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Transcript of Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory...

Page 1: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

UnemploymentUnemployment

Page 2: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

1. Unemployment1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguoThe concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguo

us since in theory virtually anyone would be willing tus since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return for a generous enough compeo be employed in return for a generous enough compensation package.nsation package.

→→Economists define unemployment in terms of an indiEconomists define unemployment in terms of an individual’s willingness to be employed at some prevailinvidual’s willingness to be employed at some prevailing market wage.g market wage.

u ( unemployment rate ) =U/L

• Government statistic: U (temporary layoff waiting to be recalled , actively search for work in the previous week or month )

Page 3: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

Note: Limitations of unemployment rate dataNote: Limitations of unemployment rate data

→→For a number of reasons, they do not necessariFor a number of reasons, they do not necessarily provide an accurate reflection of the econoly provide an accurate reflection of the economic hardship that members of a group are suffmic hardship that members of a group are suffering.ering.

Page 4: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

1.1. Individuals who are not actively searching for Individuals who are not actively searching for work, including those who search unsuccessfully work, including those who search unsuccessfully and then gave up, are not counted among the and then gave up, are not counted among the unemployed. e.g., discouraged worker.unemployed. e.g., discouraged worker.

2.2. Unemployment statistics tell us nothing about the Unemployment statistics tell us nothing about the earnings levels of those who are employed.earnings levels of those who are employed.

3.3. A substantial fraction of the unemployed come A substantial fraction of the unemployed come from families in which other earners are present and from families in which other earners are present and the unemployed are often not the primary source of the unemployed are often not the primary source of their family support.their family support.

4.4. Unemployed receive some income support such as Unemployed receive some income support such as government unemployment compensation.government unemployment compensation.

5.5. Unemployment rate data tell us little about the Unemployment rate data tell us little about the fraction of the population that is employed.fraction of the population that is employed.

Page 5: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %

項目別 失 業 率

  93 94 95 96 97  全部 男性 女性 全部 男性 女性 全部 男性 女性 全部 男性 女性 全部 男性 女性

總  計 4.41

4.84

3.81

4.10

4.28

3.86

3.84

4.10

3.48

3.87

3.99

3.71

3.84

3.96

3.67

15~24歲 10.08

13.16

7.56

9.89

10.47

9.43

9.99

11.71

8.55

9.66

10.87

8.69

10.36

11.87

9.12

15~19歲 11.42

11.50

11.33

10.78

11.14

10.32

9.22

8.84

9.67

8.54

6.77

10.31

9.47

10.24

8.63

20~24歲 9.85

13.52

7.02

9.75

10.32

9.32

10.11

12.28

8.40

9.85

11.67

8.44

10.53

12.24

9.20

25~44歲 4.08 4.4

9 3.5

3 3.73

4.04

3.31

3.71 4.2

1 3.0

6 4.05

4.38

3.64

3.83 4.1

5 3.4

4

25~29歲 6.01 6.5

6 5.3

6 5.53

6.50

4.42

5.90 6.6

0 5.1

3 6.17

7.21

5.07

6.22 7.1

4 5.2

8

30~34歲 3.82 4.2

5 3.2

4 3.44

3.81

2.94

3.86 4.7

6 2.7

1 3.81

3.72

3.91

3.66 3.9

0 3.3

7

35~39歲 3.05 3.4

8 2.4

4 2.70

2.58

2.85

2.69 3.2

1 1.9

9 2.93

3.10

2.70

2.74 3.1

5 2.2

2

40~44歲 3.41

3.81

2.83

3.15

3.37

2.83

2.23

2.41

1.97

3.13

3.55

2.55

2.51

2.52

2.50

45~64歲 3.21

3.60

2.52

3.10

3.50

2.38

2.40

2.49

2.23

2.10

2.22

1.88

2.34

2.41

2.22

45~49歲 3.24

3.57

2.73

3.34

3.60

2.95

2.52

2.33

2.81

2.26

2.43

2.00

2.74

3.04

2.31

50~54歲 3.81

4.41

2.71

3.07

3.75

1.79

2.32

2.99

1.15

2.20

2.61

1.49

2.19

2.38

1.88

55~59歲 2.97

3.36

2.08

2.71

2.99

2.01

2.59

2.35

3.17

1.86

1.55

2.54

2.24

1.99

2.75

65歲及以上 0.10

0.13

-0.39

0.53

-0.26

0.24

0.30

0.05

0.06

-0.23

0.23

0.21

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業率 - 按年齡分

Page 6: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %項目別 失 業 率

  93 94 95 96 97

  全部

男性

女性

全部

男性

女性

全部

男性

女性

全部

男性

女性

全部

男性

女性

總  計 4.41

4.84

3.81

4.10

4.28

3.86

3.84

4.10

3.48

3.87

3.99

3.71

3.84

3.96

3.67

國中及以下4.16

4.88

2.91

4.08

4.74

2.92

3.30

3.70

2.61

3.40

3.79

2.72

3.62

4.00

2.94

國小及以下2.93

3.47

2.24

2.76

3.34

2.02

2.05

2.14

1.94

2.01

2.29

1.65

2.63

2.29

3.09

國中5.19

5.86

3.72

5.15

5.67

3.97

4.26

4.68

3.32

4.38

4.66

3.77

4.30

4.99

2.80

高中(職)4.89

5.36

4.29

4.29

4.51

4.01

4.27

4.56

3.89

4.27

4.44

4.06

4.06

4.06

4.06

高中 4.75

4.92

4.44

4.37

4.29

4.51

3.97

4.12

3.73

3.87

3.79

4.01

4.27

4.29

4.25

高職4.94

5.52

4.25

4.27

4.59

3.88

4.36

4.72

3.93

4.39

4.67

4.07

3.99

3.97

4.01

大專及以上4.09

4.18

3.99

3.92

3.57

4.35

3.82

3.99

3.61

3.82

3.70

3.95

3.78

3.85

3.70

大學及以上3.87

4.27

3.36

3.99

2.98

5.23

4.07

4.15

3.96

4.07

3.94

4.22

4.28

4.24

4.33

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業率 - 按教育程度分

Page 7: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

2. Types of Unemployment and Their Causes2. Types of Unemployment and Their Causes

(1)Frictional Unemployment

W

Employment

S0

D0

E0

W0

D0: Labor Demand S0 : Labor Supply

(W0, E0): Equilibrium Wage and Employment Level

Even in a market-equilibrium or full-employment situation there will still be some frictional unemployment, because some people will be “between jobs”.

Frictional unemployment arises because labor markets are inherently dynamic, because information flows are imperfect, and because it takes time for unemployed workers and employers with job vacancies to find each other.

Page 8: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

(2) Structural Unemployment

Structural unemployment arises when changes in the pattern of labor demand cause a mismatch between the skills demanded and supplied in a given area or cause an imbalance between the supplies and demands for workers across areas.

W

Employment

S0A

D0A D1A

E1A E0A

W0A

W

Employment

S0B

D0B D1B

W0B

W1B

E0B E1B

→Unemployment of E0A – E1A workers would be created in the short run.

Page 9: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

If wages were completely flexible and if costs of If wages were completely flexible and if costs of occupational or geographic mobility were low, occupational or geographic mobility were low, market adjustments would quickly eliminate this type market adjustments would quickly eliminate this type of unemployment.of unemployment.

Note: It has been argued that structural Note: It has been argued that structural unemployment may also arise if some employers are unemployment may also arise if some employers are paying above market-clearing (or efficiency) wages paying above market-clearing (or efficiency) wages to reduce employee turnover and/or shirking and to to reduce employee turnover and/or shirking and to increase productivity.increase productivity.

Page 10: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

(3) Demand-Deficient Unemployment

Demand-deficient unemployment occurs when a decline in aggregate demand in the output market causes the aggregate demand for labor to decline in the face of downward inflexibility in real wages.

W

W0

W2

E

S0

D0

D1

E0 E2 E1

If real wages are inflexible downward, E fall to E1,and E0 – E1 workers will become unemployed.→Flows into unemployment increase while flows into employed decline.

One appropriate government response to demand-deficient unemployment is to pursue macroeconomic policies to increase aggregate demand; these policies include increasing the level of government spending, reducing taxes, and increasing the rate of growth of the money supply.

Page 11: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

Why employers respond to a cyclical decline in demand by tempWhy employers respond to a cyclical decline in demand by temporarily laying off some of their work force rather than reducing rorarily laying off some of their work force rather than reducing real wages.eal wages.

a.a. Rigid money wage: employers are not free to unilaterally cut moRigid money wage: employers are not free to unilaterally cut money wages because of the presence of unions. ney wages because of the presence of unions.

b.b. The asymmetry of the information between employers and emplThe asymmetry of the information between employers and employees makes layoffs the preferred policy.oyees makes layoffs the preferred policy.

c.c. In the presence of investments in firm-specific human capital, laIn the presence of investments in firm-specific human capital, layoffs affect only the least-experienced workers, the workers in yoffs affect only the least-experienced workers, the workers in whom the firm has invested the smallest amount of resources.whom the firm has invested the smallest amount of resources.

→ →The firm will find choosing the layoff strategy a more profitablThe firm will find choosing the layoff strategy a more profitablee

alternative.alternative.d.d. A system of layoffs in which the newest employees are laid off fA system of layoffs in which the newest employees are laid off f

irst provides an implicit contract (a guarantee or form of insuranirst provides an implicit contract (a guarantee or form of insurance to experienced workers) that they will be immune to all but thce to experienced workers) that they will be immune to all but the severest declines in demand.e severest declines in demand.

→→They will be willing to pay for the stability by accepting lower They will be willing to pay for the stability by accepting lower wages.wages.

Page 12: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

(4) Seasonal Unemployment(4) Seasonal Unemployment Seasonal unemployment is similar to demand-deficiSeasonal unemployment is similar to demand-defici

ent unemployment in that it is induced by fluctuatioent unemployment in that it is induced by fluctuations in the demand for labor. However, the fluctuations in the demand for labor. However, the fluctuations can be regularly anticipated and follow a systemans can be regularly anticipated and follow a systematic pattern over the course of a year.tic pattern over the course of a year.

e.g., Agricultural employeee.g., Agricultural employee To attract workers to such seasonal industries, firm To attract workers to such seasonal industries, firm

will have to pay workers higher wages to compensawill have to pay workers higher wages to compensate them for being periodically unemployed.te them for being periodically unemployed.

→→The existence of compensating wage differentials mThe existence of compensating wage differentials makes it difficult to evaluate whether this type of uneakes it difficult to evaluate whether this type of unemployment is voluntary or involuntary in nature.mployment is voluntary or involuntary in nature.

Page 13: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

3. Job Search3. Job Search

Many theories claim to explain the existence and Many theories claim to explain the existence and persistence of unemployment in competitive markets. persistence of unemployment in competitive markets. Any given worker can choose from among many Any given worker can choose from among many different job offers. Because it takes time to learn different job offers. Because it takes time to learn about the opportunities provided by different about the opportunities provided by different employers, search activities prolong the duration of employers, search activities prolong the duration of the unemployment spell. The worker, however, is the unemployment spell. The worker, however, is willing to endure a longer unemployment spell willing to endure a longer unemployment spell because it might lead to a higher-paying job. In fact, because it might lead to a higher-paying job. In fact, search unemployment is a human capital investment search unemployment is a human capital investment in information. in information.

Page 14: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

(1) The Wage Offer Distribution(1) The Wage Offer Distribution To simplify the analysis, we assume that search activities are To simplify the analysis, we assume that search activities are

conducted only by unemployed workers. The wage offer conducted only by unemployed workers. The wage offer distribution gives the frequency distribution describing the distribution gives the frequency distribution describing the various offers available to a particular unemployed worker in various offers available to a particular unemployed worker in the labor market.the labor market.

The unemployed worker knows the shape of the wage offer The unemployed worker knows the shape of the wage offer distribution. Search activities, however, are costly. Each time distribution. Search activities, however, are costly. Each time the worker applies for a new job, he incurs transportation and the worker applies for a new job, he incurs transportation and other types of search costs. Moreover, he is also forgoing other types of search costs. Moreover, he is also forgoing earnings: He could have been working at a lower-paying job. earnings: He could have been working at a lower-paying job. The worker’s economic trade-offs are clear: The longer he The worker’s economic trade-offs are clear: The longer he searches, the more likely he will get a high wage offer; the searches, the more likely he will get a high wage offer; the longer he searches, however, the more it costs to find that job.longer he searches, however, the more it costs to find that job.

Page 15: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

(2) The Asking Wage(2) The Asking Wage

The asking wage is the threshold wage that The asking wage is the threshold wage that determines if the unemployed worker accepts or determines if the unemployed worker accepts or rejects incoming job offers. There is a clear link rejects incoming job offers. There is a clear link between a worker’s asking wage and the length of the between a worker’s asking wage and the length of the unemployment spell the worker will experience. unemployment spell the worker will experience. Workers who have low asking wages will find Workers who have low asking wages will find acceptable jobs very quickly and the unemployment acceptable jobs very quickly and the unemployment spell will be short. Workers with high asking wages spell will be short. Workers with high asking wages will take a long time to find an acceptable job and the will take a long time to find an acceptable job and the unemployment spell will be very long.unemployment spell will be very long.

Page 16: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

Dollars

MR

MC

Wage Offer at Hand

The Determination of the Asking Wage

0 $5 $10 $20 $25w~

The marginal revenue curve gives the gain from an additional search. It is downward sloping because the better the offer at hand, the less there is to gain from an additional search. The marginal cost curve gives the cost of an additional search. It is upward sloping because the better the job offer at hand, the greater the opportunity cost of an additional search. The asking wage equates the marginal revenue and the marginal cost of search.

Page 17: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

The worker’s asking wage will respond to changes The worker’s asking wage will respond to changes in the benefits and costs of search activities. in the benefits and costs of search activities. Workers with high discount rates are present-Workers with high discount rates are present-oriented, and hence perceive the future benefits oriented, and hence perceive the future benefits from search to be low.from search to be low.

A major component of search costs is the A major component of search costs is the opportunity cost resulting from rejecting a job offer opportunity cost resulting from rejecting a job offer and continuing the search. The unemployment and continuing the search. The unemployment insurance (UI) system, compensates workers who insurance (UI) system, compensates workers who are unemployed and who are actively engaging in are unemployed and who are actively engaging in search activities. Unemployment insurance benefits, search activities. Unemployment insurance benefits, therefore, reduce the marginal cost of search.therefore, reduce the marginal cost of search.

(3) Determinants of the Asking Wage(3) Determinants of the Asking Wage

Page 18: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %  找 尋 工 作 方 法

Item 託親友師長介紹 向私立就業服務機構登記求職 應徵廣告、招貼

年齡 年 93 95 97 93 95 97 93 95 97

15~24歲 53.44

57.36

52.63

19.13

20.46

28.54

84.40

74.73

62.94

15~19歲 62.05

75.32

77.62

18.26 8.84

19.73

85.32

80.50

66.98

20~24歲 51.66

54.68

48.36

19.31

22.20

30.05

84.21

73.87

62.25

25~44歲 61.27

60.09

54.05

22.08

26.28

32.91

74.53

69.63

67.67

25~29歲 57.39

59.02

46.90

23.26

29.80

35.13

78.46

71.69

65.45

30~34歲 60.02

62.02

59.86

27.96

22.92

33.43

70.67

70.24

70.00

35~39歲 66.47

60.41

57.52

21.75

19.14

29.19

77.73

67.40

73.20

40~44歲 65.09

59.50

60.88

13.62

30.21

30.24

68.65

65.37

63.96

45歲及以上 68.52

57.24

66.18

14.25

15.12

27.92

57.75

50.24

61.51

45~49歲 62.33

51.53

66.02

16.40 8.92

34.47

59.92

45.95

66.33

50歲及以上 73.23

61.57

66.33

12.62

19.82

21.58

56.09

53.50

56.85

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業者找尋工作方法 - 按年齡分

Page 19: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %  找 尋 工 作 方 法 ( 續 )

Item 向公立就業服務機

構登記求職 參加政府考試分發 其 他

年齡 年 93 95 97 93 95 97 93 95 97

15~24歲 15.77

20.77

28.70

5.78 6.74

9.87

0.71

1.20

-

15~19歲 18.63

15.55

38.25 - -

-- -

-

20~24歲 15.18

21.55

27.07

6.97 7.74

11.56

0.86

1.38

-

25~44歲 11.99

22.20

23.73

6.61 8.31

9.34

5.26

4.07

0.44

25~29歲 9.90

21.34

23.15

9.22

12.09

14.51

5.60

4.41

1.02

30~34歲 13.53

24.37

21.16

8.89 9.43

10.52

5.30

1.52

-

35~39歲 11.96

22.02

22.89

1.65 4.63

2.68

3.72

6.71

-

40~44歲 14.17

21.17

30.23

3.78 -

0.87

6.01

4.37

-

45歲及以上 29.79

33.90

33.47

0.30 -

-1.9

03.5

61.7

1

45~49歲 23.60

30.52

31.33

0.69 -

-3.0

47.0

92.5

3

50歲及以上 34.50

36.45

35.54 - -

-1.0

40.8

80.9

2

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業者找尋工作方法 - 按年齡分 ( 續 )

Page 20: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %  找 尋 工 作 方 法

Item 託親友師長介紹 向私立就業服務機構登記求職 應徵廣告、招貼

教育程度 年 93 95 97 93 95 97 93 95 97

國中及以下 71.60

69.12

67.33

14.37

15.56

21.36

61.31

59.22

65.54

國小及以下 75.25

59.31

60.59 9.17

8.42

20.64

40.65

40.73

59.50

國中 69.92

72.73

70.26

16.76

18.19

21.67

70.82

66.02

68.17

高中(職) 59.90

64.18

65.01

19.73

22.63

31.59

82.64

76.25

72.52

高中 60.70

68.00

66.11

21.98

20.81

36.30

85.46

68.90

70.79

高職 59.66

63.06

64.64

19.03

23.17

29.98

81.76

78.41

73.12

大專及以上 52.11

46.67

41.17

24.64

27.60

35.70

72.89

62.80

58.66

專科 55.75

54.15

50.92

19.30

27.19

39.82

79.41

70.84

67.16

大學及以上 47.61

40.61

35.82

31.24

27.93

33.44

64.83

56.29

53.99

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業者找尋工作方法 - 按教育程度分

Page 21: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %  找 尋 工 作 方 法 ( 續 )

Item 向公立就業服務機

構登記求職 參加政府考試分發 其 他

教育程度 年 93 95 97 93 95 97 93 95 97

國中及以下 16.52

24.81

31.42 - -

-1.7

63.3

4-

國小及以下 26.69

35.99

45.41 - -

-1.9

8 --

國中 11.84

20.70

25.36 - -

-1.6

64.5

7-

高中(職) 16.96

22.73

23.32 1.72 1.18

2.09

2.67

2.02

0.62

高中 15.50

17.35

23.74 0.45 2.03

1.78

0.36

0.09

-

高職 17.41

24.32

23.17 2.11 0.93

2.19

3.39

2.58

0.83

大專及以上 15.89

24.80

27.29

14.26

16.19

17.31

5.94

4.60

0.85

專科 14.25

27.23

25.78 8.57 3.58

7.03

7.20

5.31

-

大學及以上 17.92

22.83

28.12

21.29

26.39

22.95

4.38

4.02

1.31

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業者找尋工作方法 - 按教育程度分 ( 續 )

Page 22: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %  失 業 期 間

Item 1 ~ 2 週 3 ~4 週 5 ~ 13 週年齡 年 93 95 97 93 95 97 93 95 97

15~24歲 12.36

11.46

13.18

11.55

14.39

12.76

27.31

29.03

32.25

15~19歲 21.66

22.17

29.44 2.26 6.99

18.04

18.31

35.88

28.69

20~24歲 10.47 9.88

10.43

13.45

15.48

11.87

29.15

28.02

32.85

25~44歲7.89 7.27

8.54 11.3

7 13.6

3 8.79

22.09

23.41

24.86

25~29歲 6.68 6.12

8.36 14.1

9 15.7

6 10.4

3 22.5

0 25.3

2 26.6

0

30~34歲7.23 5.85

8.23 10.7

8 12.9

2 8.36

26.62

25.39

23.76

35~39歲9.82

10.98

5.68 7.56

14.50

6.77 20.2

1 22.4

9 25.5

0

40~44歲9.06 8.46

12.59

10.39 7.77

7.25 18.1

3 15.8

2 21.1

4

45歲及以上7.34

11.44

11.53

12.92 9.90

13.05

19.84

17.10

25.16

45~49歲8.25

14.56

10.53

14.73 8.42

4.68 14.3

8 15.3

6 28.2

9

50歲及以上6.62 8.95

12.46

11.48

11.08

20.70

24.18

18.49

22.30

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業者失業期間 - 按年齡分

Page 23: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %  失 業 期 間 ( 續 ) 平均

失業時

間 

Item 14 ~ 26 週 27 ~ 52 週 53 週以上年齡 年 93 95 97 93 95 97 93 95 97

15~24歲 21.69

21.34

14.11

20.64

13.77

22.78 6.43

10.00

4.92 20.9

9

15~19歲 20.77

17.00

8.66 28.64

17.96

11.47 8.36 -

3.69 23.5

1

20~24歲 21.88

21.98

15.03

19.01

13.15

24.70 6.04

11.48

5.12 20.4

7

25~44歲 19.42

24.98

21.16

18.86

17.50

18.74

20.36

13.20

17.91

30.98

25~29歲 17.30

26.72

23.43

20.54

17.15

19.46

18.80 8.94

11.72

29.68

30~34歲 20.08

23.92

16.80

17.20

17.73

18.54

18.09

14.18

24.29

29.52

35~39歲 17.75

21.26

18.47

20.11

15.14

18.87

24.55

15.63

24.72

33.86

40~44歲 23.97

26.29

24.53

16.58

20.95

16.95

21.87

20.70

17.54

32.32

45歲及以上 17.93

21.65

20.82

15.09

19.76

16.09

26.88

20.15

13.35

35.63

45~49歲 19.14

26.98

20.58

15.20

18.77

20.32

28.29

15.91

15.61

36.92

50歲及以上 16.96

17.38

21.04

15.00

20.56

12.22

25.76

23.54

11.28

34.61

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業者失業期間 - 按年齡分 ( 續 )

Page 24: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %  失 業 期 間

Item 1 ~ 2 週 3 ~4 週 5 ~ 13 週教育程度 年 93 95 97 93 95 97 93 95 97

國中及以下 10.38 8.71

12.95

11.56

12.09

8.95 23.1

0 20.0

7 26.3

8

國小及以下 10.37

12.36

10.85

11.74

12.10

9.95 22.6

5 17.9

1 29.3

0

國中 10.38 7.37

13.85

11.48

12.08

8.52 23.3

2 20.8

6 25.1

3

高中(職)8.86 9.95

12.33 9.41

12.54

10.11

19.82

25.37

25.21

高中5.56 6.95

7.90 8.48

11.33

10.93

19.77

32.45

27.09

高職9.89

10.80

13.85 9.70

12.89

9.83 19.8

3 23.3

5 24.5

7

大專及以上 7.43 8.36

6.49 15.0

9 14.4

0 11.8

8 26.8

6 23.8

5 28.0

4

專科7.53

11.42

3.94 16.9

9 16.0

4 14.7

8 26.8

2 26.4

4 31.2

0

大學及以上 7.30 5.87

7.90 12.7

4 13.0

7 10.2

8 26.9

2 21.7

6 26.3

1

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業者失業期間 - 按教育程度分

Page 25: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

單位 : %  失 業 期 間 ( 續 ) 平均

失業時

間 

Item 14 ~ 26 週 27 ~ 52 週 53 週以上教育程度 年 93 95 97 93 95 97 93 95 97

國中及以下 19.03

26.38

22.01

16.57

16.71

14.02

19.35

16.04

15.70

29.48

國小及以下 16.34

18.01

15.59

15.65

22.27

15.19

23.25

17.36

19.13

33.15

國中 20.33

29.46

24.76

17.00

14.66

13.52

17.49

15.56

14.23

27.73

高中(職) 22.44

24.66

19.83

19.74

15.26

17.70

19.74

12.22

14.82

31.53

高中 26.28

14.05

20.09

16.88

21.44

19.01

23.02

13.78

14.98

33.27

高職 21.23

27.69

19.74

20.63

13.49

17.25

18.71

11.78

14.76

30.99

大專及以上 16.48

20.23

17.67

18.68

19.21

23.55

15.46

13.95

12.37

26.84

專科 15.97

17.71

12.10

16.03

15.92

22.96

16.67

12.46

15.02

27.48

大學及以上 17.12

22.26

20.74

21.96

21.88

23.87

13.97

15.16

10.91

26.06

資料來源:主計處人力資源調查報告

失業者失業期間 - 按教育程度分 ( 續 )

Page 26: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

4. Inflation and Unemployment 4. Inflation and Unemployment Note: Because our focus is on the labor market, we shall Note: Because our focus is on the labor market, we shall

emphasize the price of labor-the wage rate-when discussing emphasize the price of labor-the wage rate-when discussing the issue of inflation.the issue of inflation.

(1)(1) The Inflation/Unemployment Trade-OffThe Inflation/Unemployment Trade-Off

The negative relationship between unemployment and wage The negative relationship between unemployment and wage inflation was dubbed the Phillips curve.inflation was dubbed the Phillips curve.

Rate of Wage Inflation

Unemployment

During the 1970s the relationship appears to have broken down.→An interpretation is that while a trade-off between the rates of inflation and unemployment exists at a point in time, the position of the trade-off curve is determined by a number of other factors that can change over time.

Page 27: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

Rate of Wage Inflation ( )

W

Unemployment Rate (U) U0

W0

W1

W2

It is also possible that the Phillips curve has become much flatter over recent years, so that the decrease in wage inflation accompanying a 1% point increase in the unemployment rate is now smaller than it once was.

1960s1970s

Early 1980s

Progressively higher rates of wage inflation have become associated with any given level of unemployment.

Page 28: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

(2) The Basic Model of the Inflation/Unemployment Trade-Off

Wage

E

Supply

Demand

W0

W1

W2

W3

W4

SSDXW

i.e., the percentage rate of change of wage ( ) is proportional to the excess demand for labor (X)

W

It is reasonable to assume that the speed at which The wage rate changes is related to the extend to which the labor market is in disequilibrium, as measured by the excess demand for labor.

Page 29: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

W

X

W=αX

W1

X1Excess SupplyX<0 Excess Demand

X>0

Excess Demand for Labor (X)

U

X1

U1 U*

Relationship Between the Excess Demand for Labor and the Unemployment Rate

Because the excess demand for labor is usually not observable, it is necessary to replace it with an observable variable, such as the unemployment rate.

U* is the unemployment rate that exists when the excess demand for labor is zero. i.e., natural or full-employment rate of unemployment.

Page 30: Unemployment. 1. Unemployment The concept of unemployment is somewhat ambiguous since in theory virtually anyone would be willing to be employed in return.

U

W1

U1 U*

W

Trade-off Between Wage Inflation and the Unemployment Rate