Update on the OEDU Eoin Sweeney Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland Economics of Ocean and...
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Transcript of Update on the OEDU Eoin Sweeney Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland Economics of Ocean and...
Update on the OEDUEoin Sweeney
Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland
Economics of Ocean and Marine Renewable Energy Monday, 13st June, 2011
OE Development Roadmap
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2020
Support Pilot projects, new concepts
Full scale demonstrators
Small-scale arrays 10MW/20 devices
Arrays of 100s MW
500MW installedGovernment
Targets
OE Programme Actions
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2020
Establish grid-connected test facilities
Fund industry research, development and demonstration
Enhance Research Infrastructure
Undertake Strategic Environmental Assessment and establish new planning
system
Intensify resource and site assessment
Promote development of engineering and other supply chain capabilities
Support grid infrastructure development studies
Summary Progress since 2009
• Ocean Renewable Energy Development Plan formulated• Strategic Environmental Assessment nearing completion• Fit-for-purpose Planning system in the works• New national wave tank facility in planning as part of MERC• Development of open-ocean grid-connected wave test
facility underway• 20 industry projects supported +others by EI, with high
profile for a number of Irish technology developers • Complementary high-profile industry ICT initiatives as part of
SmartBay• Greater awareness of supply chain opportunities and
requirements
• Policy Juncture• Activities in several related areas – many policy
decisions open• Need to reform foreshore consenting• SEA on development scenarios to inform policy
going forward and ensure environmental considerations built into any development
• Year long study by consultants undertaken to produce SEA Environmental Report
Draft Offshore Renewable Energy Development Plan
SEA Development Scenarios to 2030
Low Scenario (MW)
Medium Scenario(MW)
High Scenario (MW)
Offshore Wind
800 2300 4500
Wave & Tidal Current
75 500 1500
Planning & Foreshore Leasing
• Foreshore Acts 1933 to 2009• Lease required for development• Regulatory functions transferred to Dept of
Environment January 2010• Marine Spatial Plan• Intention: Establish a robust and effective
foreshore consent system that provides rigorous environmental controls and that is integrated with existing consent systems relating to development on land.
SEA- Assessment Results in each assessment area
Assessment Area**
Fixed Wind (MW)
Wave: 0 to 100m Water Depth (MW)
Wave: 100m to 200m Water Depth (MW)
Tidal (MW)* Floating Wind (MW)
Total
1: East Coast (North)
1200 to 1500 1200 to 1500
2: East Coast (South)
3000 to 3300 750 to 1500 3750 to 4800
3: South Coast
1500 to 1800 6000 7500 to 7800
4: West Coast (South)
600 to 900 500 to 600 3000 to 3500 5000 to 6000 9100 to 11000
5: West Coast
500 5000 6000 to 7000 7000 18500 to 19500
5a: Shannon Estuary
0 0
6: West Coast (North)
3000 to 4500 7000 to 8000 6000 to 7000 750 to 1500 7000 to 8000 23750 to 29000
Total
9800 to 12500
12500 to 13600
15000 to 17500
1500 to 3000 25000 to 27000
63800 to 73600
SEA Conclusions: Cumulative Effects
• Possible to reach scenarios without significant adverse effects on environment
• Cumulative Assessment• Floating wind - still emerging• 4500MW fixed offshore wind potentially
achieved entirely off the east coast (areas 1 & 2) or entirely in area 6
• Significant wave resource could be developed in 4,5 and 6
• Tidal potential more constrained – Assessment Areas 2 and 6
Planning & Foreshore Leasing
• Foreshore Acts 1933 to 2009• Lease required for development• Regulatory functions transferred to Dept of
Environment January 2010• Marine Spatial Plan• Intention: Establish a robust and effective
foreshore consent system that provides rigorous environmental controls and that is integrated with existing consent systems relating to development on land.
OREDP Recommendations
9 Recommended Actions• Collaboration & Co-ordination• SEA Monitoring Requirements• Addressing Data, Information & Knowledge Gaps• Consenting & Permitting• Guidance & Advice
http://www.seai.ie/Renewables/Ocean_Energy/Offshore_Renewable_SEA/Consultation/
OREDP/SEA Next Steps
• Public consultation ended in April• Transboundary Consultation• + 60 submissions • Review feedback underway• Post consultation report• Finalise draft plan• Issue Ministerial statement as to how
environmental considerations integrated into plan and how feedback considered
Initial Industry Wave Development Zones
Produced to allow for a ‘ joined-up’ approachto :• Planning• Grid • Infrastructure• Services
Eirgrid now modelling connection scenarios at these locations
Industry Funding
•20 OEDU industry contracts now issued•Total value of projects €11.8m•Grant aid - €4.9m
Need to review strategy wrt OE technologies. Two aspects to industry strategy:Support devpt of Irish technologiesEncourage devpt of industry ‘cluster’
•Emphasis now on getting projects into the water•Support pilot deployments and pre-commercial arrays•Accelerate formation of supply-chain – MRIA, AOEA
Market Capture Infrastructure & Knowledge Diffusion
SMEs
Marine/Energy Research Centres
+Multinationals
ICT & Sensor Research Centres
En
gin
eeri
ng
an
d M
ari
ne
En
vir
on
men
tal M
on
itori
ng
an
d I
CT
Uti
liti
es S
T A
T E
A
G E
N C
I E
S
E U
R O
P E
En
terp
rise
Clu
ste
r Eff
ect
Venture Finance&
Seed Financing
FDI
Ocean Technology Companies
Marine Energy
Test Facilities
Marine Energy Cluster Strategy
HSE Management
Applied research
Laboratory testing
Computer Based
Analysis
Scale prototype testing
Prototype manufacturin
g
Testing facilities
Bespokemanufacturing
Demonstration site
development
Data gathering and analysis Intellectual
Property management
Certification process
Concept Design
Intellectual Property
Prototype Developme
nt
Tank Testing
Design for Manufactur
e
Demonstration Testing
Securing Funding Sales and Marketing
Concept Engineering
Market Analysis 3rd Party Data Validation
Prototype Certification
Overlaps with “Guide to an
Offshore Wind Farm”
Design for Manufactur
e
Computer Based
AnalysisTest Protocol
and Data Analysis
TRL 1-3
Proof of Concept
TRL 3 – 5
Concept Development
TRL 6 -7
Prototype Demonstration
TRL 8-9
Full Scale Demonstration
Technology Development
17
Drilling
Site Development & Proje
ct Consent
Installatio
n
Operation
& Maintenance
Decommissioning
Installation solutions & project
management
Device installation
vessel
Sea Based Support
Foundation/ reaction
installation vessel
ROV and dive support
Export and array cable
installation vessel
Offshore substation installation
vessel
Construction Ports and
docks
Installation Management
& Support
Foundation / Reaction
system
Electrical Connecting
Devices
Commissioning Electrical
Connection & Commission
Site Preparation
s
Installation HSE management
Onshore Civil Engineering
Temporary Pontoon
Structures
Commercial Deployment
18
Mayo Wave Test SiteFull-scale grid-connected
Galway Bay site¼ scale non-grid connected
StrangfordQUB Tidal Test facility
Research Infrastructure and Test SitesHow best to build and position these?Shift emphasis to support deployments?
CorkOE Test tank facility
AMETS- Lease application Q3
Construction and Installation Activities for Fixed Offshore Wind Farms Belfast Dublin Cork
Manufacturing Facility Associated with Fixed Offshore Wind Farms Belfast Cork Arklow
Wave Testing Support Shannon Galway Killybegs
Tidal Testing Support Derry Belfast Dublin Cork
Construction and Installation Activities for Commercial Scale Wave Killybegs Derry Shannon Galway Cork
Construction and Installation Activities for Commercial Scale Tidal Belfast Dublin Derry
Current RPS Study to identify Key Ports for MR Development and Shipping opportunities
We should see 2020 as a waypoint on a much longer path
Develop actions around a longer-term vision for electricity from offshore wind, as well as wave and tidal resources
2030 2040 2050
10GW 25GW ? ?
Big- picture Scenario
Ocean Energy in Europe
European Projections for Ocean Energy
Utilities announce ambitious plans for marine renewables:
EDF (France), Iberdola (Spain), RWE (UK), Statkraft (Norway) and Vattenfall (Sweden).
Vattenfall referred specifically to Ireland:
“Vattenfall, on its own, has ambitions for some 30 TWh for 2030+. Harvesting 30 TWh means an investment of some €15-20bn, and an annual O&M cost of some €0.5bn, initially half in Ireland, half in Scotland.” (World OE Conference)
3.6 GW40,000 jobs
188 GW
471,000 jobs
2020
2050
Indicative Value- UK Offshore Valuation Report 2010
Installed capacity Resource utilisation Capital expenditure Annual Revenue
Scenario 1 78 GW 13% £170B £28B
Scenario 2 169 GW 29% £443B £62B
Scenario 3 406 GW 76% £993B £164B
‘The UK is now most of the way through its first great offshore energy asset, our stock of
hydrocarbon reserves. The central finding of this report is that our second offshore
asset, of renewable energy, could be just as valuable. Britain’s extensive offshore
experience could now unlock an energy flow that will never run out.’
Boston Consulting Group 2010
Economic Potential for Ireland
2020
2030
Wave and tidal capacity and electrical generation potential to 2050
Ocean energy has potential to grow at differing ratesdepending on policy, device technology, and infrastructure
Eirgrid modelling
28
Cost Assumptions
Parameter 1 GW InterconnectorBetween IE and GB Between IE and FR
Capacity (MW) 1,000 1,000Specific Cost (€M / MW) 1.0 1.5
Total Cost (€M) 1,000 1,500Lifetime (years) 20 20
Discount Rate (%) 6 6Annual Cost (€M p.a.) 87.2 130.8
Parameter 1 GW Offshore WindCapital Cost Connection Cost
Capacity (MW) 1,000 1,000Specific Cost (€M / MW) 3.0 0.5
Total Cost (€M) 3,000 500Lifetime (years) 20 20
Discount Rate (%) 10 6Annual Cost (€M p.a.) 352.4 43.6
Routes are indicative only.
Planning at EU level
Renewables Supergrid
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by
Electricity generationincrease by at least
80%UN International Panel on Climate Change
100% International Energy Agency
We have a long way to go and others are moving faster...
Potential 2050Scenarion
50 GW Production€ 15bn - Export of
Electricity70 000 jobs
Research Infrastructure
SEA & Planning
Supply ChainGrid DevelopmentEnterprise
Development
Test Facilities
Scale and pace of actions not commensurate to the opportunity and challenge
• Expand the scope of the Ocean Energy strategy to include all marine renewable energy resources.
• Strengthen the mechanisms to implement the OREDP.
• Strengthen resources and accelerate planning around grid issues - reinforcement, offshore grid, interconnection, and mechanisms for the export of electricity.
• Galvanise actions to develop the supply chain.
Some key messages for action
Summary
• EU on once-off transition to low carbon society
• Green Power Generation is inevitable• We have Comparative Advantage in ocean
energies• Huge employment potential of wind, wave
and tidal• Huge Export Market on our doorstep• This is a unique economic opportunity
The message we want to put out
ICOE 2012The National Convention Centre
(Bilbao 2010 – 700 attendees)• Industry exhibition• Partners – IEA and European Ocean
Energy Association
36
Thank You