17th World Chlor-Alkali Conference 1

Update on the power situation in Asia

Edgar van der Meer Energy Analyst

June 21, 2013

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Outline• Generation Capacity

• Asia and Selected Countries

• Global Fuel Costs

• Demand• Asian Demand

• Worldwide trends

• Energy Shortfall

• Outlook• Where are the tariffs

headed?

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2013 Electricity Generation Capacity

• In 2013, over half of Asia’s Electricity Generation Capacity is fueled by Coal

• Over ¾ of supply will come from only 3 sources: Coal, Hydro & Gas

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2020 Electricity Generation Capacity

• While lower, Coal will still be the major source for installed capacity in 2020

• Hydro and Gas remain in the number 2 and 3 spots but there’s an increasing mix

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2020 Comparison Asia vs. World

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Generation Capacity (MW) China

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Generation Capacity (MW) India

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Generation Capacity (MW) Indonesia

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Generation Capacity (MW) Japan

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Generation Capacity (MW) Korea - South

June 21, 2013

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Price Effects of Coal-Fuelled Electricity Generation

Positives

• Wide Availability

• Easy Transport

• High Energy Value

Negatives

• Carbon Taxation

• High Capital Cost

• Environmental Cost Recovery

June 21, 2013

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Price Effects of Gas-Fuelled Electricity Generation

Positives

• High Energy Value

• New Reserves Increasing Supply

• Efficiencies in use of Technology (CC / ACT)

Negatives

• Difficult Transport

• Centralized Availability

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Generation Capacity Conclusions

• Asian Electricity Sector has a heavy reliance on Coal

• Disproportionate to the Rest of the World

• Gas influence Rising

• High Oil Prices Pushing Diversification

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Price Developments of Fuel

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Raw Fuel Costs per kWh

June 21, 2013

Source: BP/EIA

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What was your share?

17,691,480,000,000 kWh

June 21, 2013

$4,560,834,057,610

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Net Generation and Net Consumption

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So where are we headed?

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Conclusions

• Dependency on Coal

• High oil prices

• Lower cost of Gas

• More grid interconnections

• Middle East Stability

June 21, 2013

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Thank you

June 21, 2013

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June 21, 2013

http://www.nrgexpert.com/chlor-alkali-conference-delegate-report/