Update on Hurricane Modeling Scenarios in the Houston Region

Using ADCIRC

Clint Dawson and Jennifer Proft

Casey Dietrich, Nishant Panda, Adnan MuhammadAntonia Sebastian, Phil Bedient

SSPEED meeting Feb 14 2013

• Original landfall Ike

• Shifted Ike

• MightyIke (+15% windspeed )

• SuperIke (+30% windspeed)

• SH146 Levees and Hartman Bridge Gate

Hurricane Ike Scenarios

• Continuous Galerkin model

• OWI winds for Ike

• Coupled to SWAN

• 10 day simulation

• No tidal forcing, no riverine forcing

• Runs in about 5 hours on Lonestar with 2048 cores

ADCIRC Simulations

Bathymetry and Topography of Grid

Bathymetry and Topography of Grid

Bathymetry and Topography of Grid

Ike, Shifted Ike, MightyIke, SuperIke ADCIRC Scenarios

• Selected hurricane path and shifted landfall to 8 locations along coastline

• Modified OWI wind files to shift path of hurricane

• MightyIke: increase windspeed by %15 (high Category 3 at landfall)

• SuperIke: increase windspeed by %30 (Category 4 at landfall)

*Point 7 NEW LANDFALL (NL)

(OL)

Shifted Ike: Original Landfall and New Landfall

Shifted Ike: Original Landfall and New Landfall

Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)

Hurricane Ike: New Landfall (max water surface elevation)

MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)

MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall (max water surface elevation)

SuperIke (+30%): Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)

SuperIke (+30%): New Landfall (max water surface elevation)

Hydrographsof Hurricane Ike scenarios showing characteristics at various points of concern

Some Additional Scenarios Tested

• Implementation of Oyster Reef

• Ike Dike

• Hartman Bridge Gate (Levee)

• Combined SH146 Levee and Hartman Bridge Levees

SH146 and Hartman Bridge Levees ADCIRC Simulations• Modification of grid to incorporate a Weir Levee along this

route at a 22’ height• Hurricane Ike scenario• MightyIke• Shifted to New Landfall

Location of the SH146 Gate/Hartman Levees

Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall, with Levees

Ike track Storm 089

Storm 136

Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall

Hurricane Ike: New Landfall, with Levees

Hurricane Ike: New Landfall

MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall, with Levees

MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall

MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall, with Levees

MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall

• Run SH146/Hartman Levee grid with SuperIke

• Run SH146/Hartman Levee grid on synthetic storm tracks

• Run additional levee scenarios provided by SSPEED

Current and future steps

Ike track Storm 089

Storm 136Storm 076