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  • 1 Nokia 2015

    Mobile Network EvolutionUniversity of Oulu 9th October 2017

    Matti Keskinen

    Internal Consultant

  • 2 Nokia 2015

    Mobile network evolution from 4G to 5G 5G Standardization status and spectrum 5G Radio and Core (comparative between 4G and 5G) Architecture options

    Cellular IoT (Internet of Things)

  • 3 Nokia 2016

    Standardization status - 3GPP Timelines

    12/2017: Functional Freeze (L1/2)

    2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

    Rel15 (Phase 1)eMBB, FWALow Latency Communication (LLC) Apps.

    Non StandaloneWith EPC(Option 3)

    03/2018: Protocol (ASN.1) Freeze

    06/2018: Functional Freeze, NG Core

    09/2018: Protocol (ASN.1) Freeze

    Rel16 (Phase 2)Massive IoTEnhanced LLC Apps

    Rel17 Rel18Optimized StandardFull 5G vision> 52GHz

    5GTF/KT SIGindustry specs

    Pre-standards 5G start

    Standards-based 5G mass rollout

    First standards-based 5G deployments

    Non Standalone& Standalone with 5GC(Options 2/4/5/7)

    Expected NW Deployment Timelines

    ASN = Abstract Syntax Notation

    TF = Technical ForumKT = Korea Telecom

  • 4 Nokia 2016

    Chipset and device ecosystem timeline

    Public

    2017 2018 2019

    Pre-standard 5GTF / 5GSIG based

    3GPP based

    FPGA based CPE and antenna SOC based

    solutionsPortable devices

    Commercial CPE and antenna

    3GPP R15 FPGA based CPE

    SOC based solutions

    Portable devices

    3GPP R16 FPGA based CPE

  • 5 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    Stretching urban mobile data speeds

    Stretching Hot Spot data speeds

    700 MHz

    3.6 GHz

    eg 1-3 Gb/s over all towns and cities

    (mobile Gb/s society)

    eg 10 Gb/s at railway stations, airports, sporting events, Factories etc

    26 GHz

    eg 100% coverage of roads

    Stretching reliable coverage (rural) RSPG PIONEER BANDSRSPG = Radio Spectrum Policy Group

    5G Spectrum & Bands

    High data rates up to 20 Gbps require bandwidth up to 1 GHz which is available at higher frequency bands. 5G is the first radio technology that is designed to operate on any frequency bands between 450 MHz and 90 GHz.

    World Radio

    Conference

    2019

    Capacity

    Coverage

  • 6 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    Nokia engaged in all 5G target spectrum

    10 GHz

    2 GHz

    6 GHz

    30 GHz

    1 GHz

    60 GHz

    20 GHz

    LTE

    100 GHz

    802.11ad

    802.11ax

    802.11ax

    Trials in US @39GHzPoC work with DoCoMo @73GHz

    DominatesKorea Olympics andpre-standard US trials @28GHz

    Japan @4.5 GHz commercialChina, Korea @3.5GHz commercialEurope @3.4-3.8GHz commercial,discussions @700MHz, 2600 Mhz andothers802.11ah

    High Band

    Low Band

    NG ac

    5GmmWave

    (30-300GHz)

    Low Rank MIMO, BF

    5G cmWave

    (3-30GHz)

    Lower Rank MIMO,

    BF

    5G

  • 7 Nokia 2015

    Going towards 5GWhat LTE (4G) is giving to operators

  • 8 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    peak

    Global subscription evolution per technology

    Global LTE subscriber base maximizes benefit of LTE innovations

    2G (GSM)4G (LTE)

    3G (WCDMA)

    CDMA

    LTE More subscriptions than 2G

    and 3G combined in 2021

    WCDMA Expected to be surpassed

    by LTE during 2017

    GSM Expected to be surpassed

    by LTE during 2018

    5G new radio Massive subscriber take-up

    expected during 2020speak

    Subscriptions[Billions]

    Source: OVUM, February 2017

    Estimations:

    1991

    2001

    2010

    1993 5G

  • 9 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    From Vision to Reality 1 GB per User per Day

    Nokia vision from 2011 1 GB per user per day in 2020

    Mobile data in Finland 1 GB per day by end-2017

    4800 TB/day (June) with 5.5M population = 0.9 GB/user/day

  • 10 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    Global Mobile Data Usage Major Differences Between Markets

    USA, Japan

    UK, Poland

    France, Germany

    Finland

    Korea

    Latvia

    Sweden, Austria

    Mobile data usage per subscription per month

  • 11 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    Global Mobile Data Correlation between Usage and Speed

    The countries with the

    highest mobile data usage

    Finland, Taiwan and

    Latvia are just delivering

    27 to 33 Mbit/s.

    To defend Finland, a

    majority of the Finnish SIMs

    have unlimited data

    volumes, but most

    customers have decided

    not to pay for full speed

  • 12 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    DNA accelerating data usage in Finland

    DNA Q1 2017

    ELISA Q1 2017

    Telia Finland

  • 09/10/201713 Nokia 2014

    LTE Data Rate evolution - More Spectrum Means Higher Data Rates

    20122013

    150 Mbps

    20 MHz2x2 MIMO

    150 Mbps

    10+10 MHz2x2 MIMO

    2014

    2015

    300 Mbps

    20+20 MHz2x2 MIMO

    450 Mbps

    3CA2x2 MIMO

    1 Gbps

    3-5CA MHz or4x4MIMO

    2016

    600 Mbps

    3CA 256QAM

    2017

    LTE started with 150 Mbps (Cat 4) with contiguous 20 MHz

    Latest devices support already 600 Mbps with 3 Carrier Aggregation

    Chip set capability allows 1 Gbps devices by 2017 which requires typically80-100 MHz of downlink spectrum.

    xCA Carrier Aggregation, x=number of aggregated carriers

    MIMO Multiple Input Multiple Output

    xQAMQadrature Amplitude Modulation,

    x= number of modulation combinations

  • 14/34 For internal use

    2017 Nokia All rights reserved.

    5G Evolution Path

    600 MbpsIoTPublic Safety

    4.5G

    1 Gbps LTEUnlicensed

    4.5GPro

    4.9GLow latencyBeamformingCloud radio

    5G

    10 Gbps / 1 ms

    5G

    Today

    2017+

    2018+

    2019+

  • 15

    LTE Spectral Efficiency in Live NetworksLarge Number of Live Nokia Networks

    We estimate the spectral efficiency

    during busy hour in the busy areas

    from >80 live networks from the

    carried traffic per cell with a few

    assumptions

    20% of BTS makes 50% of traffic

    Busy hour is 7% of daily traffic

    Average busy hour load is 70% of

    the maximum

    No voice impact considered

    Average LTE bandwidth 15 MHz

    1.7

    1.2

    0.4

    2.56

    1.90

    0.53

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    Top Top-10% Median

    bps/Hz/cell

    HSPA LTE

    Datarate (Bits/s)

    Bandwidth (Hz)Spectral Efficiency =

  • 16 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    LTE-Advanced Pro boosts performance to extremes10x Performance for new services

    LTE = Releases 8-9

    LTE-Advanced = Releases 10-12

    LTE-Advanced Pro = Release 13 and beyond

    150 Mbps

    10 ms latency

    10x data rate (32 CAs)

    10x battery life

    10x lower latency (2&7 Symb.)

    10x larger coverage (NB-IoT)

    - Massive IoT

    - Massive MIMO

    - Critical communications:

    public safety, intelligent

    traffic systems

    LTE Release 8 LTE Advanced Pro

    10x lower IoT cost

    10x more network capacity

    New service capabilities

  • 17 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    LTE-Advanced Pro Minimizes LatencyBelow 1 ms One-way Delay and Below 2 ms Round Trip Time

    14 symbol TTI

    7 symbol TTI

    2 symbol TTI

    1 ms

    0.14 ms

    10-20 ms

    5-10 ms

  • 18 Nokia 2015

    .The permission to use the 3GPP 5G logo does not involve or imply any

    certification by the Partners in 3GPP or the 3GPP community that the products or

    services of manufacturers or service providers actually comply with the 3GPP

    specifications. It is intended simply and only to provide a basis of reference for users,

    network operators and other manufacturers and service providers.

    http://www.3gpp.org/about-3gpp/1824-logo_5g

  • 19 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

  • 20 Nokia 2017

    New use case opportunities extremely diverse requirements

    Smart factories1 PB/day

    Devices1.5 GB/day

    Autonomous driving 1ms latency

    Billions of sensors connected

    Design and architecture principles:flexible | scalable | automated | cloud native software centric | dynamic network slicing

    100 Mb/swhenever needed

    10,000x more traffic

  • 21 Nokia 2017

    5G early market use cases

    Public

    Structural 5G deployment area

    5G use case

    In-vehicle infotainment

    Truck platooningHome

    HotspotsHealthcare

    Drones

    Highwayuse cases

    Dedicateduse cases

    Dense city areause cases

    Public transportuse cases

    8K video streaming

    Hotspots

    EventsIndustry

    VR/AR

  • 22 Nokia Solutions and Networks 2014

    Nokias 5G market view and derived engagement

    20202018 2019 202120172016

    5G Fixed Wireless

    High capacity and coverage (3-6 GHz)

    Ultra High Capacity (>6 GHz)

    We will build solutions for all 3 Extreme Broadband markets

    Fixed Wireless High Capacity & coverage

    Machine communication

    Extension of fiber access cm/mmWave e.g. 1GHz BW Line of Sight (LOS)

    Megacity capacity densification 3 to 6GHz ~100MHz BW Dense urban grid

    Ultra High Capacity

    Ultra dense use cases cm/mmWave e.g. 1 GHz

    BW

    short range, LOS preferable

    Markets to develop from 2022

    need for coverage layer and

    cheap devices

    Verticals not expected to be early

    adopters for 5G (low expertise)

  • 23

    #2 Massive MIMO