University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011.

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University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011

Transcript of University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011.

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University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011

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50% increase in population by 2050

70% increase in food demand by 2050

40% increase in energy demand by 2030The challenge is not simply meeting increased

demand, but doing so sustainably.

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Slide 5

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(EPA, 2010)

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(EIA, 2010)

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Emerging policy innovationsSynergies with poverty

alleviationPerhaps better to ask “How?”

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1. How much land is available?2. What are the life-cycle impacts?3. What is bioenergy precarious role in

the climate-energy nexus?

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17001710

17201) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE)

2) Exclude agriculture-to-forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1)

3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA)

4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands.

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13

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14(Campbell et al., ES&T, 2008)

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Algae bioenergy sustainability (Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011) Wastewater co-benefits Efficient harvesting with electrocoagulation and electrofloculation

(Trent, 2010)

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Electrocoagulation / Electroflocculation

Surface charge analysis of algae

(Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011)

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A global resource… Abandoned Agriculture

Regional opportunities… Mountaintop Mining

No land use… Offshore Algae Not commercially viable yet Electrochemical approach is emerging

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Slide 20

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?

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(Campbell et al., Science, 2009)

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0

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a) Ethanol b) Bioelectricity

(Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, 2009)23

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(Campbell, Sloan, Snyder, et al., In Prep)

2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

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Volatility = 15% Volatility = 30%

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(DOE, 2009)

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Converting Brazilian residue to electricity has greater GHG benefits than conversion to ethanol

Residue-based ethanol has small impact on US energy security but electricity would have massive impact on Brazilian energy security

(Campbell & Block, ES&T, 2010)

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(Campbell et al., In Prep)

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(McKinsey, 2007)

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(Casillas and Kammen, Science, 2010)

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(McKuin & Campbell, In Prep)

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(Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004)

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Role in stratosphere (Crutzen, 1976)A novel tracer of carbon

sequestration?

CO2 COS

Fig. 1. The dominant land fluxes of CO2 are photosynthesis and respiration while OCS uptake is influenced by a process linked to photosynthesis.

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(Campbell et al., Science, 2008)

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1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000350

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S (ppt)

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a) GPP Growth b) GPP Fixed

(Campbell et al., In Prep)

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Rapid growth with or without sustainability basis.

Resources available for a multi-disciplinary approach to bioenergy research and education.

Many opportunities for engaging with industry, policy, and mass media.

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NSF/CAREER (Env’l Sustainability Program #0955141)

DOE/Institute for Climatic Change (#050516Z30)

Stanford/Carnegie: Chris Field, Joe Berry, David Lobell

Iowa: Jerry Schnoor, Greg Carmichael

NASA: Stephanie Vay, Randy Kawa

Wonderful Students! Andrew Mckuin, Brandi McKuin, Chi-Chung Tsao, Patrick Wiley, Xianyu Yang

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Question: What are the life-cycle GHG emissions of ethanol (g CO2e MJ-1)?

Objective: Team presentations in 30 min (~4 slides)

Materials: http://faculty.ucmerced.edu/ecampbell3/ucsc/

Approach: Modify a widely referenced LCA model (Farrell et al., Science, 2006) with updated information Team 1: Crutzen et al. (N2O) Team 2: Plevin et al. (Feedstock location) Team 3: Searchinger et al. (Indirect land-use) Team 4: Fargione et al. (Direct land-use)

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209.631.9312 | [email protected]

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(Tilman , 2009)

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(Tilman, 2009)

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(Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007)

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(Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007)

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(RAEL)

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MORTALITY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONMORTALITY HOSPITAL ADMISSION

(Campbell, et al., In Preparation)

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(Campbell et al., In Preparation)

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(Fox & Campbell, ES&T, 2010)