It's no longer about

Caste & Religion

10 January 2017 Travelogue

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Up Election 2017: It's no longer about caste & religion The political consciousness of the people of Uttar Pradesh, has evolved materially in past one decade. Contrary to the popular narrative, the caste and religion, though still relevant, are not the primary considerations in the voters' mind. Nowhere, the voters are inclined to elect a candidate purely on the basis of caste or religion.

The general elections in India are famously projected as the final match of a tournament, in which many semi-finals are played. The strange part is that most of these semi-finals are inconsequential for the final match.

One such semi-final for the final match schedule to be played in summer of 2019, is going to start soon. In this five game match, the game to be played in Lucknow is being cited as the most important. The popular projection is that the winner in Lucknow game will be the favorite to win 2019 final. There is though little empirical evidence to substantiate this claim. In past three decades in particular, the results of the Lucknow game were mostly inconsequential for the subsequent finals in New Delhi.

In my view, the semi-finals to be played later this year in Gandhi Nagar, and next year in Bhopal and Raipur would be more interesting and relevant for the 2019 finals.

Anyways, since the Lucknow game is trending these day, it is better that I talk about that game only.

I visited the battlefield UP during my year end break. Incidentally, this was the time when the team currently holding the title (Samajwadi Party or SP) announced major injuries.

While driving through the vast expanse of the state glittering with the golden mustard flowers, I met many people, observed a lot things and formed some opinions. I may share some of the key observations and opinion with the readers.

"The curse of me and my nation is that we always think things can be bettered by immediate action of some sort, any sort rather than no sort."

—Plato (Greek, 427-347BC)

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Politics

1. The political consciousness of the people of Uttar Pradesh, has evolved materially in past one decade. Contrary to the popular narrative, the caste and religion, though still relevant, are not the primary considerations in the voters' mind. Nowhere, the voters are inclined to elect a candidate purely on the basis of caste or religion.

2. SP has been successful in projecting a strong personal identity of the CM Akhilesh Yadav, as distinct from the traditional caste-religion based political identity of Mulayam Singh Yadav and his brothers. BSP chief Mayawati has mostly failed in getting out of the old caste-religion paradigm. Rahul Gandhi led Congress continues to be as confused as ever. BJP is going into the fray hiding behind Pm Modi mask.

3 It is clear that the main contest is between Akhilesh Yadav led SP and PM Modi motivated BJP. A Congress and BSP alliance could add a third dimension to the contest, but such alliance would not be in contention. The only positive in favor of BSP is the better law and order record of previous BSP government.

4. In the last elections, the principle opposition SP had set the agenda and all other parties just responded to it. This time agenda has been set by PM Modi himself. Financial inclusion, compliance and fight against corruption is the primary agenda, with the usual development plank providing an active sub-plot.

5. I observed good support for PM Modi amongst the youth, in the Yadav majority areas of Central UP; women in the BSP's stronghold areas in Bundelkhand and Rohillkhand and Congress pocket Burroughs of Amethi, Sultanpur and Rai Bareilly. Leaders like Uma Bharti, Smriti Irani (surprise!), Rajnath Singh, Kalyan Singh are known and remembered. Atal Bihari Vajpayee continues to be popular, especially amongst minorities. Like 2014 general elections, RSS is working overtime in these elections also; unlike the 2012 assembly elections.

6. Mayawati appears losing support amongst her core dalit support group, especially young women.

Economy

1. The economy of the state is tough to understand. The trade and industry (except sugar) are generally stressed, like in other states. The rural sector does not appear buoyant either. But that might have something to do with recent factors like poor realization of potato crop; poor quality of cane crop and less than expected rise in cane support price. Otherwise, rural populace appears satisfied with the development on the front of electricity, road connectivity, primary education, government support for old, girls, and minorities. This is visible in stable public and private sector consumption.

2. Employment condition continues to be poor. The tendency to migrate is rising much faster amongst the educated.

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3. The currency ban has been mostly forgotten and forgiven, except by traders. There is little impact on the farm sector, but trade is hurting badly.

4. Real estate sector in the state is in distress. But it has more to do with the excessive rise in prices and euphoria during 2007-2010 phase, and less with the change in normalized demand. The urbanization is progressing well and demand for housing remains good, especially in urban areas. The lower interest rates are seen helping the demand further.

Society

1. The social divide on religious lines has strengthened in past few years.

2. The social divide on caste line is weakening.

3. Contrary to the popular perception, the social divide appears stronger in urban areas, as compared to rural areas. College going youth appears to be in favor of discrimination on the basis of religion.

Conclusion

Though these are still early days and the situation could change dramatically in next few days, I would still hazard an assessment of the election outcome.

In my view BJP will emerge as the single largest party, if Congress allies with SP or BSP.

Otherwise, BJP is poised to get a strong majority on its own.

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