United States Department of Agriculture National ... › Newsroom › Executive... · 6/28/2019...
Transcript of United States Department of Agriculture National ... › Newsroom › Executive... · 6/28/2019...
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12:00 P.M.
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Acreage
Grain Stocks
Rice Stocks
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief
Crops BranchJune 28, 2019
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
Field Crops Stocks
Planted Acres Corn
Harvested Acres Soybeans
Sorghum
Rice
All Wheat
Barley
Oats
Dry Peas
Lentils
Chickpeas
Rapeseed
Canola
Flaxseed
Rye
Contents
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
Precipitation: March 30-June 26
Percent of Normal
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June APS June AreaOff-Farm Grain
Stock Survey
Survey Type Farmer Reported Farmer Reported Reported
Collection MethodMail, Phone, Internet,
Personal Interview Personal Interview
Mail, Phone,
Internet, Personal
Interview
Crops Included Field Crops Field CropsGrains and Oilseeds
On Hand
States All Except HIAll Except AK and
HI
All Except AK, HI,
and NV
Sample Size 68,093 Farms 9,045 Segments ~ 8,500 Facilities
Collection Period May 30 – June 17 May 30 – June 14 May 30 – June 18
Survey Overview
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Year Principal CropsChange From
Previous Year
Million Acres
2010 315.4 -3.6
2011 314.3 -1.1
2012 324.3 +10.0
2013 324.9 +0.6
2014 326.7 +1.7
2015 319.0 -7.6
2016 319.0 -0.1
2017 318.3 -0.6
2018 319.6 +1.2
2019 309.3 -10.3
Principal Crops Planted AcreageUnited States
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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309
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
330
335
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Million AcresPrincipal Crops
United States
Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June 2019 Acreage
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Corn
Planted Mil Ac 91.7 -1.2 +2.9
Harvested Mil Ac 83.6 NA +2.3
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91.7
83.6
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Million AcresCorn AcresUnited States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
81.0
83.0
85.0
87.0
89.0
91.0
93.0
March June Final
Million Acres
2019 United States Corn AcresIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June 2019 Acreage
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Soybeans
Planted Mil Ac 80.0 -5.4 -10.3
Harvested Mil Ac 79.3 NA -10.0
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80.0
79.3
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Million AcresSoybean Acres
United States
Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
89.0
March June Final
Million Acres
2019 United States Soybean AcresIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
June 2019 Acreage
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Season
All Cotton
Planted Mil Ac 13.7 -0.4 -2.7
Upland Cotton
Planted Mil Ac 13.4 -0.6 -2.9
Pima Cotton
Planted Thou Ac 275 +7.8 +9.9
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13.7
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Million AcresAll Cotton Acres
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
March June Final
Million Acres2019 United States Cotton AcresIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June 2019 Acreage
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Season
Winter Wheat
Planted Mil Ac 31.8 +0.9 -2.3
Harvested Mil Ac 24.9 -1.2 +0.7
Spring Wheat
Planted Mil Ac 12.4 -3.1 -5.8
Harvested Mil Ac 12.1 NA -6.0
Durum Wheat
Planted Mil Ac 1.40 -1.3 -32.2
Harvested Mil Ac 1.36 NA -31.1
All Wheat
Planted Mil Ac 45.6 -0.3 -4.6
Harvested Mil Ac 38.4 NA -3.0
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31.8
24.9
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
December March June Final
Million Acres2019 United States Winter Wheat Acres
Industry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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12.4
12.1
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Million AcresOther Spring Wheat Acres
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
11.9
12.2
12.5
12.8
13.1
13.4
13.7
14.0
March June Final
Million Acres
2019 United States Other Spring Wheat AcresIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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1.40
1.36
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Million AcresDurum Wheat Acres
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
March June Final
Million Acres
2019 United States Durum Wheat AcresIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June 2019 Acreage
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Season
Planted Area
Sorghum Mil Ac 5.13 -0.2 -9.9
Oats Mil Ac 2.55 -0.2 -7.2
Barley Mil Ac 2.86 +12.0 +12.3
Harvested Area
All Hay Mil Ac 52.8 -0.6 -0.1
Alfalfa Mil Ac 16.8 NA +1.3
Other Hay Mil Ac 35.9 NA -0.8
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June 2019 Acreage
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Season
Planted Area
Rice Mil Ac 2.76 -4.0 -6.4
Peanuts Mil Ac 1.36 -5.9 -4.3
Sugarbeets Mil Ac 1.13 +0.6 +1.2
Dry Beans Mil Ac 1.31 +5.7 -37.0
Potatoes Thou Ac 968 NA +0.1
Harvested Area
Sugarcane Thou Ac 916 NA +1.8
Tobacco Thou Ac 236 -3.4 -19.1
Hops Thou Ac 57.3 NA +4.2
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June 2019 Acreage
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Season
Planted
Dry Peas Mil Ac 1.03 +16.6 +19.9Dry Beans Mil Cwt 29.2 +1.8 NALentils Thou Ac 535 -3.6 -31.4
Chickpeas Thou Ac 560 +7.8 -34.9
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June 2019 Acreage
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Season
Planted
Sunflower Mil Ac 1.38 +2.3 +6.1
Canola Mil Ac 2.02 +6.0 +1.4
Flaxseed Thou Ac 355 NA +70.7
Safflower Thou Ac 153 NA -8.7
Mustard Seed Thou Ac 110 NA +7.3
Rye Mil Ac 1.88 NA -6.8
Proso Millet Thou Ac 433 NA -2.3
Rapeseed Thou Ac 14.8 NA +159.6
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
Biotech Varieties
% of All Planted Acres
Crop
2018 2019 2018 2019
Corn 10 9 2 3
Soybeans 94 94 - -
Upland Cotton 9 6 3 3
Crop
2018 2019 2018 2019
Corn 80 80 92 92
Soybeans - - 94 94
Upland Cotton 82 89 94 98
Insect Resistant (Bt)
Only
Stacked Gene All Biotech Varieties
Herbicide Resistant
Only
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
Percent of Acres Remaining
To Be Planted
Crop 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Corn 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.6 16.7
Soybeans 15.5 12.4 10.9 8.5 41.2
Cotton 21.5 17.3 16.2 15.3 16.1
Other Spring Wheat 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 2.5
Durum Wheat 3.6 6.6 2.6 3.0 4.6
Sorghum 17.6 14.4 12.3 18.4 21.6
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
Soybeans, -9,156
Dry Beans, -774
S Wheat, -770
W Wheat, -757
D Wheat, -664
Sorghum, -565
Cotton, -380
Chickpeas, -300
Oats, -197
Rice, -190
Rye, -136
Hay, -66
Potatoes, -66
Peanuts, -62
Tobacco, -56
Proso Millet, -10
Sugarbeets, 14
Sugarcane, 17
Canola, 27
Sunflowers, 79
Barley, 314
Corn, 2,571
Principal Crop Planted Acres (000) ChangesUnited States: 2019 Compared With 2018
Harvested Acres for Hay, Tobacco & Sugarcane
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June Grain Stocks
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Year
Stocks
Corn Bil Bu 5.20 NA -1.9
Soybeans Bil Bu 1.79 NA +46.8
Sorghum Mil Bu 115 NA +75.5
Canola Mil Lbs 324 NA +67.4
Rice Mil Cwt 65.8 NA +46.1
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June Grain Stocks
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Year
Stocks
All Wheat Bil Bu 1.07 NA -2.4
Barley Mil Bu 86.6 NA -8.4
Oats Mil Bu 36.9 NA -10.0
Rye Thou Bu 398 NA -32.9
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
June Grain Stocks
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit June Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Season
Stocks
Dry Peas Mil Cwt 4.50 NA +2.2
Lentils Mil Cwt 3.18 NA +80.9
A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 177 NA -34.4
Chickpeas Mil Cwt 3.47 NA +294.0
Small Thou Cwt 955 NA +256.3
Large Mil Cwt 2.51 NA +310.5
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13.7
14.7
14.1 13.4
11.7
14.7
15.4 15.3
16.9 16.916.6
5.20
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
Billion BushelsCorn Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
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USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
5.10
5.20
5.30
5.40
5.50
5.60
5.70
5.80
5.90
6.00
June
Billion Bushels
2019 United States Corn StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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3.17
3.50 3.48 3.31
3.21
3.50
4.024.12
4.49
4.71
4.98
1.79
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
![Page 45: United States Department of Agriculture National ... › Newsroom › Executive... · 6/28/2019 · National Agricultural Statistics Service Acreage Grain Stocks Rice Stocks Executive](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042315/5f03b9d07e708231d40a7787/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
June
Billion Bushels
2019 United States Soybean StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
![Page 46: United States Department of Agriculture National ... › Newsroom › Executive... · 6/28/2019 · National Agricultural Statistics Service Acreage Grain Stocks Rice Stocks Executive](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042315/5f03b9d07e708231d40a7787/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
2.82
2.87
3.14
2.86
2.99
2.85
2.62
2.81
3.28
2.922.98
1.07
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks
United States
Supply Sep Dec Mar JunUSDA-NASS
6-28-19
![Page 47: United States Department of Agriculture National ... › Newsroom › Executive... · 6/28/2019 · National Agricultural Statistics Service Acreage Grain Stocks Rice Stocks Executive](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042315/5f03b9d07e708231d40a7787/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
1.09
1.10
1.11
1.12
1.13
1.14
June
Billion Bushels
2019 United States All Wheat StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
![Page 48: United States Department of Agriculture National ... › Newsroom › Executive... · 6/28/2019 · National Agricultural Statistics Service Acreage Grain Stocks Rice Stocks Executive](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042315/5f03b9d07e708231d40a7787/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
228
245
273
227
236
220
249
236
263
217
248
65.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
Million HundredweightRough Rice Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Aug
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
![Page 49: United States Department of Agriculture National ... › Newsroom › Executive... · 6/28/2019 · National Agricultural Statistics Service Acreage Grain Stocks Rice Stocks Executive](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042315/5f03b9d07e708231d40a7787/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
Release Date Report Title
July 1 CAIR: Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings
July 11 Crop Production
July 19 Cattle and Cattle on Feed
July 25 Census: Watersheds
July 31 Agricultural Prices
Upcoming Reports
![Page 50: United States Department of Agriculture National ... › Newsroom › Executive... · 6/28/2019 · National Agricultural Statistics Service Acreage Grain Stocks Rice Stocks Executive](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042315/5f03b9d07e708231d40a7787/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
USDA-NASS
6-28-19
![Page 51: United States Department of Agriculture National ... › Newsroom › Executive... · 6/28/2019 · National Agricultural Statistics Service Acreage Grain Stocks Rice Stocks Executive](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042315/5f03b9d07e708231d40a7787/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov
For Questions202-720-2127
800-727-9540