Updating Mongolia’s Energy Masterplan

Michael J. Emmerton, ADB Team Leader - 24 May 2013

Energy Masterplanning Challenges

• Large land area• Sparse population on the move• Minerals Extraction (mines)• Industrialization• Natural Fibres• Meat and milk• Oil refining• Minerals processing• Industrial Parks (smelters)

Mongolia’s 15 Strategic Mineral Deposits

Mongolia’s Potential Electricity Intensification

Mongolia’s Potential Demand Growth

Combined Heat & Power Plants

Myth no. 1 – Mongolia’s CHP Plants are inefficient

• Compared to modern plant• Water consumption high• Pollutants high

• Thermal Efficiency • CHP4 - total thermal efficiency ~ 55%• Power-to-Heat ratio ~0.29

CHP Cogeneration & Condensing Products

Myth no. 1 – Mongolia’s CHP Plants are inefficient

• CHP4 • Total thermal efficiency – 55%

• New CHP in Mongolia • Heat production efficiency – 89%• Electric power efficiency – 46.7%• Total thermal efficiency – 59.7%

• CHP in continuous cogeneration mode• Total thermal efficiency – 89%

Taishir Hydropower, Gobi Altai – 11MW

Myth no. 2 – Hydropower is best choice to serve Mongolia’s peak energy demand

• All previous studies have compared a hydropower plant to a ‘hypothetic’ gas turbine operating at time of peak load

• Cost estimates have been varied and generally too low

Mongolia’s Expected HPP Capital Costs

Project

Capacity

MW

Production

GWh

Hydraulic Head

(m)

Crest

Length (m)

Cost

$/kW

Egiin 220 412 73 710 2,827Sheuren 205 957 63 700 -1,200 2,969Burin 161 760 52 1,700 3,251Artset 118 553 57 1,400 3,362Orkhon 100 219 65 495 3,353Erdene-Burin 64 243 85 - 4,154

Chargait 15 68 24 570 3,716Maikhan 12 46 417 no dam 1,772UB Pump S 100 (102) 224 - 2,473

Myth no. 2 – Hydropower is best choice to serve Mongolia’s peak energy demand

• Design optimization shows that an HPP c constructed on Sheuren river system has optimal design, from cost and energy perspective, if• 390MW• 1,260GWhr per annum• Capacity factor ~ 55%

Sheuren HPP (300MW) DespatchMay 2022

Newcom Salkhit Windpark – 50MW

Myth no. 3 – Mongolia’s Wind & Solar resources can be exploited to supply Asia

• Wind and solar PV suffers from intermittency

• In Mongolia there is little wind in winter months

• Across vast distances in Mongolia, and with a small capacity system, controlling a transmission grid with significant intermittent power sources is a complex undertaking

Diurnal Net Power Production (200MW Wind)

Economics of Energy Technology in Mongolia

Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia

• Heat Supply• A new CHP plant is the most economical heat

supply for UB city • Large Heat Only Boiler (HOB) is needed to

bridge from now to 2018• Total investment in heat supply will be of the

order of $3.5B (money of the day basis).

• Half of the Aimag heating systems need replacement within the next five years at a cost of around $ 150m.

Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia

• Hydropower in 2022• Capacity 390MW, min 1,000GWh p.a.• Est. Cost $900m• Benefits• Reduced operating costs• More wind farms• Provides opportunity for Mongolia to

develop the capability to control system frequency across its vast transmission network

Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia

• T&D Networks• Strengthen to reduce energy losses, improve

reliability• Economic to supply mines up to 100MW if

within 300km of existing grid

• In time create a Mongolian super-grid at 400kV to support industrial centres

Investment in Transmission & Distribution

Support Clean Energy Research

• Under Mongolian conditions • Renewable energy technologies - solar

heating schemes, geothermal schemes• Involve the young and brightest engineers in

interesting projects that support Mongolia’s future direction