Uranium post-Fukushima: the impact on equities
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Transcript of Uranium post-Fukushima: the impact on equities
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INDUSTRIAL METALS, MINERALS & MINEABLE ENERGYINVESTMENT SUMMIT
IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● THURSDAY, 3 NOV 2011
www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com
Uranium post-Fukushima: the impact on equitiesPhilip Macoun – CRU Strategies
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Uranium Post Fukushima – the Impact on Equities?
Philip Macoun
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Uranium equities - Dumped in March, then it just got worse
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 3
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Continuing lack of interest – volumes are minimal
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 4
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Even less interest in physical U3O8
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 5
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Presentation Outline
• Introduction to CRU• A brief look at the fundamentals• Mining costs• Will uranium attract sufficient investment to meet future
supply needs?• Summary
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 6
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Presentation Outline
• Introduction to CRU• A brief look at the fundamentals• Mining costs• Will uranium attract sufficient investment to meet future
supply needs?• Summary
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 7
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CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 11
Published reports and consulting assignments
In Uranium.....
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Presentation Outline
• Introduction to CRU• A brief look at the fundamentals• Mining costs• Will uranium attract sufficient investment to meet future
supply needs?• Summary
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 12
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Short term impact of Fukushima on demand is significant; longer term a reduction of around 3-4% per annum. Net Primary Demand, pre-Fukushima forecast vs. preliminary post-Fukushima numbers
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 13
0
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
kt U
3O8
Pre-Fukushima Preliminary Post-Fukushima
Short-term down10-20% per annum
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0
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pote
ntial
Sup
ply
kt U
3O8
Mine supply has the potential to outstrip demand in the short-term...
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 14
Almost 6% growth per annum in potential supply
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Our five year balance: Short-term downward pressure on price; we are still short of uranium in 5 years time
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 15
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
kt U
3O8
China Strategic stockpiling
Balance mostly taken up by reduction in supply and Chinese strategic stockpiling
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Presentation Outline
• Introduction to CRU• A brief look at the fundamentals• Mining costs• Will uranium attract sufficient investment to meet future
supply needs?• Summary
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 16
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Costs at ISL mines are more exposed to consumable prices; conventional mines are more sensitive changes to labour rates.Cost breakdown 2010, by input and mine type, weighted average according to 2010 production
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 17
14%
44%
65%
6%
17%
3%
51%
30% 22%21%
4% 5%7% 5% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ISL Open pit Underground
Labour Energy Consumables Services and Maintenance Capital
Averaging almost 80% H2SO4
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Sulphuric acid prices have risen considerably since 2009 increasing costs at ISL mines particularly in Kazakhstan
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 18
0
50
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2006
2007
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2010
2011
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2013
2014
2015
$/to
nne
Western Australia South Africa Black Sea
0
50
100
150
200
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300
350
400
450
500
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$/to
nne
FOB Vancouver
Sulphuric Acid Sulphur
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The commodities boom has lead to a severe shortage of skilled labour in the mining industry – uranium is no exception...
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ... 2015
Labo
ur ra
tes
in n
omin
al U
S$/h
r
USA Canada Australia
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...US dollar depreciation has compounded the problem in Australia and Canada, reducing competitiveness...
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 20
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Inde
x: L
ocal
cur
renc
y vs
. US$
Canadian Dollar Australian Dollar RSA RandZambian Kwacha Russian Rouble Kazakh Tenge
App
reci
atio
nD
epre
ciat
ion
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...however steep rises in wages are expected in the developing world.
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 21
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ... 2015
Labo
ur in
nom
inal
US$
/hr
Kazakhstan Russia South Africa
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Average costs in US Dollars are up more than 20% in 2010 compared to 2009Business Costs Curve 2010
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 22
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 600000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Nom
inal
US$
/lb
of U
3O8
Cumulative Production (tonnes U3O8)
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The project pipeline: lower grades and a smaller resource base on average...
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 23
0.1 1 10 100 1000 100000.1
1
10
100
1000
Closed MineOperating MineDevelopmentFeasibilityExplorationStalled
Pre-Mined Resource (mt ore)
Gra
de
(kg
U3O
8/t)
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...over the long term we still expect that a price over $60 will be required to attract sufficient new supply.Economic Costs Curve, 2030, 90th percentile
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 24
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Nom
inal
US$
/lb
of U
3O8
Cumulative Production ('000 tonnes U 3O8)
LRMC at $97/lb, or $63/lb in real terms
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Breakdown of uranium supply Uranium supply, by source type and by country
Primary Supply
Secondary Supply Reprocessed material from surplus nuclear weapons or used fuel
Mined uranium
Data: CRU
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Even after the impact of Fukushima on the demand outlook, the supply of primary uranium will need to nearly double by 2020
What is happening to primary supply ?
262010 2020
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Secondary
Primary
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Even after the impact of Fukushima on the demand outlook, the supply of primary uranium will need to nearly double by 2020
What is happening to primary supply ?
272010 2020
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
SecondaryPrimary
Primary supply must
increase by 98% !
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Presentation Outline
• Introduction to CRU• A brief look at the fundamentals• Mining costs• Will uranium attract sufficient investment to meet future
supply needs?• Summary
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 28
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CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 29
0
200
400
600
800
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1200
1400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f
Pric
e In
dex:
200
0=10
0
Uranium Oil Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f
Pric
e In
dex:
200
0=10
0
Base Metals Uranium
The uranium price has outperformed all base metals over the last decade... Base metals index: Aluminium, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin and Zinc
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...however prices have tracked much more closely over the last five years
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50
100
150
200
250
Base Metals Uranium
Price
Inde
x: 2
006=
100
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Compared to other mined commodities uranium prices are expected to perform well over the next 5 years...
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 31
Tin, Zinc, Uranium, Nickel, Aluminium, Molybdenum, Vanadium, Alumina, Cobalt
Manganese, Copper, Lead, Palladium
Platinum, Potash, Iron Ore, Finished Steel (HRC)
Met Coke, Phosphate Rock, Tungsten, Gold Ammonia, Coking Coal, Urea, Sulphuric Acid,
Silver, Sulphur
Arid (+15%)
Tropical(0 to +15%)
Temperate(0 to -15%)
Polar(-15%)
Source: CRU Note: * 2016 annual outturn price forecast (Nominal US$ or benchmark) versus Sep 2011 spot
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However, from an investors perspective the ideal commodity is NOT all about price!
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 32
Supply Constraints is there a scramble emerging?
Resource availability
Producer consolidation
Supply response
Demand Issues the market now and in the
future
Consumption growth
Substitution
Recyclability
Regional issues – what are the risks?
Entry opportunities
Attitude to mining
Synergy issues
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Uranium has been scored against a number of other commodities...
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 33
Wei
ght
Ura
nium
Pota
sh
Iron
Ore
PGM
Ther
m C
oal
Gol
d
Met
Coa
l
Nic
kel S
Nic
kel L
Tin
Copp
er
Alum
iniu
m
Silv
er
Zinc
Consumption growth 1 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 4 4 2 3Substitution 1 3 4 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 3 4 4 2 3Recycling 1 4 5 3 2 5 1 5 3 3 3 3 2 1 3Resources 1 3 2 1 4 2 3 5 5 3 4 3 3 2 2Supply Response 1 4 4 4 4 2 2 3 4 2 3 3 4 2 3Producer consolidation level
1 3 5 4 4 2 0 3 2 2 3 3 3 0 2
Entry Barriers 1 2 4 4 3 3 1 4 2 4 2 3 4 2 2Attitude to mining 1 2 3 4 2 4 4 4 4 2 3 3 2 4 4
Synergy / Technical Match
1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
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...and ranks highly despite a higher risk profile.
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 34
0
5
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Scor
e
Demand Supply Risk
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Presentation Outline
• Introduction to CRU• A brief look at the fundamentals• Mining costs• Will uranium attract sufficient investment to meet future
supply needs?• Summary
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 35
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Conclusions Uranium – Post Fukushima?
• The market impact of Fukushima– Significant in the short-term – to both demand and sentiment– Has not greatly altered the long-term demand– Life is now much more difficult for new projects
• Mining costs have risen above pre-global financial crisis levels...
• ...and are expected to rise further as projects in the pipeline have lower grades and a smaller resource base on average
• But – to meet rising demand, primary supply must double• Prices will need to rise to attract new investment • Uranium should be an attractive commodity for companies
and long-term investors going forwardCRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY 36
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Thank you
3737
CRU contacts for further information:
In LondonPhilip Macoun, Principal Consultant, CRU Strategies(+44 20 7903 2200 * [email protected] Hiscock, Consultant, CRU Strategies(+44 20 7903 2244 * [email protected]
In the USAIrv Adler, VP, Business Development, North America, CRU(+1 260 918 3643 * [email protected]
In SydneyPhilip Sewell, Business Development Manager, Australasia, CRU (+61 2 9387 8842 * [email protected]
In PerthAllan Trench, Regional Director, Australasia, CRU (+61 (0)43 709 2466 * [email protected]: www.crugroup.com