Unity Infra projects 4Q FY 2013

7/28/2019 Unity Infra projects 4Q FY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly Highlights Standalone

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 3QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)Net sales 692 717 551 (3.5) 25.6Operating profit 73 89 76 (18.2) (4.5)

Net profit 30 39 28 (22.9) 6.3Source: Company, Angel Research

For 4QFY2013, Unity Infraprojects (UIP) posted a disappointing set of numbers

which were significantly below our estimates, both on the revenue and

profitability fronts. The company secured orders worth ~`1,200cr in FY2013,

taking the order book to`3,353cr (1.6x trailing revenue) as on 4QFY2013.

Disappointing quarterly performance: On the top-line front, the companyreported a revenue of `692cr (our estimate was `833cr) in 4QFY2013,

indicating a decline of 3.5% yoy. The companys EBITDA margins stood at 10.6%

(down 190bp on a yoy basis), which were below our estimate of 11.7%. The

interest cost came in at`40cr for the quarter, up 15.5% yoy. On the bottom-line

level, UIP reported a PAT of `30cr for the quarter, a decline of 22.9% yoy and

was below our estimate of `36cr owing to slower-than-expected execution and

disappointing performance at the operating level.

Outlook and valuation: On the back of poor execution and muted order inflows,we have revised our revenue estimate for FY2014 to `2,146cr (our earlier

estimate was `2,400cr) and introduce our revenue estimate of `2,339cr for

FY2015. The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 2.6x and 2.5x our FY2014 and

FY2015 diluted earnings estimates. We have used the SOTP method to value the

stock. We value the construction business at a P/E of 3.0x FY2015 estimated

earnings (~30% discount to larger companies under coverage), and BOT

projects on a DCF basis at a CoE of 16%. We continue to maintain our Buyrating on the stock with a target price of `41.Key financials (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 1,973 2,040 2,146 2,339% chg 15.9 3.4 5.2 9.0

Adj.Net Profit 104 93 81 85% chg 9.7 (10.6) (12.0) 4.7

EBITDA (%) 13.8 13.4 13.7 13.8

FDEPS (`) 14.0 12.5 11.0 11.5P/E (x) 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.5

P/BV (x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

RoE (%) 14.8 11.7 9.3 9.0

RoCE (%) 15.9 13.7 12.7 12.4

EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 4.7 4.6 4.5

OB/Sales (x) 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.4

Order Inflows 2,676 1,193 1,970 2,508

% chg 55.1 (55.4) 65.1 27.3

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP `29

Target Price `41

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (` cr) 888

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 62.7

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 6.4

FII / NRIs / OCBs 2.5Indian Public / Others 28.4

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 3.5 22.2 14.2

UIP (0.9) (27.3) (72.9)

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

215

1.6

52/26

55,287

Infrastructure

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

2

19,546

5,919

UTIL.BO

UIP@IN

Viral Shah022-39357800 Ext: 6842

[email protected]

Unity InfraprojectsPerformance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Infrastructure

June 4, 2013


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Unity Infraprojects | 4QFY2013 Result Update

June 4, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 3QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % ChgNet Sales 692 717 551 (3.5) 25.6 2,040 1,973 3.4Total Expenditure 619 628 475 (1.4) 30.5 1,766 1,701 3.8

Operating Profit 73 89 76 (18.2) (4.5) 274 272 0.7OPM (%) 10.6 12.5 13.9 (190)bp (333)bp 13.4 13.8 35bp

Interest 40 35 43 15.5 (6.2) 153 121 25.9

Depreciation 6 6 5 7.9 9.8 22 20 9.3

Non Operating Income 8 7 8 8.7 0.3 24 20 17.5

Nonrecurring items - - - - - - - -

Profit Before tax 35 56 36 (38.2) (3.6) 123 150 0.8Tax 5 18 8 (71.8) (38.1) 30 47 (36.2)

Net Profit before MI 30 39 28 (22.9) 6.3 93 104 (10.6)PAT (%) 4.3 5.4 5.1 (78)bp 96bp 4.5 5.2 (71)bpMinority Interest (MI) - - - - - - -Net Profit after MI 30 39 28 (22.9) 6.3 93 104 (10.6)Adj. PAT (%) 4.3 5.4 5.1 (78)bp 96bp 4.5 5.2 (71)bp

Adj. FDEPS 4.0 5.2 3.8 (22.9) 6.3 12.5 14.0 (10.6)Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:4QFY2013 Actual vs Estimates

(` cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%)Net Sales 833 692 (16.8)

EBITDA 98 73 (25.1)

EBITDAM (%) 11.7 10.6 (116)bp

Interest and Financial Charges 44 40 (9.4)Adj. PAT 36 30 (18.2)


Execution falters

On the top line front, the company reported a revenue of`692cr (our estimate

was `833cr) for 4QFY2013, indicating a decline of 3.5% yoy. Considering

UIPs order book of`3,353cr, we estimate it to report a revenue of`2,146cr and

`2,339cr for FY2014 and FY2015, respectively.

Exhibit 3:Execution disappoints


Exhibit 4:

Composition of revenue (4QFY2013;%

)


390

490

717

395

401

551

692

12.6

9.9

25.8

5.12.9

12.6

(3.5)

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)

68

2210

Civil Transportation Irrigation & WS


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June 4, 2013 3

Lower-than-expected operating performance dents PAT growth

UIPs EBITDA margin for the quarter under review stood at 10.6% (down 190bp on

a yoy basis), which is below our estimate of 11.7%. The interest cost for the quarter

came in at`40cr, registering a growth of 15.5% yoy. On the bottom-line front, UIPreported a PAT of`30cr, a decline of 22.9% yoy and was below our estimate of

`36cr, owing to slower-than-expected execution and disappointing performance at

the operating level.

Exhibit 5:EBIDTAM under pressure


Exhibit 6:High interest cost dents PATM


Order book analysis

The companys order book stood at `3,353cr as on 4QFY2013, registering a

decline of 20% yoy. It secured new orders worth ~`1,200cr over the last fourquarters and is the lowest bidder in projects worth`815cr. The order book-to-sales

ratio stands at 1.6x trailing revenues, thus providing comfortable revenue visibility

over the next two years. The order book mix comprises of civil (51%), irrigation &

WS (21%) and transport (28%) segments.

Exhibit 7:Order backlog Segment wise (%)


Exhibit 8:Order backlog Region wise (%)


63

71

89

54

70

76

73

16.1

14.5

12.5

13.6

17.6

13.9

10.6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.08.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

80

90

100


EBITDA (`cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)

21

25

39

18

17

28

30

5.35.0

5.4

4.64.1

5.1

4.3

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)

51

28

21

Civil Transportation Irrigation & Water supply

43.4

3.2

5.1

48.2

56.6

West East South North Overseas


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June 4, 2013 4

Outlook and valuation

On the back of poor execution and muted order inflow, we have revised our

revenue estimate of FY2014 to `2,146cr (our earlier estimate was`2,400cr) and

introduce our revenue estimate of `2,339cr for FY2015. The stock is currently

trading at a P/E of 2.6x and 2.5x our FY2014 and FY2015 diluted earnings

estimates, respectively. We have used the SOTP method to value the stock. We

value the construction business at a P/E of 3.0x FY2015 estimated earnings (~30%

discount to larger companies under coverage), and BOT projects on a DCF basis

at a CoE of 16%. However, we have not assigned any value to the real estate

investments owing to significant delay in start of construction activity and in the

absence of clarity on the exact development schedule for all (four) of the projects.

We continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `41,

indicating an upside of 41% from the current levels.

Exhibit 9:Derivation of SOTP-based target price for UIP (FY2015E)

Particulars Segment Value ( ` cr) Value per share (`) BasisUnity's construction business Construction 256 35 P/E of 3.0x one year rolling forward earnings

Total 256 35Road BOT projectsPunjab Haryana Border Toll 11 2 NPV at CoE of 16%

Suratgarh-Sriganganagar BOT Toll 19 2 NPV at CoE of 16%

Chomu-Mahala BOT Toll 17 2 NPV at CoE of 16%

Total 47 6Grand Total 303 41


Exhibit 10:Key assumptions

FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EOrder Inflow 2,260 1,725 2,672 1,193 1,970 2,508

Revenues 1,477 1,702 1,973 2,040 2,146 2,339

Order Backlog (Y/E) 3,477 3,501 4,200 3,353 3,176 3,345

OB to Sales ratio (x) 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.4


Exhibit 11:Angel EPS forecast vs consensus

Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2014E 11.0 15.1 (27.0)

FY2015E 11.5 16.1 (28.2)



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Investment argument

Comfortable order book-to-sales provides revenue visibility: The companys

order book stands at `3,353cr (excluding L1 orders worth `815cr) as on

4QFY2013, thereby translating into a book-to-bill ratio of 1.6x trailing revenues.

Well diversified order book with pan - India presence: UIP initially started off with apresence in Maharashtra and historically remained skewed towards projects in and

around Maharashtra. It has come a long way in the last decade, making its

presence felt across India by diversifying into new verticals and bidding for new

projects across the country. As on date, 66% of UIPs order book constitutes orders

from the North, South and East regions of the country.

Foray into asset ownership model: From being a mere EPC player, UIP has forayedinto asset ownership model through its wholly owned subsidiary Unity Infrastructure

Assets Ltd and has bagged 3 BOT projects under its portfolio. The company hasstarted construction activity in one of its road BOT project the Chomu-Mahla

project and is in an advanced stage of achieving financial closure for the other two

projects.


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Exhibit 12:Recommendation summary

Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) P/E (x) OB/FY13 FY14E FY15E CAGR (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E CAGR (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E Sales (x)

ABL 201 255 Buy 1,853 1,928 2,234 9.8 16.0 18.0 22.2 17.7 12.5 11.2 9.0 2.3CCCL 12 - Neutral 1,931 2,281 2,492 13.6 (3.3) 0.7 2.0 - (3.5) 16.9 5.7 2.2

IRB Infra 115 157 Buy 3,687 3,997 4,312 8.1 16.7 15.7 16.6 (0.3) 6.9 7.3 6.9 2.4

ITNL 174 230 Buy 6,645 7,444 8,041 10.0 26.8 29.8 32.1 9.4 6.5 5.8 5.4 2.2

IVRCL 18 35 Buy 3,773 6,287 6,836 34.6 (3.9) 2.3 3.0 - - 7.5 5.7 4.9

JP Assoc. 66 90 Buy 13,358 14,850 15,631 8.2 2.2 2.5 2.9 13.8 30.1 26.2 23.2 -

L&T 1,409 1,761 Buy 60,873 68,946 78,040 13.2 67.5 77.9 88.3 14.4 20.9 18.1 16.0 2.5

NCC 31 42 Buy 5,725 6,167 6,945 10.1 2.4 2.7 3.6 22.0 12.7 11.6 8.6 3.2

Punj Lloyd 44 - Neutral 11,717 12,954 14,740 12.2 (0.2) 0.5 0.9 - - 86.1 46.9 1.9

Sadbhav 108 139 Buy 1,811 2,462 2,731 22.8 0.9 5.9 6.7 177.2 124.8 18.4 16.2 5.6

Simplex In. 100 131 Buy 5,897 6,308 7,033 9.2 10.8 11.9 18.7 31.9 9.3 8.4 5.3 2.7

Unity Infra 29 41 Buy 2,040 2,146 2,339 7.1 12.5 11.0 11.5 (4.0) 2.3 2.6 2.5 1.6Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 13:SOTP breakup

Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `

ABL 87 34 - - 168 66 - - - - 255

CCCL 16 100 - - - - - - - - 16

IRB Infra 45 29 - - 112 71 - - - - 157

ITNL 80 35 - - 120 52 - - 30 13 230IVRCL 15 43 - - - - 20 57 - - 35

JP Assoc. 24 27 23 25 - - - - 43 48 90

L&T 1,318 75 - - - - 443 25 - - 1,761

NCC 23 55 - - 7 17 - - 12 29 42

Punj Lloyd 64 100 - - - - - - - - 64

Sadbhav 47 33 - - 93 67 - - - - 139

Simplex In. 131 100 - - - - - - - - 131

Unity Infra 35 85 - - 6 15 - - - - 41Source: Company, Angel Research

Company background

Unity Infraprojects Ltd (UIP) is a mid-sized engineering and construction company

with focus on civil construction and infrastructure development in India. The

company is the flagship unit of the Mumbai based KK Group of Companies. The

company is focused in areas such as civil construction and infrastructure

development projects. The company has three subsidiaries, namely Unity Realty

and Developers Ltd, Unity Infrastructure Assets Ltd and Unity Telecom Ltd. UIP was

incorporated as Unity Builders Ltd on April 9, 1997. The company changed its

name to Unity Infraprojects Ltd on January 14, 2000. The company has gained

credibility owing to its quick turnaround time, in-time and within-cost deliveries,

organizational strength and financial stability and above all, following

international standards.


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Profit & loss statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 1,477 1,702 1,973 2,040 2,146 2,339Other operating income - - - - - -Total operating income 1,477 1,702 1,973 2,040 2,146 2,339% chg 30.6 15.2 15.9 3.4 5.2 9.0

Total Expenditure 1,285 1,474 1,701 1,766 1,853 2,017R.M. consumed 581 825 964 967 1,011 1,102

Construction expenses 613 505 575 645 683 741

Employee expenses 53 59 61 67 73 81

SG&A 38 85 101 87 86 94

EBITDA 191 227 272 274 294 322% chg 34.0 18.8 19.7 0.7 7.3 9.5

(% of Net Sales) 13.0 13.4 13.8 13.4 13.7 13.8

Depreciation & Amortisation 17 18 20 22 25 30

EBIT 174 209 252 252 269 292% chg 37.0 20.3 20.4 (0.0) 6.9 8.4

(% of Net Sales) 11.8 12.3 12.8 12.3 12.5 12.5

Interest & other Charges 84 83 121 153 169 188

Other Income 40 17 20 24 24 26

(% of PBT) 30.8 12.1 13.3 19.2 19.1 19.9

Share in profit of Asso. - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 130 143 150 123 123 129% chg 25.0 10.3 5.0 (18.6) 0.8 4.7

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -

PBT (reported) 130 143 150 123 123 129Tax 44.7 48.9 46.9 30.0 42.0 44.0

(% of PBT) 34.4 34.1 31.2 24.4 34.0 34.0

PAT (reported) 85 94 104 93 81 85Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -

Prior period items - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 85 94 104 93 81 85ADJ. PAT 85 94 104 93 81 85% chg 22.2 10.8 9.7 (10.6) (12.0) 4.7(% of Net Sales) 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.6

Basic EPS (`) 11.5 12.7 14.0 12.5 11.0 11.5Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 11.5 12.7 14.0 12.5 11.0 11.5% chg 22.2 10.8 9.7 (10.6) (12.0) 4.7


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Balance sheet (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 15 15 15 15 15 15Share App Money - warrants - - - - - -

Reserves & Surplus 550 636 731 822 893 968

Shareholders Funds 565 651 746 837 908 983Minority Interest - - - - - -Total Loans 686 861 905 1,179 1,329 1,479

Deferred Tax Liability 1 1 (2) (0) (0) (0)

Total Liabilities 1,253 1,513 1,650 2,016 2,237 2,462APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 154 186 222 245 305 365

Less: Acc. Depreciation 53 70 90 112 137 167

Net Block 100 116 132 133 169 199Capital Work-in-Progress 1 11 - - - -

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 34 68 54 64 139 214Current Assets 1,465 1,762 1,956 2,299 2,462 2,630Inventories 133 78 200 540 569 619

Sundry Debtors 562 807 890 997 1,000 1,025

Cash 161 189 218 112 183 245

Loans & Advances 609 680 642 649 711 741

Other - 7 7 - - -

Current liabilities 347 444 493 480 533 581

Net Current Assets 1,118 1,318 1,463 1,818 1,929 2,049Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 1,253 1,513 1,650 2,016 2,237 2,462


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Cash flow statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 130 143 150 123 123 129

Depreciation 17 17 20 22 25 30Change in Working Capital (317) (172) (117) (461) (40) (58)

Less: Other income (40) (17) (20) (24) (24) (26)

Direct taxes paid (45) (49) (47) (30) (42) (44)

Cash Flow from Operations (255) (78) (13) (370) 43 31(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (11) (43) (25) (23) (60) (60)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (0) (34) 14 (10) (75) (75)

Other income 40 17 20 24 24 26

Cash Flow from Investing 29 (59) 9 (10) (111) (109)Issue of Equity 1 - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 214 174 45 274 150 150

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (9) (9) (9) (2) (10) (10)

Others 69 (0) (3) 2 - (0)

Cash Flow from Financing 276 165 33 274 140 140Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 50 28 29 (106) 71 61

Opening Cash balances 111 161 189 218 112 183Closing Cash balances 161 189 218 112 183 245


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June 4, 2013 10

Key RatiosY/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.5P/CEPS 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9

P/BV 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

Dividend yield (%) 3.4 3.4 3.4 0.7 4.1 4.1

EV/Sales 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA 3.9 3.9 3.3 4.7 4.6 4.5

EV / Total Assets 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 11.5 12.7 14.0 12.5 11.0 11.5

EPS (fully diluted) 11.5 12.7 14.0 12.5 11.0 11.5

Cash EPS 13.8 15.2 16.7 15.4 14.3 15.5

DPS 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.2 1.2 1.2

Book Value 76.3 87.9 100.7 112.9 122.5 132.7

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 11.8 12.3 12.8 12.3 12.5 12.5

Tax retention ratio 65.6 65.9 68.8 75.6 66.0 66.0

Asset turnover (x) 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1

ROIC (Post-tax) 12.2 11.4 12.6 11.4 9.0 9.0

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 9.5 7.1 9.5 11.1 8.9 8.8

Leverage (x) 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3

Operating ROE 14.6 15.6 15.6 11.8 9.1 9.2

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 16.2 15.1 15.9 13.7 12.7 12.4

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 18.6 17.4 18.4 15.1 13.6 13.7

ROE 17.3 15.5 14.8 11.7 9.3 9.0

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 9.9 10.0 9.7 8.7 7.8 7.0

Inventory / Sales (days) 30 23 26 66 94 93

Receivables (days) 120 147 157 169 170 158

Payables (days) 120 98 100 101 100 101

Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 197 224 220 264 294 277

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3

Net debt to EBITDA 2.7 3.0 2.5 3.9 3.9 3.8

Interest Coverage 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.6


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June 4 2013 11

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and

risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement Unity Infraprojects

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Unity Infra projects 4Q FY 2013

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