United Utilities Group PLC...2016/17, equivalent to 21% of annual electricity consumption...
Transcript of United Utilities Group PLC...2016/17, equivalent to 21% of annual electricity consumption...
United Utilities Group PLCCredit Investor Update
Summer 2018
Contents
2
UU Overview 3-9• Where we operate 4
• Investment proposition 5
• Behaving responsibly 9
• Environmental, Social and Governance 10
Operational performance 11-18• 5-year lead on Systems Thinking 14
• Totex outperformance 15
• Sharing outperformance 16
• Net regulatory capex profile 18
ODIs 19-26• ODI target 20
• ODI performance 21
• PR19 ODIs 24-26
Customer performance 27-30• Customer satisfaction 28-29
• Bad debt and cash collection 30
Financial performance 31-43• Income statement movements 32-39
• Financial position movements 40-42
• Cash flow statement 43
Financial resilience 44-49• Credit ratings 45
• Pensions 46-47
• RCV and gearing 48-49
Financing and hedging 50-60• Financing as at 31 March 2018 51
• Impact of RPI inflation 52
• Cost of debt 53
• Hedging 54-56
• Debt structure and maturity profile 57-60
Economic regulation – PR14 61-69• Ofwat’s legal duties 62
• PR14 - WACC 64
Economic regulation – Water 2020 & PR19 70-75• Water 2020 – structure of new price controls 71
• PR19 – WACC 72
• PR19 – summary of final methodology 73
• PR19 timetable 75
Cautionary statement 76
UU Overview
Where we operate
4
Regulated UK water and wastewater business
3.2 million household
and non-household customer premises
Regional population of
around 7 million
Investment proposition
5
Wholesale revenue and asset base linked to RPI inflation through to at least 2020
Management team with extensive commercial, operational and regulatory experience
Track record of regulatory outperformance; exceeded our 2010-15 targets
Clear vision to be the best water company in the UK, providing great service to our customers
Clarity on allowed returns through to 2020
Water Plus Non-Household Retail JV with Severn Trent - first mover advantage, well placed to compete
Significant improvements in operational performance and customer service
Low cost of debt locked in and robust capital structure with a stable A3 rating
Dividend policy targeting annual growth of at least RPI inflation through to 2020
Our vision is to be the best UK water and wastewater company
Deliver long-term shareholder value by providing:
6
Shareholder value driven by regulatory outperformance:
The best service to customers
At the lowest sustainable cost
In a responsible manner
Totex
Operational
Financing
Capital structureRobust and sustainable
7
Moody’s has an A3 rating with a Stable outlook
S&P has an A- rating with a Stable outlook
Target gearing range of 55% to 65% supports robust capital
structure
Financingheadroom into
2020
Average term to maturity of debt portfolio of just under 20 years
Dividends2015-20 policy targets sustainable growth
8
2017/18 full year dividend of
39.73 pence per ordinary
share
RPI based on November from
prior year -mirrors RPI in
price limits
Increase of 2.2%, in line with 2015-20
dividend policy
Consistent with growth in regulatory
capital value
Target growth rate of at least RPI each year to 2020, from 2014/15 base
Recognise importance of
income to shareholders
Behaving responsiblyLeading on corporate governance
9
Approach to affordability and vulnerability setting new benchmarks
Sharing outperformance with customers; c£500m over AMP5 and AMP6
Ofwat self-assured for reporting; one of only three companies
and the only listed company
Early adopters of new standards; recognition through awards
Leading position on pensions
Securing long-term operational and financial resilience
ESGStrong environmental, social and governance credentials
10
Aim to deliver the highest levels of corporate governance, consistent with principles of the UK Corporate Governance Code
July 2018, retained Industry Leading Company four star status in the Environment Agency’s annual assessment
Drinking water quality improved again to the best it has ever been
Retained our World Class rating in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index for the tenth consecutive year
Consistently met or outperformed our regulatory leakage targets
By 2020, aim to reduce carbon footprint by 50% compared with 2005/06 baseline, and on track to do so (33% reduction so far)
Generated 167 gigawatt hours in renewable energy, up 12% on 2016/17, equivalent to 21% of annual electricity consumption
Operationalperformance
Ideally placed to meet the challenges
12
United Utilities is ideally placed to meet these challenges.
We have the long-term plans in place to improve resilience and enhance service and quality, underpinned by our use of innovation and technology.
The industry faces many challenges
United Utilities is now a leader among the WASCs
We have a clear vision and a long-term strategy and the capabilities to
deliver both
Environmental Affordability ReputationalResilience
OverviewDelivering for customers, shareholders and the environment
13
Sharing overall outperformance through
additional investment; increased to £250m
Systems Thinking setting new benchmarks for the
sector
£100m totex outperformance
Final AMP6 ODI position expected to be inpositive reward
territory
Sector leading financial resilience
5-year lead on Systems ThinkingOur use of data and technology and our innovative Systems Thinking approach is setting new benchmarks for the industry
We are quick adopters of new technology and our Innovation
Lab approach facilitates rapid development and deployment of
new ideas
14
Resilience Efficiency
Service
Delivering sustained improvements
in service, resilience and
efficiency
Systems Thinking helped ensure our resilience to cope with increased demand
through freeze thaw event
No significant deterioration in service
Record snow
depths followed by
a rapid thaw
Event Recognition in Water Network (ERWAN)
Machine Learning - a self learning system that learns the ‘normal’ system signature within our water network and sends an alert as soon as
it sees a deviation. One case study reduced the duration of supply interruption to customers by 42%
Robotic process automation
Eliminating the cost of many manual activities
Wastewater network management
Pilot results show a 49%reduction in totex and a 70%improvement in service
£100m totex outperformanceDriving efficiency into the capital programme through changing our delivery model, harnessing innovation and embracing the digital world.
15
Systems Thinking has fundamentally changed the way that we operate and reduces totex whilst also improving service.
Resilience Efficiency
Service
Sharing outperformance through additional £250m investmentAdditional investment increased from £100m to £250m delivering industry leading, long-term resilience in water and future proofing bills for the benefit of customers
Covering of all filters & chambers downstream of first stage filters
Installation of Shut down and Start up facilities at ALL WTWs
Robust service reservoir assessments & repair
Engineer led HAZREV completed at highest risk sites, with ALL WTWs on track for completion
UV installed at WTWs and ability to deploy it everywhere underway
16
Resilience Efficiency
Service
Risk reduction through replacement of 1.5km of Haweswater Aqueduct most at risk
Sector leading performanceSignificant and sustained improvement leading the industry
17
Resilience Efficiency
Service
Industry leading 4* status with the Environment Agency
Lowest number of pollution incidents; frontier in sector
Best-in-sector on self-reporting
Best ever drinking water quality
Sector leading resilience6.21
6.37
6.48
6.71
6.98
7.04
7.07
7.31
7.35
Thames Water
Severn Trent
South West Water
Northumbrian Water
Anglian Water
Yorkshire Water
Wessex Water
Southern Water
United Utilities
Wholesaler performance
Wholesaler performance in business retail marketSource: Utility Week / Water.Retail research
Net regulatory capital spend profile
18
NB. The UU AMP6 investment programme shown on this chart does not constitute a forecast and is subject to change
400
500
600
700
800
900
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
£m
UU capex FD assumed capex
Outcome deliveryincentives
ODIs – AMP6
Continued solid improvement in operational performance – now on track to deliver a cumulative reward for the period
20
+£140m
+£50m +£30m +£30m +£30m
-£100m
-£70m-£50m
£0m
Continually reduced
downside risk
-£470m
Outcome Delivery Incentives (ODIs)
Reward/(Penalty) (£m)
2017/18 Yrs 1-3
Reliable water service index (23.9)(8.0)
Average minutes supply lost per property (6.0)(6.0)
Water quality service index (3.6) (7.0)
Total leakage at or below target9.1
Thirlmere transfer to West Cumbria 0.0 0.0
Private sewers service index7.4 22.1
Wastewater category 3 pollution incidents3.3 9.8
Other 12 wholesale ODIs (0.1) (1.9)
Total wholesale ODIs (7.0) 2.2
21
0.0
West Cumbria strategyDriving innovation through planning, procurement and stakeholder management to target ODI reward
22
Project driver
• European Habitats directive
• Long-term resilience for West Cumbria
• To stop using Ennerdale water by 31 March 2022
Particulars & status
• £300m scope
• 95km pipeline, 80Ml/d treatment works, 3 service reservoirs, 2 pumping stations
• 9yr duration (5yrs construction)
Delivery through innovation
• Extensive stakeholder engagement
• Collaborative planning
• DFMA, 3D/4D modelling and virtual visualisation
ODI potential
• Unique ODI with individual milestones
• 16 milestones in total, 7 achieved, on track to outperform
• Potential ODI reward of £22.5m
Innovating to tackle leakageCumulative ODI reward of £9.1 million in the first 3 years of AMP6
Important to customers and significant focus in PR19
Satellite technology geo-locates an area of leakage and a sniffer dog can then accurately locate the leak
Supplemented by our Event Recognition in Water Network Technology (ERWAN)
- helps predict where issues will occur
- resolve issues proactively
23
ODI reset
24
Lessons learned from AMP6
ODIs have incentivised
company behaviour
Cross sector comparisons require
harmonised performance measurement methodologies
Incentives to be reset with
greater consistency
required
ODIs are not a proxy for
operational efficiency
ODI reset
Illustrative example:
Pollution performance 2016/17
25
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
-
1
2
3
4
5
(120)
(80)
(40)
-
40
80
120
SWT YKY NES SRN TMS ANH SVT WSK UU
OD
I rew
ard
/ (
pen
alty
) £
m
No
rmal
ised
per
form
ance
Pollution performance
Normalised performance based on the Environment Agency’s Environmental Performance Assessment 2016 category 1-3 pollution incidents per 10,000km of sewer (excludes Welsh Water). ODI position taken from company specific Annual Performance Reports 2016/17.
Good performer
Poor performer
Penalty
Reward
Normalised pollution performance
ODI reward (company specific)
ODI penalty (company specific)
ODI reward (normalised)
ODI penalty (normalised)
Proposed common performance commitments
26
Drive for greater commonality in AMP7
Customerperformance
Qualitative SIMHighest ever score; 3rd place for the year overall and 1st in final wave
28
4.00
4.10
4.20
4.30
4.40
4.50
4.60
4.52 4.514.49
(listed)4.48 4.48 4.47
4.46 4.454.44 4.42
4.42(listed)
4.38 4.38 4.33(listed)
4.32
4.26
4.17 4.16
Anglian Wessex Water
UnitedUtilities
Portsmouth Northumbrian WelshWater
Bournemouth DeeValley
SouthStaffs
Yorkshire SouthWest
Bristol SouthEast
SevernTrent
Southern Affinity Thames Sutton & East Surrey
SIM QualitativeAll Company Positioning 2017/18 YTD
Resilience Efficiency
Service
United Utilities is now a leader amongst all companies
Qualitative + Quantitative performance trending
significantly above industry average
Best listedperformer
Leading listed water company for CCWater customer
satisfaction research
Best listedperformer
Leading the sector on service
29
The most improved Utility company
Step change in ranking and performance
+ 7.4 point increase in 12 months
Mostimproved
Resilience Efficiency
Service
Bad debt and cash collection
Household bad debt as a percentage of regulated revenue
30
2014/15
3.7%
2017/18
2.3%
Reducing cost
Award winningbilling and collections initiativessuch as Town Action Planning
The highest DD penetration across the industry at 69.8% despite our affordability challenges
Using segmentation and external data to drive efficient
service and cash collection
External recognition
Excellence in Treating Customer Vulnerability– Collections & Debt ManagementCredit Awards WINNER May 2017
Water Team of the YearU&T Awards WINNER October 2017 Best Vulnerable Customer Support Team U&T Awards Finalist October 2017
Innovative approaches to customer engagement and satisfactionMarket Research Society Awards Shortlisted September 2017
Responsible approach to Consumers Project of the Year 2018 CICM British Credit Awards Finalist February 2018
Financialperformance
Reported income statement
£mYear ended 31 March
2018 2017
Revenue 1,735.8 1,704.0
Operating expenses (722.6) (733.6)
EBITDA 1,013.2 970.4
Depreciation and amortisation (376.8) (364.9)
Operating profit 636.4 605.5
Investment income and finance expense (206.6) (189.0)
Profit on disposal of non-household retail business - 22.1
Share of profits of joint ventures 2.3 3.8
Profit before tax 432.1 442.4
Tax (77.5) (8.5)
Profit after tax 354.6 433.9
Earnings per share (pence) 52.0 63.6
Total dividend per ordinary share (pence) 39.73 38.87
32
Underlying income statement
£mYear ended 31 March
2018 2017
Revenue 1,735.8 1,704.0
Operating expenses (566.8) (567.9)
Infrastructure renewals expenditure (147.1) (148.3)
EBITDA 1,021.9 987.8
Depreciation and amortisation (376.8) (364.9)
Operating profit 645.1 622.9
Net finance expense (277.2) (237.3)
Share of profits of joint ventures 2.3 3.8
Profit before tax 370.2 389.4
Tax (65.3) (76.0)
Profit after tax 304.9 313.4
Earnings per share (pence) 44.7 46.0
Total dividend per ordinary share (pence) 39.73 38.87
33
Revenue analysis
£mYear ended 31 March
2018 2017
UU Water appointed 1,708 1,671UU Water non-appointed 9 9Non-UU Water 19 24Revenue 1,736 1,704
34
Underlying operating costsMovements
£mYear ended 31 March
2018 2017 Movement
Revenue 1,735.8 1,704.0
Employee costs (147.0) (140.9) (6.1)Hired and contracted services (95.4) (93.4) (1.9)Property rates (90.5) (91.6) 1.1Power (70.4) (68.7) (1.7)Materials (66.7) (62.8) (3.9)Regulatory fees (29.7) (26.8) (2.9)Bad debts (20.8) (29.9) 9.1Third party wholesale charges - (3.0) 3.0Cost of properties disposed (9.8) (8.6) (1.2)Other expenses (36.5) (42.2) 5.7
(566.8) (567.9) 1.1Infrastructure renewals expenditure (IRE) (147.1) (148.3) 1.2Depreciation and amortisation (376.8) (364.9) (11.9)Total underlying operating expenses (1,090.7) (1,081.1) (9.5)
Underlying operating profit 645.1 622.9
Adjustments:Flooding incidents (net of insurance proceeds) (1.7) (1.5)Non-household retail market reform1 (1.0) (5.8)Restructuring costs (6.0) (10.1)Reported operating profit 636.4 605.5
35
1 Relates to market reform restructuring costs incurred in preparing the business for open competition in the non-household retail sector
Finance expense
£mYear ended 31 March
2018 2017
Investment income 12.0 13.7Finance expense (218.6) (202.7)
(206.6) (189.0)Less net fair value (gains)/losses on debt and derivative instruments (47.3) (24.3)Adjustment for interest on swaps and debt under fair value option 23.5 15.4Adjustment for net pension interest income (7.1) (10.2)Adjustment for capitalised borrowing costs (39.7) (29.2)Underlying net finance expense (277.2) (237.3)
Average notional net debt 6,614 6,232
Average underlying interest rate 4.2% 3.8%Effective interest rate on index-linked debt 5.0% 3.7%Effective interest rate on other debt 3.1% 3.9%
36
Finance expense: index-linked debt
£mYear ended 31 March
2018 2017
Cash interest on index-linked debt (47.8) (48.2)RPI adjustment to index-linked debt principal – 3 month lag1 (107.8) (65.6)CPI adjustment to index-linked debt principal – 3 month lag2 (3.7) -RPI adjustment to index-linked debt principal – 8 month lag3 (26.3) (15.1)Finance expense on index-linked debt (185.6) (128.9)
Interest on other debt (including fair value option debt and swaps) (91.6) (108.4)Underlying net finance expense (277.2) (237.3)
37
• Cash interest payment of £48m on c£3.7bn of index-linked debt
• Increase in indexation charge mainly due to higher RPI on 3 month lagged debt
• RPI impact on RCV exceeds RPI impact on debt principal
3 Affected by movements in RPI between July 2016 and July 2017
2 Affected by movements in CPI between January 2017 and January 2018
1 Affected by movements in RPI between January 2017 and January 2018
Profit before tax reconciliation
£mYear ended 31 March
2018 2017
Operating profit 636.4 605.5Investment income and finance expense (206.6) (189.0)Profit on disposal of non-household retail business - 22.1Share of profits of joint ventures 2.3 3.8Reported profit before tax 432.1 442.4Adjustments:Flooding incidents in Dec 15 (net of insurance proceeds recognised) 1.7 1.5Non-household retail market reform1 1.0 5.8Restructuring costs 6.0 10.1Profit on disposal of non-household retail business - (22.1)Net fair value losses/(gains) on debt and derivative instruments (47.3) (24.3)Interest on swaps and debt under fair value option 23.5 15.4Net pension interest income (7.1) (10.2)Capitalised borrowing costs (39.7) (29.1)Underlying profit before tax 370.2 389.3
38
1 Relates to market reform restructuring costs incurred preparing the business for open competition in the non-household retail market
Profit after tax reconciliation
£mYear ended 31 March
2018 2017
Reported profit after tax 356.4 433.9Adjustments:Flooding incidents in Dec 15 (net of insurance proceeds recognised) 1.7 1.5Non-household retail market reform1 1.0 5.8Restructuring costs 6.0 10.1Profit on disposal of non-household retail business - (22.1)Net fair value (gains)/losses on debt and derivative instruments (47.3) (24.3)Interest on swaps and debt under fair value option 23.5 15.4Net pension interest income (7.1) (10.2)Capitalised borrowing costs (39.7) (29.2)Deferred tax credit – change in tax rate - (58.2)Agreement of prior years’ tax matters - (15.5)Tax in respect of adjustments to underlying profit before tax 11.8 6.2Underlying profit after tax 304.9 313.4
Basic earnings per share (pence) 52.0 63.6Underlying earnings per share (pence) 44.7 45.9
39
1 Relates to market reform restructuring costs incurred preparing the business for open competition in the non-household retail market
Financial position
£mAt 31 March
2018 2017
Property, plant and equipment 10,790.5 10,405.5Retirement benefit surplus 344.2 247.5Other non-current assets 421.1 384.2Cash 510.0 247.8Other current assets 302.2 333.4Total derivative assets 635.5 807.7Total assets 13,003.5 12,426.1
Gross borrowings (7,912.3) (7,384.5)Other non-current liabilities (1,741.5) (1,620.8)Other current liabilities (297.8) (349.5)Total derivative liabilities (101.0) (249.7)Total liabilities (10,052.6) (9,604.5)
TOTAL NET ASSETS 2,950.9 2,821.6
Share capital 499.8 499.8Share premium 2.9 2.9Retained earnings 2,120.3 1,991.2Other reserves 327.9 327.7
SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY 2,950.9 2,821.6
NET DEBT1 (6,867.8) (6,578.7)
40
1 Net debt includes cash, borrowings and derivatives (slide 42)
Movement in net debt1
41
1 Net debt includes derivatives which incorporate regulatory swaps
6,578.7 989.8
26.9
267.0
174.2
701.0 26.5
137.8 0.7 6,867.8
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Net debt at31/03/17
Operatingcash flow
Fair valuemovements
Dividends Interest andtaxation
Net capex Loans to jointventures
Inflation uplifton index-
linked debt
Other Net debt at31/03/18
£m
Derivative analysis
£mAt 31 March
2018 2017
Derivatives hedging debt 585.5 810.0Derivatives hedging interest rates (50.1) (243.0)Derivatives hedging commodity prices (0.9) (9.0)Total derivatives assets and liabilities (slide 40) 534.5 558.0
42
• Derivatives hedging debt; hedge our non index-linked debt into sterling, floating interest rate debt.
Typically these are designated in fair value hedge accounting relationships
• Derivatives hedging interest rates; fix our sterling interest rate exposure on a 10 year rolling average basis.
This is supplemented by fixing substantially all remaining floating exposure across the future regulatory
period around the time of the price control determination
• Derivatives hedging commodity prices; fix a proportion of our future electricity prices in line with our
policy
• Derivatives are included within net debt to eliminate, to a certain extent, the fair value recognised in
borrowings and thereby present a more representative net debt figure
• Further details of our group hedging strategy can be found in the Group financial statements
Cash flow statementCash from operations covers investing activities £m
Year ended 31 March2018 2017
Net cash generated from operating activities 815.6 820.8
Net cash used in investing activities (723.2) (804.6)
Net cash generated from financing activities 184.7 22.0
Net movement in cash 277.1 38.2
43
Financialresilience
Credit rating summary
45
Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s)
UUW* ratedA3
UU PLC ratedBaa1
A3 threshold: net debt to RCV
ratio ≤65%
A3 threshold: adjusted
interest cover ≥1.7x
UUW* ratedA-
UU PLC ratedBBB
A- threshold: adjusted FFO to
debt ≥11%
* Any notes issued by UUW’s financing subsidiary United Utilities Water Finance PLC (UUWF) are expected to be rated in line with UUW’s credit rating
Standard & Poor’s (S&P)
Pensions
46
Hedging continues to work well
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18
£m
IFRS pensions surplus
Assets Liabilities
£79msurplus
£126msurplus
£275msurplus
£215msurplus
£248msurplus
£220msurplus
£344msurplus
Lower risk investment strategy
• Pension assets <25% equities or other high risk assets
• Underlying interest rates largely hedged through external market swaps and gilts
• Around 50% of liabilities hedged for inflation through external market swaps and index-linked gilts
Significantly less volatility in UU pension scheme funding levels
UU IFRS pension surplus normalised for different assumptionsUU’s Mar-17 IFRS pension surplus increases by c£350m if normalised1
for Severn Trent’s or Pennon’s assumptions
47
Source: Companies’ annual report and accounts
1 Adjusting for inflation, discount rate and mortality assumptions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
£m
UU IFRS pensions surplus (normalised)
UU - IFRS position UU - normalised to SVT assumptions
UU - normalised to PNN assumptions
Regulatory Capital Value (RCV)
48
Inflation and net additions driving RCV growth
United Utilities Water’s regulatory capital value (based on shadow RCV for AMP6, adjusted for actual spend) and presented in outturn prices. Shadow RCV at 31 March 2018 = £11,214m.
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Mar
-15
Sep
-15
Mar
-16
Sep
-16
Mar
-17
Sep
-17
Mar
-18
£m
Regulatory Capital Value (RCV)
RCV gearing
49
RCV gearing supports robust capital structure
RCV gearing1
within our target range, supporting a solid A3 credit
rating
1 RCV gearing calculated as group net debt / United Utilities Water’s regulatory capital value (based on shadow RCV for AMP6, adjusted for actual spend and presented in outturn prices. Shadow RCV at 31 March 2018 = £11,214.)
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Mar
-15
Sep
-15
Mar
-16
Sep
-16
Mar
-17
Sep
-17
Mar
-18
RCV gearing
Financingand hedging
Financing as at 31 March 2018
51
Headroom out to 2020
Nominal
£1,015m raised previously
First public bond issue since 2009• £300m raised with 7-year maturity• Well received by the market
£118m of private placements• €26m with 15-year maturity• €30m with 15-year maturity• HKD739m with 8-year maturity
Index-linked
Total of £165m CPI-linked debt raised previously
Total of £711m RPI-linked debt raised previously
c£2.2bn of c£2.5bn AMP6
financing already raised
Impact of RPI inflationShort-term timing differences – 2018/19
52
Regulated revenue
Dividend policy
Price limits for the 2018/19 financial year are based on the movement in RPI1 inflation between November 2016 and November 2017 (i.e. 3.9%)
Regulatory capital
value (RCV)
Dividends for the 2018/19 financial year are also based on the movement in RPI1 inflation between November 2016 and November 2017 (i.e. 3.9%) to mirror the inflationary uplift in price limits
Opening RCV is inflated by the movement in RPI1
inflation between March 2018 and March 2019
Plus RCV additions (from totex) during the year, gives 31 March 2019 RCV (used for year-end gearing calculation)
Index linked debt2
Debt on 3 month lag – adjustment to principal for 2018/19 is based on the movement in RPI1 inflation between January 2018 and January 2019
Debt on 8 month lag – adjustment to principal for 2018/19 is based on the movement in RPI1 inflation between July 2017 and July 2018
1 Retail Prices Index (RPI)2 Indexation of principal is calculated based on monthly movements in RPI
Cost of debt
53
Index-linked
c£3.7bn index-linked
Average cost of 1.3% real
Nominal
c£3.1bn nominal debt
Fixed for 2015-20 at an average rate of 3.2% nominal
Significant financing outperformance
HedgingPolicies updated in preparation for AMP7
Thorough policies review in response to two key drivers:
1. PR19 regulatory model changes
2. Pensions move to self-sufficiency
54
Inflation hedging
• Around 50% of net debt to be maintained in index-linked form
Interest rate hedging
• Maintain a fixed rate, 10-year, reducing balance on nominal debt
• No ‘top up’ hedge at the start of each AMP
Risk reduction – interest rate hedging policy AMP6
55
Aims to minimise regulatory risk10-yr rolling interest rate profileLock in rolling 10-year average interest rate on nominal debt
Post additional AMP6 hedgingSubstantively fixed rates for whole of AMP6 then revert to reducing balance fixing on nominal debt
• AMP6 cost of debt set through PR14 process
• UU keeps index-linked debt un-swapped as a good match for the RCV which is also RPI-linked to 2020
• During FY14/15 UU substantively fixed underlying rates on nominal floating rate debt for AMP6, whilst continuing with 10-year reducing balance policy post 2020
• During AMP6 UU has then continued to fix in line with its 10-year reducing balance policy
• Manages uncertainty regarding Ofwat’s approach to setting the cost of debt at future price reviews
Risk reduction – revised interest rate hedging policy AMP7
56
Aims to minimise regulatory risk• Ofwat PR19 methodology changes:
• 50% of AMP7 opening RCV linked to RPI and 50% linked to CPIH with post-2020 new additions linked to CPIH
• Cost of debt allowance will be fixed for the embedded portion (70%) with indexation applied for the new debt portion (30%)
• UU hedging policies review:• UU aims to maintain around half of its net debt in
index-linked form• Will look to issue in CPI/CPIH-linked form and/or
swap existing RPI-linked where efficient to do so• UU keeps index-linked debt un-swapped as a
partial inflation hedge for the RCV• 10-year reducing balance policy on nominal debt
continues, but we will not substantively fix at the start of AMP7 to better align with the debt indexation mechanism
Start of AMP7 illustrative hedging profile c70% of nominal debt is fixed at the start of AMP7
70%
Financing and liquidity at 31 March 2018
57
£780.1m, Yankee bonds (USD)
£636.1m, Euro bonds (EUR)
£1,544.2m, GBP bonds
£1,990.6m, GBP RPI linked bonds
£168.0m, GBP CPI linked bonds
£1,571.2m, EIB and other RPI linked loans
£637.5m, Other EIB loans
£584.6m, Other borrowings
Gross debt = £7,912.3mHeadroom / prefunding = £435.2m
£m
Cash and short-term deposits 510.0
Medium-term committed bank facilities1 650.0
Short-term debt (174.3)
Term debt maturing within one year (550.5)
Total headroom / prefunding 435.2
1 Includes £50m of facilities with a forward start in June 2018 and excludes £100m facilities maturing within one year
Debt structure at 31 March 2018
58
United Utilities PLCBaa1 stable; BBB stable
United Utilities Water LimitedA3 stable; A- stable
Ring-fenced and regulated by Ofwat
Yankees:• $250m in 18s• $350m in 19s• $400m in 28s
•£150m in 18s • €500m in 20s• £375m in 22s• £300m in 27s• £50m in 32s1
• £200m in 35s
Other debt:• EIB index-linked loans £1,059m1
• Other index-linked loans £300m1
• Other EIB loans £638m• Short-term loans £45m• ¥10bn dual currency loan• Other sterling loans £128m
•£20m in 43s1
• £50m in 46s1
• £50m in 49s1
• £510m in 56s1
• £150m in 57s1
• £100m in 35s1
• £35m in 37s1
• £70m in 39s1
• £100m in 40s1
• £50m in 41s1
• £100m in 42s1
Euro MTNs:
United Utilities Group PLC
United Utilities Water Finance PLC3
Guaranteed by United Utilities Water Ltd
Euro MTNs:• £25m in 25s1
• £300m in 25s• HK$739m in 26s• HK$830m in 27s• €52m in 27s• £20m in 28s1
• £35m in 30s1
• €30m in 30s• €30m in 31s• HK$600m in 31s• £38m in 31s1
• £20m in 31s2
• €26m in 32s • €28m in 32s
• €30m in 33s• £27m in 36s1
• £29m in 36s1
• £20m in 36s2
• £60m in 37s2
• £32m in 48s2
• £33m in 57s2
Other debt:• Short-term loans £117m
1 RPI linked finance2 CPI linked finance3 United Utilities Water Finance PLC (UUWF) is a financing subsidiary of United Utilities Water Limited (UUW) established to issue new listed debt on behalf of UUW. Notes issued by UUWF are unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by UUW and are rated in line with UUW’s credit ratings.
Term debt maturity profile as at 31 March 20181
59
1 Future repayments of index-linked debt include inflation based on an average annual RPI rate of 3% and an average annual CPI rate of 2%
Average term to maturity of just under 20 years
European Investment Bank funding maturity profile
60
Notes
Future repayments of EIB RPI linked debt include inflation based on an average annual RPI rate of 3%.
Dark blue areas represent EIB loans currently drawn and outstanding.
Light blue areas represent a further £250m AMP6 loan assuming this will be signed and drawn in 2018 (being the second tranche of a £500m AMP6 funding package approved by EIB in 2016). It is assumed that this loan will be drawn down in floating rate tranches on an amortising repayment basis with an average loan life of approximately 10-years.
Economic regulation -PR14
Ofwat’s legal duties
62
• Ensure companies properly carry out their functions
• Ensure companies can finance their functions
• Protect interests of consumers, wherever appropriate by promoting effective competition
• Secure the long-term resilience of water and sewerage systems1
Primary Secondary
• Promoting economy and efficiency
• Contributing to the achievement of sustainable development
• Ensure Ofwat gives no undue preference1
1 added as part of the Water Act 2014
Regulatory capital value
63
Market capitalisation(shortly after flotation)
Pre 2015: Capital investment2015-20: RCV additions (from totex)
Regulatory capital value (RCV)
+
Plus other adjustments at each price control
-
Pre 2015: Capital charges2015-20: RCV run-off
+/-
Inflation adjustment
=
Ofwat’s final determination – December 2014
64
Weighted average cost of capital 2015-20
Debt
Real pre tax 2.59%1
Equity
Real post tax 5.65%
WACCAppointee business (vanilla, real) 3.74%
2,3
Includes retail margin allowance of 0.14%
Wholesale business (vanilla, real) 3.60%2
Notional gearing 62.5%
1 Assumes ratio of 75% embedded debt / 25% new debt. Cost of embedded debt = 2.75% & cost of new debt = 2.1%. 2 Quoted ratios for non-enhanced companies. Enhanced companies received a slightly higher appointee WACC of 3.85%/ wholesale WACC of 3.70%3 2010-15 WACC (vanilla, real) of 5.1%; derived from pre-tax debt of 3.6%, post-tax equity of 7.1% and a notional gearing of 57.5%
Ofwat’s final determination – December 2014
65
Allowed revenues
£m 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 AMP6 total
Wholesale water (2012/13 prices) 654 660 666 672 679 3,331
Wholesale wastewater (2012/13 prices) 775 783 792 800 804 3,954
Wholesale revenue (2012/13 prices) 1,429 1,443 1,458 1,472 1,483 7,285
Retail household (nominal prices) 132 128 121 116 119 616
Retail Non-household (nominal prices) 36 37 37 38 38 186
Retail revenue (nominal prices) 168 165 158 154 157 802
Total revenue (variable price base)* 1,597 1,608 1,616 1,626 1,640 8,087
* Not consistent with statutory accounting / IFRS revenues
Ofwat’s final determination – December 2014Adjustments for 2010-15 performance
66
Revenue adjustments
largely accepted: £132m allowed
relating to 2010-15 period
Good serviceability
performance: did not receive a
penalty
Derives mainly from revenue correction mechanism and opex incentive allowance
Significant improvements in SIM moved UU into no penalty
zone
All four asset classes rated at least ‘stable’ for 2013/14
Notable achievement given AMP5 starting position as an outlier
67
Wholesale totex FD threshold of £5,328m1
(2012/13 prices)
Wholesale totex in revenue calculation of £5,296m2
(2012/13 prices)
Wholesale ‘pay as you go’ ratios:water = 66%, wastewater = 50%
Allowed wholesale revenue of £7,285m (2012/13 prices)
Nominal growth in the RCV of c£1.5bn (c15%) across AMP6 2015-20
Ofwat’s final determination – December 2014Wholesale price controls
£188m below UU October proposal of £5,516m
but
£427m higher than DD, reflecting additional totex exclusions accepted
Split:£2,356m water and £2,940m wastewater
‘Pay as you go’ ratio flexed in line with allowed totex
Split: £3,331m water and £3,954m wastewater
Comprising c£0.2bn real growth and c£1.3bn RPI uplift (assuming 2.5% p.a. RPI)
1 Includes pension deficit repair allowances2 Combines Ofwat’s estimates of efficient costs with the companies’ forecasts in the ratio 75:25. Excludes pension deficit repair allowances
Ofwat’s final determination – December 2014Retail price controls
68
Allowed retail household revenue of
£616m (nominal
prices)
£20m p.a. special factor claim1 relating
to income deprivation
allowed
No inflationary increases
allowed on retail price
controls
Allowed retail non-household
revenue of £186m
(nominal prices)
1 Reflects impact of the extreme levels of deprivation in the North West on our costs, and includes bad debt and associated costs
Ofwat’s final determination – December 2014Average household bills
69
*Assumes 3% p.a. RPI inflation from 2017/18 to 2019/20
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
£/h
ou
seh
old
Average household customer bill - combined (£)
RPI*
Average bill
Economic regulation -Water 2020 and PR19
Water 2020Adjustments for 2010-15 performance
71
Sludgedisposal
Water resourcesSludge treatment,
transport and disposalWater network plus Wastewater network plus
Market reform – Water 2020
Achieve full allowance across all four price controls
Direct procurement for enhancement projects >£100m
Sludgetreatment
Sewagetreatment
Sewercollection
Treated waterdistributionWater
treatmentRaw waterdistribution
Water resources
Ofwat’s final methodology for PR19 – 13 Dec 2017
72
• Indicative WACC of 2.4%1
• Industry average WACC based on notional company with 60% gearing
• Debt indexation to apply for new debt now assumed to be 30% of total debt
• CPIH to be adopted for the indexation of future price controls
Cost of debt Cost of equity
1.33% 4.01%
Gearing
60%
Appointee WACC
2.40%
Retail margin adjustment 0.10%
Wholesale WACC 2.30%
Calculation of vanilla, real RPI WACC
1 Appointee business (vanilla, real RPI)
Ofwat’s final methodology for PR19 - 13 Dec 2017Summary
73
We are advanced in our plans for PR19 informed by extensive customer engagement and aligned to Ofwat’s key themes
Greater emphasis on earning outperformance payments through innovative performance for the benefit of customers
Reset of the ODI framework driving for increased comparability and rewarding truly significant performance improvement
New econometric models to better reflect genuine cost drivers for wholesale and retail price controls
Indicative WACC of 2.4%; companies can still out / underperform depending upon the effectiveness of their treasury management
PR19 will present both challenges and opportunities – our business performance and exploitation of innovation provides a platform to harness the benefits available
Well positioned for PR19
74
Leading performer in AMP6
Leading on• Customer satisfaction• Environmental performance• Operational performance• Corporate governance
Outperforming against the
regulatory contract and sharing with customers
PR19 business plan on track
Active contribution to
development of PR19 methodology
Extensive engagement and co-creation with customers and other stakeholders
Addressing affordability and
vulnerability
Confident heading into AMP7 and beyond
Opportunity to earn
reward for stretching performance
Systems Thinking setting new benchmarks
PR19 timetable
75
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2019 20202018
Companies submit business plans
3 Sep 2018
Ofwat initial assessment of business plansLate Jan 2019
Exceptional / Fast track draft determination
Mar/Apr 2019
Slow track draft determinationJuly 2019
Final determinationDec 2019
Cautionary statement
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the operations, performance and financial condition of the United Utilities group. By their nature, these statements involve uncertainty since future events and circumstances can cause results and developments to differ materially from those anticipated. The forward-looking statements reflect knowledge and information available at the date of preparation of this presentation and the company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast.
Certain regulatory performance data contained in this presentation is subject to regulatory audit.