University of Nigeria Annastasia... · 2015-09-04 · application of quantitative methods in...
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University of Nigeria Research Publications
UMENWALIRI, Annastasia
Aut
hor
PG/MBA/97/20634
Title
Application of Quantitative Methods in Corporate Decision
Making in Premier Breweries Plc. Onitsha
Facu
lty
Business Administration
Dep
artm
ent
Management
Dat
e
November, 1998
Sign
atur
e
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A P P L I C A T I O N OF Q U A N T I T A T I V E METHODS
IN CORPORATE DECISION MAKING IN
PREMIER B R E W E R I E S , P L C , O N I T S H A .
A P R O J E C T SUBMITTED
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
FACULTY OF B U S I N E S S A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
U N I V E R S I T Y OF N I G E R I A , NSUKKA
ENUGU CAMPUS.
I N P A R T I A L F U L F I L M E N T OF THE ACADEMIC
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTERS
I N B U S I N E S S A D M I N I S T R A T I O N ( M B A ) , I N
MANAGEMENT
(FACULTY OF' B U S I N E S S A D I ( I . N I S I R ~ T I ~ N )
UMENWALIRI , A N N A S T A S I A
~ ~ / ~ ~ ~ / 9 7 / 2 0 6 3 4
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T I T L E AGE
APpLICATXON OF QUANTXTATXVE METHODS
I N CORPORATE D E C I S I O N MAKING I N
PREMIER BREWERIES, PLC O N I T S H A .
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C E R T I F I C A T I O N
UMENWALIRI, ANNASTASIA, a p o s t g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t o f
t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f Management i n t h e F a c u l t y of B u s i n e s s
A d m i n i s t r a t i o n with R e g i s t r a t i o n Number p G / ~ B ~ / 9 7 / 2 0 6 3 4
h a s s a t i s f a c t o r i l y c o m p l e t e d t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r c o u r s e
and r e s e a r c h wcrk f o r t h e M a s t e r s i n B u s i n e s s
A d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n Management,
The work embodied i n t h i s p r o j e c t is o r i g i n a l a n d
h a s n o t b e e n s u b m i t t e d i n p a r t o r f u l l f o r a n y o t h e r
D e g r e e o r Diploma of t h i s o r a n y o t h e r u n i v e r s i t y .
................ . . .; .&/ D R E. EWURUM PROJECT SUPERVISOR
CHIEF J O H N EZE H. 0 . D , , MANAGEMENT
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D E D I C A T I O N
T h i s p i e c e of work i s d e d i c a t e d t o t h e
Lord Alinighty and to t h e Unenwal i r i f a m i l y .
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A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T
I am g r a t e f u l t o t h e Lord Almighty who made my
jou rney p o s s i b l e f rom t h e womb, t o t h i s s i n f u l wor ld .
I t ' s a l s o t h e same u n c h a n g e a b l e Lord who made t h i s p i e c e
of work p o s s i b l e t o comple t ion .
My immeasu rab le t h a n k s t o my b r o t h e r s ( I . G, Cy,
F D and Tony) , my s i s te r (Mary Mar tha ( M K S ) ) , and my
l o v e l y and c a r i n g mother (Anecherenwa ( M r s ) ) , f o r t h e i r
m o r a l , f i n a n c i a l and o t h e r s u p p o r t i v e a i d s t o s e e c o t h e
c o m p l e t i o n of t h i s p i e c e of work s t a r t i n g from t h e
c o n c e p t i o n . It i s o n l y God who w i l l r eward you immensely.
S p e c i a l t h a n k s t o my s u p e r v i s o r , D r . U . J, E, Ewurum
who t o o k h i s t i m e t o r e a d e v e r y b i t of t h i s p i e c e of work,
a l s o f o r h i s encouragement and d i r e c t i v e s t owards t h e
s u c c e s s of t h i s r e s e a r c h work, I am i n d e b t e d t o you,
I have no t f o r g o t t e n t h e e t f o r t s of Chief J o h n Eze,
t h e H.O.D., Management cowards t n e s u c ~ e s s of C h e
programme, Tne e f f o r t s a r e r e c o g n i s e d ,
S p e c i a l tk,anks t o Mrs Modebe, t h e PG Co-o rd ina to r f o r
h e r u n c o u n t a b l e h e l p and h e r m o t h e r l y a d v i c e t o me.
God b l e s s you, Amen,
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My s i n c e r e g r a t i t u d e t o t h e f o l l o w i n g p e r s o n s :
Chief Uche Akam (GOSTAK), p r o f e s s o r Greg Iwu (Managing
D i r e c t o r ) , N.C.C. Ch ie f I k e Ndeokwulu (Ogbuzor I of Uga ) ,
and Ch ie f V. A. Ob iozo r (DGM F i n a n c e ) , N i g e r i a n Coa l
C o r p o r a t i o n (NCC) f o r t h e i r s p e c i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o w a r d s
t h e r e a l i t y o f t h i s p i e c e of work.
I am g r a t e f u l a l s o t o Engr. James O k p a l a j i f o r h i s
u n i q u e c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o w a r d s t h e s u c c e s s of t h i s programme.
The l a s t b u t n o t t h e l e a s t , my s p e c i a l t h a n k s t o my
s i n c e r e f r i e n d s : Mrs Chinwe Obiekwe and M i s s E u c h a r i a
Umenze f o r t h e i r encouragement and c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o w a r d s
t h e c o m p l e t i o n of t h i s p i e c e of work.
May t h e wounded m e s s i a h p r o v i d e , h e a l and p r o t e c t
you a l l . Amen.
UMENWALIRI, ANNASTASIA.
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ABSTRACT
T h e r e s e a r c h work was d o n e o n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of
p u a n t i t a t i v e Method i n c o r p o r a t e D e c i a i o c Making i n
P r e m i e r Breweries, p l c , O n i t a h a . The i d e a was t o know
w h e t h e r q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s l e a d t o q u a l i t y d e c i s i o n s o r
n o t i n c o r p o r a t e d e c i a i o n making ; a l a o t o a s c e r t a i n w h e t h e r
b e n e f i t s a r e d e r i v a b l e f r o m t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of q u a n t i t a t i v e
m e t h o d s f o r d e c i s i o n making r e d u c e s i n d i v i d u a l i n 1 t i a t i v e ,
T h r e e h y p o t h e s e s were f o r m u l a t e d a n d w e r e t e e t e d i n t h e
C o u r s e of t h e S t u d y u s i n g t h e C h i - s q u a r e d i s t r i b u t i o n .
Q u e s t i o n n a i r e was u s e d t o c o l l e c t d a t a ,
The S t u d y r e v e a l e d a b o u t t h r e e f a c t o r s m i l i t a t i n g
a g a i n s t t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of q u a n t i t a t i v e Mothoda i n c o r p o r a t e
d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i n P r e m i e r B r e w e r i e s , p l c , O n i t s h a , s u c h a s
l a c k of e q u i p m e n t ; l a c k of a d e q u a t e t r a i n i n g ; and l a c k of
e n c o u r a g e m e n t f r o m t h e S u p e r i o r t h r o u g h d e l e g a t i o n of
a u t h o r i t y ,
The r e s e d r c h work a l s o r e v e a l e d t h a t Q u a n t i t a t i v e
m e t h o d s a i d d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s a a n d l e a d t o q u a l i t y
d e c i s i o n s i n - t h e o r g a n i a a t i o n ,
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v i i ,
I t is recommended t h a t Management a h o u l d make enough
f u n d s a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e p r o c u r e m e n t of e q u i p g e n t s u c h a s
c o m p u t e r a n d p l o t t e r s , I t i a a l s o recommended t h a t
t r a i n i n g programme8 b e a r r a n g e d f o r t h e w o r k e r a on a
r e g u l a r b a s i a . F u t h e r m o r e , M a n a g e r s s h o u l d n o t s e e
d e l e g a t i o n of a u t h o r 1 t y and power ( r e a p o n e i b i l i t y ) t o t h e
a u b o r d i n a t o s a s a t h r e a t t o t h e i r p o s i t i o n r a t h e r t h e y
a h o u l d s ee i t a s a n i m p o r t a n t m a n a g e r i a l p r a c t i c e w h i c h
i m p r o v e s j o b q u a l i t y and j o b s a t i s f a c t i o n ,
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v i i i
LIST OF TABLES
PAGE
T a b l e 3.1 p r o p o r t i o n of t h e s e n i o r
S t a f f i n e a c h Depar tment
t o t h e T o t a l P o p u l a t i o n , 7 9 ........ T a b l e 3.2 P r o p o r t i o n of t h e Res-
pondent S e l e c t e d f rom Each
Depar tment t o t h e T o t a l
Sample S i z e .........
C o n t i n g e n c y T a b l e $ o r t h e
H y p o t h e s i s One .......o. 83
C o n t i n g e n c y T a b l e f o r t h e
H y p o t h e s i s Two ......... 86
C o n t i n g e n c y T a b l e f o r t h e
H y p o t h e s i s Three . ......... 89
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TABLL OF CONTENTS
PAGE
T I T L E PAGE
C E ~ T l F I C A T l O N
DEOlCATIGN
A C K N O J L E D G E M E Y T
ABSTRACT
L l 5 T OF T A b L E S
TABLE OF CO.YTENTS
1
ii
iii
i v
v
v ii!i
ix .
CHAPTER O g E : llVTHODUCTlON ........ 1
1.4 B a c k g r o u n d of t h e S t u d y ........ 1
1.2 S t a t e m e n t o f t h e p r o b l e m ........ 5
1.3 O b j e c t i v e o f t h e s t u d y ........ 7
1.4 H y p o t h e s e s ........ 8
1.5 S i g i k i f i c a n c e o f t h e S t u d y ........ 9
R e f e r e n c e s ........ 11
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ........ 1 2
2 . 1 m e a n i n g a f D e c i s i o n M a k i n g ........ 1 2
2 . 1 . 1 D e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s ........ 1 4
2 .2 Q u a n t i t a t i v e M e t h o d s D e f i n e d ........ 2 3
........ 2.3 T y p e s o f Q u a n t i t a t i v e ~ e t h o d s 2 0
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P r o b a b i l i t y T h e o r y ........ L i n e a r programming Models ....... I n v e n t o r y Models ........ Qus . l ing ~ o d e l s
Network A n a l y s i s
Garne Theo ry ........ The P i l l a r s o f O p e r a t i o n s
R e s e a r c h ........ The Sys tem O r i e n t a t i o n ........ I n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y Teamwork ...... The S c i e n t i f i c Method ........ The U s e o f Mode ls ........ A r e a s o f A p p l i c a t i o n o f Q u a n t i t a t i v e Methods ........
........ T h e o r i t i c a l F o u n d a t i o n
Summary o f L i t e r a t u r e Review ........ Ref l2rences ........
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH DESIGN d.
AND METHODOLOGY ....on..
3.1 R e s e a r c h D e s i g n ........ 3.2 R e s e a r c h I n s t r u m e n t s ........
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3.3 Sample
3.3.1 population
3.3.2 Sample Size
3 .4. . 1nst:rument at ion
3.4A Collection of Data
3.5 Analysis of Data (Method)
3.6 Scope of the Study
3.7 Limitation of the Study
References
CHAPTER FOUR: DATA PRESENTATION AYD ANALYSIS OF FINDING
4 . 0 Introduction ........ 9 1
4 . 1 Testing of Hypothesis One ........ 9 1
4 .2 Hypothesis Two ........ 94
4 .3 Hypothesis Three ........ 9 7
4.4 Conclusions ........ 1 0 1
CHAPTER FIVE: . SUMMARY OF FINDINGS. RECOMMENDATIONS AND
CONCLUSIONS ........ 1 0 2
5 .0 Introduction ........ 1 0 2
5 . 1 Summary of Findings ......... 1 0 2
5.2 Recommendations ........ 1 0 4
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x i i
5 . 3 C o n c l u s i o n ........ 107
5 . 4 S u g g e s t e d A r e a s f o r F u r t h e r R e s e a r c h ........ 109
B i b l i o g r a p h y ........ 110
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of t h e S t u d y
Management i s conce rned w i t h t h e u t i l i z a t i o n and
c o m b i n a t i o n of o r g a n i s a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s t o a c h i e v e
g o a l s , I n a t t e m p t i n g t o f u l f i l t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s ,
managers c a r r y o u t c e r t a i n f u n c t i o n s which have been
known a s management f u n c t i o n s , The f u n c t i o n s a r e
c l a s s i f i e d a s p l a n n i n g , o r q a n i s i n g , d i r e c t i n g and
c o n t r o l l i n g , I n pe r fo rming t h e s e f u n c t i o n s , managers
i r r e s p e c t i v e of t h e i r l e v e l s i n o r q a n i s a t i o n s , make
d e c i s i o n .
D e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s i s n o r m a l l y a c t i v a t e d
when t h e manager p e r c e i v e s a problem t o be s o l v e d ,
H e f o r m u l a t e s an o b j e c t i v e , r e c o g n i s e s t h e c o n s t r a i n t s
t h a t b e a r on t h e problem, a n a l y s e s t h e i m p a c t s of t h e s e
v a r i a b l e s , e v a l u a t e s t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s and
c h o o s e s t h e b e s t c a u r s e of a c t i o n which i s t h e a l t e r n a -
t i v e t h a t i s most l i k e l y t o y i e l d t h e o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n
t o t h e problem,
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Today, Managers a r e ope ra t ing i n a dynamic
environment and they must be acquainted wi th a
p l u r a l i t y of economic f a c t o r s t h a t i n f luence t h e
cond i t i ons under which they must a c t . T h e s t r u c t u r e
of an i n d u s t r y determines what d e c i s i o n s w i l l be made
i n terms of ou tpu t and p r i ce . Regardlesr o f t h e
market s t r u c t u r e , i t i s t h e i nhe ren t d e s i r e of
management t o maximise p r o f i t s . ~ l l p o l i c i e s must
be t a i l o r e d towards a l e a s t - c o s t combination of t h e
f a c t o r s of production.
The e s s e n t i a l problem i s a s c e r t a i n i n g the means
management s h a l l choose t o o b t a i n t h e des i r ed end of
maximising p r o f i t s i n t h e long run. I t i.s p e r t i n e n t
t o s t r e s s t h e re levance of up-to-date informat ion i n
determining t h e c u r r e n t understanding of f a c t s , Fac t8
i n d i c a t e problems; problems r e q u i r e s o l u t i o n s
( G.M. Roccafer re ra 1967:2). The s c i e n t i f i c approach
involves determining f a c t s through obse rva t ion of
even t s ( t h i n g s ) and v e r i f y i n g t h e accurancy of t h e s e
f a c t s through cont inued observa t ion . The e s s e n t i a l
f e a t u r e of s c i ence i s t h a t knowledge has been
discovered and sys temat i sed through t h e a p p l i c a t i o n
of s c i e n t i f i c methods ( H , Koontz e t a 1 1980:10).
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Q u a n t i t a t i v e me thods b e i n g t o o l s of s y s t e m a t i c ,
l o g i c a l and m a t h e m a t i c a l a n a l y s i s and s y n t h e s i s
o f t e n i n v o l v e e x t e n s i w e m a t h e m a t i c a l m a n i p u l a t i o n s .
S i n c e c o m p u t e r s came i n t o f u l l a p p l i c a t i o n i n t h e
1 9 4 0 s , t h e y have b e e n e x t e n s i v e l y u sed i n o r g a n i s a t i o n s
a s i n v a l u a b l e t o o l s i n d e c i s i o n making, I n s t r e s s i n g
t h e n e e d f o r c o m p u t e r s , digwe we 1992:19) o p i n e d t h a t a
h i g h l e v e l of compu te r l i t e r a c y was a p r e - r e q u i s i t e
f o r e conomic deve lopmen t , H e s t r e s s e d t h a t N i g e r i a
Government needed t o improve t h e n a t i o n ' s commun ica t i on
f a c i l i t i e s t o i n c r e a s e t h e demand f o r c o m p u t e r s i n t h e
c o u n t r y ,
A s u r v e y c a r r i e d o u t by ( E j i o f o r 1987:137) showed
t h a t t h o u g h management e d u c a t o r s were awa re o f t h e
v a s t p o t e n t i a l of t h e c o m p u t e r , 2 4 o u t of 28 of t h e
d e p a r t m e n t s wh ich r e s p o n d e d n e v e r made u s e o f t h e
d e p a r t m e n t / f a c u l t y compu te r c e n t r e i n t h e p a s t y e a r .
The s u r v e y a l s o showed t h a t a l l t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s which
d i d n o t u s e t h e compu te r i n d i c a t e d t h a t compu t ing
f a c i l i t i e s were n o t a v a i l a b l e d u e t o l a c k o f f u n d s ,
Owing t o ' t h i s d e a r t h o f c o m p u t e r s i r r o u r b u s i n e s s
s c h o o l s , mos t b u s i n e s s g r a d u a t e s a re u n a b l e t o h a n d l e
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c o m p u t e r s , T h i s h a m p e r s t h e f u l l r e a l i s a t i o n of t h e
v a s t p o t e n t i a l s of t h e c o m p u t e r e s p e c i a l l y as i t
a f f e c t s t h e d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s ,
S e q u a l t o t h i s a p p a r e n t w i d e s p r e a d c o m p u t e r
i l l i t e r a c y , m o s t o r g a n i s a t i o n s now s p o n s o r t h e i r
e m p l o y e e s o n c o m p u t e r t r a i n i n g programmes b o t h
l o c a l l y a n d o v e r s e a s , T h e s e programmes a r e a imed a t
making t h e w o r k e r s k n o w l e d g e a b l e e n o u g n i n t h e
utilization of t h e v a r i o u s u s e s o f t h e computer,
T h o s e o r g a n i s a t i o n s t h a ~ a r e y e t t o c o m p u t e r i s e
t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s a t e making e r r o r t t o d o so.
Quantitative m e t h o d s a r e v e r y i m p o r t a n t t o o l s
i n d e c i s i o n making. They c a n b e o f g r e a t h e l p i n
t h e t w o m i d d l e s t a g e s o f d e c i s i o n making ; a n a l y s i n g
t h e p r o b l e m ; a n d d e v e l o p i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s , They c a n
f i n d a n d b r i n g o u t t h e u n d e r l y i n g p a t t e r n s i n t h e
b a h a v i o u r of t h e b u s i n e s s a n d i n i t s e n v i r o n m e n t ,
i n c l u d i n g t h o s e t h a t h a v e h i t h e r t o l a i n beyond t h e
m a n a g e r ' s f i e l d of v i s i o n o r r a n g e of i m a g i n a t i o n
( F s W , T a y l o r 1910:140), A m a n u f a c t u r i n g o u t f i t l i k e
p r e m i e r Breweries , PLC, o n i t s h a i s a l w a y s f a c e d w i t h
p r o b l e m s t h a t c o u l d b e b e t t e r a n a l y s e d u s i n g q u a n t i -
t a t i v e m e t h o d s , S u c h p r o b l e m s c o u l d a r i s e f r o m
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i n v e n t o r y management, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , d i s t r i b u t i o n
and j o b a s s i g n m e n t t o men t ion b u t a few. When t h e
b e s t s o l u t i o n t o a problem h a s been c h o s e n , i t means
t h a . t t h e problem h a s been p e r f e c t l y s o l v e d and t h i s
i s t h e main t h r u s t of q u a ~ l t i t a t i v e methods.
1.2 S t a t e m e n t of The problem
1. p r e m i e r ' B r e w e r i e s , p l c , O n i t s h a a s a b u s i n e s s
o r g a n i s a t i o n i s n o t devo id of problems. These
p rob lems impinge on t h e smooth and e f f c i e n t
r u n n i n g of t h e f i r m . The company i s p l agued
w i t h t h e problem of o l d and o b s o l e t e equipment
i n d i r e need of r e p l a c e m e n t . Given t h e s p a t e of
dynamism i n t e c h n o l o g y t o d a y , some of t h e
equipment i n s t a l l e d when t h e p l a n t was b u i l t i n
1978 c a n no l o n g e r compete w i t h t h e e f f i c i e n c y
of t h e more modern machines i n u s e t oday . F o r
i n s t a n c e , t h e r e s e a r c h and deve lopment d e p a r t m e n t
s t i l l u s e s weighing b a l a n c e s f o r measu r ing t h e
w e i g h t of o b j e c t s w h i l e more s o p h i s t i c a t e d
e l e c t r o n i c we igh ing i n s t r u m e n t s w i t h v e r y h i g h
p r e c i s i o n a r e a v a i l a b l e now.
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2 , A n o t h e r p r o b l e m i s t h a t o f t r a n s p o r t ,
d i s t r i b u t i o n of f i n i s h e d g o o d s ( p r o d u c t s )
and t h e p r o c u r e m e n t of raw m a t e r i a l s . The
e s t a b l i s h m e n t h a s a l o t o f o l d and b r o k e n - down v e h i c l e s w h i c h a t e n o l o n g e r a d e q u a t e
f o r t h e e x t e n s i v e s e r v i c e s r e q u i r e d of t h e m .
Some o f t h e v e h i c l e s u s e d a s s t a f f b u s e s h a v e
p a c k e d up l e a v i n g t h e w o r k e r s i n a s e r i o u s
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n h a r d s h i p , The n a t u r e of t h e
b u s i n e s s demands t i m e l y and e f f i c i e n t l y
d e l i v e r y o f t h e p r o d u c t s t o t h e c u s t o m e r s
( c o n s u m e r s ) a n d t h i s i s n o l o n g e r r e a l i s t i c
w i t h t h e p o o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m .
3 , The i n v e n t o r y management of t h e company i s n o t
p r o p e r l y o r g a n i s e d . T h i s was e v i d e n t i n t h e
number of s t o c k c a r d s t h a t s h o u l d be u p - d a t e d .
W i t h o u t p r o p e r d o c u m e n t a t i o n a n d i n f o r m a t i o n ,
i n v e n t o r y c o n t r o l t e c h n i q u e s c a n n o t be w e l l
a p p l i e d . Lack of o p e r a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h h a 6 b e e n
i d e n t i f i e d by management e x p e r t s i n N i g e r i a as
o n e of t h e b a s i c m a n a g e r i a l p r o b l e m s i n
d e v e l o p i n g e c o n o m i e s .
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T h e s e p r o b l e m s o b s e r v e d f r o m a b i r d ' s e y e - b a l l
v i e w , p r o m p t e d t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o u n d e r t a k e t h i s
s t u d y o n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f Q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n
c o r p o r a t e d e c i s i o n making i n p r e m i e r B r e w e r i e s , p l c ,
O n i t s h a .
O b j e c t i v e s Of The S t u d y
1, To d e t e r m i n e t h e l e v e l of a p p l i c a t i o n of
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n d e c i s i o n making w i t h
p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o p r e m i e r B r i w e r i e s , p l c ,
O n i t s h a .
2. The o b j e c t i v e i s a l s o t o know t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n c o r p o r a t e d e c i s i o n
making i n p r e m i e r Breweries, p l c .
3. To d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h q u a n t i t a t i v e
m e t h o d s a r e a p p l i e d i n d e c i s i o n making i n
p r e m i e r Breweries, p l c .
4. To i d e n t i f y t h e f a c t o r s m i l i t a t i n g a g a i n s t t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n of Q u a n t i t a t i v e me thods .
5. To v e r i f y w h e t h e r t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of q u a n t i t a t i v e
m e t h o d s makes d e c i s i o n making e a s i e r .
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1.4 ~ y p o t h e s e s
The f o l l o w i n g h y p o t h e s e s a r e f o r m u l a t e d t o
g u i d e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n .
1. N u l l h y p o t h e s i s ( H o ) : T h e r e i s n o r e l a t i o n s h i p
b e t w e e n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s
a n d t h e q u a l i t y of d e c i s i o n s i n c o r p o r a t e
d e c i s i o n making ,
A l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s ( H i ) : T h e r e i s
r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e u t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s and t h e q u a l i t y o f
d e c i s i o n s i n c o r p o r a t e d e c i s i o n making.
2. N u l l h y p o t h e s i s ( H O ) : The b e n e f i t s o f
o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h a r e n o t g r e a t e r t h a n
t h e c o s t s .
A l t e r n a t i v e H y p o t h e s i s ( H i ) : The benefits
of o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h a r e g r e a t e r t h a n t h e
c o s t s .
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3 . N u l l h y p o t h e s i s ( H o ) : R e l i a n c e on t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s f o r
d e c i s i m mak ing d o e s n o t r e d u c e i n d i v i d u a l
i n i t i a t i v e .
A 1 t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s ( H i ) : R e 1 i . a n c e o n
t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s f o r
d e c i s i o n mak ing r e d u c e s i n d i v i d u a l i n i t i a t i v e .
1 . 5 S i g n i f i c a n c e Of The S t u d y
T h e p r o j e c t w o u l d b e of s i g n i f i c a n c e t o p r e m i e r
B r e w e r i e s , P l c , O n i t s h a , w h e r e t h e s t u d y was c a r r i e d
o u t . I t w o u l d a s s i t t t h e managemen t i n i r i c o r p o r a t i n g
v a r i o u s m o d e l s o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n t o i t s
d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s . I t w o u l d a l s o b e s i q n i f i c d n t
t o t h e managemen t of o t h e r o r g a n i s a t i o n s t h a t o p e r a t e
i n a s i m i l a r e n v i r o n m e n t .
M o r e s o , q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s a r e t o o l s of d e c i s i o n
mak ing a n d t h e r e f o r e a r e p r o b l e m s o l v i n g , , t h e s t u d y
w i l l b e v e k y s i g n i f i c a n t t o c o n s u l t a n c y f i r m s who a r e
a l w a y s p o s e d w i t h t h e p r o b l e m o f g i v i n g a d v i c e o n how
t o s o l v e s e v e r a l m a n a g e r i a l p r o b l e n ~ s .
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The s t u d y would b e s i g n i f i c a n t t o t h e r e s e a r c h e r
and o t h e r r e s e a r c h s t u d e n t s who m i g h t d e c i d e t o d e l v e
i n t o a s i m i l a r a r e a of s t u d y .
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REFERENCES
G. M. R o c c a f e r r e r a , I n t r o d u c t i o n t o L i n e a r Programming p r o c e s s , ( O h i o ; S o u t h W e s t e r n p u b l i s h i n g Co. 1 9 0 7 ) . p. 2 ,
H. K o o n t z e t a l , Management , ( J a p a n , McGraw H a l l I n t e r n a t i o n a l Book Company, 1 9 8 0 ) P . 1 0 ,
P. F. D r u c k e r , The P r a c t i c e o f Management ( L o n d o n , Heinemam L t d , 1 9 7 9 ) , p , 360.
B u s i n e s s T i m e s , S e p t e m b e r 1 4 , 1 9 9 2 , p. 1 9 ,
P. Adigwe, B u s i n e s s T i m e s , November 9 , 1 9 9 2 P. 19.
P. E j i o f o r , Management i n N i g e r i a : T h e o r i e s a n d I s s u e s . ( O n i t s h a , A f r i c a n a FEP pub. L t d 1 9 8 7 1 , P. 137 .
F , W , T a y l o r , Shop Management ( N e w York; H a r p e r & Bras, 1 9 1 0 ) P, 21.
F. W , T a y l o r , p r i n c i p l e s of S c i e n t i f i c Management , ( N e w York H a r p e r & B r o s , f 9 1 0 ) , P. 1 4 0 .
P. F. D r u c k e r , Op . C i t . P . 274.
L. F. U r w i c k , The P a t t e r n of Management ( M i n e a p o l i s , u n i v e r s i t y of M i n n e s o t a pr$ss, 1 9 5 ~ ) ~ p , 8.
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CHAPTER TWO - L l T E R A T U R E REVIEW
2.1 Mearling of D e c i s i o n M a k i n ~
D e c i s i o n Making c o u l d be d e s c r i b e d a s a p e r v a s i v e
a s p e c t of t h e management p r o c e s s . B r o s s ( 1 9 5 3 : 2 )
d e f i n e d d e c i s i o n making a s * ' t h e p r o c e s s of s e l e c t i n g
one a c t i o n f r o m a number of a l t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s of
a c t i o n N . T h i s d e f i n i t i o n i m p l i e s t h a t f o r a d e c i s i o n
t o b e made, a l l t h e a l t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s of a c t i o n
must be o u t l . i n e d b e f o r e o n e i s c h o s e n . Nwachukwu
( 1 9 5 8 : 4 7 ) s e e s d e c i s i o n a s "a c h o i c e aimed a t
a c h i e v i n g optimum r e s u l t i n a g i v e n s i t : u a t i o n N . F o r
t h e c h o i c e t o b e e f f e c t i v e , i t must b e c r i t i c a l l y
a n a l y s e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e c h o i c e s .
H e wen t f u r t h e r t o d e s c r i b e d e c i s i o n a s " a m e n t a l
p r o c e s s t h a t f o r c e s u s t o a n a l y s e t h e s i t u a t i o n i n
o r d e r t o master i t , o r i n c r e a s e o u r knowledge on t h e
a r e a i n w h i c h d e c i s i o n i s t o be made" (Nwachukwu CC.
1 9 8 8 : 4 7 ) ,
The d e c i s i o n f a c i n g management c o u l d b e v e r y
s i m p l e i n o n e i n s t a n c e and complex i n a n o t h e r .
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D r u c k e r i d e n t i f i e s two t y p e s o f d e c i s i o n s namely
s t r a t e g i c and t a c t i c a l d e c i s i o n s . T a c t i c a l d e c i s i o n s
a r e a l w a y s one - d i m e n s i o n a l : t h e s i t u a t i o n i s g i v e n
and t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e e v i d e n t . S t r a t e g i c a e c i s l o r r s
i n v o l v e e i t h e r f i n d i n g o u t what t h e s i t u a t i o n i s , o r
c h a n g i n g i t , , e i t h e r f i n d i n g o u t what t h e r e s o u r c e s a r e
o r wha t t h e y s h o u l d be . Among t h e s e a r e a 1 1 d e c i s i o n s
on b u s i n e s s o b j e c t i v e s a n d on t h e means t o r e a c h t h e m .
H e m a i n t a i n e d t h a t " s t r a t e g i c d e c i s i o n w h a t e v e r t h e
m a g n i t u d e , c o m p l e x i t y o r i m p o r t a n c e s h o u l d n e v e r b e
t a k e n t h r o u g h p r o b l e m s o l v i n g . I n d e e d , i n t h e
s p e c i f i c a l l y m a n a g e r i a l d e c i s i o n s , t h e i m p o r t a n t and
d i f f i c u l t j o b i s n e v e r t o f i n d t h e r i g h t a n s w e r , i t
i s t o f i n d t h e r i g h t q u e s t i o n ' ' ( p . D r u c k e r 1 9 7 9 : 3 4 6 ) .
D e c i s i o n c a n b e made i n t h r e e d i s t i . n c t p r e m i s e s
namely -.
( a ) d e c i s i o n making u n d e r c e r t a i n t y
(b) d e c i s i o n making u n d e r r i s k ,
( c ) d e c i s i o n making u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y (C.22 W i l l s o n
1962 :150-164) . When a d e c i s i o n i s made w i t h
knowledge of t h e o c c u r a n c e of a n e v e n t , i t i s
made u n d e r c e l l t a i n t y . Under u n c e r t a i n t y , t h e
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c o n s e q u e n c e of e a c h c h o i c e c a n n o t be d e f i n e d by a
c o r r e s p o n d e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p e v e n w i t h p , r o b a b i l i s t i c
framework. D e c i s i o n making unde r r i s k , assumes t h a t
a c c u r a t e knowledge a b o u t t h e p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n
of t h e c o n s e q u e n c e of e a c h a l t e r n a t i v e e x i s t s
( H . A . Simon 1960 :2 ) .
D e c i s i o n Making P r o c e s s
S e v e r a l a u t h o r s have i d e n t i f i e d a number of
p h a s e s i n t h e d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s . G e n e r a l l y ,
t h e p r o c e s s i s t h e same, what d i f f e r s i s t h e
app roach . Simon c o n c e p t u a l i z e s t h r e e major p h a s e s
i n t h e d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s :
1. I n t e l l i g e n c e a c t i v i t y ; c o n s i s t s of s e a r c h i n g
t h e env i ronmen t f o r c o n d i t i o n s c a l l i n g f o r
d e c i s i o n making.
Des ign a c t i v i t y ; d u r i n g t h e second p h a s e ,
i n v e n t i n g , d e v e l o p i n g , and a n a l y s i n g p o s s i b l e
c o u r s e s of a c t i o n t a k e p l a c e .
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3 . C h o i c e a c t i v i t y ; t h e t h i r d and f i n a l p h a s e i s
t h e a c t u a l c h o i c e - s e l e c t i n g a p a r t i c u l a r
c o u r s e of a c t i o n f rom among t h o s e a v a i l a b l e .
M i n t z b e r g ( 1 9 7 6 : 2 7 5 ) and h i s c o l l e a g u e s came up
w i t h t h r e e p h a s e s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e a b o v e p h a s e s .
1 , The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n p h a s e , d u r i n g w h i c h
r e c o g n i t i o n of a p r o b l e m o r o p p o r t u n i t y a r i s e s
and a d i a g n o s i s i s made, I t was f o u n d t h a t
s e v e r e , i m m e d i a t e p r o b l e m d i d n o t h a v e a v e r y
s y s t e m a t i c , e x t e n s i v e d i a g n o s i s b u t t h a t m i l d
p r o b l e m s d i d .
2 . The d e v e l o p m e n t p h a s e , d u r i n g which t h e r e may
b e a s e a r c h f o r e x i s t i n g s t a n d a r d p r o c e d u r e s o r
s o l u t i o n s a l r e a d y i n p l a c e o r t h e d e s i g n of a
new, t a i l o r - made s o l u t i o n . I t was f o u n d t h a t
t h e d e s i g n p r o c e s s was a g r o u p i n g , t r i a l - and - e r r o r p r o c e s s i n which t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s had
o n l y a v a g u e i d e a of the i d e a l s o l u t i o n o
3 . The s e l e c t i o n p h a s e , d u r i n g c h i t h t h e c h o i c e of
s o l u t i o n i s made. T h e r e a r e t h r e e ways of
making t h i s s e l e c t i o n : b y t h e judgement of t h e
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d e c i s i o n m a k e r , on t h e b a s i s of e x p e r i e n c e o r
i n t u i t i o n r a , t h e r t h a n l o g i c a l a n a l y s i s ; by a n a l y s i s
of t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s on a l o g i c a l s y s t e m a t i c b a s i s ,
and by b a r g a i n i n g when t h e s e l e c t i o n i n v o l v e s a
g r o u p of d e c i s i o n m a k e r s a n d a l l t h e p r a c t i c a l
m a n e u v e r i n g t h a t t h i s e t l t a i l s . Once t h e d e c i s i o n i s
f o r m a l l y a c c e p t e d , a n a u t h o r i s a t i o n i s made, B
D r u c k e r (1979 :347-359) b r e a k s d e c i s i o n - making
i n t o f i v e d i s t i n c t p h a s e s :
1. D e f i n i n g t h e p r o b l e m : The f i r s t j o b i n d e c i s i o n
making i s t o f i n d t h e r e a l p r o b l e m and t o d e f i n e i t .
To a r r i v e a t t h e d e f i n i t i o n of t h e p r o b l e m , t h e manager
must b e g i n by f i n d i n g t h e c r i t i c a l f a c t o r . T h i s i s t h e
e l e m e n t ( e l e m e n t s ) i n t h e s i t u a t i o n t h a t h a s t o b e
c h a n g e d b e f o r e a n y t h i n g e l s e c a n b e c h a n g e d , moved o r
a c t e d upon, To r i n d t h e c r i t i c a l f a c t o r by s t r a i g h t
a n a l y s i s o f . t h e p r o b l e m i s n o t a l w a y s e a s y . O f t e n t w o
s u b s i d i a r y a p p r o a c h e s h a v e t o b e u s e d o o n e a p p r o a c h
a s s u m e s t h a t n o t h i n g w h a t e v e r w i l l c h a n g e ( m o v e ) , and
a s k s : wha t w i l l t h e n h a p p e n i n t i m e ? The o t h e r
a p p r o a c h p f o j e c t s b a c k w a r d s and a s k s : What t h a t c o u l d
h a v e b e e n d o n e o r l e f t undone a t t h e t i m e t h i s p rob lem
f i r . s t a p p e a r e d , would h a v e m a t e r i a l l y a f f e c t e d t h e
p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n .
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T h e s e c o n d s t e p i n t h e d e f i n i t i o n of t h e p r o b l e m
i s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e c o n d i t i o n s f o r i t s s o l u t i o n , T h e
o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e s o l u t i o n m u s t b e t h o u g h t t h r o u g h .
T h e o b j e c t i v e s s h o u l d a l w a y s r e f l e c t t h e o b j e c t i v e s of
t h e b u s i n e s s , s h o u l d a l w a y s b e f o c u s e d u l t i m a t e l y o n
b u s i n e s s p e r f o r m a ~ l c e a n d b u s i n e s s r e s u l t s .
F i n a l l y , t h e r u l e s t h a t l i m i t t h e s o l u t i o n m u s t
be t h o u g h t t h r o u g h . What a r e t h e p r i n c i p l e s , p o l i c i e s
a n d r u l e s of c o n d u c t t h a t h a v e t o b e f o l l o w e d .
T o s p e l l o u t t h e r u l e s i s n e c e s s a r y b e c a u s e i n many
c a s e s t h e r i g h t d e c i s i o n w i l l r e q u i r e c h a n g i n g a c c e p t e d
p o l i c i e s o r p r a c t i c e s . U n l e s s t h e m a n a g e r t h i n k s
t h r o u g h c l e a r l y w h a t h e w a n t s t o c h a n g e a n d why, h e i s
i n d a n g e r o f t r y i n g a t o n e a n d t h e same t i m e b o t h t o
a l t e r a n d p r e s e r v e e s t a b l i s h e d p r a c t i c e (H. K o o n t z
1980:240)
2 . A n a l y s i n g T h e p r o b l e m
F i n d i n . 9 t h e r i g h t q u e s t i o ~ ~ , s e r t i i l g t h e o b j e c t i v e s
a n d d e t e r m i n i n g t h e r u l e s t o g e t h e r c o n s t i t u t e t h e f i r s t
p h a s e i r l . d e c i s i o n mak ing . They d e f i n e t h e p r o b l e m . The
n e x t p h a s e i s a n a l y s i n g the p r o b l e m . C l a s s i f y i n g i t
a n d f i n d i n g t h e f a c t s .
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I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o c l a s s i f y t h e p r o b l e m i n o r d e r
t o know who m u s t make t h e d e c i s i o n , who m u s t b e
c o n s u l t e d i n m a k i n g i t a n d who m u s t be i n f o r m e d .
W i t h o u t p r i o r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f
t h e u l t i m a t e d e c i s i o n i s s e r i o u s l y e n d a n g e r e d ; f o r
t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a l o n e c a n show who h a s t o d o w h a t
i n o r d e r t o c o n v e r t t h e d e c i s i o n i n t o e f f e c t i v e a c t i o n
(T. L U C Y 1 9 8 4 : l ) .
A r a t . i o n a 1 d e c i s i o n r e q u i r e s t h e d e c i s i o n maker
t o a c q u i r e a t h o r o u g h u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p r o b l e m i n
o r d e r t o make a n i n t e l l i g e n t c h o i c e . T h i s demands
t h a t t h e d e c i s i o r l m a k e r s a t u r a t e s h i m s e l f w i t h f a c t s
a b o u t t h e s i t u a t i o n . A t t h i s s t a g e h e s e e k s
i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m e m p l o y e e s who h a v e e x p e r t k n o w l e d g e
a b o u t t h e s i t u a t i o n u n d e r s t u d y (W.D. B r i r k l o e 1 9 7 6 :
1 6 4 ) .
a. D e v e l o p i n g ~ l t e r n a t i v e S o l u t i o n s :
I t s h o u l d b e a n i n v a r i a b l e r u l e t o d e v e l o p
s e v e r a l a1 t e r t r a t i v e s o l u t i o n s r o r e v e r y p r o b l e m .
N o t h i n g i s m o r e ~ o m m o n t h a n r ~ ~ e c o n f u s i o n be twee l* a
t r u e c o n i r a d i c C ~ o n - g r e e n a n d n o n - g r e e n , f o r
i n s t a n c e - w h i c h e m b r a c e s a l l p o s s i b i 2 i t i e s , *nd a
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c o n t r a s t - g r e e n a n d r e d , f o r i n s t a n c e - w h i c h l i s t s
o n l y two o u t o f n u m e r o u s ~ o s s i b i l i t i e s . T h e d a n g e r
i s h e i g h t e n e d by t h e common human t e n d e n c y t o f o c u s o n
t h e e x t r e m e s ( G o M , R o c c a f e r r e r a 1 9 6 7 : l S ) .
T h e a b i l i t y t o d e v e l o p a l t e r n a t i v e s i s o f t e n a s
i m p o r t a n t a s s e l e c t i n g c o r r e c t l y f r o m among them. On
t h e o t h e r h a n d , i n g e n u i t y , r e s e a r c h , a n d p e r s p e c a c i t y
w i l l o f t e n u n e a r t h s o many c h o i c e s t h a t t h e y c a n n o t
be a d e q u a t e l y e v a l u a t e d (C. Churchman e t a1 1 9 9 5 7 : 1 8 ) .
A l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s a r e t h e o n l y means o f b r i n g i n g
o u t b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n s u p t h e c o n s c i o u s l e v e l , f o r c i n g
o u r s e l v e s t o e x a m i n e t h e m a n d t e s t i n g t h e i r v a l i d i t y .
T h e y a r e n o g u r a n t e e o f wisdom o r o f t h e r i g h t
d e ' c i s i o n . B u t a t l e a s t t h e y p r e v e n t o u r mak.ing w h a t
we w o u l d h a v e known t o b e t h e wrong d e c i s i o n s had w e
b u t t h o u g h t t h e p r o b l e m t h r o u g h .
What t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e , w i l l v a r y w i t h t h e
p r o b l e m , B u t o n e p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n s h o u l d a l w a y s be
c o n s i d e r e d : t a k i n g n o a c t i o n a t a l l , To t a k e n o
a c t i o n i s a d e c i s i o n f u l l y a s much a s t o t a k e s p e c i f i c
a c t i o n . I t i s p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t i n a l l o r g a n i s a -
t i o n p r o b l e m s t h a t o n e c o n s i d e r s t h e a l t e r n a t i v e o f
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d o i n g n o t h i n g (Lo B. B i t t e l , J . Ramsey 1990:635).
4 , F i n d i . n g t h e B e s t S o l u t i o n
T h i s i s t h e t i m e t o d e t e r m i n e t h e b e s t s o l u t i o n .
D r u c k e r o u t l i n e s f o u r c r i t e r i a f o r p i c k i n g t h e b e s t
f rom among t h e p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n s :
1. The R i s k : The manager h a s t o w e i g h t h e
r i s k s of e a c h c o u r s e of a c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e e x p e c t e d
g a i n s . T h e r e i s n o r i s k l e s s a c t i o n n o r e v e n r i s k l e s s
n o n - a c t i o n , But wha t m a t t e r s mos t i s n e i t h e r t h e
e x p e c t e d g a i n n o r t h e a n t r c i p a t e d r i s k , b u t t h e r a t i o
b e t w e e n them, E v e r y a1 t e r n a t i v e s h o u l d t h e r e f o r e
c o n t a i n a n a p p r a i s a l of t h e o d d s i t c a r r i e s ,
2 , Economy o f E f f o r t : Which of the p o s s i b l e l i n e s
o f a c t i o n w i l l g i v e t h e g r e a t e s t r e s u 1 . t ~ w i t h t h e
l e a s t e f f o r t s w i l l o b t a i n t h e n e e d e d c h a n g e w i t h t h e
l e a s t n e c e s s a r y d i s t u r b a n c e o f t h e o r q a n i s a t i o n ? F a r
. . ; t o o many m a n a g e r s p i c k a n e l e p h a n t gun t o c h a s e p a r r o ~ s .
Too many o t h e r s u s e s l i n g s h o t s a g a i n s t f o r t y t o n
t a n k s .
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3 , Timing : I f t h e s i t u a t i o n h a s g r e a t u r g e n c y ,
t h e p r e f e r a b l e c o u r s e of a c t i o n i s o n e t h a t d r a m t i z e s
t h e d e c i s i o n and s e r v e s n o t i c e o n t h e o r g a n i s a t i o n
t h a t s o m e t h i n g i m p o r t a n t i s h a p p e n i n g , I f , on t h e
o t h e r h a n d , l o n g , c o n s i s t e n t e f f o r t i s n e e d e d , a s l o w
s t a r t t h a t g a t h e r s momentum may b e p r e f e r a b l e .
4. L i m i t a t i o n s of R e s o u r c e s : The most i m p o r t a n t
r e s o u r c e whose l i m i t a t i o n s h a v e t o b e c o n s i d e r e d , a r e
t h e human b e i n g s who w i l l c a r r y o u t t h e d e c i s i o n . No
d e c i s i o n c a n be b e t t e r t h a n t h e p e o p l e who c a r r y i t o u t
The wrong d e c i s i o n must h e v e r be a d o p t e d b e c a u s e
p e o p l e a n d t h e c o m p e t e n c e t o d o what i s r i g h t a r e
l a c k i n g , The d e c i s i o n s h o u l d a l w a y s l i e b e t w e e n g e n u i n e
a l t e r n a t i v e s , t h a t i s , b e t w e e n c o u r s e s of a c t i o n , e v e r y
o n e o f w h i c h w i l l a d e q u a t e l y s o l v e t h e p rob lem. ~ n d i f
t h e p r o b l e m c a n b e s o l v e d o n l y by demanding more of
p e o p l e t h a n t h e y a r e c a p a b l e o f g i v i n g , t h e y mus t
e i t h e r l e a r n t o d o more o r b e r e p l a c e d by p e o p l e who
c a n .
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Making T h e C e c i s i o n E f f e c t i v e :
A d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i s o n l y c o m p l e t e d when i t
h a s b e e n i m p l e m e n t e d . Any s o l u t i o n h a s t o b e made
e f f e c t i v e i n a c t i o n . F o r some i m p o r t a n t d e c i s i o n s t o
b e i m p l e m e n t e d e f f e c t i v e l y , t h e d e c i s i o n maker h a s t o
s e e k a n d o b t a i n t h e c o - o p e r a t i o n of e v e r y o n e I r l v o l v e d .
H e h a s t o " se l l " t h e d e c i s i o n t o t h e m o
T o c o n v e n t a s o l u t i o n i n t o a c t i o n r e q u i r e s t h a t
p e o p l e u n d e r s t a n d w h a t c h a n g e i n b e h a v i o u r i s e x p e c t e d
o f o t h e r s w i t h whom t h e y work . T h e p r i n c i p l e o f
e f f e c t i v e c o m m u n i c a t i o n i s t o c o n v e y o n l y t h e
s i g n i f i c a n t d e v i a t i o n o r e x c e p t i o n - a n d t h a t i n c l e a r
p r e c i s e a n d u n a m b i q u o u s f o r m o
T h e d e c i s i o n s h o u l d s t r i v e a t h e l p i n g o t h e r
p e o p l e a c h i e v e t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s , e n h a n c e t h e i r
p e r f o r m a n c e a n d l e a d t o a g r e a t e r s e n s e of a c h i e v e m e r r t .
T h i s i s o c c a s i o n e d by t h e f a c t t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n
a f f e c t s t h e work o f o t h e r p e o p l e .
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Q u a n t i t a t i v e Methods Def ined
B e f o r e d e l ~ i n g i n t o any d e f i n i t i o n s , i t s h o u l d
b e s t a t e d t h a t a p a r t f rom t h e t e r m q u a n t i t a t i v e
methods , many o t h e r terms a r e u sed f o r t h e c o n c e p t s
and t e c h n i q u e s d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s p r o j e c t , These
i n c l u d e : - O p e r a t i o n s Resea rch ( O R ) / ~ a n a g e m e n t
S c i e n c e / Q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s / A n a l y t i c a l T e c h n i q u e s
a n d / B u s i n e s s Ma thema t i c s . So any of t h e s e t e r m s
c o u l d be u sed i n t e r c h a n g e a b l y and f o r t h e p u r p o s e of
t h i s p r o j e c t , t h e y w i l l r e f e r t o t h e same t h i n g .
S e v e r a l d e f i n i t i o n s of o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h e x i s t
a s t h e r e a r e w r i t e r s on t h e s u b j e c t . Koontx e t a 1 -
d e f i n e s o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h a s "The a p p l i c a t i o n of
s c i e n t i f i ~ z method t o t h e s t u d y of a l t e r n a t i v e s i n a
problem s i t u a t i o n , w i t h a view t o p r o v i d i n g a
q u a n t i t a t i v e b a s i s f o r a r r i v i n g a t a n optimum s o l u t i o n
i n terms of t h e g o a l sought" . T h i s d e f i n i t i o n p l a c e s
a n e m p h a s i s on s c i e n t i f i c method, on t h e u s e of
q u a n t i t a t i v e d a t a , on g o a l s and f i n d i n g t h e optimum
o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h a s " t h e a t t a c k of modern s c i e n c e
on complex p rob lems a r i s i n g i n t h e d i r e c t i o n and
management of l a r g e s y s t e m s of men, mach ines , m a t e r i a l s
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a n d money , i n i n d u s t r y , b u s i n e s s , g o v e r n m e n t a n d
d e f e n c e . T h e d i s t i n c t i v e a p p r o a c h i s t o d e v e l o p a
s c i e n t i c mode l o f t h e s y s t e m i n c o r p o r a t i n g
m e a s u r e m e n t s of f a c t o r s s u c h a s c h a n c e a n d r i s k ,
w i t h w h i c h t o p r e d i c t a n d c o m p a r e t h e o u t c o m e o f
a l t e r n a t i v e d e c i s i o n s , i t s p o l i c y a n d a c t i o n
s c i e n t i f i c a l l y , T h i s i s a v e r y b r o a d d e f i n i t i o n
b r i n g i n g t o g e t h e r t h e e s s e n t i a l e l e m e n t s o f o p e r a t i o n s
r e s e a r c h . L i k e t h e f i r s t d e f i n i t i o n , i t e m p h a s e s
s c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d a n d p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y .
A n o t h e r a u t h o r , B r i n k l o e ( 1 9 7 6 ) d e f i n e s o p e r a t i o n s
r e s e a r c h a s l * o n e name g i v e n t o t h e b r o a d arid r a t h e r
a m o r p h o u s s c i e n c e o f e s t a b l i s h i n g m a t h e m a t i c a l o r o t h e r
e x p l i c i t r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t d e s c r i b e t h e k e y e l e m e n t s
o f some a c t u a l p h y s i c a l o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p r o c e s s w i t h
r e a s o n a b l e f i d e l i t y , a n d o f d r a w i n g u s e f u l c o n c l u s i o n s
a b o u t t h e a c t u a l p r o c e s s t h r o u g h a n a l y s i s o f t h e s e
r e l a t i o n s h i p s " . The i m p o r t o f t h i s d e f i r l i t i o n i s c h a t
o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h p u t s a s i d e t h e l e s s s i g n i f i c a n r
t a c t o r s a n d d e s c r i b e s t h e way i n w h i c h r h e k e y f a c t o r s
c o u t r i b u t e ' t o t h e k e y p r o d u ~ t .
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The committee o n o p e r a t i o u s r e s e a r c n o f t n e
Nat io . .a l R e s e a r ~ n C o u n c i l d.? ' i v e r e d t h e f o l l o w i n g
d e f i n i t i o n of o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h : " O p e r a t i o n s
r e s e a r c h i s t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e s c i e n t i f i c method
t o t h e s t u d y o f t h e o p e r a t i b n s o f l a r g e c o m p l e x
o r g a n i s a t i o n o r a c t i v i t i e s " . They wen t f u r t h e r t o
s t a t e t h a t o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h may " p r o v i d e t o p l e v e l
a d m i n i s t r a t o r s w i t h a q u a n t i t a t i v e b a s i s f o r d e c i s i o n
t h a t w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s u c h
o r g a n i s a t i o n s i n c a r r y i n g o u t t h e i r b a s i c p u r p o s e . "
O p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h t h u s p r o v i d e s a n o b j e c t i v e
s u p p l e m e n t t o t h e s u b j e c t i v e f e e l i n g o f t h e d e c i s i o n
maker .
O p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h was d e f i n e d by churchman
e t a 1 a s " a n a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s c i e n t i f i c method t o
p r o b l e m s a r i s i n g i n t h e s e p e r a t i o n of a s y s t e m w h i c h
may b e r e p r e s e n t e d b y means o f a m a t h e m a t i c a l model
and t h e s o l v i n g o f t h e s e p r o b l e m s by r e s o l v i n g t h e
S i m p l y p u t , e q u a t i o n s r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e sys tem."
o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h i s t h e u s e o f m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l s
t o s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m s i n h e r e n t i n a s y s t e m .
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Q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s e x t r a c t frorr, p a s t
i n f o r m a t i o n t o p r o v i d e maximum g u i d a n c e f o r f u t u r e
a c t i o n s . T h e s e a r e t o o l s o f i n f o r m a t i o n , a n d o f
i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g . They r a i s e t h e q u e s t i o n
o f w h a t u n d e r l i e s t h e phenomena , r a t h e r t h a n m e r e l y
d e s c r i b i n g them. T h e y f o c u s o n a c t i o n , s h o w i n g w h a t
a l t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n s t h e r e a r e a n d w h a t
e a c h i m p l i e s . They t h e r e f o r e make p o s s i b l e d e c i s i o n s
w i t h a h i g h d e g r e e o f r a t i o n a l i t y i n r e s p e c t of
f u t u r i l y , r i s k a n d p r o b a b i l i t y .
2.3 T y p e s o f Q u a n t i t a t i v e p l e t h o d s
/ G e n e r a l l y , q u a r l t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n v o l v e t h e
u s e o f m o d e l s . A mode l i s a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f a
r e a l i t y ( o b j e c t , s y s t e m o r i d e a ) i n f o r m o t h e r t h a n '
t h a t o f t h e e n t i t y i t s e l f . T h e p u r p o s e i s t o a i d i n
e x p l a i n i a g , u n d e r s t a n d i n g o r i m p r o v i n g t h e s y s t e m
u n d e r s t u d y . T h e m o s t commonly u s e d mode l i n
o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h s t u d i e s i s t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l
mode l . I t c o n s i s t s o f e q u a t i o n s o r f o r m u l a e d e r i v e d
t o show t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s
i n t h e o p e r a t i o n u n d e r s t u d y .
Some e x a m p l e s o f t h e s e m o d e l s u s e d a r e g i v e n
be low: L
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2.3.1 p r o b a b i l i t y T h e o r y
A c c o r d i n g t o Ewurum ( 1 9 9 8 ) P r o b a b i l i t y i s
a n o t h e r s t a t i s t i c a l c o n c e p t t h a t i s of g r e a t
i m p o r t a n c e t o t h e manager . The m a n a g e r 1 s d e c i s i o n
a r e i n p r o b a b i l i s t i c terms. T h a t m e a n s , t h e r e i s
a l w a y s a n e - l e m e n t o f u n c e r t a i n t y . ~ o s t of t h e
d e c i s i o n s t h e manager makes c o n t a i n e l e m e n t s o f
u n c e r t a i n t y . A s i t u a t i o n of p e r f e c t u n c e r t a i n t y
h a s a p r o b a b i l i t y of 0.00 ( z e r o ) . C e r t a i n t y s u g g e s t s
a p r o b a b i l i t y of 1 .00 ( o n e ) . The p r o b a b i l i t y of a n y
management e v e n t s t a n d s b e t w e e n o n e and z e r o m e .
A c c o r d i n g t o Nwabuokei ( 1 9 8 6 : 1 3 1 ) . p r o b a b i l i t y
t h e o r y i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e s t u d y of random e v e n t s .
Random e v e n t s a r e e v e n t s w h i c h may o c c u r o r f a i l t o
o c c u r when a s t a t i s t i c a l e x p e r i m e n t i s p e r f o r m e d .
P r o b a b i l i t y h a s b e e n d e f i n e d a s t h e " q u a n t i t i f i c a t i o n
of u n c e r t a i n t y ( H . G . H i c k s , G.R. G u l l e t 1 9 8 0 : 3 4 2 ) .
I t i s t h e c h a n c e of a n e v e n t o c c u r i n g .
p r o b a b . i l i t y i s s a i d t o b e o b j e c t i v e when
p r o b a b i l i t y ' o f a n e v e n t i s b a s e d o n p a s t d a t a and
t h e c i r c u m s t a n c e s a r e r e p e a t a b l e by t e s t . F o r e x a m p l e
t h e p r o b a b i l i t y of t o s s i n g a c o i n and a head showing
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i s 50% o r +. T h i s v a l u e c a n b e shown t o b e c o r r e c t
by r e p e a t e d t r i a l s . I n m o s t c i r c u m s t a n c e s o b j e c t i v e
p r o b a b i l i t i e s a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e i n b u s i n e s s s i t u a t i o n ,
so t h a t s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t i e s m u s t b e u s e d . I t i s
s u b j e c t i v e i n t h e s e n s e t h a t i t i s b a s e d o n p e r s o n a l
j u d g e m e n t . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e s a l e s m a n a g e r c o n s i d e r s
t h a t t h e r e i s 30% c h a n c e ( t h a t i s p 3 ) o f o b t a i n i n g
t h e o r d e r f o r w h i c h t h e f i r m h a s j u s t q u o t e d . T h i s
v a l u e c a n n o t b e t e s t e d b y r e p e a t e d t r i a l s .
B a s i c R u l e s o f P r o b a b i l i t y : T h e s e r u l e s a p p l y
t o s t a t i s t : i c a l l y i n d e p e ~ r d e n t e v e n t s , t h a t i s , t h e
o c c u r a n c e o f o n e e v e n t i s c o m p l e t e l y i n d e p e n d e n t of
t h e o c c u r a n c e of a n y o t h e r e v e n t .
( a ) M u l t i p l i c a t i o n R u l e : Uscd when t h e r e i s a
s t r i n g o f i n d e p e n d e n t f o r w h i c h e a c h i n d i v i d u a l
p r o b a b i l i t ) i s known arid i t i s r e q u i r e d t o know t h e
o v e r a l l p r o b a b i l i t y o - ' Example : w h a t i s t h e
p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h r o w i n g a 3 a n d a 6 w i t h t w o t r ~ r o w s
o f a d i e ?
P ( t h r o w i n g a 3 ) a n d p ( t h r o w i n g a 6 ) - "6
P ( t h i o w i n g a 3 a n d 6 ) . x
"36
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( b ) ~ d d i t i o n a l R u l e : Used t o c a l c u l a t e t h e
p r o b a b i l i t y o f two o r more m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e e v e n t s .
I n s u c h c i r c u m s t a n c e s t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f t h e s e p a r a t e
e v e n t s m u s t b e a d d e d .
Example wha t i s t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h r o w i n g a 3 o r a 6
w i t h a t h r o w o f a d i e ?
P ( t h r o w i n g a 3 ) 1 1/6 and P ( t h r o w i n g a 6 ) = "6.
P ( t h r o w i n g a 3 o r a 6 ) = +
= 1 4
( c ) C o n d i t i o n a l p r o b a b i l i t y : T h i s i s t h e p r o b a b i l i t y
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o m b i n a t i o n s o f e v e n t s b u t g i v e n t h a t
some p r i o r r e s u l t h a s a l r e a d y b e e n a c h i e v e d w i t h o n e
o f them. C o n d i t i o n a l p r o b a b i l i t y i s u s u a l l y e x p r e s s e d
i n t h e fo rm.
p ( x / ) w h i c h means p r o b a b i l i t y of x g i v e n t h a t Y
y h a s o c c u r e d .
E x p e c t e d Va lue : The c o n c e p t o f e x p e c t e d v a l u e i s
p a r t i c u l a r 1 y u s e F u l i n d e c i s i o n making when t h e
d e c i s i o n i n v o l v e s e s t i m a t e d p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f f u t u r e
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s t a t e s o r c o n d i t i o n s . T h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e o f a n y
e v e n t i s d e f i n e d a s i t s p r o b a b i l i t y of:, o c c u r a n c e
m u l t i p l i e d by i t s c o n d i t i o n a l v a l u e ( W . J. F a b r y c k y
1987: 3 3 ) .
T h e p a y o f f m a t r i n i s u s e d i n d i s p l a y i n g a n d
s u m m a r i z i n g t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e s o f a l t e r n a t i v e
s t r a t e g i e s . The rows o f t h e m a t r i x r e p r e s e n t t h e
a l t e r n a t i v e s t r a t e g i e s b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d by t h e
d e c i s i o n maker a n d t h e c o l u m n s r e p r e s e n t b o t h
c o n d i t i o n a l a n d e x p e c t e d v a l u e s u n d e r d i f f e r e n t s t a t e s
o f n a t u r e . Example: Two p r o j e c t s a r e b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d
a n d i t i s r e q u i r e d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e e x p e c t e d v a l u e o f
e a c h p r o j e c t . The p r o j e c t d a t a h a v e b e e n e s t i m a t e d a s
f o l l o w s :
p r o j e c t A P r o j e c t B
O p t i m i s t i c 5500 x .2 1 1 0 0 b O O O x 0 1 = 6 0 0
Outcome
Most l i k e l y 3000x.5 1500 3500 x -6 = 2100 Outcome
P e s s i m i s t i c Outcome 2500 x .3 =. 750 1 0 0 0 x - 3 = 300
P r o j e c t E V N 3350 H3000
P a y o f f M a t r i x
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On t h e b a s i s o f e x p e c t e d v a l u e , p r o j e c t A
would b e p r e f e r r e d a s i t h a s a h i g h e r va lue .&-
D e c i s i o n T r e e s : T h e d e c i s i o n t r e e a p p r o a c h t o
m o d e l l i n g f o r d e c i s i o n mak ing p u r p o s e s a t t e m p t s t o
d e a l w i t h f u t u r e u n c e r t a i n t i e s by e v a l u a t i n g a l l
p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s u s i n g s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t i e s a n d
e x p e c t e d v a l u e . It i s a p i c t o r i a l me thod o f s h o w i n g
a s e q u e n c e o f i f i t e r r e l a t e d d e c i s i o n s a n d o u t c o m e s .
The nane d e c i s i o n t r ee came f r o m t h e f a c t t h a t when
c o m p l e t e d i t s l o o k s l i k e a t r ee .
F o r e x a m p l e , i k a n e x e c u t i v e i s f a c e d w i t h a n
i n v e s t m e n t . d e c i s i o n o n w h a t t o d o w i t h #1 m i l l i o n
i d l e f u n d s , t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e a s f o l l o w s :
( a ) F i x e d d e p o s i t a c c o u n t y i e l d i n g 30% i n t e r e s t
(b) I l l v e s t m e n t p r o p o s a l y i e l d i n g
( i ) N 2 m i l l i o n if economy i m p r o v e s , o r
( i i ) r e d u c i n g t o N800 ,000 i f economy r e m a i n s
he s a m e , o r
( i i i ) r e d u c i n g t o N400,OOO i f economy w o r s e n s
Wha) d e - i s i o n s h o u l d n e a d o p t ?
T h e d e c i s i o n t r ee matiremat i c a l e x a m p l e i s shown
b e l o w w i t h t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f e a c h a l t e r u a t i v e g i v e n .
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Economy i m p r o v e s w i t h p r o b a b i l i t y o f 0 - 2 y i e l d s H2m
Economy r e m a i n s same w i t h p r o b a b i l i t y of 0.5 y i e l d s H . 8
Economy w o r s e n s w i t h p r o b a b i l i t y of 0.3 y i e l d s H.4m
p u t i n f i x e d D e p o s i t w i t h p r o b a b i l i t y of 1 - 0 0 y i e l d s
~ 1 , 3 0 0 , 0 0 0 .,
M a t h e m a t i c a l e x p e c t a t i o n i f economy i m p r o v e s i s
0.2 x 2m W.4m.
If Economy r e m a i n s t h e same, i t i s 0.5 x .8m = W.4
If Economy w o r s e n s , t h e e x p e c t a t i o n i s 0.3 x .4m =
~ 1 2 0 0 0 0 .
The t o t a l m a t h e m a t i c a l e x p e c t a t i o n i s t h e r e f o r e
N920,000 f o r t h e i n v e s t m e n t o p t i o n . S i n c e t h a t o f
t h e f i x e d d e p o s i t i s ~ 1 , 3 0 0 000 ( i e 1.00 x 1 ,30Q000)
t h e n t h e e x e c u t i v e w i l l h a v e t o make u s e of t h e f i x e d
d e p o s i t o p t i o n (W. J. F a b r y c k y 1 9 8 7 ) .
L i n e a r Proqramming Mode ls
L i n e a r programming i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e a l l o c a t i o n
of s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s . I t i s a p p l i c a b l f t t o t h e g e n e r a l
-. c a t e g o r y of p r o b l e m s t h a t r e q u i r e t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f
a l i n e a r e f f e c t i v e n e s s f u n c t i o n s u b j e c t t o l i n e a r
. . 1 L.-
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c o n s t r a i n t s . T h e s e c o n s t r a i n t s e x i s t b e c a u s e t h e
a c t i v i t i e s u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n u s u a l l y c o m p e t e f o r
s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s , - O p t i m i z a t i o n may r e q u i r e
m i n i m i z a t i o n of c o s t , t i m e o r d i s t a n c e , o r i t may
r e q u i r e t h e m a x i m i z a t i o n o f p r o f i t , y i e l d , o r some
o t h e r d e s i r a b l e o u t p u t m e a s u r e , d e p e n d i n g on t h e
s i t u a t i o n u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n ,
A m a j o r f a c t o r i n l i n e a r programming i s t h e
r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t a l l r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e l i n e a r , I t
i s r a t h e r o b v i o u s t h a t n o t a l l f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d i n
b u s i n e s s d e t i i s i o n s a r e l i n e a r and i n d e e d i n some
s i t u a t i o n s n o n - l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e t y p i c a l
a n d d e s i r a b l e (J, E. Ul lman 1 9 7 6 : 6 9 ) ,
S e v e r a l m e t h o d s a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r s o l v i n g two
p r o d u c t p r o b l e m s , By f a r , t h e e a s i e s t a r e t h e
g r a p h i c a l me thod a n d t h e method o f e n u m e r a t i o n . F o r
more p r o d u c t s a n d more r e s t r i c t i o n s , t h e s i m p l e x
method i s t h e o n e of c h o i c e ( T Lucy 1984 : 2 0 3 ) .
The G r a p h i c a l Method: An i l l u s t r a t i o n w i l l p r o v i d e
a b e t t e r d e m o s t r a t i o n .
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Example I: The e x a m p l e b e l o w g i v e s t h e numbers o f
p o u n d s o f e a c h of two i n g r e d i e n t s i n o n e u n i t o f
e a c h o f two c h e m i c a l compounds. How many u n i t s X I
and X 2 of t h e two compounds s h o u l d b e p r o d u c e d ?
To p r o d u c e compound, 8 p o u n d s of m a t e r i a l A a n d 2
p o u n d s o f m a t e r i a l B a r e n e e d e d . To p r o d u c e
compound 2 , 4 p o u n d s o f m a t e r i a l A and 6 p o u n d s o f
m a t e r i a l B a r e n e e d e d . The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f A and B
a r e 1 6 0 and 60 r e s p e c t i v e l y . The p r o f i t c o n t r i b u t i o n s
a r e 3 and 4 f o r x l and x r e s p e c t i v e l y . 2
Maximise Z P 3 x 1 + 4 x 2
s u b j e c t t o c o n s t r a i n t s : 8 x 1 + 4 x 2 - 1 6 0
2x1 + 6x2 - 60
T h i s e q u a t i o n c a n be s o l v e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y a s s e e n
b e l o w - 8 x l + 4x2 P 1 6 0 x ( 2 ) e q u a t i o n (1)
2 x 1 + 6x2 = 60 x 8 e q u a t i o n ( 2 )
- 1 6 x 1 + 8 x 2 = 320 e q u a t i o n ( 3 )
1 6 x l + 48x2 = 480 e q u a t i o n ( 4 )
40x2 = 1 6 0
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S u b s t i t u t e 4 f o r X2 i n e q u a t i o n ( 1 )
The g r a p h c a n b e p l o t e d s h o w i n g t h e f e a s i b l e
r e g i o n . Where t h e f e a s i b l e r e g i o n h a s b e e n d e f i n e d ,
i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o f i n d t h e p o i n t i n o r o n t h e e d g e
o f t h e f e a s i b l e r e g i o n t h a t g i v e s t h e maximum
c o n t r i b u t i o n w h i c h i s t h e s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e . T h i s
i s d o n e b y p l o t t i n g l i n e s r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e o b j e c t i v e
f u n c t i o n a n d t h e r e b y i d e n t i f y i n g t h e p o i n t i n t h e
f e a s i b l e r e g i o n w h i c h l i e s o n t h e maximum v a l u e
o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n l i n e t h a t c a n b e d rawn . From t h e
a b o v e s i m u l t a n e o u s e q u a t i o n , , T h e c o - o r d i n a t e s a r e
XI = 18, X2 , 4. T h e v a l u e s a r e g o t t e n b y s o l v i n g
t h e two e q u a t i o n s a b o v e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . T h u s 18 u n i t s
o f x l a n d 4 u n i t s o f X2 s h o u l d b e p r o d u c e d . T h e
c o r r e s p o n d i n g maximum p r o f i t i s - Z - ' 3 ( 1 8 ) + 4 ( 4 ) = H70
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The a b o v e e x a m p l e w a s a m a x i m i s a t i o n p r o b l e m s ,
t h e manager m i g h t want t o m i n i m i s e c o s t s u b j e c t t o
l i m i t a t i o n s . The l i m i t a t i o n s a r e g e n e r a l l y of t h e
g r e a t e r t h a n o r e q u a l t o t y p e ( 2 ) f o r t h e l o g i c a l
r e a s o n i n g t h a t t h e b e s t way t o m i n i m i z e c o s t s would
be t o p r o d u c e n o t h i n g . T h u s , t h e l i m i t a t i o n s m u s t
b e s e t s o a s t o p r o d u c e t h e minimum p o s s i b l e t h a t
f u l f i l s c e r t a i n r e q u i r e m e n t s .
The s i m p l e x Method:
A c c o r d i n g t o (Ewurum, 1998). * * s i m p l e x method
r e s t s o n f e a s i b i l i t y and o p t i m a l i t y . The s e a r c h
f o r o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s t a r t s w i t h
(1) t h e f i n d i n g o f t h e b a s i c f e a s i b l e s o l u t i o n s
( 2 ) T e s t t o r o p t i m a l i t y
( 3 ) R e v i s i o n . " '
T I A ~ s i m p l e x method i s a n a l g o r i t h m t h a t makes
p o s s i b l e t h e n u m e r i c a l s o l u t i o n o t t h e G e n e r a l l i n e a r
programmioy p r o b l e m . It i s n o t r e s t r i c t e d t o
p r o b l e m s w i t h t h r e e o r f e w e r a c t i v i t i e s a s i n g r a p h i c a l
o p t i m i z a t i o n method. The s i m p l e x method i s a n i t e r a t i v e
p r o c e s s t h a t b e g i n s w i t h a f e a s i b l e s o l u t i o n , t e s t s f o r
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o p t i m a l i t y , and p r o c e e d s t o w a r d a n improved s o l u t i o n ,
The g o a l o f t h e s i m p l e x method i s t o f i n d a n o p t i m a l
s o l u t i o n , I t a c c o m p l i s h e s t h a t g o a l q u i c k l y by
l i m i t i n g t h e s e a r c h t o c o r n e r p o i n t s t h a t i m p r o v e
t h e s o l u t i o n . -
T h i s method h a s a v e r y w i d e s p a n o f u t i l i z a t i o n .
ICs u s e i s a m a t t e r of r o u t i n e , t h u s , i t c a n b e
a d v a n t a g e o u s l y a p p l i e d by u s i n g punched c a r d e q u i p m e n t
o r c o m p u t e r , When e a c h i t e r a t i o n i s c o m p l e t e d , t h e
r e s u l t s a r e a u t o m a t i c a l l y c h e c k e d and i f t h e r e q u i r e d
o b j e c t i v e h a s n o t y e t b e e n r e a c h e d , a n o t h e r c o m p l e t e
c y c l e i s r e p e a t e d by c o m p u t i n g t h e d a t a o b t a i n e d f r o m
t h e p r e v i o u s i t e r a t i o n . ; T h i s method h a s a p e c u l i a r
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c - i t c a n b e a p p l i e d by a n y o n e who knows
t h e r o u t i n e e v e n w i t h o u t knowing t h e t h e o r y and t h e
r e a s o n s f o r t h e s t e p s i n t h e p r o c e s s . From a
m a n a g e r i a l p o i n t o f v i e w , i t i s s u f f i c i e n t t h a t t h e
d e c i s i o n maker b e a c q u i n t e d w i t h t h e u s e o f t h e s i m p l e x
method a n d know when i t c a n b e a p p l i e d w i t h p r o f i t , i n
o r d e r t o s e c u r e a r e l i a b l e s o l u t i o n t o a b u s i n e s s q u e r y .
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The T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Mode l :
The t y p i c a l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o b l e m i n v o l v e s a
number o f s o u r c e s o f s u p p l y ( e g w a r e h o u s e s ) a r ~ d a
number o f d e s t i n a t i o n s ( e . g r e t a i l s h o p s ) , T h e
u s u a l o b j e c t i v e i s t o m i n i m i z e t h e t r a > l s p o r t a t i o n
c o s t o f s u p p l y i n g q u a ~ i t i t i e s o f a commodi ty f r o m t h e
w a r e h o u s e t o t h e s h o p s ( G , R o c c a f e r r e r a 19b7: 2 4 0 ) ,
I n 1 9 4 1 , F. L. H i t c h c o c k p r e s e ' l t e d a s t u d y t i t l e d
"The D i s t r i b u t i o n o f a p r o d u c t f r o m s e v e r a l s o u r c e s t o
n u m e r o u s l o c a l i t i e s " , T h i s f o r m e d t h e f i r s t i m p o r t a n t
c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e s o l u t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o b l e m s .
A l l t . r a n s p o r t a t i o n - t y 2 e p r o b l e m s , a r e c h a r a c t e r i s e d
by t h e c e r t a i n t y o f t h e d a t a a n d m e a s u r e m e n t s r e l a t e d t o
t h e p r o b l e m i t s e l f , A t r a n s p o r t a t i o n mode l b e c o m e s
a p p l i c a b l e when t w o o r more s o u r c e s o f su ; :p ly a r e
d i s t r i b u t i n g o n e commodi ty t o two o r more r e c e i v i r l g
p o i n t s . ~ l t h o u g h , t h e me thod o f s o l v i n g t r a n s p o r t a ~ i o n
p r o b l e m s d i t r e r s i a a p p e a r a n c e f r o m t h e s i m p l e x m e t h o d ,
i t h a s some b a s i c s i m i l a r i ~ i e s . B o t h a r e i t e r a t i v e ,
s t e p by satep p r o c e s s a u d a n opt imum i s r e a c h e d whetr
u o f u r t h e r c o s ~ r e d u c t i o u i s p o s s i b l e ,
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A g c n e r a l g r i d f o r a n y t y p e of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n
p r o b l e m i s shown b e l o w - L e t F l , F 2 , F 3 , F4 r e p r e s e n t t h e s u p p l y i n g p o i n t s
( o r i g i n ) a n d l e t ~ 1 , W2, W3, W4, W S r e p r e s e n t t h e
r e c e i v i n g p o i n t s . L e t p f l , p f 2 , p f 3 , p f 4 r e p r e s e n t
q u a n t i t y p r o d u c e d a n d s u p p l i e d a t a p a r t i c u l a r p e r i o d
t o d i f f e r e n t d e s t i n a t i o n s , a n d l e t H W ~ , Rw2, Hw3 a n d
Rw4 r e p r e s e n t t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f e a c h d e s t i n a t i o n a t
a p a r t i c u 1 , l r t i m e .
I n t h e a b o v e , W 1 , W2, W3 a n d s o ; > c f e r t o t h e
r e c e i v i n g p o i n t s a n d F 1 , F 2 , F 3 r e p r e s e n t t h e s u p p l y i n g
p o i n t . p f l i s t h e t o t a l q u a n t i t y p r o d u c e d i n a
d e t e r m i n e d p e r i o d o f t i m e b y t h e f a c t o r y F 1 a n d ~ w l i s
t h e t o t a l r e q u i r e m e n t o f t h e w a r e h o u s e W 1 . G w i s t h e
g r a n d t o t a l of t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s a n d Gf i s t h e g r a n d
t o t a l of p r o d u c t i o n .
U s i n g t h e s t e p p i n g s t o n e m e t h o d , a b a s i c f e a s i b l e
s o l u t i o n may be d e f i n e d a s a n y s o l u t i o n i n w h i c h t h e
number o f e m p t y c e l l s i s g i v e n by t h e f o r m u l a r
(H. W. ~ U h n 1 9 5 5 , No2 M a r c h ) b d ~ ~
Empty c e l l s = ( ~ . n . ) M + n - 1, w h e r e M i s t h e
number o f s u p p l y i n g p o i n t s , a n d n i s t h e number of
r e c e i v i n g p o i l l t s . rJherl a g r i d o r a t a b l e c d r r y i n g a
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s o l u t i o n has more empty c e l l s t h a n t h i s r u l e
i n d i c a t e s , i t i s c a l l e d d e g e n e r a t e .
O t h e r m e t h o d s of s o l v i n g t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n
t y p e p r o b l e m s e x i s t . Some o f t h e s e m e t h o d s i n c l u d e : -
t h e n o r t h w e s t c o r n e r method , t h e m o d i f i e d d i s t r i b u t i o n
method ( ~ o d l ) a n d t h e " e v a l u a t i o n t e c h n i q u e "
tC.Churchman 1957 : 348).
The A s s i q n m e n t Model:
The a s s i g n m e n t model of l i n e a r programming i s a
s p e c i a l c a s e o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n model . I t ~ n v o l v e s
t h e a s s i g n m e n t o f o n l y o n e man t o e a c h j o b , o p t i m i z a t i o n
w i l l r e q u i r e e i t h e r m i n i m i z a t i o n o r m a x i m i z a t i o n .
The c o m p u t a t i o n a l a l g o r i t h m p r e s e n t e d by H. W Kuhn
V' was b a s e d o n B g e r v a r y 8 s t h e r o s e m ( 1 9 1 6 ) , which i s
q u o t e d .
It t h e e l e m e n t s o f a m a t r i x a r e d i v i d e d A I ' A ~ O two
c l a s s e s by i i p r o p e r t y R , t h e n t h e minimum number of
l i n e s t h a t c o n t a i n a l l of t h e e l e m e n t s w i t h t h e
p r o p e r t y R ; i s e q u a l t o t h e maximum number o r e l e m e n t
w i t h t h e p r o p e r t y R , w l t h no two on c h e same lirle
( H w W. Kuhn 19551 ,
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The f o l l o w i r l g s t e p s c o u l d b e u s . 5 t o s o l v e a n
a s s i g n m e n t p r o b l e m t o r m i n i m i z i n g :
Reduce e a c h co lumn by t h e s m a l l e s t f i g u r e i n
t h a t co lumn.
Reduce e a c h row by t h e s m a l l e s t f i g u r e i n t h a t
row.
C o v e r a l l t n e z e r o s i n t h e new m a t r i x b y t h e
minimum p o s s i b l e number o f l i n e s .
Compare t h e number o f l i n e s w i t h t h e number o f
a s s i g n m e n t s t o b e made, I$' t h e rrumber o f l i n e s
e q u a l s t h e number o f a s s i g ? n , e n t s t o b e made, g o
t o s t e p 6.
R e p e a t s t e p s 3 and 4 u n t i l t h e number o f l i n e s
c o v e r i n g t h e z e r o s e q u a l s t h e number of
a s s i g n m e n t t o b e made,
When t h e number o f l i n e s e q u a l s t h e number o f
a s s i g n m e n t s t o be made, t h e a c t ~ ~ l a s s i g n m e n t
c a n b e made by:
~ s s i g n i n g t o a n y z e r o which i s u n i q u e t o b o t h
a co lumn a n d a row
~ s i i g n i n g t o a n y z e r o which i s u n i q u e t o a
c o l u m n o r a r o w .
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( c ) I g n o r i n g a s s i g n m e n t s a l r e a d y made , r e p e a t
r u l e b u n t i l a l l a s t i q n m e n t s a r e made:
7. C a l c u l a t e t h e t o t a l d i s t a n c e o r c o s t o f t h e
f i n a l a s s i g n m e n t .
T h e a s s i g n m e n t m o d e l h a s p r o v e d v e r y u s e f u l i n
t h e a s s i g n m e n t o f s a l e s m e n t o t e r r i t o r i e s a n d e n g i n e e r s
t o s t a t i o n s ,
2.3.3 I n v e n t o r y M o d e l s :
I n v e n t o r y t h e o r y d e a l s w i t h t h r e e d e c i s i o n s :
1. What i s t h e b e s t q u a n t i t y o f a n item L O o r d e r
e a c h t i m e a n o r d e r i s p l a c e d ?
2. When s h o u l d t h e o r d e r b e p l a c e d ?
3. What q u a n t i t y o f t h e i t e m , if a n y , o v e r t h e
e x p e c t e d r e q u i r e m e n t s s h o u l d b e h e l d a s a s a f e t y
s t o c k i n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f v a r i a t i o n i n demand. '
T h e secow ' i ' % C ~ s o n f o r t h e e x i s t e n c e o f i n v e n t o r i e s
i s e c o n o m i c . V e r y o f t e n t h e r e a r e e c o n o m i e s t o be
g a i n e d f r o m c a r r y i n g l a r g e l e v e l s of i n v e n t o r y . T h e s e
' e c o n o m i e s c a n r e s u l t f r o m p r i c e b r e a k s , t r a n s p o r t rates,
o r s i m p l y f r o m t h e n o r m a l cc. .st o f p l a c i n g a n o r d e r .
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H o l d i n g i n v e n t o r i e s h e l p t o s p r e e d t h e c o s t o f
p l a c i n g a n o r d e r o v e r a l a r g e number o f u n i t s i n
t h e o r d e r , -
N z e l i b e ( 1 9 9 0 ) h o l d s t h e o p i n i o n t h a t a m a j o r
o b j e c t i v e o f s o u n d i n v e n t o r y managemen t i s t h a t o f
m i n i m i s i n g t o t a l i n v e n t o r y c o s t s , Two t y p e s o f t h e s e
c o s t s a r e o r d e r i n g c o s t a n d c a r r y i n g c o s t . o r d e r i n g
c o s t s a r e c o s t s i n c u r r e d i n p l a c i n g a n o r d e r w h i l e
c a r r y i n g c o s t s a r e i n c u r r e d i n t h e p r o c e s s o f h o l d i n g
i n v e n t o r y .
The e c o n o m i c o r d e r q u a n t i t y mode l EOQ i s o n e o f
t h e o l d e s t m e t h o d s o f s c i e n t i f i c i n v e n t o r y c o n t r o l ,
The EOQ mode l a s s u m e s t h a t t h e demand i s c e r t a i n , t h a t
t h e r e i s a known c o n s t a n t p r i c e p e r u n i t ; t h a t t h e r e
i s a known c o n s t a n t c a r r y i n g a n d o r d e r i n g c o s t s . he
b a s i c Eon f o r m u l a e a r e g i v e n b e l o w :
T o t a l c o s t s p e r annum - O r d e r i n g cos t p e a + c a r r y i n g
c o s t P , a
o r d e r i n g c o s t I o r d e r c o s t p e r o r d e r x number o f
o r d e r s p , a
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Number o f o r d e r s I Annual demand
O r d e r q u a n t i t y
EOQ = COD
cc
where Co o r d e r i n g c o s t p e r o r d e r .
C c = C a r r y i n g c o s t p e r i t e m p e r annum
D Demand p e r annum.
A c c o r d i n g t o M c c l a i n e t a 1 ( 1 9 8 7 1 i n v e n t o r y i s
c o n t r o l l e d by p l a c i n g a r e p l e n i s h m e n t o r d e r whenever
i n v e n t o r y f a l l s be low t h e r e o r d e r l e v e l .
2.3.4 Q u e u i n g ~ o d e l s
Q u e u e s o c c u r whenever a r r i v i n g c u s t o m e r s must
s e e k s e r v i c e a t o n e o r more s t a t i o n s ( c h a n n e l s ,
s e r v e r s ) , e a c h o f which p e r f o r m s o n e o r more t a s k s
( t h a t i s t h e r e a r e o n e o r more s t a g e s ) (W. F a b r y c k y
e t a 1 1987 : 3 9 6 ) . I n s t a t i s f y i n g t h e demand o n t h e
s y s t e m , t h e d e c i s i o n maker must e s t a b l i s h t h e l e v e l
of s e r v i c e c a p a c i t y by a l t e r i n g t h e s e r v i c e r a t e a t
e x i s t i n g c h a n n e l s o r by a d d i n g o r d e l e t i n g c h a n n e l s .
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I n g e n e r a l , q u e u e s f o r m when t h e r a t e of a r r i v a l
o f i tems r e q u i r i n g s e r v i c e i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e r a t e o f
s e r v i c e . Some o f t h e t y p i c a l s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h
q u e u e i n g t h e o r y m i g h t b e a p p l i e d i n c l u d e s h o p c o u n t e r s
w h e r e c u s t o m e r s a r r i v e a t v a r y i n g i n t e r v a l s r e q u i r i n g
s e r v i c e t h a t t a k e s v a r i a b l e t i m e , t e l e p h o n e e a c h a n g e s ,
p a r t s stores a n d a i r p o r t run -ways .
T h e e l e m e n t s o f a q u e u e i n g s y s t e m i n c l u d e t h e
a r r i v a l p o p u l a t i o n , t h e q u e u e o r w ~ ~ t i n g l i n e a n d t h e
s e r v i c e f a c i l i t y . T h e q u e u e i n g m o d e l i s d e s i g n e d t o
f o r e s t a l l a n y l o s s of a n y member o f t h e a r r i v a l
p o p u l a t i o n by r e d u c i n g t h e t i m e b e t w e e n a r r i v a l a n d
s e r v i c e .
M o d e l s h a v e b e e n f o r m u l a t e d t o t a c k l e b o t h s i n g l e -
c h a n n e l w a i t i n g l i n e s y s t e m s a n d m u l t i p l e c h a n n e l
s y s t e m s . F o r i n s t a n c e , f o r a s i n g l e - c h a n n e l s y s t e m ,
t h e t o t a l s y s t e m c o s t p e r p e r i o d w i l l b e t h e sum o f t h e
w a i t i n g c o s t f o r t h e p e r i o d a n d t h e s e r v i c e r a c i l i t y
. . c o s t f o r t h e p e r i o d .
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TC I WC + FC
w h e r e TC .. T o t a l s y s t e m c o s t
WC a W a i t i n g cost
FC I F a c i l i t y cos t
The w a i t i n g cos t , w c i s g i v e n b y
wc a cw (S/A)
w h e r e CW I C o s t o f w a i t i n g p e r a n i t p e r p e r i o d
S a Number of p e r i o d s t o c o m p l e t e o n e
s 2 r v i c e
A I Number o f p e r i o d s b e t w e e n a r r i v a l s .
F a c i l i t y c o s t , FC = Cf ( ' I S )
w h e r e Cf S e r v i c e f a c i l i t y c o s t f o r s e r v i c i n g o n e
u n i t .
T h u s T c
A minimum cos t s e r v i c e i n t e r v a l may b e f o u n d by
d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o S , s e t t i n g the r e s u l c
e q u a l t o z e r o , a n d s o l v i n g f o r S t o a r r i v e a t - S = C f A S L A
CW
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2 .3 .5 N e t w o r k A n a l y s i s
N e t w o r k p l a n n i n g m e t h o d s p l a y a v e r y i m p o r t a n t
r o l e i n p r o j e c t c o - o r d i n a t i o n . T h e u n i t e d S t a t e s
Yavy w a s f a c e d w i t h a n immense c o - o r d i n a t i o n p r o b l e m
i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f p o l a r i s , t h e f i r s t w e a p o n s
s y s t e m t h a t c o u l d l a u n c h a l o n g r a n g e b a l l i s t i c
miss i l e f r o m a s u b m e r g e d s u b m a r i n e . I n o r d e r t o
c o - o r d i n a t e t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f 1 ,100 c o n t r a c t o r s , a
new m e t h o d was i n v e n t e d t o manage t h i s p r o j e c t ; t h e y
c a l l e d i t PERT - Programme E v a l u a t i o n Review T e c h n i q u e .
A t a b o u t t h e same t i m e , t h e c r i t i c a l p a t h Method (CpM)
was d e v e l o p e d a t Du pant. PERT a n d CPM w e r e r e c o g n i s e d
t o b e t h e same i d e a . pERT/CpM p l a n n i n g i s b a s e d 011 a
n e t w o r k d i a g r a m (T. 0. Uzoamaka 1976:54),
The newwork d i a g r a m Shows m a i n activities a n d
d e p e n d e n c y , a l t h o u g h n o t n e c e s s a r i l y o n a t i m e - s c a l e . I t i s a c o m b i n a t i o n o f a c t i v i t i e s , dummy
a c t i v i t i e s a n d e v e n t s i n a l o g i c a l s e q u e n c e . A r r o w s
a r e u s e d t o show p r e c e d e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p s . A p r e c e d e i l c e
r e l a t i o n s h i p s t a t e s t h a t ( f o r e x a m p l e ) a c t i v i t y A m u s t
b e c o m p l e t e d b e f o r e a c t i v i t y B c d n b e g i n . The n e t - w o r k
d i a g r a m c a n be u s e d t o i d e n t i f y p o t e n t i a l s c h e d u l l i i l g
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d i f f i c u l t i e s , t o e s t i m a t e t h e t i m e u n t i l t h e
c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t a n d t o i m p r o v e t h e
p r o j e c t s c o - o r d i n a t i o n ,
C r i t i c a l p a t h a n a l y s i s d e f i n e s t h o s e a c t i v i t i e s
w h i c h i f d e l a y e d , c a u s e a k n o c k - o n e f f e c t , d e l a y i n g
t h e e n t i r e p r o j e c t . O t h e r s n o t o n t h e c r i t i c a l p a t h *
c a r r y some " f l o a t " o r " s l a c k " m e a n i n g t h a t hey c a n be
s t a r t e d l a t e r w i t h o u t i m p a c t i n g t h e o v e r a l l t i m e s c a l e ,
The c r i t i c a l p a t h c a n b e d e r i v e d u s i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g
s t e p s :
1. L i s t o u t a l l trre a i t i v i t i e s t h a t m:.ke up t h e
p r o j e c t ;
2. E s t i m a t e t h e d u r a t i o n o f t h e a c t i v i t i e s ;
3 . O r d e r t h e a c t i v i t i e s , a n d s - \ I wk.ich comes b e f o r e
w h i c h , F o r e x a m p l e , c o r k i n g c a n r ~ o t s t a r t b e f o r e
F e r m e n t a t i o n
4 . Draw t h e n e t w o r k and a s s i y n n u m b e r s t o t h e
e v e n ~ s ;
5 . P r e p a r e a c h a r t o r t a b l e s h o w i n g B a r l i e s t
s t a r t 1ES) a n d E a r l i e s t F l o a t ( E F ) ; L a s e s t
S t a r t I ; L S ) a n d L a t e s t F l o a t (LE'), a r ~ d t h e n
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c o m p l e t e t h e T o t a l F l o a t ( T T ) F r e e F l o a t ( F F ) t o
e n a b l e u s d e t e r m i n e t h e c r i t i c a l p a t h .
6 . Determine t h e c r i t i c a l p a t h .
T h z c r i t i c a l p a t h i s t h e l o n g e s t p a t h i n t h e
n e t w o r k , t h e o n e t h a t d e t e r m i n e s t h e p r o j e c t
c o m p l e t i o n t i ~ e . T h e r e i s no s l a c k f o r a n y a c t i v i t y
i n t h i R ~ a t h (J. M c C l a i n 1 9 8 7 : 5 1 ) .
2.3.6 Game T h e o r r
T h i s was d e v e l o p e d b y J o Von Neumarinc I t i s
c o n c e r n e d w i t h c o m p e t i t i v e s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h t w o or
more p a r t i c i p a n t s a r e i n c o n f l i c t . E a c h o f t h e
p a r t i c i p a n t c o f t h e c o n f l i c t c o n t r o l s some o f , b u t
n o t a l l , t h e a c t i o n s w h i c h c a n t a k e p l a c e . T h i s i s
a s i t u a t i o n w h e r e a d e c i s i o n m a k e r w i s h e s t o a c h i e v e
some o b j e c t i v e . The i n d i v i d u a l s e l ec t s a s t r a t e g y
f r o m among t h e a l t e r n a t i v e a v a i l a b l e . T h i s s t r a t e g y ,
t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e c h a l r c e e v e n t s o r s t a t e o f n a t u r e
w h i c h o c c u z a n d t h e c o m p e t i t i v e o r z , ~ n t e r s t r a t e g y
e m p l o y e d by t h e o p p o n e n t , d e t e r m i n e s t h e d e g r e e of
w h i c h t h e i n d i v i d m a l o b t a i n s o r f a i l s t o o b t a i n t h e
c h o s e n o b j e c t i v e ( L O B B i t t e l e t a1 1 3 5 0 : 6 3 8 ) .
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The mos t p r a c t i c a l arid s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n
o f game t l ~ e o r y h a s b e e n t o p r o v i d e a c o n c e p t i o n a l
and r a t i o n a l f r a m e w o r k f o r d e c i s i o n a n a l y s i s . Game
m o d e l s a l l o w f o r r e p e a t e d d e c i s i o n s t o r e f l e c t
c o m p e t i t i v e i n t e r a c t i o n o F a b r y c k y ( 1987: 139)
c l a s s i f i e d game m o d e l s i n t o two g e n e r a l t y p e s namely:
Z e r o - sum game i n w h i c h o n e p l a y e r ' s g a i n s a r e e q u a l
t o t h e losses o f t h e o t h e r p l a y e r ; t h e non - z e r o - sum
game w h e r e o n e p l a y e r e s g a i n i s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y a n o t h e r
p l a y e r ' s l o s s ,
2.4 The Main P i l l a r s o f O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h
The q u a n t i t a t i v e a p p r a c h t o d e c i s i o n making rests
upon c e r t a i n f u n d a m e n t a l c o n c e p t s . The c o n c e p t s h a v e
b e e n c l a s s i f i e d i n d i f f e r e n t ways by d i f f e r e n t wr i t e r s .
' Loomb's ( 1 9 7 0 : 4 8 ) g r o u p i n g of t h e b a s i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s
o f o p e r a t i o h s r e s e a r c h i n t o f o u r m a i n p i l l a r s a s f o l l o w s :
s y s t e m o r i e n t a t i o n , i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y team w o r k ,
s c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d , a n d t h e u s e o f mode l s .
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( a ) The s y s t e m O r i e n t a t i o n : T h i s v i e w d e m a n d s o f
t h e m e n a g e r a v e r y g o o d k n o w l e d g e o f t t i ,e r e l a t i o n s h i p s
among t h e c o m p o n e n t u n i t s o f t h e o r g a n i s a t i o n a n d a
d e m o n s t r a b l e a b i l i t y a n d d i s c i p l i n e t o i n v e s t i g a t e a
p r o b l e m t h o r o u g h l y f r o m t h e p o i n t of v i e w o f t h e o v e r -
a l l s y s t e m of w h i c h t h e p r o b l e m i s b u t a p a r t . H e n c e ,
p r i o r t o t h e * i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a n y s o l u t i o n , o b t a i n e d
t h r o u g h q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s , a t a n y l e v e l of t h e
o r g a n i s a t i o n , a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f how t h e c o m p o n e n t p a r t s
o f t h e o r g a n i s a t i o n c a n r e a c t t o t h e s o l u t i o n s h o u l d b e
made. T h e r e s h o u l d b e c o h e s i o n a n d s y n e r g y i n t h e
s y s t e m .
Depa r t rne i l t l e v e l p r o b l e m s o l v i n g s h o u l d b e
i n t e g r a t e d a n d made t o c o n f o r m w i t h t h e s u p e r o r d i n a t e
g o a l s o f t h e o r g a n i s a t i o n . However , t h e s c o p e f o r t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s y s t e m s a p p r o a c h i s c o n s t r a i n e d by
c e r t a i n f a c t o r s s u c h a s t i m e , c o s t , i n f o r m a t i o n a n d
f e a s i b i l i t y a n d t h e t e n d e n c y i s f o r t h e m a n a g e r s t o
s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m i n p a r t s a n d i n s e q u e n c e . T h i s i s
known a s sub - o p t i m i z a t i o n ( a s o p p o s e d t o o v e r a l l
o p t i m i z a t i o n w h i c h i s t h e g o a l o f o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h
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and t h e compe ten t Manager knows when t o a p p l y o r
a v o i d i t .
( b ) I n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y Teamwork: A s loomba r i g h t l y
o b s e r v e d , modern-day p rob lems a r e m u l t i - d i a m e n s i o n a l ,
r a t h e r t h a n s i n g l e d i a m e n s i o n a l and thesame p rob lems
c a n be viewed d i f f e r e n t l y w i t h b e n e f i c i a l r e s u l t s by
p e r s o n s f rom d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n e s , I t becomes
n e c e s s a r y t o s u b j e c t l a r g e and complex p rob lems t o
a n a l y s i s by a team of s p e c i a l i s t s drawn from many
d i s c i p l i n e s and wa lks of l i f e i n o r d e r t o p r o d u c e
c r o s s - f e r t i l i z a t i o n of i d e a s , t a k e a d v a n t a g e of
accumula t ed knowledge and e n s u r e t h a t a l l r a m i f i c a t i o n s
of t n e prob lem have b e e n c o n s i d e r e d . T h i s p o o l i n g of
s p e c i a l i z e d t a l e n t s a f f o r d team members t h e o p p o r t u n i t y
of coming up w i t h b e t t e r o r improved s o l u t i o n s t o
p rob lems ,
( c ) The s c i e n t i f i c Method: S c i e n t i f i c method i n
a number of s t e p s . Seven : ; t e p s of s c i e n t i f i c method a r e
e x p l a i n e d below:
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1. Observing the Problem Environment: A persistent
stockout, for example, is a pointer to the fact that
some thing is definitely wrong with a firmqs inventory
management. This calls for close observation to
ascertain factors leading to the stockout with a view
to taking corrective measures. Observation, thus is e
usually preceded by a awareness of a problem.
ii, Analysing and Defining the problem: Having
observed the existence of a problem in the organisation.
The next step involves statement of the objective of the
research and this entails a clear definition of the
problem in terms of type and form of solution. There
is a need for clear definition of the problem so as not
to dwell on the symptoms of the problem but to recognise
the real causes of the problem. Take for example, dwind-
ling revenue, (Ewurum, lmaga) 1998:226), is t~ot the main
problem, but it is symptomatic of a more fundamental
problem which must be investigated and defined. ~ l s o ,
it does happen that there are several sub - problems bearing on a given problem. ~lthough, it is not always
possible to handle the related problems. Simultaneously
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produce m i s l e a d i n g r e s u l t s , a s i t u a t i o n r e f e r r e d a s
g a r b a g e i n g a r b a g e o u t .
V. Deve lop ing And T e s t i n g The Somution: Data
c o l l e c t i o n o v e r , t h e r e s e a r c h e r m a n i p u l a t e s t h e model
t o g e t t h e mor t p r e f e r r e d ( o p t i m a l ) s o l u t i o u t o t h e *
problem. And s i n c e t h i s s o l u t i o n depends on t h e mrdel
and t h e i n p u t d a t a , t h e y need t o be t e s t e d i r r o r d e r t o
d e t e r m i n e t h e a c c u r a c y and c o m p l e t e n e s s of t h e i n p u t
d a t a . T e s t i n g i n v o l v e s c o l l e c t i n g more i n r o r m a t i o n
f rom a d i f f e r e n t s o u r ~ e and compar ing i t w i t h c n e i n p u t
d a t a . S c a t i s t i c a l t e s t of s i g n i r i c a n c e i s a p p l i e d t o
see i f t h e d i f f e r e n c e be tween t h e t w o , e t s of dapa ( t h e
i n p u t d a t a and t h e a d d i t i o n a l d a t a c o l l e c t e d f o r
c o m p a r b t i v e p u r p o s e ) c a n be a t t r i b u t e d t o chance . I f
t h e r e s u l t o f t h e t e s t shows t h a t t h e r e i s a s i g n i f i c a n t
d i f f e r e n c e , e f f o r t w i l l b e made t, modify and i u i p r o v e
t h e i n p u t d a t a . I f , on t h c o t h e r hand , t h e d a t a a r e
c o r r e c t , b u t t h e r e s u l t s a r e i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e
p rob lem, i t p r o b a b l y means t h a t t h e model c h o s e n f o r
t h e p rob lem i s n o t a p p r o p r i a t e one . T h i s n e c e s s i t a t e s
a r e - e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e model t o a s c e r t a i n if i t a c t u a l l y
r e p r e s e n t s r e a l i t y .
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v i e , A n a l y s i n g The R e s u l t s : The t a s k i n t h i s p h a s e
c a l l s f o r a s s e s s i n g t h e g e n e r a l a n d s p e c i f i c i m p l i c a t i o n s
o f t h e c h o s e n s o l u t i o n t o o v e r a l l h e a l t h and h a r m o n i o u s
f u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e c r g a n i s a t i o n . The s o l u t l o n may
i n v o l v e t h e u s e o f s t a f f and f a c i l i t i e s of some u n i t s
o f t h e o r g a n i s a t i o n o r i t may i n v o l v e t h e o r g a n i s a t i o n . i n some c o s t s f o r t h e p u r c h a s e o f e q u i p m e n t o r f o r t h e
r e c r u i t m e n t o r r e t r a i n i n g of s t a f f . T h e s e i m p l i c a t i o n s
mus t b e w e i g h e d a n d a n a l y s e d b e f o r e t h e s o l u t i o n i s
i m p l e m e n t e d .
F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e s e n s i t i v i t y of t h e s o l u t i o n t o
c h a n g e s i n t h e i n p u t and t h e model must f e a t u r e i n t h i s
a n a l y s i s . Q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s ( O R ) o r m o d e l s a r e n o t
a f i x e d f o r m u l a r t o be u n i f o r m l y a p p l i e d t o a l l t y p e s cf
s i t u a t i o n . Mode l s a r e d e s i g n e d t o work u n d e r c e r t a i n
c o n d i t i o n s . S u p p o s e a g a s o l i n e s t a t i o n w i s h e s t o
d e t e r m i n e t h e o p t i m a l number o f s e r v i c e p o i n t s t h a t
i s t h e number t h a t w i l l b a l a n c e t h e c o s t s t o t h e c u s t o m e r s
( o f w a i t i n g ) and t h e s t a t i o n ( o f i d l e f a c i l i t i e s ) . The
s t a t i o n m a n a s e r sets up a q u e u i n g model and p r c c e e d s t o
c a l c u l a t e t h e n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s o f t h e o p e r a t i n g
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ( s u c h as mean number o f c u s t o m e r s i n
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t h e q u e u e / s y s t e m , mean w a i t i n g t i m e i n the q u e u e ,
u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r ) . The manager c a n n o t a d h e r e
s t r i c t l y t o t h e s o l u t i o n a t a l l t imes i n c l u d i n g , s a y
C h r i s t m a s p e r i o d , w i t h o u t l o s i n g o u t t o c o m p e t i t o r s ,
H e s h o u l d b e p r e p a r e d t o a l t e r and m o d i f y some o f
t h e s e o p e r a t i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d a s s u m p t i o n s t h a t
were u s e d t o ' c o n s t r u c t t h e model t o r e f l e c t c h a n g e s i n
t h e e n v i r o n m e n t , S e n s i t i v i t y ( o r p o s t o p t i m a l i t y )
a n a l y s i s s h o u l d be made t o a s c e r t a i n t h e e x t e n t o f
c h a n g e i n t h e s o l u t i o n i n r e s p o n s e t o c h a n q e s i n t h e
model a n d i n p u t d a t a .
v i i , l m p l e m e n t a t i o t r : T h i s is ttic f ~ ~ l d l s t e p i l l t h e
s c i e n t i f i c method and i t r e q u i r e s the i ~ r v o l vement of
t h e o p e r a t i n g m a n a g e r s i n t n e s o l u t i o n . A g a i n , t h i s
i s n o t g o i n g t o b e a n e a s y t a s k , e s p e c i a l 1 y a s t h e
o p e r a t i n g m a n a g e r s a r e n o t n o r m a l l y l t r v o l v e d i n a l l
t h e s o l u t i o n s t a 3 e s or n o t p r o p e r l y o r i e r l t e d i r r
o p e r a t i o n s R c s e a r c h / ~ a n a g e m e ~ r t s c i e n c e . Orrh i s n o t
l i k e l y t o o b t a i n t o t a l commitment t o t h e p r e s c r i b e d
s o l u t i o n from a b e h a v i o u r a l i s t , The n e e d t o s e l l t n e
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s o l u t i o n w i t h p r o p e r n o t e s o n t h e a s s u m p t i o n s o r
c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h t h e s o l u t i o n i s d e s i g n e d t o
work and a t t e n d a n t w e a k n e s s e s , becomes i m p a r a t i v e .
By t h i s , t h e manager i s made a w a r e o f the r i s k s
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e model , C l o s e
m o n i t o r i n g of t h e i m p a c t o f t h e s o l u t i o n w i l l i n d i c a t e . where c h a n g e s a r e d e s i r e d t o i m p r o v e t h e w o r k i n g of
t h e m o d e l s .
Though , t h e p r a c t i c a l b u s i n e s s w o r l d i s a l w a y s i n
a s t a t e o f f l u x ; c h a n g e s a r e t a k i n g p l a c e a t f r e q u e n t
i n t e r v a l s , c a l l i n g f o r q u i c k r e s o l u t i o n o f p r o b l e m s .
The m a n a g e r may n o t h a v e t h e t i m e and o t h e r r e s o u r c e s
t o a d d r e s s t h e i s s u e s i n t h e c o n v e n i e n t l y and n e a t l y
d e l i n e a t e d p r o c e s s p r e s c r i b e d by t h e s c i e n t i f i c method,
I n s u c h a s i t u a t i o n , t h e s c i e n t i f i c of o p e r a t i o n s .
R e s e a r c h b o i l s down t o a l o g i c a l and r a t i o n a l a p p r o a c h
t o p r o b l e m s o l v i n g Wi th a c l e a r r e c o g n i t i o n of t h e f a c t
t h a t a l l t h e d a t a may e i t h e r n o t b e a v a i l a b l e o r a r e
i m p o s s i b l e t o g e t w i t h i n t h e c o n s t r a i n t s o f t i m e and
money (Loamba, 1978:38). O p e r a t i o n R e s e a r c h g o a l o f
o v e r a l l o p t i m i z a t i o n i s t h u s made t o g i v e way t o a
p h i l o s o p h y o f s a t i s f i c i n g i n o r d e r t o e r r s u r e t i m e l y
r e a c t i o n t o o r g a n i s a t i o n a l i s s u e s .
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( d ) The u s e o f M o d e l s : M o d e l l i n g i s n o t a new
phenomenon . I t f e a t u r e s p r o m i n e n t l y i n t h e l i v e s o f
i n d i v i d u a l s a n d o r g a n i s a t i o n s . A b u d g e t , f o r e x a m p l e ,
i s a mode l t h a t a c ~ s a s a g u i d e i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f
r e v e n u e a n d t h e s p e n d i n g o f r e s o u r c e s i.n a f u t u r e t i m e
p e r i o d . A j o b d e s c r i p t i o n e a r l y p r e s c r i b e s t h e
. o r g a n i s a t i o n e s e x p e c t a t i o n i n t e r n s o f p e r f o r m a n c e o n
a g i v e n j o b . A b a l a n c e s h e e t i s a mode l t h a t g i v e s a t
a p o i q t i n t i m e , t h e f i n a n c i a l s t a t e o f a n o r g a n i s a t i o n .
M O < ~ ~ S h a v e b e e n c l a s s i f i e d i n d i f f e r e n t w a y s , F o r
e x a m p l e , t h e r e i s a s c h e m a t i c m o d e l w h i c h 1 s a d r a w i ~ l g
o r p i c t u r e t h a t s h o w s how c e r t a i ~ l d e v i c e s f u n c t i o n .
T h e r e i s a l s o a p h y s i c a l m o d e l u s u a l l y e m p l o y e d i n
a r c h i t e c t u r e t o d e p i c t a b u i l d i n g t o b e c o n s t r u c t e d ,
p e o p l e i n b u s i n e s s a r e f a m i l i a r w i t h f i l l a n c i a 1 m o d e l s
l i k e t h e b a l a n c e s h e e t a n d t h e i ~ l c o m e s t a t e m e n t w h i c h
d e s c r i b e a s p e c t s o f t h e f i n a n c i a l h e a l t h o f a b u s i n e s s .
O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h m o d e l s a r e M a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l s w h i c h
g i v e s t h e 1 4 a t h e m a t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n v a r i a b l e s
i n a p r o b l e m s i t u a t i o n , s u c h a s p r o b l e m s r e l a t e d t o
f i n a n c e , p r o d u c t i o n a n d m a r k e t i n g . T h e y a r e u s u a l l y
s t a t e d a s e q u a l i t i e s o r i n e q u a l i t i e s .
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What makes O p e r d t i o n s R e s e a r c h Mode l s d i f f e r e n t
f r o m o t h e r m o d e l s i s t h e i n v o l v e m e n t of many v a r i a b l e
a t o n e t i m e i n a p r o b l e m s i t u a t i o n a n d the u s e o f t h e
t e c h n i q u e s o f M a t h e m a t i c s t o a t t a c k complex p r o b l e m s
and o b t a i n o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s , s o m e t h i n g t h a t would b e
d i f f i c u l t t o a c h i e v e w i t h c o n v e n t i o n a l t o o l s .
~ o d e l s make i t p o s s i b O e f o r m a n a g e r s t o a n a l y s e and
u n d e r s t a n d a s y s t e m v e r y w e l l . I n v i e w o f t h e d i s a s t e r
o f t e n a t t e n d a n t w i t h c o n d u c t i n g a c t u a l e x p e r i m e n t s o n r e a l
o b j e c t s , m a n a g e r s , t h r o u g h t h e u s e of m o d e l s a r e p e r m i t t e d
t o make ' r e a l ' m i s t a k e s w h i l e e x p e r i m e n t i ~ l g and a t t e m p t i i l g
t o g a i n i n s i g h t s i n t o r e a l l i f e s i t u a t i o n s . T h i s i s
c o n s i d e r e d t h e most i m p o r t a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n of o p e r a t i o n s
R e s e a r c h Model . O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h m o a e l s a s o p o s e d
t o v e r b a l m o d e l s h a v e t h e a d v a n t a g e t h a t g i v e n t h e same
a s s u m p t i o n s , d i f f e r e n t p e r s o n s w i l l a r r i v e a t t h e same
c o n c l u s i o n (Loomba, 1978:39).
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2.5 A r e a s o f ~ p p l i c a t i o n o f Q u a r i t i t a t l v e K e t h o d s - V i r t u a l l y e v e r y k i n d o f b u s i n e s s h a s w i t n e s s e d
a s u c c e s s f u l a p i , l i c a t i o n o r ( q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s .
D i f f e r e n t ma : I a , ; e r s a r e f a c e d g i t h d i f f t . r e i l t p r o b l e m s
b u t t h e f a c t r e m a i n s t n a t t n o u q h two p r o b l e m s m i g h t
d i f f e r i n c o l i t e n t , t n e y o f t e n h a v e t r i e same f o r m .
w Some of t h e a r e a s w h e r e o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h h 3 s b e e n
s u c c n s s f u l l y a p p l i e d a r e a s f o l l o w s :
p r o d u c t i o n : I n p r o d u c t i o n m a n a g e m e n t , tire a r e a s
i i l c l u d e : p r o d u c t i o n p l a r i r l i nq and s c t r e d u l i l ly ;
a l l o c a t i o n o f p r o d u c t i o n o r d e r t o d l f f e r e i ~ t p l a n t s o r
d e p a r t m e n t s o:i tile b a s i s o f p r o d u c t i o n o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o a
C O ~ C S ; a c h e d u l iny o f m a i n t a i i a . l c e a n d r e p 1 a c e m e n c o f
e q u i p m e n t ; a s s e m b l i n g l i n e b a l a n c i n g a n d a l l o c a t i o n of
f a c i l i t i e s and p e r s o n n e l ; r aw m a t e r i a l ;i , ld i n - p r o c e s s
p u r c h a s i n g : T h i s i n c l u d e s : - d e v e l o p m e n t o f r u l e s f o r
b u y i n g s u p p l i e s w i t h s t a b l e o r s i q ~ l i f i c a r i t l y v d r y i n g
p r i c e s ; d e t e r ~ m i n a t i o r i o f q u d l l t i t i ~ a , t . ~ n l i r l ( j <lrl(i S O U L . C ~
o f p u r c n ~ s e ; nl3ke-or-buy d e c i s . i o n s o f p s r t s a n d
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c o r r i p c r l e n t s ; p u r c P . , ~ s e - b ~ - l ~ a s e decisions o n v e h i c l e s
a n d e q u l p m e r l t ; a n d s p a r e p a r t s s t o c k i n q r e q u i r e m e n t s
a s w e l l a s 9 r o ~ l e r n s asscciated w l t h d e t e r i o r d t i o n a n d
s h r i n k a g e (C.T. H o r n g r e n 1900:43).
I n v e s t m c l l t arid F l n n n c r : ~ i e a s u n d e r i n v e s t m e n t
a n d f i n a n c e i n c l u d e : c a s h - f l o w a-a: y s l s ; l o n g -
r a n q e c a p i t a l r e q u i r e r c e n t s , a l t c r n d t i v e . ~ n v e s t m r n t s ,
a n d s o u r c e s cC c a p i t a l ; d e v e l o p m e n t of a u t c m ~ t e d d , 3 t a
p r o c e s s i n q s y s t e m , a c c o d - l t i l i j s y s t e m s , a n d a u d l t i n g
p ~ o c e d u r e s ; d l v e r s i f i c a t i o n a n d d c q . ~ . -,, !.; i > n d e c i s i o n s ;
s t o c k a n d Bond p o r t f o l i o s e l e c t i o n ; ~ u d g e t i n g p l a n n i n g ,
a n d c o n t r o l ; a n d f i n a n c i a l f o r e c a s t i n g . i i e search a n d L e v t t l o p m e r r t : 'I 'hl s i r r c l u d e s
e v a l u a t i o n of dl t e r ~ l a t i v e d e s i j i ~ r ; ; d c t c r m i ~ ; a t i o n o f
a r e a s o f r e s e ~ i r c h needed a n d t e c h n o l o g i c a l z o r e c a s t i n q ;
s e l e c t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l p r o j e c t s ; a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s
b e t w e e n r e s e a r c h a n d d c v e l ~ p m e n t p r o j e c t s ; a41d c o - o r d i n a -
t i o n a n d m a : l a g e m e n t c o n t r c l p r o c e d u r e s f o r c o m p l e x
r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t p r o j e c t s ( L , R , R i t t e l 1 9 9 0 : 6 3 4 ) ,
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s t r a t e g i e s ; p r o d u c t s e l e c t i o n a n d t ~ m i n q of new
p r o d u c t s ; f o r e c a s t i n q demand; p r i c i n g a n d b i d d i n g
s t r a t e g i e s ; number o f s a l e s p e o p l e , w a r r a n t y a n d
c u s t o m e r s e r v i c e s t r a t e g i e s ; s p a c e a l l o c a t i o n f o r
d i s p l a y a n d s t o c k a c c e s s i b i l i t y .
p e r s o n n e l : T h i s i n c l u d e s s e l e c t i o n a ~ l d r e c r u i t i n y
p o l i c i e s of p e r s o n n e l ; a n a l y s i s o f f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g
l a b o u r t u r n o v e r , a b s e n t e e i s m and q r i e v a n c e s ; a n d
d e v e l o p m e n t o f i n c e n t i v e ; p r o d u c t i v i t y i m p r o v e m e n t ,
a n d p e r f o r m a n c e m e a s u r e m e n t s c h e m e s .
G o v e r n m e n t : Operations r e s e a r c h t-,its b e e n a p p l i e d
by g o v e r n m e n t i t 1 t h e a r e a s : a n a l y s i s o f a . i r , r d - i l ,
h i g h w a y , a n d wa te r -wdy t r a r i s p o r t a t ~ o r r s y s terns, ~ n c l u a l n q
r o u t e s ; d e v e l o p m e n t of w a s t e p i c k u p arid d l s p o s a l s c r a t e ~ i e s ,
e c o n o m i c p l a i m i n g ; c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s a n d ev ;* l u a t i o n
o f m i l i t a r y w e a p o n s a n d s t r a t e g i e s (3 .K & i t c e $ 1990:634).
Q u a l l t i t d t i v e m e t h o d s are v e r s a t i l e i n u s a q e n o t
orl1.y i n t h e a r e d s m e n t i c f l e d a b o v e .
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T h i s s t u d y i s b a s e d o n t h e s c i e n t i f i c mal lagemeri t
t h e o r y o f F e d e r i c k T a y l o r . T a y l o r d e f i n e d S c i e n t i f i c
M a n a g e m e n t a s " k n o w i n g e x a c t l y w h a t y o u w a n t m c r l t o d o ,
a n d t h e n s e e i n g t h a t t h e y d o i t i n t h e b e s t a n d
c h e a p e s t way: A l t h o u g h h i s a c t u a l s t u d y i s a m e t h o d o f
I
j o b s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n a n d a n e x a m p l e o f t h e a p p l i c a t i o n
o f i n c e n t i v e p a y i n p r o d u c t i o n , t h e s c i e n t i f i c mr:thod
i s a c c u r a c t e l y d e s c r i b e d i n h i s w o r k , I n d e t e r m i n i n g
how much w o r k o n e man c o u l d d o i n a w o r k i n g d a y , h e
m e a s u r e d b y e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n n o t by g u e s i n g o r t h r o u g h
s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n .
T h e f o u r p r i n c i p l e s o f s c i e n t i f i c mai lagemert t a s
i d e n t i f i e a b y T a y l o r a r e :
1. D e v e l o p a s c i e n c e f o r e a c h e l e m e n t o f a m a i n
w o r k , w h i c h r e p l a c e s t h e o l d r u l e - o f - t h e t h u m b
m e t h o d .
2. S c i e n t i f i c a l l y , s e l e c t arid t h e n t r a i n , t e a c h a n d
d e v e l o p t h e w o r k m a n w h e r e a s i n t h e p a s t h e c h o s e
h i s own w o r k a n d t r a i n e d h i m s e l f a s bes t a s h e
c o u l d .
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3 . Management s h o u l d h e a r t i l y c o - o p e r a t e w i t h t h e
men s o a s t o e n s u r e a l l t h e work, b e i n g d o n e i n
a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f t h e s c i e n c e
w h i c h h a s b e e n d e v e l o p e d e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s u c h
a n o r g a n i s a t i o n i n c a r r y i n g o u t i t s b a s i c p u r p o s e .
2 .7 Summary o f t h e L i t e r a t u r e Rev iew
T h e r e s e a r c h e r r e v i e w e d t h e work uf Nwachukwu who
m e n t i o n e d t h a t d e c i s i o n i s a c h o i c e e i m e d a t a c h i e v i n g
o p t i m u m r e s u l t i n a g i v e n s i t u a t i o n . H e ideat f u r t h e r
t o s a y t h a t f o r t h e c h o i c e t o be e f f e c t i v e , i t m u s t be
c r i t i c a l l y a t l a l y s e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e
c h o i c e s .
D r u c k e r i d e n t i f i e s two t y p e s o f d e c i s i o n s d s
s t r a t e g i c a n d t a c t i c a l . ~ c c o r d i n g t o h . i m , t a c t i c a l
d e c i s i o n s a r e a l w a y s o n e d i m e n s i o n a l ; t h e s i t u a t i o n
i s g i v e n a n d t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e e v i d e n t . T h a t
s t r a t e g i c d e c i s i o n s i n v o l v e e i t h e r f i n d i r ~ q o u t w i l a t
t h e r e s o u r c e s a r e o r w h a t t h e y s h o u l d b e , Arnollq t h e s e
a r e a l l d e c i s i o n s o n b u s i n e s s o b j e c t i v e s a n d o n t h e
m e a n s t o r e a c h them.
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I t 1 s d e d u c e d t h , l t d c c i s l o n car1 be m?~dr? ~n t h r e e
d i s t i n c t p r e m i s e s n a m e l y : - d e c i s i o n - m s ~ i n q u n d e r
c e r t a i n t y ; d e c i s i o n - rnskincj utlcier r i s k ; a n d d e c i s i o n -
m a k i n g u n d e r u ~ ~ c e r t a i n t y ,
D e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s i ~ ~ v o l v c s t h r e e m a j o r
a c t i v i t y c o n s i s t s o f s e a r c h i n g t h e e r l v i r o n m c r l t f o r
c o r ~ d i t i o r l s c a l 1 incj t o r d e c i s ior.1 mliiciriq; Les iqr l ; i c t l v i t y
p o s s i b l e c o u r s e s of a c t i o n ; c h o i c e a c t i v i t y i n v o l v e s
t h e a c t u a l c h o i c e - s e l e c t i n g a p a r t i c u l a r c o u r s e of
a c t i o n f r o m amofrg t n o s e a v a i l a b l e .
M i n t z b e r y a n d h i s c o l e o g u e s c a m e u p w i t h t h r e e
p h a s e s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e a b o v e p h a s e s : T h e s e
p h a s e s i n c l u d e : t h e i . d c , r t . l f l c a t i o r r p h a s e , t rie
d e v e l o p m e n t p h a s e a n d t h e c e l e c t i o t l p h a s e .
D r u c k e r b r e a k s d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i n t o f i v e d i s t i n c t
p h a s e s a s f o l l o w s :
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( a ) g e f i n i n g t h e p r o b l e m
( b ) A n a ! y s i n g t h e p r o b l e m
( c ) D e v e l o p i n g A 1 t e r l ~ d t i v e s o l u t i o n s
( d l F i s t d i n g t h e B e s t s o l u t i o n
( e ) M a k i n g t h e d e c i s i o n e f f e c t i v e .
Operations r e s e a r c h L S d e f r r l e d b y K c o n t z e t d l
a s t h e a p p l ~ c a t l o n o f s c r e n t l f ~ c rncAthod t o t n e s t u d y
o f a l t e r ~ l s t ~ v e s i n d p r o b l e m s l t d a t i o r k , w ~ t h a v ~ e w
t o providing a q u a r l t l t a t r v e b a s r s f o r i i r r l v r n g d t a n
o p t l m u m s o l u t i o n I n t e r m s o f t l ~ e g o a l s o u y h t .
L u c y or1 ~ L S C c l ~ t r ~ D u t i o ~ l s d l a , t n a t o p r r a t i o r l s
r e s e a r c h i s t h e a t c a c k o f moder i l s c ~ e n c e o n c o m p l e x
p r o b l e m s a r i s i n g i n t h e direction a n d m a n a g e m e n t o f
l a r g e s y s t e m s o f m e n , m a c n i n e s , materials alld m o n e y ,
i n i n d u s t r y , b u s i n e s s , g o v e r n m e n t a n d d e f e n c e .
T h e c o m m i t t e e o n o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h of t ~ l e
N a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h c o u n c i l d e l i v e r e d t h e r ~ l l o w i n g
d e f i n i t i o n o f o p e r a t i o n s c e s e a r c h : O p t r ~ i t l o n s r e s e a r c h
i s t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t . , c s c i e ! k t ~ f i c r n r t r ~ o d t o t h e s t u d y
o f the o p e r a t i c n s o f l a r q e c o m p l e x o r c j a ; ~ i s h t i o i l o r
a c t i v i t i e s . T h e y w e n t f u r t h e r t o s t a t e t ~ ~ a t o p e r a t ~ c ; ~ l s
r e s e a r c h may " p r o v i d e t o p l e v e l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s w i t h a
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q u a , l t i t a t i v e b a s i s f o r d e c l s i o i l t h a t w i l l i i r ~ r e a s e t n e
e f f c c c ~ v e n e s s of s u c h o r g a n l s a t i o n i n c a r r y i n g o u r
t h e i r b a s i c p u r p o s e .
I t i s deduced ch, : t \ 4 u a l i t i t d t i v c rnc!t?cris i , lV i . l v t :
t h e u s e of m o d e l s . A m o d e l i s a r : t : p ~ , e s c ~ l ~ a t ~ o ~ r oi
. . c a l i t y ( a n o L j ( : c t , i d z a ) i n s:;nlc, fcr 'n utrier t h a i l t . h a t
o f the e b ~ t i t y ' i t s e l f . The p u t p a s t ? i . 2 t o :.lid i n
e x p l a i n i n g , u r ~ d e r s t a n d i ~ ~ j o r i m p ~ o v i n g t h e s y s t e a u n d e r
study. T h e cost comrnorll y u s e d mc-del i s r r , a the rR j t i c a l
m o d c l i n o i ) e r a t i . o n s r e s e a r c h .
T h r r - e art? d i f f c r c i l t t y p e s oL q u . i r l t l t d t i v e n r e t h ~ d s .
a r e :
P r o b a b i l i t y t h e o r y
( i ) D e c i s i o n t h e o r y
L i n e a r p r o g r a m m i n g m o d e l s :
( i ) The g r a p h i c a l m e t h o d s
( i i ) The s i m p l e x method
(iii) The t r a n s p o r t a t i o n motiel
( i v ) T h e n s s . L c l ~ l r n ( ~ : ~ t model
mi . I ,it! i n v e ~ l t o r y n o a e l s
icueuirr:,j m o d e l s
Y e t w o r k A n a l y s i s
; d m e t i . !eory .
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T i ij!., : . r t . i r . ; ~ t i v e a p p r o a c h t o d e c i s . L . c n - n , - ? ) t i . r l : ~
r e s t s u p o n c e r t a i n f u r l d a m e r r t a l C G i k C e p t s . ~ o o n ~ b g r o u p e d
t h e b a s i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h i n t . 0
f o u r m a i n p i l l a r s 2 s f o l l o w s : -
S y s t e m oris~lt-at ion: 'i'h i S v i e w . :rrn,- , . lds 0 1 ~ ? . e r i ; A , i a t j < ! r
t o see tnc? o r q . + n i s a t i o n a s w h o l e . .Th l? r~ : S ~ O U ~ C be
c o h e s i o n a: ld . , s y ~ l e r q y i l ~ tr,e s y s t e m .
a s 1,oornb r i q h t l y p u t i t . N'he:l p e o p l e f r ~ m u i f f ~ r - e n t
walks o f l l t e a n a l y s e a p a r t . ~ c u ? , l r p r o o l e m , t n e p i o d u c t i o n
of c r o s s - f e r t i l i z a t i o r l o f i d e a s i s p c s s i b l e o r d e r t o
c o r l s l d e r a l l t h e r a m i f i c s t i o r l of tire p r . c b l e n ~ . This h e l p s
t o come u p with b e t t e r o r i m p r o v e d s o l L , t l c r i .
T h e s c i e ~ l t i f i c m e t h o d : This i n c l u d e s i3 i l u m b e r o t
s t e p s : C b s e r v i l l q t h e p r o r j l e n c . r v i i - o n m e r i t
- X n a l y s i t l y a r k ( ! (1c.f i ; l i : l q t h e p r c b l en:
- 3 c v e L o p i 1 l q d m o d e l
- ~ c c l u i r i r l q I n p u t d a t a
- i ~ c v e l o p i n q a ~ l o ' i 'cbt i , ' l ; ~ ? . e sol ,it 1 ( j r l
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T h e u s e o f m o d e l s : O p e r a t i o n s research m o a e l s
a r e ath he ma tical m o d e l s w h i c h g i v e t h e r r a t h e m a t i c a l
r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n v a r i a b l e s i n d problem s i t u a t i o n ,
s u c h a s p r o b l e m s L - e l a tetl t o f i n a n c c t s , r j t ' o d u c t L O ~ A a n d
m a r k e t i n g .
What m a k e s o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h m o d e l s different
f r o m o t h e r m o d e l s i s trie i r ~ v o l v e m e n t cf many v a r i a b l e s
a t o n e t i m e in a p r o b l e m sil c l a t l o r l arld the u s e of t h e
t e c h n i q u e s of rnatrhemat i c s t o a t t .dck c o m p l e x p r o b l e m s
and o b t a i n o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s , s o m e t h i n g t h a t w o u l d b e
d i f f i c u l t t o a c h i e v e w i t h c o r l v e r l t i o ~ l a l t o o l s . b : o d c l s
make i t p o s s x b l c f o r m a r l a g e r s t o a r l a l y s e a r l ~ u n d e r s t a n d
R e s e a r c h a n d D e v e l o p m e n t , M a r k e t i n g , p e r s o n ~ ~ c l a n d
G o v e r n m e n t . Q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s a r e v e r s a t i l e i..
u s a g e n o t o n l y i l l t h e a r e a s m e n L i o n e d a b o v e .
T h e u n i t s w h e r e a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t ~ 3 t i v e
m e t h o d s i n t h e a r e a s m e n t i o n e d a b o v e were r e v i e w e d
a l s o .
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T h e r e a r c three f a c t c j r s m l l i t a t i r i g ~ ~ q d i . t ~ s t : t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n o f 4 u a n t i t a t i v e methods In p r e m i e r
B r e w e r i e s . T h e y a r e a s follows:- ~ a c k of e q u i p m e n t ;
L a c k of a ~ 2 e q u a t c t r a i r l i n q ; and 1 . a c k of' encouragement
f r o m t h e s u p e r i o r s .
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1. I r w i n C . J . a r o s s , U e s i g n F o r C e c i s l o n , ( N e w y o r k , M a c m i l l i a n , 1953), p , 2 .
2 . C. C. N w a c h u k w u , M a n a g e m e n t - T h e c r y a n d ~ r a c t i c e , ( C n i t s h a , FEP p u b l i c h e r s L t d , 1 9 8 8 ) P . 47.
3 . l b i d
4 . p , E r u c k e r , p r a c t l c e (;f ~ d ~ r , ~ g c . i n e ! l t , ( ~ o r r d o n , H e i n e m a n n , 1 9 7 9 ) , p . 3 4 6 .
5 , I b i d .
6 . C . Z. a i l l s o n a n d M . ~ l e x i s , " i 3 a s l c F r a m e w o r k s f o r E e c i s i o n s " in J o u r l ~ a ? o f
L e c i s i o n , ( V e w Y o r k , H a r p t ? r , 1960). P . 2
1 0 . H. K o o n t z , C 0 , L o n n e l l and ti. d e i h r i c h , M a n a g e m e n t (Japa.. , McGrad t i i l l Book Co. ~ t d , 1 4 d ~ ) F . 2 4 0
1 2 . A . 5. B r i n k l o e , i n M a n a q e m e r ~ t ; h Uook o f h e a d i n k ;
E d i t e d b y ti, K o o n t z a n d C . 0 ' D o n n e 1 , ( N e w Y o r k , i . : i : ; r a w t i i l l Soak C o m p a n y , 1 9 7 6 ) p . '164
1 3 . G . M. rtoccaf e r r e r d , A i l t r o d u c t i o n t o ine ear 1'roc;i arninli l j p r o c c s s c t s , ( S h i o , S o u t n d e s t e r n p u b : Lo. 1 9 6 7 ) , P. 1 5
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C . Churchman e t a l , I n t r o d u c t i o n t o C p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h ; ( V e w Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y & S o n s , 1 9 5 7 ) p . 1 8
L. B. B i t t e l , J, Ramsey ( E d i t o r s ) , E n c y c l o p e d i a of professional Management Vol, 2 ( C o n n e c t i c u t , G r o h e r
P. 0. Y w a b u o k e i , F u n d a m e t l t a l s o f S t a t i s t i c s , ( E n u g u , K o r u n a B o o k s , 1 9 8 6 ) , P. 1 3 1
a n d B e h a v i o u r , ( A u c k l a n d , McGraw H i l l I n t . Book Co., 1 9 8 0 ) -
W . J . F a b r y c k y , P . M. G h a r e atld P. E . T o r q e r s e n , A ~ ~ l i e d O ~ e r a t i o n s X e s e a r c h a n d
E,U.L. l m a g a , U.J.F. EWurum, B u s i n e s s ~ a : l a g e m e n t T o p i c s , ( O k t e k P u b l i s h e r s , 1 9 9 8 ) , p. 2 2 5 - 2 3 1
Y . P a u l Loombs, Managemen t : A i l u a n t i t r a t i v e p e r s p e c t i v e , . l e w Y o r k , M a C m i l l a n p u b l i c h i n g Co. I n c . , 1 9 7 8 ) , p . 2 7
J. E . L r l lma11, Q u a r l t i t a t i v e M e t h o d s i n Mai~?r]emerl t , ( N e w Y o r k , McGraw H i l l Book Co., 1 9 7 6 ) , p. 6 9
J. 0, M c C l a i n , L . J. Thomas , O p e r a t i o n s Managemell t - p r o d u c t i o n o f Goods a n d S e r v i c e s , ( . V e w D e l h i , P r e n t i c e H a l l , 1 9 8 7 ) . P. 6 1 1
J o u r n a l of P l a t h e m a t i c s a n d p h y s i c s V o l . x x ( 1 9 4 1 ) pp . 2 2 4 - 230 .
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A H e n d e r s e n and R . S c h l e f e r , " M a t h e m a t i c a l Proy rammirlg" , 1 1 1 H a t v a r d B u s i n e s s Heview Vol . 3 2 , N O . 3 May, 1 9 5 4
H , W , ~ u h n , "The H u n q e r i a n biethod f o r t h e A s s i g n m e n t p r o b l e m w N a v a l R e s e r v e L o g i s t i c s C i u a n t e r l y , No. 2 ~ a r c h / J u n e , 1 9 5 5
P h i l i p K o t l e r , M a r k e t i n g D e c i s i o n Makiny - Moael B u l l a l n g ~ p p - , ( L o n d o n , i a o l t , H i n c h a r t & W i n s t o n , 1 9 8 0 ) , p , 378
F , Z u w a y l i f , P o Baum, G , S m i t h , Manaqenrent Sc i e n c e : and introduction, ( N e w York , J o h n N i l e y & S o n s I n c . 1 9 7 9 ) , p . 279
C . G, 0. Y z e l i b e , Manaqement o f S m a l l S c a l e B u s i n e s s i n V i g e r i a , ( E n u g u , F o u r t h Dimens ion pub , Co. L t d ; 1 9 9 c 1 , p , 74
F i n a n c i a l T imes S p r i n q 1 9 9 3 , P. 4
J. 0 , Uzoamaka, V o t e s on C i v i l Z n q i n e e r i n q p r a c t i c e , ( B e n i n C i t y , U.O.S. Management C o n s u l t a n t s , 1 9 7 6 ) ,
E , S. B u f f a , Modern p r o d u c t i o n Management, ( N e w York, J o h n Wi ley & S o n s , 1 9 7 3 ) . P. 1 0
C . T, H o r n q r e e n , C o s t A c c o u n t i n g : A M a n a g e r i a l
E , F, d r i g h a m , F i r l a ~ l c i a l Management , T n e o r y and P r a c t i c e , ( C h i c a g o , Dryden p r e s s , 1 9 8 1 ) , P , 347
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CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH D E S I G N A X D METHODOLOGY
3.0 I n t r o d u c t i o n
I n t h i s c h a p t e r , t h e r e s e a r c h e r f o c u s e d o n t h e
f o l l o w i n g :
R e s e a r c h d e s i g n
R e s e a r c h I n s t r u r n e r ~ t s
Sample
( i ) P o p u l a t i o n
( i i ) Sample s i z e
I n s t r u m e n t a t i o n
C o l l e c t i o n o f D a t a
( i ) S e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s
( ii) P r i m a r y s o u r c e s
A n a l y s i s o f D a t a ( ~ e t h o d s )
S c o p e of t h e s t u d y
L i m i t a t i o n o f t h e s t u d y
3.1 R e s e a r c h D e s i g n
K e r l i n g e ( 1 9 6 0 : 2 7 5 ) d e f i n e s r e s e a r c h d e s i g n a s
* * t h e p l a n , s ~ r u c t u r e i and s t r a t e g y o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n
c o n c e i v e d a s t o o b t a i n a n s w e r s t o r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s
a n d t o c o n t r o l v a r i a n c e u .
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The r e s e a r c h e r a d o p t e d t h e s u r v e y r e s e a r c h method
i n t h i s s t u d y . S u r v e y r e s e a r c h d e a l s w i t h t n e p r a c t i c a l
a p p l i c a t 1011 o f t h e a l r e a d y s t a n d a r d i z e d t h e o r i e s
a v a i l a b l e i n s o c i a l and b e h a v i o u r a l s c i c ~ l c e ( 0 , M . Odo
1992: 4 2 ) .
The d e s i g n was c r o s s - s e c t ~ c i l a l i : ~ I l a t u r e . C r o s s
s e c t i o n a l s u r v e y s a r e u s e d t o c o l l e ~ ~ d a t a a t o u e p o ~ n ~
i n t i m e f r o m a s a m p l e s e l e c t e d t o d e s c r i b e some l a r ~ e
p o p u l a t i o n a t t h e t i m e .
R e s e a r c h I n s t r u m e n t s
T h e t o ~ l s used for t.iitr pur-pcse of d a t ; ~ c c l l e c t i o n
were q u e s t . i o n n a i r e and o r a l i n t e r v i e w s d e s i g n e d and
c o n d u c t e d b y t h e r e s e a r c h e r . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e
c o n t a i n e d some q u e s t i o n s p e r t a i n i n g t o c e r t a i n
d e m o g r a p h i c v a r i a b l e s o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s . Such
v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e a g e , s e x , e d u c a t i o n a l q u a l i f i c a t i o n ,
l e n g h t of s e r v i c e and m a r i t a l s t a t u s .
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S a m p l e
P o p u l a t i o n -
The p o p u l a t i o n o f s t u d y i n c l u d e d a l l t h e
s e n i o r members o f s t a f f o f p r e m i e r B r e w e r i e s p l c ,
O n i t s h a , T h e t o t a l number o f s e n i o r s t a f f a s a t
t h e t i m e of t h i s s t u d y was 1 3 3 ( o n e h u n d r e d a n d
t h i r t y t h r e e ) . O n l y t h e s e l l i o r s t a f f members were
u s e d b e c a u s e t h e y were i n a b e t t e r p o s i t i o n t o
f u r n i s h r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t r ~ e a p p l i c a t i o n
o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s a l s o t h e y h o l d p o s i t ~ o n s
r e q u i r i n g ~ n p o r t a n t d e c i s i o n - m a k i n q .
T h e t a o l e b e l o w s h o w s t h o p r c p o r t - i o n o f t h e
s e . l l o r s t a f f i n e a c h d e p d r t m e l l t t o t r l e t o t d l
p o p u l a t i o n .
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T a b l e 3 .1
i DEPARTM~.VT I I 1
I S O OF SEVlOH STAFF pERCENT.4GES : I I I v I
p r o d u c t i o n I t
F i n a n c e I
; N a r k e t i n g
I I R e s e a r c h & Dev. 1 3
i D 8
p e r s o n n e l I I 1 9 I I
I
S t o r e s * ! M a i n t e n a n c e
; * T o t a l
P r o p o r t i o n o f t h e S e n i o r S t a f f i n e a c h D e p a r t m e n t
t o t h e T o t a l ~opulation.
3.3.2 S a m ~ l e S i z e
T h e r e s e a r c h e r c h o s e a s a m p l e s i z e of 1 0 0 r e p r e s e n t i n g
75.2% o f t n e e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e s e n i o r s t a f f o f
p r e m i e r a r ewer i e s , p l c , O n i t s h a .
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T h e s a m p l e size is c a l c u l d t e d b a s e d c,rl t h i s
f o r m u l a :
w h e r e
n = S a m p l e s i z e
N = p o p u l a t i o n s i z e
e = M a r g i n o f e r r o r ( t h e r e s e a r c h e r a s s u m e d 5 % )
T h e Kumar ' s p r o p o r t i o n a l allocation f o r n u l a r
was employt-.I; in g e t t i l l q t h e r1urnbt.r t o bc srl~ctec! f r o m
each d e p a : t . r n : , ~ t s i n c e thrly d ~ d r l n t h i ~ v c . till; same
n u m b e r o f s e n l o r s t a f f .
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where kh i s t h e number o f u n i t s a l l o c a t e d t o e a c h
s tratum ( d i v i s i o n ) .
n i s t h e t o t a l sample s i z e
N h i s t h e number o f i t e m s i n e a c h s tratum i n
t h e p o p u l a t i o n
N i s t h e p o p u l a t i o n s i z e ,
T a k e f o r e x a m p l e , p r o d u c t i o n department
Kh = 1 0 0 x 24 = 1 8 . 0 - 3. 3 3 = l a r e s p o n d e n t s
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T a b l e 3 . 2
p r o p o r t i o n of t h e f t e s p o ~ l d e n t L e l c c t e d f roln E a c h
D e p a r t m e n t t o t h e T o t a l S a m p l e S i z e
I
: p r o d u c t i o n 1 I
, F i n a n c e 1 I : M a r k e t i r i g 1 I 1 I I
T r a n s p o r t 1
I 8 8% 1 1 I I I I I : R e s e a r c h & Dev. : 10 1 10% I
1 I 1
I I I : p e r s o n n e l 1 1 4 I 14% I I
I I e I I I 9
; Stcires 1 I I 6 1 6% I
1 1 I I I I : M a i n t e n a n c e I 20 20% 1
t 1 1 t I I
I 1
I 1 I I
' T o t a l I 1
I 1co 9 100% 1 1
I n
T h e s i m p l e r andom s a m p l i n g t e c h n i q u e w e i s u s e d i n
s e l e c t i n q t h e a p p r o p r i a t e number o f r e s p o r l d e r ~ t s f rom
e a c h d e p a r t m e n t . The p r o c e s s i n v o l v e d g e t t i n g t h e l i s t
o f t he s e n i o r - s t a f f e r s i n e a c h d e p a r t m e ~ ~ t : f r o m t : ;e
p e r s o n n e l m a n a g e r . I n s e l e c t i n g t i l e r e s p o n d e n t s f r o m a
g i v e n d e p a r t m e n t , e a c h member f r o m t h a t d e p a r t m e n t was
a s s i g n e d a number w h i c h was t h e n w r i t t e n o n a s e p a r a t e
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p i e c e o f p a p e r . E a c h p i e c e o f p a p 2 r was p u t . i n s i c e
a b a g . Thc r e s e a r c h e r t h e n p i c k e d t h e r e q u i r e d s a m p l e
s i z e f r o m t h e b a g , o n e a t a t i m e . To e l i m i . l a t e b i a s ,
t h e bag was t h e r o u g h l y s i i a k e i ~ a f t e r e a c h p i c k .
l n s t r u m e n t a t i o n
Two i n s t r u m e n t s w e r e u s e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f
d a t a c o l l e c t i o ~ l . T h e m a j o r i n s t r u m e n t was a
q u e s t i o n n a i r e d e s i g n e d by t h e r e s e a r c h e r . The
q u e s t i o n n a i r e i t e m s w e r e b a s e d or1 t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s
a n d t h e h y p o t h e s i s d e v e l o p e d by t h e r e s e a r c h e r . l t was
d i v i d e d i n t o t w o s e c t i o n s . S e c t i o n k d e a l t w i t h i t e m
c o n c e r ~ l i n g t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s and h y p o t h e s e s w h i l e
s e c t i o n B c o n t a i n e d d e m o g r a p h i c s o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s .
s eve ra l P r e - m e a s u r e s w e r e t a k e n w h i l e
d e s i q n i n g t h e q u e ~ t i o ~ l i l a i r e i t e m s . T h e q u e s t i o n s were
a l l c l o s e - e n d e d w i t h s e v e r a l o p t i o n s w h i c h w e r e
c o n s i d e r e d e x h a u s t i v e and m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e . B o t h
q u e s t i o n s a n d s t a t e m e i l t s w e r e u s e d a s q u c s t i o n n a i r e
i t e m s . 'The r e s p o n d e n t was t h e n r e q u e s t e d t o c h o o s e
o n l y o( le o p t i o n a s a n a n s w e r t o t h e q u e s t i o n a s k e d .
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To a s c e r t a i n t h a t t-i~e i n s t r u m e n t rne;,sured w h a t
i t was i n t e n d e d t o m e a s u r e , a t e s t o f v a l i d i t y w a s
c o n d u c t e d . 9 e h l i n g (1984: 6 1 ) d e f l n e s v a l i d i t y a s
t h e p r o c e s s o f f i n d i n g o u t t h e d e g r e e t o v ~ h i c h a t e s t
m e a s u r e s w h a t i t p u r p o r t s t o m e a s u r e . The p i l o t s t u d y
t e c h n i q u e was u s e d t o e s t a b l i s h t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e
i n s t r u r n s n t , To d o t h i s , t h e r e s e a r c h e r s e l e c t e d p i l o t
r e s p o n d e c l t s f r o m a p o p u l a t i o n d i f f e r e x t rr-om t h e
p o p u l a t i o n o f S t u d y , b u t w i t h s i m i l a r c r ~ ~ r a c t e r i s t i c s
T w e l v e ( 1 2 ) r e s p o n d e r ~ t s w e r e s e l e c t e d r o r t h i s p u r p o s e
a n a e a c h o f them was g i v e n a c o p y o f t : l ~ r q u r s t i o u n a i r e .
Tne s c o r e d t e s t s were c o l l e c t e d a f t e r t h e y had b e e n
d u l y c o m p l e t e d . To a n a l y s c t h e r e s p o n s e s , t h e r e s e a r c h e r
w e n t t h r o u g h e d c h of t h e c o m p l e t e d f o r m s n o t i t l q t h e
number o f " I d o n o t knoww i n t h e f o r m s . I t was o b s e r v e d
t h a t i t a p p e a r e d i n o n l y two p l a c e s . i3ased 011 t h i s , t h e
i n s t r u m e n t was t a k e n t o h a v e p a s s e d f a c e v a l i d i t y .
T h e r t ? l i a b i l i t y o f t h e i n s t r u m e n t was e q u a l l y
t e s t e d . R e l i a b i l i t y i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e a c c u r a c y
( c o n s i s t e n c y a n d s t a b i l i t y ) , o f m e a s u r e m e ~ r t o f a
phenomenon o r s u b j e c t (T. 1 Ywarlkwo 1981: 101). 'Tho
t e s t - r e t e s t m e t h o d was u s e d t o e s t a b l i s h t h e
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r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e i n s t r u m e n t , t h e same r e s p o n d e n t s
w e r e g i v e n t h e same q u e s t i o n n a i r e o n two o c c a s i o n s .
T h e t e n r e s p o n d e n t s c h o s e n f o r t h i s p u r p o s e c o m p l e t e d
t h e two t e s t s . A c o m p a r i s m was made b e t w e e n t h e
r e s p o n d e n t s were c o n s i s t e n t i n t h e i r r e s p o n s e s . T h i s
e s t a b l i s h e d t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e i n s t r u m e n t .
O r a l i n t e r v i e w s w e r e c o n d u c t e d b y t h e r e s e a r c h e r .
The r e s e ~ r c i i e r u s e d t h i s i n s t r u m e n t t o c o l l e c t more
d a t a t h a t c o u l d n o t appear o n t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e . T h e
o r a l i n t e r v i e w s a f f o r d e d t h e r e s e a r c h e r t h e o p p o r t u n i t y
t o v a l i d a t e t h e r e s p o n s e s g i v ~ n b y t h e r e s p o n d e n t s t o
t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e i t e m s .
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3 . q4 C o l l e c t i o n of Data
D a t a were c o l l e c t e d f r o m t w o s o u r c e s :
( i) S e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s
( i i ) p r i .mary . s o u r c e s
T h e l l b r a r y f u r n i s h e d t h e s e c o n d a r y s o u r c e of d a t a
t h r o u g h t h e b o o k s a n d J o u r n a l s r e a d .
T h e p r i m a r y s o u r c e s o f d a t a w e r e tk~r q u e s t i o n -
n a i r e a n d o r a l i n t e r v i e w s , H u n d r e d c o p i e s of t h e
questionnaire were t a k e n t o t h e p r e m i e s o f p r e m i e r
B r e w e r i e s P l c a n d were h a n d e a o v e r t o a p e r s o n n e l
o f f i c e r f o r d i s t r i b u t i o n L a s e d o n t h e l i s t o r t h e
n a m e s of r e s p o n d e n t s c h o s e n before. The p u r p o s e o f
u s i n g t h o o f f i c e r w a s t o e n s u r e tile o b j e c t i v i t y of
t h e i n s t r u m e n t a n d t o e i l m i n a t e bias. T w e n t y s e n i o r
m e m b e r s oi staf1 were ~ ' e n d o r l l y s e l e c t e d f o r oral
i n t e r v i e w ,
A n a l y s i s o f Data ( M e t h o d )
The r e s e a r c h e r made u s e o f s o m e s t a t i s t i c a l
t e c h n i q u e s t o e n a b l e t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o a n a l y s t d a t a
obtained, rn~~itc corrrpdr.isrns d ~ l t i d r e w c o ~ ~ c l u s i o n s .
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2 The r t - ? s c d r z h e r used c h i - s q u ( \ r e ( X ) tl i c t r i b u t i o n .
C h i - S q u a r e 1 s u s e d when ~t i s n e c e s s a r y t o c o m p a r e
a n a c t u a l o b s ~ r v e d d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h a h y p o t h e s e d
( e x p e c t e d c ~ i s t r i b u t i o n ) . ( T , ~ u c y 1984:75).
2 The f o r m u l a f o r the C h i - s q u a r e ( X )
w h e r e E = E x p e c t e d f r e q u e n c y
C = O b s e r v e d f r e q u e n c y ( 3 A T A )
The f o r m u l a f o r e x p e c t e d f r e q u e n c y ( E )
w h e r e E E x p e c t e d
K,T = Row ' r o t a 1
C,T = Column T o t a l
G,T = G r a n d T o t a l
The f o r m u l a f o r Degree o f F r e e d o m
( d f ) = ( r - l ) ( c - 1 )
w h e r e r = number 01 r o w s
c t number o f c o l u m n s
T h e C h i - s q u a r e was u s e d I n t r s t i n c j a l l t h e
h y p o t h e s e s a e v e l o p e d b y t h e r e s e a r c h e r ,
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3 . 6 S c o p e o f t n e S t u d y
T h e s t u d y t e n d e u t o c o v e r t h e a p p l i c a t i s r l o f
q u a r l t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n c o r p o r a t e d e c i s i o t k m a k i n g
i n p r e m i e r B r e w e r i e s p l c , C n i t s h a . Vo a t t . e m p t was
made at f ~ n d i l r y o u t w h a t i s o b t a A n a D l e i n o t h e r
b r e w e r i e s l n V i q e r i a , t h i s m a k e s i t d i f f i c u l r t o
g e n e r a l i s e t h e f i n d i n g s of t h i s s t u d y ,
The s t u d y i s n o t c r o s s p o l l i n a t i o n a l in t h e
s e n s e t h a t i I O t . a i l t h e c r o s s s e c t i o n s c,f ti.,^
o r q a n i s a t i o n were i n v o l v e d i n ttle s t u d y . o n l y t h e
s e n l o r s t a f f e r s were l ~ l v o l v e d ill tric s t u d y .
, . l o r e so , tile workers ( s e n i o r s t a f f ) c i t n e
o r g a n i s a t i o n were n o t d i s c r i r i i i n a t c d a g a i n s t i n t h e
c o u r s e o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , The same i n s t r u m e n t s
w e r e u s e d o n a l l t h e r e s p o n d e n t s .
3.7 L i m i t a t i o n of t h e S t u d v
1. The t i m e a v a i l a b l e t o the r e s e a r c h e r w a s n o t
e n o u g h f o r t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o v i s i t o t h e r s i s t e r
b r e w e r i e s i n t h e i n d u s t r y . R e a l l y , t i m e was a c
c o n t r a i n t t o t h e r e s e a r c h e r . ~ l s o a l o t o i
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r e a a j u s t m e n t s h a d t o b? d o n e t o a c c o r n n o d d t e b o t h
tne r e s e a r c h Work a n d c o u r s e w o r k .
( 2 ) F i n a n c e i s 1 i : : : i t a t i o n t o t h i s r e s e i i r c h w o r k .
I t W a s n o c e a s y f o r t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o b e a r t h e c o s t
o f r u n n i n q t h e p r o j e c t . T h e r e s e a r c h e r s p e n t a l o t
o f money i l l s u c h a r e a s a s t h e p r i n t i n g of the
q u e s t i o n n a i r e , t r a n s p o r t t o t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t ai id t h e
f i n a l p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e s t u d y w h i c h i n v o l v e d h u g e
a m o u n t o f money . F o r t h i s t h e r e s e a r c h w o r k a l i m i t e d
to p r e m i e r B r e w e r i e s , o n i t s h a .
( 3 ) Co - o p e r a t i o n arbd a v a i l a b i l i t y of t n e r e s p o n d e n t s
c o l ~ s t a i n e d t h e r e s e a r c h w o r k . b e v z r a l t r i p s had t o b e
m a d e t o t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t t o y e t p e o p l e i a t c r v i e w e d
o r a l l y . Some of t n e s u b j e c t s were n o t e a q c r to
c o - o p e r a t e w i t h t h e r e s e a r c h e r a i ~ d f u r . ~ i s h t h e , l e c e s s a r y
i r k f o r m a t i o n .
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1. F. N o K e r l i n g e r , F o u n d a t i o n s o f U c n a v i o u r a l R e s e a r c h ( Y e w Y o r k , H o l t , . t e v l e h d , r t d l ~ d V i ~ n : j t o n I n c , 1 9 6 0 ) , p , 2-15
2, 0, y,. (,do, ( ;u ic i r t o p r o p o s a l d r i t . ~ ; r q l n L o c i r i l and U e h a v i o u r a l S c i e n c e s , ( E n u g u , LNAAP P r e s s ~ t a , 1 9 9 2 ) p Q 4 2
3 . K O Kumdr S a m , A ib?arlual of ' Larnp l i , i : ; ' i ' t : c t r r r i ~ u e s , L o l l d o l l , t i e i n e m a n n , 1 9 7 6 ) , p . 1 3 7
6. P. 0. Y w a b u o k e i , F u r ~ d a m e r r t i i l s of :,t t i t i s t i c s , E n u g u , K o r u n a ~ o o k s , 1 9 8 6 1 , p . 5 3
9 . T. L u c y , U u a n t l t a t i v e T e c h n i q u e - ,I ( i . : a s t . l e ~ ~ h , j. h. p u b l i c a t i o n s , 1 9 8 4 ) . p . 7 5
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CHAPTER F G U H
T h e p r i m a r y d a t a f o r this s t u d y was derived f rom
r e s p o n s e s of c n c s e n i o r s t a f f merr,cers of p r r m i c l -
B r e w e r i e s , p l c , O n i t s h c l t o t h e r'esedrc1.i ~ ~ e s t i o n n , . ~ i r e .
The h y p o t h e s e s w e r e a t t e n d e d t o , aild t h e a i l a l y s i s o f
t h e s e d a t a i s t h e main o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r .
T h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s d i s t r i b u t e d w e r e d u l y c o n l p l e t e a
arid r e t u r n e d . T h e a n a l y s i s i s b d s c d 011 c h e r e s p o ~ l s e s
from c o m p l e t e d and r e t u r n e d q u e s t i o n r l a i c e ,
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H y p o t h e s i s O n e - S u l l h y p o t h e s i s (HO): T h e r e i s n o r e l a t i o n s h i p
between t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s a n d
t h e q u a l i t y of d e c i s i o n s i , ~ c o r p o r a ~ e d e c i s i o u r n a k i . . ~ .
A l t e r a a t l v e h y p o t h e s i s ( H I ) : T h e r e i s r e l a t i o n s h i p
b e t w e e n r n e a p p l i c a t i o ~ r o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d a and
t h e q u a l i t y o f d e c i s i o n s i n c o r p o r a t e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g .
D e c i s i o n R u l e : R e j e c t H o if t h e c a l c u l a t e d C h i - s q u a r e
i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c r i t i c a l v a l u e o t h e r w i s e , d o n o t
r e j e c t n u l l h y p o t h e s i s (110).
I * :OPINIONS ' : DEPAHTMENTS
I I
TCTAL 1
: Pi<O*lJC'I 'ION I T n n V S p o I i ~ P E I I ~ C J N S E L : I * * 9 ! M A H K E T I V G : ;.IAIVTENA; AESEAi+CH d o * 1 I I
, e I & , NCE & , I * I t F ~ V A N C E , 2 l ' O i i E S ' i)EV'r:LGPMENT 1 0 * I
1
I I 1 I I 1
1 : 8 * I 1 I * A g r e e I 1 0 r ! D i s a g r e e i 4 1 , 26 * 2 3 8 90 : I I
1 * * * I t * I I I 1 I I 0 * : T o t a l I 8
9 42 34 I 24 , 1 0 0 ' 1- * I I
L C h i - s q u a r e (,%. ) i s c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g t h i s f o r m u l a
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C e g r e e of f r e e d o m i s d e t e r m i n e d by u s i n g
( C - ~ ) ( K - ? ) -
E x p e c t . e d f r e q u e n c y (E) c a n b e ~ ~ i l c u l a t e d u s i n g
the f o r m u l a s t a t e d i n c h a p t e r t h r e e : -
e l 1 = 10x42 4.2 e l 3 = 1 0 x 24 = 2-4 -- loo loo
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T h e c a l u l a t e d C h i - s q u a r e i s '~9.53
h e c r i t i c a l v a l u e ( h y p o t h e s i s ) = 5 . 4 9 a t 5% l e v e l
of s i g n i f i c a n c e a t 2 d e g r e e o f f r e e d o m ( 3 - 1 ) ( 2 - I),
Dec i s ion : S i n c e t h e c a l o u l a t e d k2 w h i c h is 10.53 i s
g r e a t e r t k ' a n t h e c r i t i c a l v a l u e (5.99), t h e n u l l
h y p o t h e s i s w h i c h s t a t e s t h a t t h e r e i s no r e l a t r o n s h i p
b e t w e e n the? a p p l i c a t i o n of q u , ~ n e ~ t a t l v e r n e t l i o d s and tk ,e
q u a l i t y o i d e c i s i o n s i n c o r p o r a t e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i s
r e j e c t e d a l ~ d t h e a 1 t e r r l n t i v e h y p o t h e s i s w h i c h states
t h a t t h e r e i s r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s a n d t h e q u a l i t y o f a e c i s i o n s I n
c o r p o c a t e d c c i s i o n m i i k i n q i s a c c e p t e d . I t i s c o r ~ c l u d e d
t h a t t h e a p p l cation of q u i i i i t 1 t a t l v e rnetncds I n
c o r p o r a t e d e c l s i o n m a k l n g l e a d s t o more q u a l i t y - d e c i s i o n s ,
4.2 H y p o t h e s i s Two - N u l l H y p o t h r a s i s (HO) T h e b e n e f i t s of o p , ? r . a t i o n s
R e s e a r c h ( . U u a ~ l t i t a t i v e met h o d s ) a r e n o t qi'e , i ter thdn
t h e c o s t s .
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A 1 t e r : r a t i v e H y p o t h e s ~ c ( H i ) : T h c berief lts of
o p e r a t i o n s H e s e a r c h ( Q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t n o a s ) a r e g r e a t e r
t h a n t h e c o s t s .
D e c i s i o n R u l e : Reject N u l l h y p o t h e s i s i f t h e
c a l c u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c r i t i c a l
v a l u e , o t h e r w i s e , d o not r e j e c t n u l l h y p o t h e s i s ( H o ) .
CONTlNSENCY TABLE I1
$ Agree
I P I e e 1
t 42 34 *
* t 24 r 100 I I-
t I a t *
2 C h i - scluarc! ()I ) = ( 0 - E ) 2
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I 8 I 2 @ : O a V E H V E D i 2
* ( b - , I I
, (0) , E , 0 - E , (C-E) * E t . I . * I
, 1
38 ; 35 .28 : 2 . 7 2 : 9 . 4 C 0 . 2 1 , b 8 I 1
* I
1 I
t e 3 3 i 28.56 j 4 . 4 4 : 1 9 . 7 1 * 0.69 o
I I I I I
i * * I
I 1 3 ; 20.16 1 - 7 - 1 6 5 2 - 2 6 ' 2.54
I I 1 * , I
I
1
I I I
4 ' 6 .72 ' -2.72 7 - 4 3 0 1.10 I
I I I I *
E x p e c t e d f r u y e n c y ( E ) = I,T x CT
(; T
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D e c i s i o n : S i n c e t h e c a l c u l a t e d g2 w h i c h i s 2 1 . 5 1
i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c r i t i c a l v a l u e ( 5 . 5 9 ) , t h e n u l l
h y p o t h e s i s ( H o ) w h i c h s t a t e s t h a t t h e b e n e f i t s o f
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s a r e n o t g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c o s t s
i s r e j e c t e d a n d t h e a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s w h i c h
s t a t e s t h a t t h e b e n e f i t s o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s a r e
g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c o s t s i s a c c e p t e d . The c o n c l u s i o n ,
t h e r e f o r e , the b e n e f l t s of q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n
c o r p o r a t e d e c i s i o n makinq a r e greater t i ; a ~ l tne c o s t s .
4.3 H y p o t h e s i s T h r e e
N u l l h y p o t h e s i s ( H o ) : H e l i a n c e o n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s f o r d e c i s i o n mak ing d o e s n o t
r e d u c e i i l d i v i d u a l i ~ l i t i a t i v e .
A l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s ( H i ) : H e l i a n c e on t h e a p p l i c a t i o n
o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s f o r d e c i s i o n mak ing r e d u c e s
i n d i v i d u a l i n i t i a t i v e .
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D e c i s i o n R u l e : Reject N u l l h y p o t h e s i s ( H o ) 1f t h e
c a l c u l a t e d c h i - s q u a r e i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c r i t i c a l
v a l u e o t h e r w i s e , d o n o t r e j e c t n u l l - n y p o t h e s i s ( H o ) ,
I
I D i s a g r e e : 1 4 I
I I I I e T o t a l *
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Chi - s q u a r e = ( 0 - E) 2
E
E x p e c t e d f r e q u e n c y c a l c u l a t e d
1 0 0 l o o
The c a l ? u l a t e d chi - s q u a r e 1 s 4.2
The c r ~ t i c a l v d l u e is 5.59 d t 5% level of
s . i q n i f i c a l l c e a t 2 degree of f r e e d o m .
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D e c i s i o n : S i n c e t h e c a l c u l a t e d w h i c h i s 4.2 i s
less t h a n t h e c r i t i c a l v a l u e , t h e n u l l h y p o t t ~ e s i s w h i c h
s t a t e s t h a t r e l i a n c e o n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a i l t i t a t i v r
m e t h o d s f o r d e c i s i o n rndk ing d o e s n o t r e d u c e i ~ h d l v l a u a l
i n i t i a t i v e i s a c c e p t e d a:ld t r i e a1 t e r r i s t i v e P ~ y p c t h e s i s
w h i c h s t a t e s t P , a t r e l i a n c e on t h e a l i p l i t a t l o n of
q u a r l t i t a L i v e m e t h o a s f o r c : e c i s i o n m a k i n g r e c i b c e s
i n d i v i d u a l i n i t i a t i v e i s r e j e c t e d .
I t i s c o n c l u d e d t h e r e f o r e t h a t r e l i a n c e o n t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n of ~ u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s d o e s n o t r e c u c e
i n d i v i d u a l . i ; r i t i a t l v e r i i t h e r i i- :,i,ds,
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T h e f o l l o N i n y were c o r l c l u d e d f r o m t:;ie ~ ~ 1 d 1 y s . i ~
i n c h a p t e r f o u r : -
The r e s e a r c h e r d i s c o v e r e d and c o n c l u a e d t h a t
p r e m i e r L i r e w c r i e s , p l c , O n i t s h a a p p l i e s q u a n t i t a t i v e
m e t h o d s i n c o r p o r a t e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i n v a r i o u s ,-ireas
o f o p e r a t i o n 1 i k e p r o d u c t i o n , t r a n s p o r t a t ~ c n , r n a r k ? t i n g ,
p u r c h a s i n q a n i o t h e r a r e a s a s a f o r e - s a i d ,
A p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n c o r p o r a t e
d e c i s i o n m a k i n g l e a d s t o m o r e G u a l i t y d e c i s i o n a s was
d i s c o v e r e d i n t e s t i u c j h y p o t h e s i s o n e . T h i s i s a s a
r e s u l t of d e c i s i o n s b a s e o n p u r e d a t a n o t b a s e o n
i n d i v i d u a l s u b j e c t i v e s ,
The b e n e f i t s of q u ~ l n t i t d t i v e m e t h o d s a r e q r c d t e r
t h a n t h e c c s t s o f q u a n t i t a t i v e e c t h o d s a s c o n f i r m e d
by t h e t e s t i n j o r h y p o t h e s i s t w o .
M o r e s o , i t was c o n c l u d e d t h a t r c l i d n c e o n t h e
a p p l i c a t l c n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o c s d o e s n o t r e d u c e
i ~ r a i v i d u a l i n i t i a t i v e ,
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I n t r o d u c t i o n :
This c h a p t e r p r e s e c l t s t h e summary o r f i n d i n g s ,
r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s and c o n c l u s i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e nre tnods I n p r e m i e r
B r e w e r i e s , plc. O n i t s h a .
Summary o f F i n d i n q s
The p i - c : s e # l t a t i o n and c i t l i i l y s l s shown I n c a t i p t e r
f o u r r e v e a l - e d c e r t a i n f a c t s c o t ~ c e r n r n g t n e a p p l i c a t i o n
of quantitative m e t h o d s i n d e c i s i o n making i n p r e m i e r
B r e w e r i e s , Plc.
The r e s e a r c h showed t h a t q u a l i t i t a t i v e nrcthods
a r e a c t u a l l y e x p l o y e d i n making d e c i s i o n s i n p r e m i e r .
This W A S e v i d e n t . i n t . h e h i g h f r e q u e n c y of' t - : j t .
r e s p o n d e n t s t h a t r e b l i e d i n t h e a f f i r m a t i v e . T h e
s t u d y a l s o r e v e d l e d t .hdt a l m o s t d l 1 the r e s p o n d e n t s
h a v e a p p l i e d q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h c d s i n o n e a r e a o r t h e
o t h e r r a n g i n g f r o m p r o d u c t i o n , t r a n s p o r t a t ' on , hdrnini-
s t r a t i o n , F i n a n c e , M ~ i r k e t i n q t o i tesearch <iild U e v e l opmcnt .
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I t w a s r e v e a l e d t h a t t n ( : 3 ; , p l i c a t i o n o f
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s l e a d s t o m o r e q u a l i t y d e c i s i o n s .
F r o m t h e s t u d y , i t w a s s h o w n t h a t s c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d s
o f d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g were p r e f e r r e d t o t . h e n o n - s c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d s . T h e r e a s o n g i v e n f o r t h e p r e f e r e -
n c e i s t h e h i g h d e g r e e of p r e c i s i o n t n a t t h e s c i e : l t i f i c
m e t h o d e x h i b i t s .
S e v e r a l f a c t o r s were f o u n d t o b e r n i l i t a t i i l g
a g a i n s t ttie a p p l i c a t i o n o f ( q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n
t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t . S u c h f a c t o r s i n c l u d e : L a c k o f
e q u i p m e n t ; L a c k o f a d e q u a t e t r a i n i n g a n d l a c k o f
e n c o u r a g e m e n t f r o m s u p e r i o r s . ~f a l l t h e s e f a c t o r s ,
i t w a s e s t a b l i s h e d t l ra t t h e l a c k uf ecjulprner l t s u c h
a s c o m p u t e r s f o r m e d t h e m a j o r f a c t o r m i l i t a t i n g
a g a i n s t t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n
t h e e s t a b l i s h e d . T h i s w a s r e v e a l e d t h r o u g h t h e o r a l
i r r t e r v i e w w i t h t h e s e n i o r s t a f t of t h e e s t a u l l s h m e n t .
T h e s t u d y r e v e a l e d t h a t . t h e b e n e f i t s o f
o p : ' r a t i o n s i < e s e a r c h a r e g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c o s t s .
A n o t h e r r e v e a l a t i o n w a s t h a t t h e r e l i a n c e on t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t n ~ d s d o e s n o t r e d u c e
i n d i v i d u a l i n i t i a t i v e .
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The re s e a r c h e r f o u n d o u t t n a t t h e u s e o f
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s I n d e c i s i o n - rn3k iug i n t r o d u c e s
o b j e c t i v i t y i n t o t h e p r o c e s s . T h i s i s b e c a u s e t h e
d e c i s i o n s a r e p u r e l y b a s e d o n d a t d a n d t . h c t e f o r e n o t
s u b j e c t t o i n d i v i d u a l s u b j e c t i v e s .
5.2 R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s
T h e r e a r e some r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s m a d e b y t h e
r e ~ e a r c h e r , ahld t h e s e s u c ~ c j e s t i o n s a r e a l m ~ d a t
i m p r o v i n q t h e p r e s e 4 1 t l e v e l o f a e c i s i o r r - mdki l lg ~ y
w l d e n i n g t h c s c o p e o f a p p l i c a t i c n of q u a r t t ~ t d t i v e
m e t h o d s .
14allaqcrnent s h o u l d m ~ l k e e n o u g h f u t ~ d s a v a i l a b l e
f o r t h e p r o c u r e m e n t o f e q u i p n t e l l t s u c h as c o m p u t e r s
srld p l o t t e r s i n o r d e r t o i m p r o v e t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t , T h e s e
e q u i p m e n t s s h o u l d be made a v a i l a b l e t o a l l t h e
d e p a r t m e n t s t o e n s u r e u n i f o r m d e v e l o p m e n t .
T r a i i i i n y p r o g r a m m e s s h o u l d b e a r r a n g e d f o r t h e
w o r k e r s o n ' a r e g u l a r b a s i s . E v e r y w o r k e r i . ~ e x p e c t e d
t o a t t e n d a t l e a s t t w o t r a i n i n g arld d e v e l o p r n c l l t
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p r o g r a m m e s i n a y e a r . T h c s e p r o y r a m m e s S h o u l d Le
a i m e d a t d e v e l o p i n q t h e i r m a - l a g e r i a l s k i 1 l s aild
i m p r o v i n g t n e i r t e c h n i c a l ef f ~ c i # - ; n c y t h e r c e b y
e n h a n c i n g ~ r c d u c t i v i t y . b u c h p r o q r a m m e s s h o u l d
i n c l u d e w o r k s h o p s , c o r l i crerrces, local alld overseas
c o u r s e s a n d on - t h e - j o b t r a i n i n q p r o g r a m m e s .
f i a t l a g e r s s h o u l d i n c r e a s e t i r e u s e c f d e l e g a r i o n
not o f r e s p o n s i ~ i l i t y . T h e y s h o u l d , s e e u e l e q a t i o n a s a
t h r e a t t o t h e i r p o s i t i o n , r a t h e r t h e y s h o u l d set? i t 3s
a n i m p o r t a ~ l t n l a ~ l a g e r i a l p r , ? c t i c e w h i c h i m p r o v e s j o b
q u a l i t y a n d j o b s a t i s f , ~ c t i o n . E v e r y t h i n g s h o u l d n o t
be h a n d l e d b y t h e m a n a g e r s a l o n e , t n e s u b o r d i n a t e
s h o u l d b e made a p a r t o f t n e o r g a r i i s a t i o n , D e l e g a t i o n
h a s t o be a c c o m p a n i e d w i t h a d e q u a t e a u t h o r i t y t o e n a b l e
t n e w o r k e r d i s c h a r g e t h ~ d u t y w i t h d i s p a t c t l . T h i s
p r a c t i c e if a d o p t e d will i m p r o v e tile d e c i ~ l c r l - r n d k i ~ l g
e f f o r t .
M a n a g e m e n t s h o u l d n c t l o o k a t j u s t t h e c o s t o f
a p p l g i n q q u a . ~ r i t a t i v e m e t h o d s , t h e y s h o u l d r e a l ise
t n a t t h e b e l l e f i t s f a r o u t - w e i g h t h e c o s t , A d a t b b a n k
s h o u l d be :jet u p s u c n t n a t i n f o r m a t i o n c a n D e r e t r i e v e d
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o r s t o r e t i w i t h ease. S u c h d a t a b a n k w i 1 . l br i rrq
a b o u t a h i g h u s a g e r a t e C T q u a l ~ i t a t i v e m e t h o d s
as d e c i s i o n s c o u l d now be made f a s t e r t h a n b e f o r e
w i t h the a v a i l h ~ i l i t y of i n f o r m a t i o n .
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5 . '3 C o ~ ~ c l u s i o n s
H a v i n g g i v e n t h e Summary of t h e i i n d i n y s arid
t h e r e c o m m e ~ l d a t i o n s , t h e r e s e a r c h e r f i n d s i t
p e r t i n e ~ l t t o d r a w s o m e c o n c l u s i o n s .
p r e m i e r a rewer ies a c k : ~ o w l e d g e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e
o f q u a ~ l t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g .
Q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s h - v e bee11 a p p l ied i l l v i r t u a l l y
a l l t a c e t s o f o p e r a t i o n s i n t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t . T h e
r e l e v a , l c e of q u . i t ~ t i t a t i v t ? m e t h o d s t o modern d a y
m , ~ a g e m e n t c a n n o t b e o v e r - e m p n a s i z e d . I t i s a
w e l c o m e c n a n g e f r o m t h e l e s s o h j e c t i v c , h i q h l y
s u b j e c t i v e n o n - s c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d s h i t h e r t o i n
a p p l i c a L i o r r .
T h e r e s e a r L h e r L o n c l u a e d ~ n a t 'With t n e
a p p l i c a t l o l r o t q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s , d e c i s i o n m a k i r ~ y
h a s b e e n made a l o t e a s i e r . I t i s 110 l o n g e r a n e r v e
w r a c k i n g e x e r c i s e b u t a s y s t e m , i t i c p r o c e s s o f
c h o o s i n q t h e m o s t f a v o u r a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e .
M o r e s o , a l t h o u g h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of q u a n t i t a t i v e
m e t h o d s i s e x p e n s i v e , t h e b e n e f i t s e m a t h a t i n g f r o m i t
a r e n u m e r o u s . The c o s t o f i t s a p p l i c a t i o n . s h o u l d n o t
d e t e r t k , e e s t a b l i s h m e n t f r o m u s i n g i t . Q ~ a ~ i t i t a t i v e
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m e t h o d s p r o v i d e s u c h a c o s t saving v e ~ l t u r t . , e v i d e n t
i n i t s r e s u l t s , t h a t w h a t e v e r c o s t s were i n c u r r e d
i n i t s a p p l i c a t i o n g e t s c o m p l e t e l y w r i t t e n o f f . Such
a r e a s i n c l u d e t r a n s p o r t , r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t , m a r k e t i n g , p r o d u c t i o n , a c r n i n i s t r a t ~ o n , f i ! l a r i c e anG
i n o t h e r a r e a s .
T h r e e m d j o r f d c t o r s m i l i t a t e a g a i n s t t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s i n p r e m i e r
Breweries. The m o s t p r e s s i n g 1:; l a c k o f e q u i p m e n t .
T h e s e e q u i p m e n t g r e a t l y enhance t h e a p p l i c i i t i o n o f
q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s . T h e i r c o n t l n u e u n o n - a v a ~ l a b i l i t y
c o u l d mar t h c d e c i s i o n - making e f f o r t af t h e e s t d b l i s h -
men t . A t l o t h e r f a c t o r i s the l a c k o r a d e ~ i u a t e t r a i n i n g
f o r t h e s t a f f e r s , T r a i n ~ r l g a c t s a s all e y e - o p e n e r . I t
d o e s r lo t o t l l y e n h a n c e d e v e l o p m e n t , i t ~ l s o I r o d d e r l s t h e
o p e r a t i o n a l s c o p e of t h e w o r k e r . T h e t h i r d f a c t o r i s
t h e l a c k o f e n c o u r a g e m e n t f r o m tk.e s u p e r i o r s t t l r c u s h
d e l e g a t i o n of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y , Many rnanaqers feel
t h r e a t e n e d wnen t h e y d e l e g a t e r e s p o n s i L i l 1 t y t o t n c i r
s u b o r d i 1 3 d t e s . A t t i m t ? ~ t:!-.ey d c l i i . j , ~ t e r.f.:..;pclri.'; i G i l i t y
w i t h o u t clclequaie a u t l i o ~ - i t y . T h i ~ hc:rnpt!r~ t k , c ! , j t i l l t y
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o f t i r e ~ u b o r d i n a t e t o t a k e p r ~ p c r c ? e c i : ~ i o r l s t h n t ; / r i l l
b r o d u c e r e s u l c s .
Q u a l ~ t i t i i t i v e m e t h o d s t h e r e f o r e a i d t n e d e c i s i o n
m a k i n g p r c c e s s ,
S u a u e s t e a Areas f o r F u r t h e r H ~ s e a r c h
The f i e l d o f q u a r ~ t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s is v e r y v a s t
a n d n o s i n g l e p r o j e c t can be e x h a u s t i v e e n c u q h . T h e
r e s e a r c h e r s u g g e s t s t i r a t m o r e s h o u l d be d o n e ~n t h e
a r e a o f d e v c : l o p i n y s p e c i f i c mot ie ls f o r v a r i o u s
o p e r a t ~ o n s I n t h e e s t a ~ l i s ~ m e n t . S u c h m o d e l s w ~ l l
t a k e into c u n s i d r r a t i o n t h c : p e . c u l a r i t ~ ~ ? s o: t klc'
c o m p a n y so t h a t t h e m o d e l w i l l corn*: o u r t a l l o r - m a d e ,
T h e moc:e l s n o t i l a a l s c a i m a t c i t i . ~ c r s o l v i n q a n e x i s t i n l j
p r o b l e m o r d e v e l o p i n g b e t t e r wdys of a c c o m p l i s h i n g
e x i s t i n g t a s k s .
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E.U.L. I rnaga , U. J . t ' . S w u r u n , ! i u s i n e s s b.,irlncjen!erlt T o p i c s , ( O k t e k P u b l i s h e r s , 1 9 9 8 )
B r i n k l o e , d . D., I n X a : l a q e m e n t . k Uo;k o f l iedd i : l q s , e d i t e d b y H. K o o n t Z a x d C. C a ; o n 4 1 e l , ( .Yew Y o r k , M C G r a w H i l l R o o k C o m p a n y , 1 9 7 6 )
B a i l e y , 2 . J o b U e s ~ , . j t - r a n d JOL-K ~ ~ . c j a i h . i ~ a t . i o n , ( L o n d o n , p r e n t i c e - Hill i - ~ t . , 1 9 8 3 )
C h u r : c h a d n , C , e t a1 , l r r t r o : ! u c t i c n t o c . r ~ l \ i ; ~ t l o r i s R e s e a r c h , ( N e w York, J o h n ' ~ 1 i l l c . y & C o r i s , 1 9 5 1 )
F a b r y c k y , i d . J . o t al, A p p l i e d C p e r a t i o n s S e s c a r c h and H a n a g e n e n t b c i e n c e , ( N e w G e b h i p r e n t i c e H a l l , 1 9 8 7 )
a n d H e k ~ a v i o ~ r , ( A u c k l a ~ l d , r:cSraw Vi l l l n t . n o o k C o . 3 9 8 4 )
9 ~ b b e r e d I d . , E a a i c h t a c l s t l c s : A f i l a n u a l f a r police Off icet!jL ~ c n d o n , P o l i c e F ~ t ~ n d a t i o r i , 1 9 9 C )
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Kool l iZ , 3. e t a1 , M a i l ~ q e m n n t , (Auck7 KcGraw H i l l l n t . B o ~ k C o . , 1 9 8 0 ) -
L z t h a n s F . C : r g ~ l . l i s a t ~ a n a l Uehdvlo.lr, uew York, Mc Sraw H l l l B o o k C o . 1 9 b 7 )
P i c C l a i n , 3 . C . a n d Thomas , L . J . u p c r ~ 3 t ~ ~ n s M a ~ ; ~ : ; e m e n t - p r o a u c t i o n ~f ';c cC1:; a:~;? S ~ ~ V I C ( ? S , N e w D e l h i , p r t h n t i c e M a l l , 1 9 8 7 )
S i m o n , M . A . , The V e w S c i o n c e of M a ; i ~ i q c n i e n t D e c i s i o n , ( Y e w Y ~ ~ r k , r l a rpc? r , 1 9 6 0 )
ThompSon, C . , B . , L c i e t ~ t i f i c E a r l A q e m ~ ~ l t ( M a s s a c h u s e t t s , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y p r e s k , 1 9 1 4 )
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2 6 . T a y l o r . F. W., Scientific p;a:ra\ leme l t , ( l e d f o r k H a r p e r a t l d b r o t h e r s , 1 9 4 7 )
2 8 . U r w i c k L . I?. T h e p C 3 t r e r t i c.1 i . :agiaqemr?l l t , ~ i ~ l ~ ~ e a p o l l s , T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f ~ i n n e s o t a p r e s s , 1 9 5 b )
2 9 . U l l m a : ~ , J. E . , Q u a . h t i t a t l v e h e t h o d s i n M i t t i a q e n i e r ~ t , (Yew Y o r k , M c G r a w H i l l Hook C o . 19 -10 )
~ d r n i ~ ~ l s ( -1 , i t i v e ; c i c ~ . ~ r d u a r t e r l y , J u n e , 1 9 7 6 -.
J o u r n a i t o M a t h e m a t i c s and p h y s i c s L V o l . x x 1581
F i n a n c i , ~ ! T i m e s K e v i e i * , S p r i n g , 2 4 9 3
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8. i3usiness Times, May 2 0 t h 1992
9 , i3usiness Times, September 14, 1992
10, ausiness Concord, J u l y 2, 1 9 9 1
11, premier 3 u l l e t i n V o l . 15, 1 9 9 2
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A P P E N D I X
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QUESTIONNAIRE
Management Depar tment
F a c u l t y o f B u s i n e s s Admin.
p o s t G r a d u a t e Schoo l
U n i v e r s i t y o f N i g e r i a
Enugu Campus.
1 5 t h December, 1998
Dear Sir/Madam
I am a s t u d e n t of t h e above named s c h o o l c a r r y i n g
o u t a r e s e a r c h on t h e A p p l i c a t i o n of Q u a n t i t a t i v e
Methods i n C o r p o r a t e D e c i s i o n Making i n your e s t a b l i s h m e n t
( p r e m i e r B r e w e r i e s ) . The p u r p o s e t o r u n d e r t a k i n g t h i s
q u e s t i o n n a i r e i s p u r e l y a c a d e m i c , and any i n f o r m a t i o n
s u p p l i e d would be t r e a t e d w i t h s t r i c k c o n f i d e n c e .
Yours f a i t h f u l l y ,
UMENWALIRI, ANNASTASIA.
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Section A
- P l e a s e t i c k / / w h e r e a p p r o p r i - t e
1, Do you a i ; p l y quantitative rnetncds i n declsion
maxin3 in your estdblish~ent?
(b) N o /7
2, I n w l i i c h of t h e s e areds h a v c y o u a p p l i c d
- ( a ) production / /
( a ) d e s c a r c h a n d u e v e l u p r n r ! i t / /
3 - Does a p p l k c s t iorl of qira:~t .itatllve me t n o d s - e s u l t s
to quality d e c i s i o n s ?
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4. G i v e n t h e o p t i o n t o c h o o s e a m e t h o d f o r y o u r
d e c i s i o n - m a k i n q , w h i c h will y o u a d o p t ?
( a ) 5 c l e ) l t i f i c m e t h o d - / /
( b ) Y o n - L c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d /7 - 5 . b o e s t h e l a c k o f n e c e s s a r y e q u i p m e n t (e .g c ~ r n p u t c r )
m i l i t a t e a q a i n s t t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f q u 3 i l t i t a t i v e
m e t h o k i s i n p r e m i e r R r e w e r i e s ?
- ( c ) I ; o c ~ @ t know 1 /
7. A r e y o u c o m p u t . e r l i t e r a t e ?
8. d h i c h o k t h e s e f a c t o r s i s a ma jo r o b s t a c l e t o w ~ ~ r d s
t h e a p p l i c a t i o n ?
( a ) L a c k o f e q u i p m e n t /T
( c ) L a c k of e r l c o u r a c j e m e n t f roln s u p e r i o r s / /
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9. Are y o u c . ~ c o u r a y e d b y y o u r s u p e r i o r s t o t a ~ c : A ~ T I P
d e c i s i o i - I S through d z l e c j a t i o n o f , ~ u t h o r ~ t y ?
o b j - r ? < t i v i t y i i l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g ?
( b ) x o d e r a t r / /
13. 1 s the application of qu; l ! l t i t :a t i v e i r ~ c l t hoc!s v e r y
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1 4 . 1 s t h e c ~ s t of a p p l ~ c a t i o n g r e a t e r t h a n t h e b s ? n e f i t ?
( a ) Yes 65_7
(c) U o n c t know /y
1 5 , T h e u s e o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s reduces i n d i v i d u a l
i n i t i a t i v e ?
1 7 . dh,3t p e r c e n t d ~ j e of t h e d e c i s i o n s n\..:de i n y o u r
d e p a r t m e n t a r e based o n t h e application of q u a n t i t a t i v e
met h o d s ?
(a) A t l e a s t 50% 1 7 -
(b) ~t m o s t 50% / /
18 . Do you t h i n k t h a t more s h o u l d b e done b y n ~ r l a g e r n c n t
t o i m p r o v e t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s ?
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S e c t i o n R
19. I n u h ~ c h d e p a r t m e n t a r c you?
20, % h a t is y o u r ase b r a c K e t ?
- ( a ) 2 0 - 30 y e a r s / /
( b ) 3 0 - 4 0 y c a r s - (c) 40 - 50 ycdrs /T
( d ) 50 a r i a above /-/
2 1 , W h a t i s y o u r present p o s i . t i o n ? .....................
- ( a ) M A S C / G C L / /
( b ) N D / p r o f essiorral C e r t i f icatr /7
( d ) p o s t g r - a a u a t e /7
24, How lttrcj h , ? v e y o u worked k r t h prt . rn lcbr ! ! r . ~ % w - ~ r : e s ?
( b ) 5 - 10 yrs =
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19. I n w h i c h d e p a r t m e n t a r c you?
20. % h a t is your aGe b r a c ~ e t ?
- ( a ) 20 - 3 0 y e a r s / /
( b ) 30 - 4 0 y ? a r s -
2 1 , What is your present posi.tion? .....................
- ( b ) N D / p r o f ess io t la l C e r t i f i c a t r / /
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