Collaborative Tracking of IPY Publications for the IPY Publications Database
Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY
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Transcript of Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY
Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY
U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)
WinterWinter
NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and
Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s
JapanJapanPalauPalau
Typhoon Landfall
EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]
WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP
Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon
U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF
TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
SoWMex
TH08
PROBEX
THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)/ Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008
• August-September 2008• Initial motivation from Asian and North American Regional Committees with significant EU participation and financial contribution
• Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in:
– tropical cyclone formation– intensification – Motion/track– decay and/or ET
• North American societal impacts from downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather with research interests in
– tropical and midlatitude predictability – tropical cyclones,
» ET – intense extratropical cyclogenesis
• International Collaborators: U.S. (NSF, ONR), Germany, Japan, China, South Korea, Canada, France, U.K., Taiwan
Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia
TY Tokage, October 2004Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system
Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa
Adaptive observations and plane sequencingNRL Singular vector sensitivity for TY Man-Yi (2007)
SV Graphic supplied by Dr.Carolyn Reynolds, NRL Monterey
THORPEX Working Group on Predictability and Dynamical Processes
Interest Group 4: The Impact of Extratropical Transition on the Downstream Midlatitude Predictability
Sarah Jones1 and Patrick Harr2
1Universitat Karlsruhe 2Naval Postgraduate School
GFS 500 hPa ensemble +108 h VT 1200 UTC 20 Sep 03
GFS ensemble members +00 0000 UTC 16 Sep 2003500 hPa height (m) at a 240 m interval
Hurricane Isabel
TY Nabi TY Saola
Impacts on Numerical Model Performance
HurricaneMaria
MOTIVATION: IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS
29/0830/0831/08
01/0902/09
03/0904/09
05/09
06/09
07/09
08/09
09/09 Variability among ensemble members as a measure of the predictability downstream from an ET event
Summary: Major Science Issues•Mechanisms
- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics- influence of TC structure
- outflow
- diabatic process and their impacts on the midlatitude flow
- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics
Tropical cyclone core region
Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface
Midlatitude impact region
Summary: Major Science Issues•Mechanisms
- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics- influence of TC structure
- outflow
- warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow
- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics
•Predictability (understanding and assessment)- Ensemble spread- Forecast error growth- Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response
- Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle
•Predictability (increase)- Predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to supplemental/targeted
observations - test new strategies and observational systems - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.
200 hPa meridional wind anomalies
Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream response
Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced downstream response
Ex-TY Nabi
Ex-TY Saola
PANDOWAE A new German research group for THORPEX PDP research
Partners: Sarah Jones (Speaker), Doris Anwender, Ulli Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier
(University of Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe) Heini Wernli, Volkmar Wirth (University of Mainz)
George Craig, Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Weissmann (DLR) Dieter Peters (Leibniz Institute for Atmospheric Physics) Conny Schwierz (University of Leeds)
2 Projects contributing directly to T-PARC (despite name of group!):
1) The impact of extratropical transition on downstream predictability (PI: Jones, 1 Postdoc, 3 Ph.D. students)
Data denial and data impact studies for ET in collaboration with ECMWF Investigation of singular vectors targeted on tropical cyclones and their impact on
ECMWF EPS forecasts
TIGGE case studies with high resolution modelling Idealised modelling and PV inversion
2) Adaptive observing strategies for active airborne remote-sensing instruments (PI: Weissmann, 1 Ph.D. student) – see Martin’s talk
Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector
NRL P-3 all FL 150OKO – 1 (33oN,141oE) 212 n mi1 – 2 (30oN, 142.5oE) 225 n mi2 – 3 (31.5oN, 146oE) 232 n mi3 – 4 (35oN, 142.5oE) 315 n mi4 – OKO 185 n mi
1169 n miDrops at waypoints and 60 n mi intervals
FALCON Mission in two stages with a re-fueling stop at MSJ
RJSM
0030 UTC 15 July 2007 TY Man-Yi
WC-1301787 n miDecaying TC Core
RODN
RJTA
NRL P-31986 n miET Ridge Building, warm frontogenesis
DLR Falcon Leg 11287 n miTC outflow-Jet InteractionLeg 2: 1414 n miTC outflow – Jet Interaction
DRIFTSONDE Released from HawaiiAltitude of 20-70 hPaApproximately 7 days to drift over the
Phillipine SeaDropsonde release controlled from
Boulder, CO
SummaryT-PARC and collaborating projects constitute a
GLOBAL OPERATION
Operations center, Monterey, CA
Driftsonde center,Boulder, CO
Driftsonde release,Hawaii
Aircraft locations, andaircraft operations centers
Guam
Japan
Taiwan
Okinawa
Japan, Atsugi, NAF
Okinawa, Kadena AFB
T-PARC Components
Guam, Andersen AFB
ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis
Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts
Midlatitude operating regionNRL P-3, FALCON
TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005
Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation
Tropical Measurements
Tropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130
Subtropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130
TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction
TC Intensification and structure changeRecurvature, initiation of ET