University of Minnesota J THE GLOBAL CRISIS OF URBAN u l … · Knight Frank (2016) Wealth report....
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THE GLOBAL CRISIS OF URBAN HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Edward Goetz University of Minnesota I A C P B e i j i n g 2 J u l y 2 0 1 6
Transcript of University of Minnesota J THE GLOBAL CRISIS OF URBAN u l … · Knight Frank (2016) Wealth report....
THE GLOBAL CRISIS OF URBAN HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Edward GoetzUniversity of Minnesota
IACP
Beijing
2
July
2016
The unaffordable city
https://nextcity.org/features/view/sao-paulo-housing-crisis-master-plan-zeis-haddad-habitat-iii
From McKinsey Global Institute, Blueprint for addressing the global affordable housing challenge, 2014.
A sampling of (Un)affordability rankings
Monthly rents £
1 Monaco 5931
2 London 5683
3 Bermuda 4182
4 New York 4057
5 Hong Kong 4013
6 Tokyo 3856
7 Paris 3787
8 Moscow 3749
9 Singapore 3159
10 Geneva 3050
A sampling of (Un)affordability rankings
Monthly rents £
What US$1m will buy
Square meters
1 Monaco 5931 Monaco 15
2 London 5683 Hong Kong 20
3 Bermuda 4182 London 22
4 New York 4057 New York 27
5 Hong Kong 4013 Geneva 40
6 Tokyo 3856 Sydney 40
7 Paris 3787 Singapore 42
8 Moscow 3749 Shanghai 48
9 Singapore 3159 Paris 57
10 Geneva 3050 Beijing 58
A sampling of (Un)affordability rankings
Monthly rents £
What US$1m will buy
Square meters
Median Multiple
Med price / med inc.
1 Monaco 5931 Monaco 15 Hong Kong 19.0
2 London 5683 Hong Kong 20 Sydney 12.2
3 Bermuda 4182 London 22 Vancouver 10.8
4 New York 4057 New York 27 Melbourne 9.7
5 Hong Kong 4013 Geneva 40 San Jose 9.7
6 Tokyo 3856 Sydney 40 Auckland 9.7
7 Paris 3787 Singapore 42 San Francisco 9.4
8 Moscow 3749 Shanghai 48 London 8.5
9 Singapore 3159 Paris 57 San Diego 8.1
10 Geneva 3050 Beijing 58 Los Angeles 8.1
Rise in housing prices variable across cities
Ghost cities
Demolition of unused apartment building in Xi’an, November 2015
http://en.people.cn/n/2015/1116/c90000-8977146.html. CRI on-line
from, Housing for Inclusive Cities: The Economic Impact of High Housing Costs, Global Cities Business Alliance
“The great cities are becoming elite citadels…Global cities are turning into vast gated communities where the one percent reproduces itself.”
Simon Kuper, Financial Times (2013)
Nomenclature of extreme wealth
“alpha territories” Global power brokers
Voices of authority
Business class
Serious money
One Hyde Park, London
Kensington Palace Gardens
15 Central Park West
Jakarta
Nomenclature of extreme wealth
“alpha territories” Global power brokers (GPB)
Voices of authority (VA)
Business class (BC)
Serious money (SM)
Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) (net worth > US$30 million, excluding primary residence)
Nomenclature of extreme wealth
“alpha territories” Global power brokers (GPB)
Voices of authority (VA)
Business class (BC)
Serious money (SM)
Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) (net worth > US$30 million, excluding primary residence)
High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) ( > US$1 million investible assets)
Nomenclature of extreme wealth
“alpha territories” Global power brokers (GPB)
Voices of authority (VA)
Business class (BC)
Serious money (SM)
Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) (net worth > US$30 million, excluding primary residence)
High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) ( > US$1 million investible assets)
61%
Nomenclature of extreme wealth
“alpha territories” Global power brokers (GPB)
Voices of authority (VA)
Business class (BC)
Serious money (SM)
Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) (net worth > US$30 million, excluding primary residence)
High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) ( > US$1 million investible assets) 70%
61%
Beijing
Shanghai
Rate of growth of UHNWIs in China greater than global average
Rank City # of UHNWIs
1 New York 5600
2 London 4905
3 Moscow 3457
4 Los Angeles 2820
5 Singapore 2360
6 Beijing 2073
7 Tokyo 2035
8 Chicago 2030
9 Zurich 1754
10 Seoul 1750
Where UHNWIs live, 2016
Housing habits of the super rich Residential property is roughly 30% of wealth
Average 3.7 homes
“housing as such an incidental adornment of wealth that it is barely or never lived in…” (Atkinson, Burrows, &
Rhodes, 2016)
“property is not just a place to live”
Urban
Pay in cash
Loss of housing stock to short term rentals
Airbnb
San Francisco – up to 40% of rentals taken off the market for short term rental
Paris – 20,000 to 40,000 listings
Loss of housing due to demolition & redevelopment
Loss of housing due to demolition & redevelopment
Expensive v. expansive cities
San Francisco
Tokyo
Social housing in the 1st arrondisement
(Photo: Getty Images)
Preservation of “naturally occurring affordable housing”
http://neworleans.indymedia.org/news/2006/06/7855.php
Thank you
Resources Global Cities Business Alliance (2016) Housing for inclusive cities:
The economic impact of high housing costs.
Hay & Beaverstock (2016) Handbook on wealth & the super rich.
Knight Frank (2016) Wealth report.
Knight Frank (2014) Wealth report.
LaVecchia and Mitchell (2016) How rising commercial rents are threatening independent businesses, and what cities are doing about it.
McKinsey Global Institute (2014) A blueprint for addressing the global affordable housing challenge.
Webber & Burroughs (2015) “Life in an alpha territory” Urban Studies
From, Knight Frank, Wealth Report, 2014.
Sao Paulo. https://nextcity.org/features/view/sao-paulo-housing-crisis-master-plan-zeis-haddad-habitat-iii
