UPDATE: Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric Observation Data · FPAW Fall 2018 ADO Update-2 MDM 18 October...
Transcript of UPDATE: Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric Observation Data · FPAW Fall 2018 ADO Update-2 MDM 18 October...
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Michael McPartland
FPAW Fall Meeting
18 October 2018
UPDATE:Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric
Observation Data
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited.
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 2MDM 18 October 2018
This material is based upon work supported by the Federal AviationAdministration under Air Force Contract No. FA8702-15-D-0001. Anyopinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed inthis material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflectthe views of the Federal Aviation Administration.
© 2018 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Delivered to the U.S. Government with Unlimited Rights, as definedin DFARS Part 252.227-7013 or 7014 (Feb 2014). Notwithstanding anycopyright notice, U.S. Government rights in this work are defined byDFARS 252.227-7013 or DFARS 252.227-7014 as detailed above. Useof this work other than as specifically authorized by the U.S.Government may violate any copyrights that exist in this work.
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 3MDM 18 October 2018
Outline
• Review of Summer FPAW Presentation
• Initial Comparison of MDCRS and EHS ADO Wind Estimates
• FAA Radars and Candidate Site Modifications
• Summary
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 4MDM 18 October 2018
• Aircraft measurements can be used for atmospheric observations
• Meteorological Data Collection & Reporting System (MDCRS) is current airborne source
• Mode S Enhanced Surveillance (EHS)widely available now
Aircraft-Derived Observations
Air referencedvector
Wind vector
ADS-B = Automated Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 5MDM 18 October 2018
Observation Source
HorizontalCoverage
Vertical Range
Update Period Latency Comment
ASOS 900 sites many at airports Surface only20 mins/
1 min 100 kft 12 hours < 2 hrsUsed primarily for forecast input data
MDCRSLimited fleet
coverage (~20%current US fleet)
Ground to typical cruise
altitudes
1 min ascent/ descent
7 mins cruise
17 minsAverage
Range(7 60+ mins)
Used primarily for forecast input data
Mode S EHSGrowing fleet
coverage (>50% current US fleet)
Ground to typical cruise
altitudes4.8-12 secs Seconds
Useful for forecast & real-time operations
ADS-B Wx Out(future)
None now, could be meaningful %
in future
Ground to typical cruise
altitudes~10 secs Seconds
Specifications not planned until at
least 2019
Observation System ComparisonsAv
aila
ble
Airc
raft-
Der
ived
O
bser
vatio
ns
ASOS = Airport Surface Observation SystemMDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection & Reporting System
Mode S EHS = Mode S Enhanced Surveillance
Aircraft-derived observations via Mode S EHS can be generated today without modifications to aircraft
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 6MDM 18 October 2018
Current System Characterization
• MDCRS: North American, 11 airlines reporting• E-AMDAR: Europe, 14 airlines reporting
Ground stations
Air data computer
Inertial reference
unit
GPS
Clock
ACARS Meteorological Community
Airlines
Typical Data• Winds• Temp
• RH%• EDR
E-AMDAR = European Aircraft Meteorological Data RelayACARS = Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System
RH = Relative Humidity EDR = Eddy Dissipation Rate
ARINC
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 7MDM 18 October 2018
Mode S EHS BasedObservation System
Aircraft collects data from its own sources:
GPS and on-board sensors
Mode S EHS enables interrogation of specific aircraft
registers to extract or derive aircraft winds and temperature
Air referencedvector
Wind vector
Register Content Comment
0x50• Ground speed• True air speed• Roll angle• Track angle
Used to estimate• Wind speed• Wind direction• Temperature
0x60• Mag heading• Mach• Altitude rate
0x44 • Wind speed/dir• TemperatureAbout 5% of EHS
A/C populate4.8 or 12 secs update rate
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 8MDM 18 October 2018
• FAA Mode S radars do not currently interrogate relevant registers*– Could do so with reasonable adaptations
• Lincoln MODSEF has been adapted to interrogate aircraft within range (60 nmi radius)
Lincoln Mode S EHSAircraft-Derived Observation Evaluation
MIT/LL Mode S Experimental Facility (MODSEF) 60 NM range
4.8s update rate
*FAA’s Fremont Valley BI6 radar at Edward’s AFB, whichfeeds High Desert TRACON (E10), conducts EHS interrogations
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 9MDM 18 October 2018
Comparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOS
Mode S EHS9809 observations
MDCRS120 observations
Nov 1, 20172-3:00 PM EST
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0
Age at 3 PM EST(minutes)
>80x increase in atmospheric observations with Mode S EHS vs MDCRS in this case
43
42Latit
ude
(deg
rees
)
Longitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees)
Latit
ude
(deg
rees
)
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
43
42
-72 -71 -70 -72 -71 -70
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 10MDM 18 October 2018
Mode S EHS (n=200986)
MDCRS (n=6465)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Num
ber o
f Obs
erva
tions
Mode S EHS (n=200986)
MDCRS (n=6465)
Comparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOS
Nov 1, 2017Observations across 24 hours
Significantly increased time and altitude coverage with Mode S EHS
(x10
000)
Pres
sure
Alti
tude
(kft)
Number of Observations (✕10,000) Local Hour of Day0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 5 10 15 20
Mode S EHS (n=200986)MDCRS (n=6465)
Mode S EHS (n=200986)MDCRS (n=6465)
Num
ber o
f Obs
erva
tions
(✕10
,000
)0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 11MDM 18 October 2018
MDCRS & MODSEFObservations Around KBED/KBOS
Magenta points in figures are RAP model grid points initialized from observation data
Opportunity for forecast models to assimilate higher quantities of more recent data
Mode S EHSMDCRS 0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
RAP = Rapid Refresh forecast model
Age at 3 PM EST(minutes)
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 12MDM 18 October 2018
Observation From MODSEF &Tech Center Radars
Snapshot ~Noon EST18 June, 2018
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 13MDM 18 October 2018
GAMode S Only
16%
AirlineMode S Only
15%
GA EHS22%
Airline EHS32%
AirlineMDCRS + EHS
14%
Airline MDCRS Only1% All Observed Aircraft
Observed Mode S Equipage (UPDATED)
MDCRSToday
EHS ADOsToday EHS ADOs
Tomorrow?
• Elwood, NJ radar• 1 week sampling window• Sep 24-30, 2018• 10498 unique A/C observed*
* Observed aircraft with Mode A and Mode C transponders not included in count
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 14MDM 18 October 2018
Outline
• Review of Summer FPAW Presentation
• Initial Comparison of MDCRS and EHS ADO Wind Estimates
• FAA Radars and Candidate Site Modifications
• Summary
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 15MDM 18 October 2018
• Outstanding question from Summer FPAW Mtg:How do EHS ADO wind estimates compare to MDCRS’?
• Analyzed 8 days of data of MDCRS aircraft arriving at KPHL– US registered A/C contributing to MDCRS were compared
• Compared each MDCRS report to geographically closest EHS ADO– Compared valid reports only (specified by roll flags, etc.)– Comparisons performed if both source had estimated wind speed of
5 knots or greater– EHS ADO were unfiltered
• I.e., no smoothing
MDCRS vs ADOs from EHS Data
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 16MDM 18 October 2018
Visual ComparisonMDCRS & EHS ADO Winds
Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625 UTC
77° W 76
° W 75
° W 74
° W 73
° W
38° N
39° N
40° N
41° N
Max Wind Speed = 113.3 kts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
altit
ude
(100
0 ft)
MDCRS
EHS ADO
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 17MDM 18 October 2018
Visual ComparisonMDCRS & EHS ADO Winds
Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625 UTC
Max Wind Speed = 50 kts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
altit
ude
(100
0 ft)
MDCRS
EHS ADO
Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625 UTC
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 18MDM 18 October 2018
Visual ComparisonMDCRS & EHS ADO Winds
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
EHS ADO
Wind Speed (kt)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
MD
CR
S
Win
d Sp
eed
(kt)
Speed: Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625
R-squared = 1.00
0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360
EHS ADOWind From Direction (deg)
0
45
90
135
180
225
270
315
360
MD
CR
SW
ind
From
Dire
ctio
n (d
eg)
From Direction: Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625
R-squared = 0.87
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
altit
ude
(100
0 ft)
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 19MDM 18 October 2018
Visual ComparisonMDCRS & EHS ADO Winds
Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0452 UTC
77° W 76
° W 75
° W 74
° W 73
° W
38° N
39° N
40° N
41° N
Max Wind Speed = 133.9 kts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
altit
ude
(100
0 ft)
MDCRS
EHS ADO
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 20MDM 18 October 2018
Visual ComparisonMDCRS & EHS ADO Winds
Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0452 UTC
Max Wind Speed = 75 kts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
altit
ude
(100
0 ft)
MDCRS
EHS ADO
Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0425 UTC
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 21MDM 18 October 2018
Visual ComparisonMDCRS & EHS ADO Winds
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
EHS ADO
Wind Speed (kt)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
MD
CR
S
Win
d Sp
eed
(kt)
Speed: Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0452
R-squared = 1.00
0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360
EHS ADOWind From Direction (deg)
0
45
90
135
180
225
270
315
360
MD
CR
SW
ind
From
Dire
ctio
n (d
eg)
From Direction: Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0452
R-squared = 0.98
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
altit
ude
(100
0 ft)
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 22MDM 18 October 2018
Visual ComparisonMDCRS & EHS ADO Winds
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
EHS ADO
Wind Speed (kt)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
MD
CR
S
Win
d Sp
eed
(kt)
Speed: all PHL 2018-01-17
R-squared = 1.00
0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360
EHS ADOWind From Direction (deg)
0
45
90
135
180
225
270
315
360
MD
CR
SW
ind
From
Dire
ctio
n (d
eg)
Dir: all PHL 2018-01-17
R-squared = 0.97
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
altit
ude
(100
0 ft)
24 Hr Period, 24 Unique Aircraft, Num Samples = 761
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 23MDM 18 October 2018
• 170 Sorties• 8 full days; Jan (x3), July (x2), August (x3)• Num Samples = 5387
• For reference– ASOS Accuracy: +/- 2 kt, +/- 3 deg– TAMDAR Accuracy: +/- 4 to 6 kt Vector RMS
Table of Results
RMSDifference
2.8 (2.6) 2.0 (1.9) 5.6 (5.5)
MDCRS to EHS ADOsVector (kt) Speed (kt) Direction (deg)
Wind Estimate Comparisons
( ) = Standard Deviation
Sheet1
Local Hour24-Sep25-Sep26-Sep27-Sep28-Sep29-Sep30-Sep
00330143
11197970
2224636465734
3225663564857
40156223
52133323
64153444
760122214177
81111615151013
91011412121412
101021815151312
114214127128
121144431
1360461063
141922025343015
153304138292918
16162133346
177432332
180131531
191322120
200111314
21603332323531
22144643425338
23012326302121
Number of NOAA Reported MDCRS flights in/out of KMEM (local time)
24-Sep01220246111010416193316701061025-Sep31221110112210202413104126-Sep394656535121614181444204113332133462327-Sep07366363322151215124625383212132432628-Sep19465623414151215741034293351332423029-Sep47574822417101413123630294332135532130-Sep3034573347131212813151862104313821Local Hour01234567891011121314151617181920212223
Sheet2
Wind Estimate Comparisons
MDCRS to EHS ADOs
Vector (kt)Speed (kt)Direction (deg)
RMSDifference2.8(2.6)2.0(1.9)5.6(5.5)
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 24MDM 18 October 2018
Outline
• Review of Summer FPAW Presentation
• Initial Comparison of MDCRS and EHS ADO Wind Estimates
• FAA Radars and Candidate Site Modifications
• Summary
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 25MDM 18 October 2018
Existing Secondary Surveillance Radars
TypeMonted on
Primary RadarSecondary Radar Only
Simplest EHS Adaptation
MSSR 65 0 0 -BI-5 48 1 0 -
MODE S 133 4 1 Sidecar PCBI-6 101 32 1 Config file edit
CountsCan Interrogate
Mode S Registers
FAA Beacon Interrogators
Typically 60 nmirange ASR
Typically 240 nmi range ARSR
MIT/LLMODSEF
Tech Centerradar
Sheet1
FAA Beacon Interrogators
Counts
TypeMonted on Primary RadarSecondary Radar OnlyCan Interrogate Mode S RegistersSimplest EHS Adaptation
MSSR6500-
BI-54810-
MODE S13341Sidecar PC
BI-6101321Config file edit
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 26MDM 18 October 2018
Lower 48 & Caribbean BI-6 Radars
= 240 nmi radius, w/ primary = 60 nmi radius, SSR only = 240 nmi radius, SSR only
BI-6 Secondary Surveillance Radars (N = 122)
120 ° W 110 ° W
100° W 90
° W 80
° W 70
° W
60° W
20 ° N
30 ° N
40 ° N
50 ° N
BI-6 Secondary Surveillance Radars(N= 122)
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 27MDM 18 October 2018
Changes to BI-6 to Enable EHS
• From Tech Center BI-6 radar Config file– These lines were added:
• Outstanding question: Are there ready means to move interrogated data off-site?
; *** Enhanced Surveillance ***PS309OFF ; Disable Surv. Only Mode (i.e. Enhanced Surveillance Enabled)IAL 0 = G 40 3 4IAL 1 = G 50 1 5IAL 2 = G 60 1 5
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 28MDM 18 October 2018
• EHS ADO & MDCRS Wind Estimates are very similar
• Leveraging aircraft-derived operations holds significant promise for improving weather forecasting and real-time operations
• Mode S EHS is a currently-available technology enabling immediate access to aircraft-derived observations
Summary
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 29MDM 18 October 2018
Backup
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 30MDM 18 October 2018
Lower 48 Mode S Beacon Interrogators
= 240 nmi radius, w/ primary = 60 nmi radius, w/ primary = Unknown range, SSR only
120 ° W 110 ° W 100
° W 90
° W 80
° W 70
° W
20 ° N
30 ° N
40 ° N
50 ° N
Mode S Secondary Surveillance Radars(N= 138)
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FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 31MDM 18 October 2018
Fremont Valley, CA, Elwood, NJ, Lexington, MA Mode S EHS Radars
Snapshot 3PM EST18 June, 2018
UPDATE:�Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric �Observation DataSlide Number 2OutlineAircraft-Derived Observations Observation System ComparisonsCurrent System CharacterizationMode S EHS Based�Observation SystemLincoln Mode S EHS�Aircraft-Derived Observation EvaluationComparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOSComparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOSMDCRS & MODSEF�Observations Around KBED/KBOSObservation From MODSEF &�Tech Center RadarsObserved Mode S Equipage (UPDATED)OutlineMDCRS vs ADOs from EHS DataVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsTable of ResultsOutlineExisting Secondary Surveillance RadarsLower 48 & Caribbean BI-6 RadarsChanges to BI-6 to Enable EHSSummaryBackupLower 48 Mode S Beacon InterrogatorsFremont Valley, CA, Elwood, NJ, Lexington, MA Mode S EHS Radars