-6-4

-20

24

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1-4.8

GDP GrowthAnnualized Percentage Change

-50

5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1-7.0

Industrial ProductionAnnualized Percentage Change

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q10.3

GDP GrowthPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-15

-10

-50

5

Apr-15.0

Industrial ProductionPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

United States Output Indicators

May 22, 2020Source: Haver

-6-4

-20

24

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1-5.3

Personal Consumption ExpendituresPercentage points

-6-4

-20

24

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1-1.0

Investment and InventoriesPercentage points

-6-4

-20

24

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q11.3

Net Exports of Goods and ServicesPercentage points

-6-4

-20

24

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q10.1

Government Consumption and InvestmentPercentage points

United States Contribution to Change in GDP (1)

May 22, 2020NOTE: All of the above are seasonally adjusted data at annual rates in real dollars.Source: Haver Analytics

-2-1

01

2

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1-0.4

Fixed InvestmentPercentage points

-2-1

01

2

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1-0.5

InventoriesPercentage points

-2-1

01

2

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q12.3

ImportsPercentage points

-2-1

01

2

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1-1.0

ExportsPercentage points

United States Contribution to Change in GDP (2)

May 22, 2020NOTE: All of the above are seasonally adjusted data at annual rates in real dollars.Source: Haver Analytics

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

120

125

130

135

Apr120.1

Leading Indicators Composite Index2010 = 100

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

4045

5055

6065

Apr41.5

Apr41.8

Manu. Non-Manu.

Institute for Supply ManagementPMI and NMI Composite Indexes

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

01

23

4

Mar0.1

Real Personal Disposable IncomePercent Change Over Year-Ago Level, Chained 2005 Dollars

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-6-4

-20

24

Mar-5.0

Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

United States Growth Indicators

May 22, 2020Source: Haver; Leading Indicators Composite Index Source: The Conference Board

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

4045

5055

60

Apr41.5

General Conditions for ManufacturingDiffusion Index

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2030

4050

6070

Apr27.5Apr26.0

Manu. Non-Manu.

Current Production/ActivityDiffusion Index

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

3040

5060

70

Apr27.1

Apr30.0

Manu. Non-Manu.

New OrdersDiffusion Index

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

3040

5060

70

Apr27.5

Apr30.0

Manu. Non-Manu.

EmploymentDiffusion Index

United States ISM Diffusion Index

May 22, 2020Source: Haver

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

220

230

240

250

Mar235.6

Durable GoodsBillions of dollars

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

6065

7075

80

Mar73.6

Mar65.9

Total Excl. Aircraft

Nondefense Capital GoodsBillions of dollars

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

5055

60

Mar48.3

Motor Vehicles and PartsBillions of dollars

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2425

2627

2829 Mar

28.5

Computer and Electronic ProductsBillions of dollars

United States Manufacturers' Shipments

May 22, 2020NOTE: Seasonally adjustedSource: Haver

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

23

45

67

Feb3.4

Mar4.2

Case-Shiller Core Logic

PricesPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

Apr0.65Mar0.63

Starts Sales

New Single Family HousingMillions of Units

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

4.0

4.5

5.0

Apr3.94

Existing Single Family Home SalesMillions of Units

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q10.74

Residential InvestmentPercentage Point Contribution to GDP Growth

United States Housing Indicators

May 22, 2020NOTE: Core Logic price data exclude distressed salesSource: Haver

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Apr0.3

Apr1.4

Overall CPI Core CPI

Consumer PricesPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Mar1.3

Mar1.7

Overall PCE Core PCE

Personal Consumption ExpenditurePercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

12

34

5

Q11.7Q11.5

Compensation Unit Labor Cost

Compensation per Hour and Unit Labor CostPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2.0

2.5

3.0

Q13.11

Q12.08

Wages Benefits

Employment Cost IndexPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

United States Price and Cost Indicators

May 22, 2020NOTE: Unit Labor Cost and Compensation are from the Nonfarm Business Sector.Source: Haver

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Apr0.3

TotalPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

Apr1.43

Total Excluding Food and EnergyPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Apr-0.9

Commodities excluding Food and EnergyPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

Apr2.18

Services excluding EnergyPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

United States Consumer Price Index

May 22, 2020Source: Haver

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

24

68

1012

1416

Apr14.7

Unemployment RatePercent

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

010

020

030

0

Apr294

Unemployment, Whole EconomyPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-15

-10

-50

Apr-12.9

Non-Farm Payroll EmploymentPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-20

-15

-10

-50

5

Apr-17.3

Hours Worked: Private Non-Farm PayrollsPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

United States Employment

May 22, 2020Source: Haver

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

Q49.81

Corporate ProfitsPercent of Nominal GDP

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

Q41.59

Corporate Profits: Payments AbroadPercent of Nominal GDP

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Q47.3

Corporate Profits: Domestic IndustriesPercent of Nominal GDP

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

Q44.09

Corporate Profits: Receipts from AbroadPercent of Nominal GDP

United States Corporate Profits

May 22, 2020NOTE: Corporate profits include inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Total profits equal domestic industries plus receipts from abroad minus payments abroad.Source: Haver

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

180

200

220

240

260

280

Mar232

Mar188

Imports Exports

Goods and ServicesSA, Bil.$

-600

-550

-500

-450

-400

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q4-439

Current Account BalanceSAAR, Bill.$

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

Mar-44.4

Trade BalanceSA, Bil.$

-2-1

01

2

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q11.3

Net Export Contribution to Real GDPSAAR, percent

United States Trade Indicators

May 22, 2020Source: Haver, Bureau of Economic Analysis/U.S. Census.

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1718

1920

2122

23

Q421.9

Q117.0

Private Saving Private Domestic Investment

Private Saving and Investment

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1819

2021

22

Q417.8

Q120.5

Saving Domestic Investment

Saving and Investment

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-4-2

02

4

Q4-4.0

Q13.5

Government Saving Government Investment

Government Saving and Investment

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

Q4-2.6

Q4-2.0

Saving Gap Net Foreign Investment

Saving Gap and Net Foreign Investment

United States Gross Saving and Investment as a Percent of Nominal GDP

May 22, 2020NOTE: The saving gap (S-I) and Net Foreign Investment differ by a statistical discrepancy. NFI plus some small adjustment factors equals the Current Account.Source: Haver

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

01

23

4

May 220.1

May 220.7

Short Long

Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates3-month Treasury Bill Rate, 10-year Treasury Yield

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

05

1015

2025

30 Apr26.3

Apr4.7

C&I Loans RE Loans

Bank CreditPercent Change Over Year-Ago Level

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

May 210.0

Monetary PolicyFederal Funds Rate (Effective)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2000

2500

3000

3500

May 222955

Stock Market IndexStandard & Poor's 500 Composite

United States Financial Indicators

May 22, 2020NOTE: C&I Loans equals Commercial and Industrial Loans. RE Loans equals Real Estate Loans.Source: Haver

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

May 221.09

May 220.92

Dollars per Euro Euros per Dollar

Dollar-Euro Exchange Rates

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

100

105

110

115

120

May 22107.6

Yen per Dollar

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

110

115

120

125

130

135

May 15126.6

May 22129.3

Narrow Broad

Nominal Effective Exchange RateMajor Currency Index, 2010=100

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

110

115

120

125

130

Apr126.1Apr125.4

Narrow Broad

Real Effective Exchange RateMajor Currency Index, 2010=100

United States Exchange Rates

May 22, 2020Source: Board of Governors, J.P. Morgan, Wall Street Journal