.

Ukraine

GuyanaArmeniaEl Salvador

Tonga

SwazilandFiji

Albania

Ecuador

Belize

TunisiaJordan

China

Algeria

ThailandNamibiaJamaica

Dominican Republic

Serbia

Peru

ColombiaBulgaria

Maldives

South AfricaBotswana

Mauritius

Panama

Romania

Costa Rica

Malaysia

Gabon

KazakhstanArgentina

MexicoTurkey

Russian Federation

Latvia

Brazil

Lithuania UruguayPoland

Chile

HungaryCroatia

Venezuela, RB

Estonia

Barbados

Trinidad and Tobago

Slovak Republic

Saudi Arabia

Bahrain

Czech RepublicMaltaKorea, Rep.

PortugalSlovenia

Greece

Israel

Cyprus

SpainBrunei Darussalam

Hong Kong SAR, ChinaNew Zealand

Italy

United KingdomFranceIceland

United Arab Emirates

Germany

Singapore

Belgium

Japan

Finland

Austria

Kuwait

Ireland

Canada

United States

Netherlands

Sweden

Australia

Macao SAR, China

Denmark

Switzerland

Qatar

NorwayLuxembourg

Libya

Iran, Islamic Rep.

Cuba

Myanmar

-2-1

01

2

Go

vern

men

t E

ffectiven

ess

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Urbanization Share

Author: Branille

Engineering vs. Economics

Anarchy vs. Authority

Photo by SuSanA Secretariat RayKelly by David Shankbone

The Brazil Model: The Dentist and the Supermarket

Supermarket by Wonderlane

The Great Chinese Housing Boom

People lining up outside a residential project before sales

start. Hefei, Anhui Province.

China’s Great Boom:

Prices are way higher than physical costs of construction

Beijing

Changchun

ChangshaChengdu

Chongqing

Guangzhou

GuiyangHaikou

Hangzhou

Hefei

Hohhot

JinanKunming

Lanzhou

Nanchang

Nanjing

Nanning

Shanghai

Shenyang

ShijiazhuangTianjinUrumqi

Wuhan

XiAn

XiningYinchuan

Zhengzhou

24

68

10

Pri

ce/C

ost

of C

onst

ruct

ion

5000 10000 15000 20000Price (RMB/m2)

Image by QuarterCircleS