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Updated Indian elections forecast
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SentElectTM: Forecasting Elections based on Sentiments in Social Media
V.S. SubrahmanianSentiMetrix, Inc. & University of Maryland
Apr 19 2014
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
This work was performed for Sentimetrix, Inc.
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SentElectTM Election Application
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
On May 8 2013, Sentimetrix predicted the outcome of the upcoming Pakistan election in front of 100+ people in V.S. Subrahmanian’s keynote at the Sentiment Analysis Symposium in New York City
On May 9, the BBC said the election was too close to call “Pakistan Elections: Five Reasons why the vote is unpredictable”
Sentimetrix was correct!
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SentElectTM
• Currently tracks Twitter feeds on virtually any topic– Politicians– Political parties– Issues (in progress, expected completion April 2014)
• Identifies intensity of sentiment on each topic in each tweet.• Forecasts trends in terms of expected number of
supporters/opponents on Twitter• Identifies individuals who are most influential in shaping an
opinion/trend• Provides a single dashboard to cover all of this.
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
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SentElectTM
SentElectTM Functionalities Business UseIdentify sentiment and changes in sentiment on any given topic
Track sentiment on both your political campaign as well as your competitor’s
Learns a model on “big data” showing how support/opposition to a topic spreads
Understand how your campaign (and your opponent’s) are doing with voters and why
Forecast the expected number of people who will support/oppose a topic
Forecast how many people support/oppose your campaign and/or your opponent’s
Identify the most important individuals responsible for shaping/spreading opinion on a topic
Identify those shaping positive/negative opinion about you and see if you can get them to work on your behalf. Engage with influential Twitter users
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
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SentElectTM Case Study
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
• Upcoming Indian election• Identified 31 entities to track.• Learned diffusion models from July
15 – Jan 25 2014.• Tested models on Jan 25-Feb 20 data
(~26 days)• Forecast trends on all 31 entities
from Feb 20 2014 to May 15 2014.• Tested diffusion forecasts on January
25-Feb 20 2014 data with Pearson correlation coefficients consistently over 0.8, usually over 0.9.
SUMMARY STATISTICS
• Study reported here uses data from July 2013 to Feb 20 2014
• Forecasts made till May 15 2014.• 19.5M tweets studied in all• 16M distinct Twitter accounts • 40M edge networkTwitter collection done using Twitter ontology and semantic database developed by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. [@jahendler]
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BJP Forecast
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
July 15 2013
Feb 24 2014 Mar 24 2014
May 15 2014
OUTLOOK
• Positive support for BJP is growing at a faster rate than negatives.
• Outlook is good but more or less same as March 6 forecast.
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Narendra Modi Forecast Forecast
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
July 15 2013
Feb 24 2014Mar 24 2014
May 15 2014
OUTLOOK
• Positive support for Modi is growing at a much faster rate than negatives.
• Outlook is very good and has improved since our March 6 forecast.
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UPA Forecast
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
July 15 2013
Feb 24 2014 Mar 24 2014
May 15 2014
OUTLOOK• Opposition
to UPA exceeds support. It is also growing at a slightly faster rate.
• Outlook for the UPA is not good and has worsened slightly since the March 6 forecast
• Number of people tweeting about UPA is way smaller
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Congress Party Forecast
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
July 15 2013
Feb 24 2014
Mar 24 2014
May 15 2014
OUTLOOK• Congress
has more supporters than opponents.
• Growth in support Iarger than growth in opposition
• But number of supporters is small compared to BJP.
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Rahul Gandhi Forecast
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
July 15 2013
Feb 24 2014Mar 24 2014
May 15 2014
OUTLOOK• Sentiment
on Rahul Gandhi is strong and growth in supporters outweights growth in opponents.
• But in raw numbers, his 1/3 the supporters that Modi has.
• Outlook is good but not great.
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Arvind Kejriwal Forecast
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
July 15 2013
Feb 24 2014Mar 24 2014
May 15 2014
OUTLOOK• Kejriwal
will have more opponents than supporters by early May.
• Steep increase in both supporters and opponents around mid-December 2013.
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SentElect Summary Statistics
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
BJP Narendra Modi
UPA CongressParty
RahulGandhi
ArvindKejriwal
#Supporters Mar 24 2014
294848 96376 59880 9324 102541 54777
#Opponent Mar 24 2014
211002 43217 71514 5839 59958 42367
#SupportersMay 15 2014
385819 102669 68926 11289 147989 64371
#OpponentMay 15 2014
257902 48002 81436 7948 65820 71717
Accuracy (PCC*) Pos.
0.999 0.998 0.998 0.977 0.995 0.979
Accuracy (PCC) Neg.
0.988 0.998 0.998 0.970 0.996 0.971
* Pearson Correlation Coefficient
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Head to Head: BJP vs. UPA/Congress
• Mar 24 2014: – BJP shows almost 5 times as many supporters
as Congress/UPA supporters, up in ratio from a month back.
– BJP opponents are less than 3 times as many as Congress/UPA opponents.
– So BJP is doing well.• Forecast for May 15 2014:
– BJP will have almost 3x supporters as compared to opponents.
– Congress/UPA has about 10% more opponents than supporters.
• BJP’s outlook in terms of positives and negatives shows a combined growth.
• But UPA/Congress combined negatives exceed positives.
• And support for UPA/Congress is tepid raising the question of Congress/UPA supporters showing up to vote.
• In general, till May 15 2014, BJP seems to garner more support than Congress/UPA.
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
BJP -5/15
UPA/Congress - 5/15
BJP - 3/24
UPA/Congress - 3/24
0
500000
1000000
SupportOpposition
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Head to Head: Narendra Modi vs. Rahul Gandhi
• Mar 24 2014:– Mr. Gandhi has about 5% more
supporters than Mr. Modi.– But Mr. Gandhi has 1.4x as many
opponents in comparison to Mr. Modi.
• May 15 2014:– In terms of supporters, Mr. Gandhi
is pulling ahead of Mr. Modi with 1.5x supporters compared with Mr. Gandhi.
– But on opponents, Mr. Gandhi has 1.3x of the opponents Mr. Modi has.
• This reverses a trend seen in our Mar 6 2014 forecast.
• Head-to-head, Mr. Gandhi has improved his showing in between Feb 20 and Mar 24.
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
Modi -5/15
Gandhi - 5/15
Modi - 3/24
Gandhi - 3/24
0 100000 200000 300000
SupportOpposition
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Head to Head: Rahul Gandhi vs. Arvind Kejriwal
• Mar 24 2014:– Mr Gandhi has 2x supporters
w.r.t. Mr. Kejriwal– But he has 1.4x opponents w.r.t.
Mr. Kejriwal (down from 2x in our Feb 6 forecast)
• May 15 2014:– Mr. Gandhi will have over 2x
supporters that Mr. Kejriwal [an about turn from our Mar 6 forecast!]
– Mr. Kejriwal will have 1.2x opponents w.r.t. Mr. Gandhi, a significant reduction of the ratio from the last month.
• In short, Mr. Gandhi has made an about-turn in the race in terms of positives.
• Congress/UPA should outperform AAP/Mr. Kejriwal.
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
Kejriwal -5/15
Gandhi - 5/15
Kejriwal - 3/24
Gandhi - 3/24
0 100000200000300000
SupportOpposition
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Head to Head: Narendra Modi vs. Arvind Kejriwal
• Mar 24 2014:– Mr Modi has 1.9x supporters as Mr.
Kejriwal– But on opponents, he is more or
less even with Mr. Kejriwal (a sharp reduction from our Mar 6 talk)
• May 15 2014:– Mr. Modi and Mr. Kejriwal will have
about 1.6x the supporters of Mr. Kejriwal
– Mr. Kejriwal will have about 1.5x the number of opponents as Mr. Modi
• Overall, the situation in the Modi vs. Kejriwal race has not changed much.
• Though support for Mr. Kejriwal is growing, opposition is growing at a much faster rate.
• We expect BJP to handily outperform AAP/Mr. Kejriwal.
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
Kejriwal -5/15
Modi - 5/15
Kejriwal - 3/24
Modi - 3/24
050000
100000
150000
200000
SupportOpposition
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Forecast Summary
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
Forecast #1
• Narendra Modi will be India’s next Prime Minister.
Forecast #2
• BJP (by itself) will fall short of a majority in Parliament, securing less than 272 seats.
Forecast #3
• Next Indian government will be a BJP-led coalition
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Forecast Risks
• Our forecast can go wrong.– Risk #1 Forecasting based on unsupervised learning is difficult at
best. No training data connecting votes on the ground in India to number of supporters/opponents on Twitter. Selection bias.
– Risk #2 Forecast is based on publicly available Twitter data, not on entire Twitter fire-hose.
– Risk #3 Twitter-based and technology based risks: geo-location issues, bots/sybils/fake accounts.
– Risk #4 Changing situation on the ground with new allegations (e.g. corruption) emerging frequently.
– Risk #5 External events we can’t control for (e.g. terrorist attacks) can dramatically change the electoral landscape.
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
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One Sybil’s strategy: @IsabellaObregom
1. Take tweet from a reputable account:– @AapKaJawab, an Aam Aadmi Party enthusiast, retweets:
“Arvind Kejriwal breaks into Manna Dey song on brotherhood at swearing-in – http://t.co/bVCHPte60k”
2. Follow link, rewrap in new shortened URL– @AapKaJawab’s link leads to an Indian news article– @IsabellaObregom shrinks URL with Adf.ly, tweets:
“Arvind Kejriwal breaks into Manna Dey song on brotherhood at swearing-in http://t.co/81cq9eyrNh”
3. @IsabellaObregom now paid per click through Adf.ly!
(In early 2014, Adf.ly and Twitter suspended account – original owner tweeted only in Spanish)
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
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A larger Sybil network in our dataset
• We found many Sybil/bot accounts• @Marie____Taylor and @Amy____Jones tweet
identically, except different shortened links.– Overlapping network of followers– 100K+ tweets– Many “smaller” inactive followers, each following 30-
40 random people, with 30-40 bot followers.– Related: @Lea___Smith, @Megan__Martinez, etc…
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
21© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014
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SentiMetrix Contact Information
• Address 6017 Southport Drive20814 Bethesda MDUSA
• E-mail [email protected]
• www.sentimetrix.com• Telephone +1 240 479
9286
• V.S. Subrahmanian• Twitter: @vssubrah• Email:
[email protected]• www.cs.umd.edu/~vs/• Telephone: +1 301 405
6724
© Sentimetrix, IncAll rights reserved 2014