www.goodmind.net from The Business Strategy Cookbook © Goodmind, LLC

UnknownOutcomeAnalysis

ServesUncovering and refining strategic priorities

Developing decision making parameters

Facilitating focused team discussion

Ingredients5-8 people

Decision

Moderator

Whiteboard

Markers

Time1 Workshop Session

www.goodmind.net from The Business Strategy Cookbook © Goodmind, LLC

1Summarize Decision at the top of the whiteboard.

2Briefly discuss the Decision, and list key questions, concerns orother indefinite Unknowns across the whiteboard.

3Draw vertical lines between each Unknown, and identify allPossible Outcomes (positive and negative) for each column.

5Discuss the first column, and select the most preferred Outcome.Note basis/criteria for selection, or Decision Driver, directly

underneath the column.

6Repeat for each remaining column.

7Discuss all identified Decision Drivers as they apply to the Decisionundergoing analysis. Rank in order of importance/influence.

8Optional: Determine how to apply Decision Drivers to futureDecisions.

Successes

►Creating metrics tomeasure intangibleoutcomes

►Articulating cohesive setof Decision Drivers

Messes

►Failing to explore bothpositive and negativepotential outcomes

►Identifying metrics, butnot how to measure them

Satisfies

►HR Directives►Prioritizing Projects►Corporate craving for talk-ing points

www.goodmind.net from The Business Strategy Cookbook © Goodmind, LLC

DecisionModerator WhiteboardMarkers

summarizedecision

discuss decision

list questions,concerns, &

unknowns acrosswhiteboard

identify all possibleoutcomes for each

column

discuss 1st column

select preferredoutcome

note basis/criteriaunderneath column

Symbol Key

moderator activity

repeat process

team technique

team activity

Team

repeat for remainingcolumns

discuss decisiondrivers

ingredient

divide intocolumns

rank decisiondrivers in order ofimportance

How do I narrow mystrategic direction?

Difficulty

Unknown Outcome Analysisorganizes and refines decisionvariables and facilitates team

discussion in order to identify aset of Decision Drivers, and

help build consensus.

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Recipe Lineage

Unknown Outcome Analysis is literally rocket science. It’s based onMorphological Analysis, a technique for structuring and solvingproblems. Developed in the 1960’s by Swiss astrophysicist FritzZwicky, Morphological Analysis systematically evaluates all of thepossible solutions to a complex problem.

For instance, Zwicky used Morphological Analysis to hypothesize theexistence of neutron stars, develop jet and rocket propulsion systems,and study the legal aspects of space travel. He is also credited withcoining the term “supernova.”

This variation is geared more towards developing a focused set ofstrategic priorities, and decision making parameters. It is a systematicway to tackle a complex decision, by breaking it down into the majorunknown, or indefinite outcomes, and selecting the preferred choicefrom of the full spectrum of possibilities.

Establishing the preferred outcome, and discussing the rationalizationbehind this preference, allows you to articulate the Decision Driver, orcriteria your team inherently uses when evaluating possible solutions,or strategic objectives. unknown Outcome Analysis expands Un-knowns into Possible Outcomes, generating a concise visualization ofimportant decision criteria.

www.goodmind.net from The Business Strategy Cookbook © Goodmind, LLC

Unknown X Unknown Y Unknown Z

PossibleOutcome 1

PossibleOutcome 1

PossibleOutcome 1

PossibleOutcome 2

PossibleOutcome 2

PossibleOutcome 2

PossibleOutcome 3

PossibleOutcome 3

PossibleOutcome 4

PossibleOutcome 5

DecisionDriver X

DecisionDriver Y

DecisionDriver Z

Decision: a short term, or ongoing strategic priority

After Decision

Drivers have been

identified, ranked, and fully

defined, your team is finally

ready to apply them to

the Decision at

hand.

Unknowns include

any decision related

questions and concerns, while

Possible Outcomes are the

range of ways a given un-

known could be resolved,

represented, or

realized.

Your team will

discuss the full set of

Possible Outcomes, and

select the preferable

option.

The reason one

Possible Outcome was

chosen over all others

constitutes the

Decision Driver.

Be as specific and as

extreme as possible in listing

the Possible Outcomes of each

Unknown. You never know what

can become a reality in the near

future, so try to approach this

step as identifying

“alternative solutions.”