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Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts January 2009
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Page 1: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary

Economic Context

Paul E. HarringtonCenter for Labor Market Studies

Northeastern UniversityBoston, Massachusetts

January 2009

Page 2: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

A Thumbnail Sketch of the Economic Crisis

An Economy out of BalanceTotal GDP 2000 to 2007 $92.5 TrillionTotal Purchases of G&S $97.0 Trillion

Difference -$4.5 Trillion

Page 3: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

How did we purchase more than we produced?

Purchased Goods from OverseasU.S. Balance of Trade Deficit increased by about $4.5 Trillion

Page 4: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

How did we pay for excess consumption?

Household debt doubled by $6.8 trillionBetween 2000 and 2005 average home price doubledAlmost half of this debt secured by mortgagesSavings rate fell to zero

Page 5: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

A Housing Bubble “Market Values Fluctuate: Debt is Forever”

Unlike equity bubbles housing bubbles quickly convert to spendingBanks “make your home work for you”Out of $6.8 Trillion increase in debt, $4.2 Trillion NOT spent on housingConsumer electronics/autos/trucks

Page 6: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Who lent us the money?

China, oil producers including Russia and Saudi ArabiaThese nations purchased U.S. Treasuries-safe and secureHeld assets in U.S. banks—swelling domestic banking reserves

Page 7: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

How did this fuel borrowing and spending?

Large reserves fueled rapid growth in money supply

Fractional reserve lending system meant that growth in reserves resulted in large growth in money supply via the money multiplier –result was low interest rates

Page 8: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Federal Reserve Response

Fed did nothingGreenspan: World has entered into a “new economic paradigm (rejection of liquidity preference theory and acceptance of the efficient market theory)Prices set in asset and housing markets are ‘correct’

Page 9: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Fed continued

Absence of inflation over 2000 to 2005 led to fed to inactionFed supported rising asset pricesPermitted rapid expansion in money supply and declining real interest ratesFueled further increases in housing and stock markets (asset inflation)

Page 10: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

How did housing bubble burst?

Mortgage loans made to people with no hope of making payments

1. Sub-prime2. Home equity loans based on

assumption of perpetually rising housing prices

3. Teaser rates4. Home values collapse -down 25

Percent since mid 2006

Page 11: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

What’s different about this downturn?

Rise in asset values are based on financiers making increasingly risky loansBanks developed new ways of sell off these risky loans into world markets

CDOs Credit Default Swaps

Estimated $30 Trillion losses in wealth across the world

Page 12: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Problem is now well beyond mortgage backed securities and housing market

Commercial lendingCredit card lendingAuto lendingAll suffering rising default problemsSo banking system sharply reduces lending—money multiplier collapses—liquidity trap

Page 13: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Financial meltdown has led to deflation

Deflation is a downward pressure on prices that sharply reduces the level of output, employment and incomeDeflation is a self-reinforcing downward spiral based on future expectations about prices that reflect overall economic conditions

Page 14: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

What is the Current Economic Situation?

Global Demand for Goods and Services Falling Sharply

4th qtr GDP in Industrialized Nations fell 6 to 7 Percent annual average pace.

1st qtr 2009 GDP is expected to fall at same pace.

Page 15: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Asset Values Continue to Decline Sharp decline in housing values—25 percent

decline in mean price level Additional 20 percent decline expected this

year Equity assets declined by 50 percent since

peak Estimated that about 1/3rd of value of world

wealth wiped out last year U.S. wealth value fell by about $11 trillion in

2008

Page 16: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Deflationary Cycle Decline in value of assets leads to Increased desire and intensity of savings—

depress demand growth Increased savings rate (now over 5%) Decreased consumption (retail sales

contracted by 28 % apr in 4th qtr 2008) Corporate profits fall sharply—huge banking

sector losses-rise of zombie banks Continuing reductions in consumption make

expanding profits next to impossible

Page 17: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

…GDP Falls Declines in C+I results in GDP declines Profit declines result in cut-backs in production Lay-offs rise sharply, job vacancies fall

sharplhours Accelerating rate of job losses Rising unemployment Sharp reductions in hours of work per week,

increase in part-time work for economic reasons

Page 18: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

…Decline Accelerates Employment losses lead to real income

declines Households make effort to raise savings rate Expectations of future prices of asset values

fall—decrease purchases of assets-further reduces their price

Values of housing declines Value of equities declines These paper declines feed back into a new

round of cutbacks in the real economy- an adverse feedback loop or deflationary spiral

Page 19: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Phases of Downturn August 2007- March 2008:market cap of banks

insurance companies begins to erode Monthly losses in value average $150 billion (Bear Stearns 3/2008)

March to Sept 2008: Losses mounted to $260 billion per month (Lehman bankruptcy 9/2008)

September 2008 to January 2009: Losses in value of banks and insurance companies explodes– average decline of $ 660 billion permonth

Asset write downs in global finance about $5 trillion

Page 20: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Job Market Developments Recession begins in December 2007 Payroll

employment declines average 137,000 per month over the period

August to November job losses accelerate to 436,000 per month

December to February job losses in U.S, average 662,000

Expectations of this months reports suggest similarly large

Page 21: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

CES Total Nonfarm Employment by Region, Trough to Peak (Q2 2003 to Q4 2007), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands

Region Q2 2003 Q4 2007Absolute Change

Relative Change

Kansas 1,311.3 1,388.2 76.9 5.9%Michigan 4,415.9 4,247.6 -168.3 -3.8%Ohio 5,399.5 5,424.1 24.6 0.5%Illinois 5,810.1 5,990.6 180.5 3.1%Indiana 2,889.3 2,988.7 99.4 3.4%Wisconsin 2,775.6 2,889.0 113.4 4.1%Minnesota 2,660.9 2,774.2 113.3 4.3%Iowa 1,436.0 1,525.5 89.6 6.2%Nebraska 911.1 963.4 52.2 5.7%Missouri 2,678.6 2,799.8 121.2 4.5%Heartland 30,288.3 30,991.2 702.9 2.3%US 129,842.3 138,000.3 8,158.0 6.3%

Page 22: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

CES Total Nonfarm Employment by Region, Peak to Present (Q4 2007 to Q4 2008), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands

Region Q4 2007 Q4 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Kansas 1,388.2 1,390.3 2.0 0.1%Michigan 4,247.6 4,083.8 -163.8 -3.9%Ohio 5,424.1 5,305.5 -118.7 -2.2%Illinois 5,990.6 5,884.1 -106.5 -1.8%Indiana 2,988.7 2,928.2 -60.5 -2.0%Wisconsin 2,889.0 2,849.5 -39.4 -1.4%Minnesota 2,774.2 2,736.8 -37.4 -1.3%Iowa 1,525.5 1,516.6 -8.9 -0.6%Nebraska 963.4 964.4 1.1 0.1%Missouri 2,799.8 2,780.9 -18.9 -0.7%Heartland 30,991.2 30,440.1 -551.1 -1.8%US 138,000.3 135,727.0 -2,273.3 -1.6%

Page 23: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

CES Total Nonfarm Employment by Region, Q1 2001 to Q4 2008, Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands

Region Q1 2001 Q4 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Kansas 1,352.4 1,390.3 37.9 2.8%Michigan 4,610.6 4,083.8 -526.8 -11.4%Ohio 5,599.6 5,305.5 -294.1 -5.3%Illinois 6,047.7 5,884.1 -163.6 -2.7%Indiana 2,960.4 2,928.2 -32.2 -1.1%Wisconsin 2,836.4 2,849.5 13.1 0.5%Minnesota 2,708.3 2,736.8 28.5 1.1%Iowa 1,475.0 1,516.6 41.6 2.8%Nebraska 915.6 964.4 48.8 5.3%Missouri 2,744.1 2,780.9 36.9 1.3%Heartland 31,250.1 30,440.1 -810.0 -2.6%US 132,499.7 135,727.0 3,227.3 2.4%

Page 24: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

CES Heartland Region Supersector Employment Peak to Trough (Q1 2001 to Q2 2003), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands

Supersector Q1 2001 Q2 2003Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 31,250.1 30,288.3 -961.8 -3.1%

Mining and Logging 52.7 59.3 6.6 12.6%

Construction 1,427.2 1,393.9 -33.3 -2.3%

Manufacturing 5,214.7 4,522.3 -692.3 -13.3%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,283.2 5,969.0 -314.2 -5.0%

Information 696.5 615.5 -81.0 -11.6%

Financial Activities 1,758.8 1,796.6 37.8 2.2%

Professional and Business Services 3,567.5 3,380.5 -187.0 -5.2%

Education and Health Services 3,687.8 3,891.3 203.5 5.5%

Leisure and Hospitality 2,665.4 2,697.5 32.2 1.2%

Other Services 1,268.9 1,273.2 4.3 0.3%

Government 4,616.4 4,689.1 72.7 1.6%

Page 25: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

CES Heartland Region Supersector Employment Trough to Peak (Q2 2003 to Q4 2007), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands

Supersector Q2 2003 Q4 2007Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 30,288.3 30,991.2 702.9 2.3%Mining and Logging 59.3 63.1 3.8 6.4%Construction 1,393.9 1,385.4 -8.5 -0.6%Manufacturing 4,522.3 4,243.8 -278.5 -6.2%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,969.0 6,037.5 68.5 1.1%Information 615.5 572.9 -42.5 -6.9%Financial Activities 1,796.6 1,797.9 1.3 0.1%Professional and Business Services 3,380.5 3,745.3 364.8 10.8%Education and Health Services 3,891.3 4,324.3 433.0 11.1%Leisure and Hospitality 2,697.5 2,850.6 153.1 5.7%Other Services 1,273.2 1,292.7 19.5 1.5%Government 4,689.1 4,677.7 -11.5 -0.2%

Page 26: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

CES Heartland Region Supersector Employment Peak to Present (Q4 2007 to Q4 2008), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands

Supersector Q4 2007 Q4 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 30,991.2 30,440.1 -551.1 -1.8%

Mining and Logging 63.1 63.9 0.8 1.3%

Construction 1,385.4 1,272.1 -113.4 -8.2%

Manufacturing 4,243.8 4,029.6 -214.2 -5.0%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,037.5 5,893.5 -143.9 -2.4%

Information 572.9 559.9 -13.1 -2.3%

Financial Activities 1,797.9 1,759.5 -38.5 -2.1%

Professional and Business Services 3,745.3 3,613.6 -131.7 -3.5%

Education and Health Services 4,324.3 4,435.8 111.5 2.6%

Leisure and Hospitality 2,850.6 2,813.6 -37.0 -1.3%

Other Services 1,292.7 1,289.6 -3.1 -0.2%

Government 4,677.7 4,709.1 31.4 0.7%

Page 27: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

CES Heartland Region Supersector Employment Q1 2001 to Q4 2008, Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands

Supersector Q1 2001 Q4 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 31,250.1 30,440.1 -810.0 -2.6%Mining and Logging 52.7 63.9 11.2 21.3%Construction 1,427.2 1,272.1 -155.2 -10.9%Manufacturing 5,214.7 4,029.6 -1,185.1 -22.7%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,283.2 5,893.5 -389.6 -6.2%Information 696.5 559.9 -136.6 -19.6%Financial Activities 1,758.8 1,759.5 0.7 0.0%Professional and Business Services 3,567.5 3,613.6 46.1 1.3%Education and Health Services 3,687.8 4,435.8 748.0 20.3%Leisure and Hospitality 2,665.4 2,813.6 148.2 5.6%Other Services 1,268.9 1,289.6 20.7 1.6%Government 4,616.4 4,709.1 92.7 2.0%

Page 28: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Nonfarm Industry Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 523,727 515,495 -8,232 -1.6%Mining 68,863 42,615 -26,248 -38.1%Construction 2,088,231 1,977,185 -111,046 -5.3%Manufacturing 5,175,250 5,035,264 -139,986 -2.7%Wholesale and retail trade 4,812,799 4,715,462 -97,337 -2.0%Transportation and utilities 1,614,062 1,777,272 163,210 10.1%Information 817,900 685,728 -132,172 -16.2%Financial activities 2,289,545 2,166,800 -122,745 -5.4%Professional and business services 2,882,765 3,061,203 178,438 6.2%Educational and health services 6,965,474 7,195,204 229,730 3.3%Leisure and hospitality 2,463,918 2,491,201 27,283 1.1%Other services 1,351,807 1,381,603 29,796 2.2%Public administration 1,105,787 1,120,727 14,940 1.4%Total 32,160,128 32,165,759 5,631 0.0%

Page 29: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

LAUS Changes in Employment Dec 2007 to Jan 2009, Seasonally Adjusted

Region Dec-07 Jan-09 Absolute Change Relative Change

Kansas 1,427,687 1,420,834 -6,853 -0.5%

Michigan 4,624,946 4,299,405 -325,541 -7.0%

Ohio 5,627,276 5,434,237 -193,039 -3.4%

Illinois 6,356,276 6,082,800 -273,476 -4.3%

Indiana 3,071,042 2,950,371 -120,671 -3.9%

Wisconsin 2,947,877 2,884,132 -63,745 -2.2%

Minnesota 2,772,672 2,719,124 -53,548 -1.9%

Iowa 1,607,583 1,592,056 -15,527 -1.0%

Nebraska 960,377 947,882 -12,495 -1.3%

Missouri 2,856,858 2,767,195 -89,663 -3.1%

Heartland 32,252,594 31,098,036 -1,154,558 -3.6%

US 146,294,000 142,099,000 -4,195,000 -2.9%

Page 30: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

LAUS Changes in Unemployment Dec 2007 to Jan 2009, Seasonally Adjusted

Region Dec-07 Jan-09 Absolute Change Relative Change

Kansas 61,694 87,358 25,664 41.6%

Michigan 363,738 564,982 201,244 55.3%

Ohio 344,969 524,049 179,080 51.9%

Illinois 374,597 518,636 144,039 38.5%

Indiana 145,878 300,692 154,814 106.1%

Wisconsin 137,541 215,403 77,862 56.6%

Minnesota 139,035 222,189 83,154 59.8%

Iowa 64,361 80,609 16,248 25.2%

Nebraska 26,338 42,783 16,445 62.4%

Missouri 160,466 241,314 80,848 50.4%

Heartland 1,818,617 2,798,015 979,398 53.9%

US 7,541,000 11,616,000 4,075,000 54.0%

Page 31: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

LAUS Changes in the Unemployment Rate Dec 2007 to Jan 2009, Seasonally Adjusted

Region Dec-07 Jan-09 Absolute Change Relative Change

Kansas 4.1 5.8 1.7 41.5%

Michigan 7.3 11.6 4.3 58.9%

Ohio 5.8 8.8 3 51.7%

Illinois 5.6 7.9 2.3 41.1%

Indiana 4.5 9.2 4.7 104.4%

Wisconsin 4.5 6.9 2.4 53.3%

Minnesota 4.8 7.6 2.8 58.3%

Iowa 3.8 4.8 1 26.3%

Nebraska 2.7 4.3 1.6 59.3%

Missouri 5.3 8 2.7 50.9%

Heartland 5.3 8.3 2.9 54.6%

US 4.9 7.6 2.7 55.1%

Page 32: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Nonfarm Industry Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-

Jan08 AvgDec08-

Jan09 AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 515,495 524,757 9,262 1.8%Mining 42,615 60,195 17,580 41.3%Construction 1,977,185 1,886,577 -90,608 -4.6%Manufacturing 5,035,264 4,353,801 -681,463 -13.5%Wholesale and retail trade 4,715,462 4,473,037 -242,425 -5.1%Transportation and utilities 1,777,272 1,650,020 -127,252 -7.2%Information 685,728 622,220 -63,508 -9.3%Financial activities 2,166,800 2,091,225 -75,575 -3.5%Professional and business services 3,061,203 2,933,443 -127,760 -4.2%Educational and health services 7,195,204 7,479,935 284,731 4.0%Leisure and hospitality 2,491,201 2,499,364 8,163 0.3%Other services 1,381,603 1,474,682 93,079 6.7%Public administration 1,120,727 1,205,771 85,044 7.6%Total 32,165,759 31,255,027 -910,732 -2.8%

Page 33: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Occupation Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Management, business, and financial occupations 4,738,837 4,660,839 -77,998 -1.6%

Professional and related occupations 6,368,251 6,589,191 220,940 3.5%

Service occupations 5,102,298 5,063,490 -38,808 -0.8%

Sales and related occupations 3,757,976 3,516,858 -241,118 -6.4%

Office and administrative support occupations 4,401,331 4,433,160 31,829 0.7%

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 150,514 148,646 -1,868 -1.2%

Construction and extraction occupations 1,629,757 1,573,414 -56,343 -3.5%

Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1,189,464 1,155,079 -34,385 -2.9%

Production occupations 2,707,435 2,844,334 136,899 5.1%

Transportation and material moving occupations 2,114,264 2,180,747 66,483 3.1%

Total 32,160,127 32,165,758 5,631 0.0%

Page 34: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Nonfarm Industry Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 523,727 524,757 1,030 0.2%Mining 68,863 60,195 -8,668 -12.6%Construction 2,088,231 1,886,577 -201,654 -9.7%Manufacturing 5,175,250 4,353,801 -821,449 -15.9%Wholesale and retail trade 4,812,799 4,473,037 -339,762 -7.1%Transportation and utilities 1,614,062 1,650,020 35,958 2.2%Information 817,900 622,220 -195,680 -23.9%Financial activities 2,289,545 2,091,225 -198,320 -8.7%Professional and business services 2,882,765 2,933,443 50,678 1.8%Educational and health services 6,965,474 7,479,935 514,461 7.4%Leisure and hospitality 2,463,918 2,499,364 35,446 1.4%Other services 1,351,807 1,474,682 122,875 9.1%Public administration 1,105,787 1,205,771 99,984 9.0%Total 32,160,128 31,255,027 -905,101 -2.8%

Page 35: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Occupation Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-

Jan08 AvgDec08-

Jan09 AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Management, business, and financial occupations 4,660,839 4,588,399 -72,440 -1.6%

Professional and related occupations 6,589,191 6,717,764 128,573 2.0%

Service occupations 5,063,490 5,255,124 191,634 3.8%

Sales and related occupations 3,516,858 3,305,088 -211,770 -6.0%

Office and administrative support occupations 4,433,160 4,153,106 -280,054 -6.3%

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 148,646 172,800 24,154 16.2%

Construction and extraction occupations 1,573,414 1,402,765 -170,649 -10.8%

Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1,155,079 1,122,210 -32,869 -2.8%

Production occupations 2,844,334 2,405,911 -438,423 -15.4%

Transportation and material moving occupations 2,180,747 2,131,860 -48,887 -2.2%

Total 32,165,758 31,255,027 -910,731 -2.8%

Page 36: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Occupation Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-

Jan07 AvgDec08-

Jan09 AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Management, business, and financial occupations 4,738,837 4,588,399 -150,438 -3.2%

Professional and related occupations 6,368,251 6,717,764 349,513 5.5%

Service occupations 5,102,298 5,255,124 152,826 3.0%

Sales and related occupations 3,757,976 3,305,088 -452,888 -12.1%

Office and administrative support occupations 4,401,331 4,153,106 -248,225 -5.6%

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 150,514 172,800 22,286 14.8%

Construction and extraction occupations 1,629,757 1,402,765 -226,992 -13.9%

Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1,189,464 1,122,210 -67,254 -5.7%

Production occupations 2,707,435 2,405,911 -301,524 -11.1%

Transportation and material moving occupations 2,114,264 2,131,860 17,596 0.8%

Total 32,160,127 31,255,027 -905,100 -2.8%

Page 37: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Male 17,002,983 16,829,987 -172,996 -1.0%

Female 15,157,146 15,335,771 178,625 1.2%

Total 32,160,129 32,165,758 5,629 0.0%

Page 38: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Male 16,829,987 16,067,464 -762,523 -4.5%

Female 15,335,771 15,187,563 -148,208 -1.0%

Total 32,165,758 31,255,027 -910,731 -2.8%

Page 39: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Male 17,002,983 16,067,464 -935,519 -5.5%

Female 15,157,146 15,187,563 30,417 0.2%

Total 32,160,129 31,255,027 -905,102 -2.8%

Page 40: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Male 1,103,645 1,123,247 19,602 1.8%

Female 716,779 761,707 44,928 6.3%

Total 1,820,424 1,884,954 64,530 3.5%

Page 41: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Male 1,123,247 1,723,496 600,249 53.4%

Female 761,707 1,016,645 254,938 33.5%

Total 1,884,954 2,740,141 855,187 45.4%

Page 42: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Male 1,103,645 1,723,496 619,851 56.2%

Female 716,779 1,016,645 299,866 41.8%

Total 1,820,424 2,740,141 919,717 50.5%

Page 43: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Male 18,106,628 17,953,234 -153,394 -0.8%

Female 15,873,925 16,097,478 223,553 1.4%

Total 33,980,553 34,050,712 70,159 0.2%

Page 44: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Male 17,953,234 17,790,960 -162,274 -0.9%

Female 16,097,478 16,204,208 106,730 0.7%

Total 34,050,712 33,995,168 -55,544 -0.2%

Page 45: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

Male 18,106,628 17,790,960 -315,668 -1.7%

Female 15,873,925 16,204,208 330,283 2.1%

Total 33,980,553 33,995,168 14,615 0.0%

Page 46: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 1,466,403 1,370,765 -95,638 -6.5%

20-24 Years 3,120,768 2,947,978 -172,790 -5.5%

25-34 Years 6,878,391 6,641,831 -236,560 -3.4%

35-54 Years 15,176,846 15,456,453 279,607 1.8%

55+ Years 5,517,720 5,748,731 231,011 4.2%

Total 32,160,128 32,165,758 5,630 0.0%

Page 47: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 1,370,765 1,304,350 -66,415 -4.8%

20-24 Years 2,947,978 2,894,654 -53,324 -1.8%

25-34 Years 6,641,831 6,318,763 -323,068 -4.9%

35-54 Years 15,456,453 14,677,605 -778,848 -5.0%

55+ Years 5,748,731 6,059,656 310,925 5.4%

Total 32,165,758 31,255,028 -910,730 -2.8%

Page 48: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 1,466,403 1,304,350 -162,053 -11.1%

20-24 Years 3,120,768 2,894,654 -226,114 -7.2%

25-34 Years 6,878,391 6,318,763 -559,628 -8.1%

35-54 Years 15,176,846 14,677,605 -499,241 -3.3%

55+ Years 5,517,720 6,059,656 541,936 9.8%

Total 32,160,128 31,255,028 -905,100 -2.8%

Page 49: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 245,360 311,749 66,389 27.1%

20-24 Years 268,105 283,014 14,909 5.6%

25-34 Years 453,233 407,524 -45,709 -10.1%

35-54 Years 631,474 683,847 52,373 8.3%

55+ Years 222,251 198,819 -23,432 -10.5%

Total 1,820,423 1,884,953 64,530 3.5%

Page 50: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 311,749 291,134 -20,615 -6.6%

20-24 Years 283,014 444,342 161,328 57.0%

25-34 Years 407,524 552,396 144,872 35.5%

35-54 Years 683,847 1,127,795 443,948 64.9%

55+ Years 198,819 324,474 125,655 63.2%

Total 1,884,953 2,740,141 855,188 45.4%

Page 51: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 245,360 291,134 45,774 18.7%

20-24 Years 268,105 444,342 176,237 65.7%

25-34 Years 453,233 552,396 99,163 21.9%

35-54 Years 631,474 1,127,795 496,321 78.6%

55+ Years 222,251 324,474 102,223 46.0%

Total 1,820,423 2,740,141 919,718 50.5%

Page 52: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 1,711,763 1,682,514 -29,249 -1.7%

20-24 Years 3,388,873 3,230,992 -157,881 -4.7%

25-34 Years 7,331,624 7,049,355 -282,269 -3.9%

35-54 Years 15,808,320 16,140,300 331,980 2.1%

55+ Years 5,739,971 5,947,550 207,579 3.6%

Total 33,980,551 34,050,711 70,160 0.2%

Page 53: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 1,682,514 1,595,484 -87,030 -5.2%

20-24 Years 3,230,992 3,338,996 108,004 3.3%

25-34 Years 7,049,355 6,871,159 -178,196 -2.5%

35-54 Years 16,140,300 15,805,400 -334,900 -2.1%

55+ Years 5,947,550 6,384,130 436,580 7.3%

Total 34,050,711 33,995,169 -55,542 -0.2%

Page 54: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 1,711,763 1,595,484 -116,279 -6.8%

20-24 Years 3,388,873 3,338,996 -49,877 -1.5%

25-34 Years 7,331,624 6,871,159 -460,465 -6.3%

35-54 Years 15,808,320 15,805,400 -2,920 0.0%

55+ Years 5,739,971 6,384,130 644,159 11.2%

Total 33,980,551 33,995,169 14,618 0.0%

Page 55: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Male Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 701,528 645,059 -56,469 -8.0%

20-24 Years 1,579,068 1,517,035 -62,033 -3.9%

25-34 Years 3,722,253 3,512,705 -209,548 -5.6%

35-54 Years 8,067,901 8,140,336 72,435 0.9%

55+ Years 2,932,232 3,014,851 82,619 2.8%

Total 17,002,982 16,829,986 -172,996 -1.0%

Page 56: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Male Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 645,059 594,262 -50,797 -7.9%

20-24 Years 1,517,035 1,488,944 -28,091 -1.9%

25-34 Years 3,512,705 3,276,720 -235,985 -6.7%

35-54 Years 8,140,336 7,604,875 -535,461 -6.6%

55+ Years 3,014,851 3,102,664 87,813 2.9%

Total 16,829,986 16,067,465 -762,521 -4.5%

Page 57: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Male Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 701,528 594,262 -107,266 -15.3%

20-24 Years 1,579,068 1,488,944 -90,124 -5.7%

25-34 Years 3,722,253 3,276,720 -445,533 -12.0%

35-54 Years 8,067,901 7,604,875 -463,026 -5.7%

55+ Years 2,932,232 3,102,664 170,432 5.8%

Total 17,002,982 16,067,465 -935,517 -5.5%

Page 58: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Male Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 129,556 179,323 49,767 38.4%

20-24 Years 174,109 162,335 -11,774 -6.8%

25-34 Years 278,823 260,854 -17,969 -6.4%

35-54 Years 392,226 406,202 13,976 3.6%

55+ Years 128,930 114,534 -14,396 -11.2%

Total 1,103,644 1,123,248 19,604 1.8%

Page 59: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Male Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 179,323 177,273 -2,050 -1.1%

20-24 Years 162,335 292,689 130,354 80.3%

25-34 Years 260,854 346,819 85,965 33.0%

35-54 Years 406,202 718,358 312,156 76.8%

55+ Years 114,534 188,357 73,823 64.5%

Total 1,123,248 1,723,496 600,248 53.4%

Page 60: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Male Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 129,556 177,273 47,717 36.8%

20-24 Years 174,109 292,689 118,580 68.1%

25-34 Years 278,823 346,819 67,996 24.4%

35-54 Years 392,226 718,358 326,132 83.1%

55+ Years 128,930 188,357 59,427 46.1%

Total 1,103,644 1,723,496 619,852 56.2%

Page 61: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Male Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 831,084 824,382 -6,702 -0.8%

20-24 Years 1,753,177 1,679,370 -73,807 -4.2%

25-34 Years 4,001,076 3,773,559 -227,517 -5.7%

35-54 Years 8,460,127 8,546,538 86,411 1.0%

55+ Years 3,061,162 3,129,385 68,223 2.2%

Total 18,106,626 17,953,234 -153,392 -0.8%

Page 62: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Male Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 824,382 771,535 -52,847 -6.4%

20-24 Years 1,679,370 1,781,633 102,263 6.1%

25-34 Years 3,773,559 3,623,539 -150,020 -4.0%

35-54 Years 8,546,538 8,323,233 -223,305 -2.6%

55+ Years 3,129,385 3,291,021 161,636 5.2%

Total 17,953,234 17,790,961 -162,273 -0.9%

Page 63: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Male Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 831,084 771,535 -59,549 -7.2%

20-24 Years 1,753,177 1,781,633 28,456 1.6%

25-34 Years 4,001,076 3,623,539 -377,537 -9.4%

35-54 Years 8,460,127 8,323,233 -136,894 -1.6%

55+ Years 3,061,162 3,291,021 229,859 7.5%

Total 18,106,626 17,790,961 -315,665 -1.7%

Page 64: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Female Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 764,875 725,706 -39,169 -5.1%

20-24 Years 1,541,700 1,430,943 -110,757 -7.2%

25-34 Years 3,156,138 3,129,125 -27,013 -0.9%

35-54 Years 7,108,945 7,316,117 207,172 2.9%

55+ Years 2,585,488 2,733,879 148,391 5.7%

Total 15,157,146 15,335,770 178,624 1.2%

Page 65: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Female Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 725,706 710,088 -15,618 -2.2%

20-24 Years 1,430,943 1,405,710 -25,233 -1.8%

25-34 Years 3,129,125 3,042,043 -87,082 -2.8%

35-54 Years 7,316,117 7,072,730 -243,387 -3.3%

55+ Years 2,733,879 2,956,992 223,113 8.2%

Total 15,335,770 15,187,563 -148,207 -1.0%

Page 66: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Female Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 764,875 710,088 -54,787 -7.2%

20-24 Years 1,541,700 1,405,710 -135,990 -8.8%

25-34 Years 3,156,138 3,042,043 -114,095 -3.6%

35-54 Years 7,108,945 7,072,730 -36,215 -0.5%

55+ Years 2,585,488 2,956,992 371,504 14.4%

Total 15,157,146 15,187,563 30,417 0.2%

Page 67: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Female Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 115,804 132,426 16,622 14.4%

20-24 Years 93,996 120,680 26,684 28.4%

25-34 Years 174,410 146,671 -27,739 -15.9%

35-54 Years 239,248 277,645 38,397 16.0%

55+ Years 93,321 84,285 -9,036 -9.7%

Total 716,779 761,707 44,928 6.3%

Page 68: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Female Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 132,426 113,861 -18,565 -14.0%

20-24 Years 120,680 151,653 30,973 25.7%

25-34 Years 146,671 205,576 58,905 40.2%

35-54 Years 277,645 409,437 131,792 47.5%

55+ Years 84,285 136,117 51,832 61.5%

Total 761,707 1,016,644 254,937 33.5%

Page 69: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Female Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 115,804 113,861 -1,943 -1.7%

20-24 Years 93,996 151,653 57,657 61.3%

25-34 Years 174,410 205,576 31,166 17.9%

35-54 Years 239,248 409,437 170,189 71.1%

55+ Years 93,321 136,117 42,796 45.9%

Total 716,779 1,016,644 299,865 41.8%

Page 70: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Female Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 880,679 858,132 -22,547 -2.6%

20-24 Years 1,635,696 1,551,623 -84,073 -5.1%

25-34 Years 3,330,548 3,275,796 -54,752 -1.6%

35-54 Years 7,348,193 7,593,762 245,569 3.3%

55+ Years 2,678,809 2,818,164 139,355 5.2%

Total 15,873,925 16,097,477 223,552 1.4%

Page 71: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Female Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 858,132 823,949 -34,183 -4.0%

20-24 Years 1,551,623 1,557,363 5,740 0.4%

25-34 Years 3,275,796 3,247,619 -28,177 -0.9%

35-54 Years 7,593,762 7,482,167 -111,595 -1.5%

55+ Years 2,818,164 3,093,109 274,945 9.8%

Total 16,097,477 16,204,207 106,730 0.7%

Page 72: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Female Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 Years 880,679 823,949 -56,730 -6.4%

20-24 Years 1,635,696 1,557,363 -78,333 -4.8%

25-34 Years 3,330,548 3,247,619 -82,929 -2.5%

35-54 Years 7,348,193 7,482,167 133,974 1.8%

55+ Years 2,678,809 3,093,109 414,300 15.5%

Total 15,873,925 16,204,207 330,282 2.1%

Page 73: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

White 26,587,164 26,682,954 95,790 0.4%

Black 2,667,487 2,585,120 -82,367 -3.1%

Asian or Pacific Islander 844,172 773,347 -70,825 -8.4%

Hispanic 1,730,462 1,753,869 23,407 1.4%

Other 330,845 370,468 39,623 12.0%

Total 32,160,130 32,165,758 5,628 0.0%

Page 74: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

White 26,682,954 25,836,549 -846,405 -3.2%

Black 2,585,120 2,520,703 -64,417 -2.5%

Asian or Pacific Islander 773,347 814,241 40,894 5.3%

Hispanic 1,753,869 1,704,819 -49,050 -2.8%

Other 370,468 378,715 8,247 2.2%

Total 32,165,758 31,255,027 -910,731 -2.8%

Page 75: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

White 26,587,164 25,836,549 -750,615 -2.8%

Black 2,667,487 2,520,703 -146,784 -5.5%

Asian or Pacific Islander 844,172 814,241 -29,931 -3.5%

Hispanic 1,730,462 1,704,819 -25,643 -1.5%

Other 330,845 378,715 47,870 14.5%

Total 32,160,130 31,255,027 -905,103 -2.8%

Page 76: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

White 1,291,748 1,344,102 52,354 4.1%

Black 337,174 354,522 17,348 5.1%

Asian or Pacific Islander 36,614 25,669 -10,945 -29.9%

Hispanic 113,285 130,734 17,449 15.4%

Other 41,603 29,926 -11,677 -28.1%

Total 1,820,424 1,884,953 64,529 3.5%

Page 77: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

White 1,344,102 2,040,760 696,658 51.8%

Black 354,522 401,349 46,827 13.2%

Asian or Pacific Islander 25,669 48,680 23,011 89.6%

Hispanic 130,734 202,868 72,134 55.2%

Other 29,926 46,483 16,557 55.3%

Total 1,884,953 2,740,140 855,187 45.4%

Page 78: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

White 1,291,748 2,040,760 749,012 58.0%

Black 337,174 401,349 64,175 19.0%

Asian or Pacific Islander 36,614 48,680 12,066 33.0%

Hispanic 113,285 202,868 89,583 79.1%

Other 41,603 46,483 4,880 11.7%

Total 1,820,424 2,740,140 919,716 50.5%

Page 79: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

White 27,878,912 28,027,056 148,144 0.5%

Black 3,004,661 2,939,642 -65,019 -2.2%

Asian or Pacific Islander 880,786 799,016 -81,770 -9.3%

Hispanic 1,843,747 1,884,603 40,856 2.2%

Other 372,448 400,394 27,946 7.5%

Total 33,980,554 34,050,711 70,157 0.2%

Page 80: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

White 28,027,056 27,877,309 -149,747 -0.5%

Black 2,939,642 2,922,052 -17,590 -0.6%

Asian or Pacific Islander 799,016 862,921 63,905 8.0%

Hispanic 1,884,603 1,907,687 23,084 1.2%

Other 400,394 425,198 24,804 6.2%

Total 34,050,711 33,995,167 -55,544 -0.2%

Page 81: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

White 27,878,912 27,877,309 -1,603 0.0%

Black 3,004,661 2,922,052 -82,609 -2.7%

Asian or Pacific Islander 880,786 862,921 -17,865 -2.0%

Hispanic 1,843,747 1,907,687 63,940 3.5%

Other 372,448 425,198 52,750 14.2%

Total 33,980,554 33,995,167 14,613 0.0%

Page 82: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

High School Dropout 1,751,320 1,730,318 -21,002 -1.2%

High School Graduate 8,740,238 8,658,072 -82,166 -0.9%

Some College 8,055,672 8,280,369 224,697 2.8%

Bachelor's or Higher 9,025,726 9,178,257 152,531 1.7%

Total 27,572,956 27,847,016 274,060 1.0%

Page 83: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

High School Dropout 1,730,318 1,594,452 -135,866 -7.9%

High School Graduate 8,658,072 8,424,703 -233,369 -2.7%

Some College 8,280,369 8,027,337 -253,032 -3.1%

Bachelor's or Higher 9,178,257 9,009,531 -168,726 -1.8%

Total 27,847,016 27,056,023 -790,993 -2.8%

Page 84: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Employment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

High School Dropout 1,751,320 1,594,452 -156,868 -9.0%

High School Graduate 8,740,238 8,424,703 -315,535 -3.6%

Some College 8,055,672 8,027,337 -28,335 -0.4%

Bachelor's or Higher 9,025,726 9,009,531 -16,195 -0.2%

Total 27,572,956 27,056,023 -516,933 -1.9%

Page 85: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

High School Dropout 175,670 222,630 46,960 26.7%

High School Graduate 559,235 521,973 -37,262 -6.7%

Some College 370,904 370,759 -145 0.0%

Bachelor's or Higher 201,150 174,827 -26,323 -13.1%

Total 1,306,959 1,290,189 -16,770 -1.3%

Page 86: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

High School Dropout 222,630 260,024 37,394 16.8%

High School Graduate 521,973 848,395 326,422 62.5%

Some College 370,759 549,081 178,322 48.1%

Bachelor's or Higher 174,827 347,165 172,338 98.6%

Total 1,290,189 2,004,665 714,476 55.4%

Page 87: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Unemployment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

High School Dropout 175,670 260,024 84,354 48.0%

High School Graduate 559,235 848,395 289,160 51.7%

Some College 370,904 549,081 178,177 48.0%

Bachelor's or Higher 201,150 347,165 146,015 72.6%

Total 1,306,959 2,004,665 697,706 53.4%

Page 88: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec07-Jan08

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

High School Dropout 1,926,990 1,952,948 25,958 1.3%

High School Graduate 9,299,473 9,180,045 -119,428 -1.3%

Some College 8,426,576 8,651,128 224,552 2.7%

Bachelor's or Higher 9,226,876 9,353,084 126,208 1.4%

Total 28,879,915 29,137,205 257,290 0.9%

Page 89: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec07-Jan08

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

High School Dropout 1,952,948 1,854,476 -98,472 -5.0%

High School Graduate 9,180,045 9,273,098 93,053 1.0%

Some College 8,651,128 8,576,418 -74,710 -0.9%

Bachelor's or Higher 9,353,084 9,356,696 3,612 0.0%

Total 29,137,205 29,060,688 -76,517 -0.3%

Page 90: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in Labor Force by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Dec06-Jan07

AvgDec08-Jan09

AvgAbsolute Change

Relative Change

High School Dropout 1,926,990 1,854,476 -72,514 -3.8%

High School Graduate 9,299,473 9,273,098 -26,375 -0.3%

Some College 8,426,576 8,576,418 149,842 1.8%

Bachelor's or Higher 9,226,876 9,356,696 129,820 1.4%

Total 28,879,915 29,060,688 180,773 0.6%

Page 91: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands

 SectorDecembe

r 2007Decembe

r 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 138,078.0 135,489.0 -2,589.0 -1.9%

Total Private 115,745 112,975 -2,770 -2.4%

Goods-Producing 21,976 20,616 -1,360 -6.2%

Service-Providing 116,102 114,873 -1,229 -1.1%

Private Service-Providing 93,769 92,359 -1,410 -1.5%

Federal Govt. 2,735 2,755 20 0.7%

State Govt. 5,153 5,221 68 1.3%State Govt. Education Services 2,333 2,389 57 2.4%

Local Govt. 14,445 14,538 93 0.6%Local Govt. Education Services 8,017 8,042 25 0.3%

Page 92: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands

 SectorDecembe

r 2007August

2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 138,078.0 137,423.0 -655.0 -0.5%

Total Private 115,745 114,909 -836 -0.7%

Goods-Producing 21,976 21,367 -609 -2.8%

Service-Providing 116,102 116,056 -46 0.0%

Private Service-Providing 93.769 93,542 -227 -0.2%

Federal Govt. 2,735 2,748 13 0.5%

State Govt. 5,153 5,210 57 1.1%State Govt. Education Services 2,333 2,379 46 2.0%

Local Govt. 14,445 14,556 111 0.8%Local Govt. Education Services 8,017 8,059 42 0.5%

Page 93: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands

  Dec 2007 Aug 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 138,078.0 137,423.0 -655.0 -0.5%Natural Resources and Mining 739.0 788.0 49.0 6.6%Construction 7,465.0 7,153.0 -312.0 -4.2%Manufacturing 137,72.0 13,426.0 -346.0 -2.5%Trade, Transport, Utilities 26,658.0 26,346.0 -312.0 -1.2%Wholesale Trade 6,072.9 6,007.1 -65.8 -1.1%Retail Trade 15,487.8 15,274.7 -213.1 -1.4%

Information 3,018.0 2,984.0 -34.0 -1.1%Financial Activities 8,252.0 8,196.0 -56.0 -0.7%Professional and Business Services 18,131.0 17,854.0 -277.0 -1.5%Professional and Technical Services 7,820.5 7,859.5 39.0 0.5%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,847.8 1,832.1 -15.7 -0.8%Administrative and Waste Service 8,462.8 8,162.7 -300.1 -3.5%

Education and Health Services 18,568.0 18,997.0 429.0 2.3%Leisure and Hospitality 13,635.0 13,639.0 4.0 0.0%Other Services 5,507.0 5,526.0 19.0 0.3%Government 22,333.0 22,514.0 181.0 0.8%

Page 94: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands

 SectorAugust

2008Decembe

r 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 137,423 135,489 -1,934 -1.4%

Total Private 114,909 112,975 -1,934 -1.7%

Goods-Producing 21,367 20,616 -751 -3.5%

Service-Providing 116056 114,873 -1,183 -1.0%

Private Service-Providing 93,542 92,359 -1,183 -1.3%

Federal Govt. 2,748 2,755 7 0.3%

State Govt. 5,210 5,221 11 0.2%State Govt. Education Services 2,379 2,389 11 0.4%

Local Govt. 14,556 14,538 -18 -0.1%Local Govt. Education Services 8,059 8,042 -17 -0.2%

Page 95: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands

  Aug 2008 Dec 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 137,423.0 135,489.0 -1,934.0 -1.4%

Natural Resources and Mining 788.0 802.0 14.0 1.8%

Construction 7,153.0 6,833.0 -320.0 -4.5%

Manufacturing 13,426.0 12,981.0 -445.0 -3.3%

Trade, Transport, Utilities 26,346.0 25,833.0 -513.0 -1.9%

Wholesale Trade 6,007.1 5,909.4 -97.7 -1.6%

Retail Trade 15,274.7 14,965.5 -309.2 -2.0%

Information 2,984.0 2,933.0 -51.0 -1.7%

Financial Activities 8,196.0 8,104.0 -92.0 -1.1%

Professional and Business Services 17,854.0 17,450.0 -404.0 -2.3%

Professional and Technical Services 7,859.5 7,827.8 -31.7 -0.4%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,832.1 1,797.2 -34.9 -1.9%

Administrative and Waste Service 8,162.7 7,824.6 -338.1 -4.1%

Education and Health Services 18,997.0 19,104.0 107.0 0.6%

Leisure and Hospitality 13,639.0 13,468.0 -171.0 -1.3%

Other Services 5,526.0 5,467.0 -59.0 -1.1%

Government 22,514.0 22,514.0 0.0 0.0%

Page 96: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Who Lost Jobs? Age, Gender, Race, Educational and Occupational Characteristics of 2008 Employment Losses in the Nation

Page 97: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Persons

Page 98: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Gender

 GenderDecember

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total, 16+ 146,294 143,338 -2,956 -2.0%

Men 78,315 75,881 -2,434 -3.1%

Women 67,975 67,434 -541 -0.8%

Page 99: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age

 AgeDecember

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 5,822 5,194 -628 -10.8%

20-24 13,731 13,374 -357 -2.6%

25-34 31,652 30,864 -788 -2.5%

34-54 68,867 66,788 -2,079 -3.0%

55+ 26,218 27,096 878 3.3%

Page 100: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Persons(16 and Older) By Age, December 2007 to

December 2008

-628

-357

-788

-2079

878

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

16-19 20-24 25-34 34-54 55+

Page 101: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Males Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age

 Age (Males)December

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 2,779 2,562 -217 -7.8%

20-24 7,279 6,863 -416 -5.7%

25-34 17,442 16,789 -653 -3.7%

34-54 36,913 35,339 -1,574 -4.3%

55+ 13,902 14,328 426 3.1%

Page 102: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Females Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age

 Age (Females)

December 2007

December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 3,043 2,632 -411 -13.5%

20-24 6,452 6,510 58 0.9%

25-34 14,210 14,075 -135 -1.0%

34-54 31,954 31,448 -506 -1.6%

55+ 12,316 12,769 453 3.7%

Page 103: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Race-

Ethnicity

Race-EthnicityDecember

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

White 119,947 117,357 -2,590 -2.2%

Black 16,013 15,674 -339 -2.1%

Asian* 6,958 6,857 -101 -1.5%

Hispanic** 21,861 22,134 273 1.2%

Page 104: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Males 20+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity

Race-Ethnicity (Males, 20+)

December 2007

December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

White 62,692 61,101 -1,591 -2.5%

Black 7244 6930 -314 -4.3%

Asian* NA NA NA NA

Hispanic** 11,921 11,558 -363 -3.0%

Page 105: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 25+ in the U.S. by

Educational Attainment

Educational Attainment 

December2007

December2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total, 25+ 126,961 124,962 -1,999 -1.6%

Dropout 11,356 10,793 -563 -5.0%

High School Graduate 36,928 35,683 -1,245 -3.4%

Some College 35,071 34,969 -102 -0.3%

Bachelor's or higher 43,606 43,517 -89 -0.2%

Page 106: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Distribution of Employment Losses Among Persons Aged 25+, by Educational

Attainment, December 2007 to December 2008

High School

Graduate63%

High School

Dropout28%

Bachelor's or more

4%

Some College

5%

Page 107: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Occupation December

2007December,

2008 Abs.

ChangeRelative Change

Management and Finance 21,699 21,928 229 1.1%

Professional/Related 30,625 30,619 -6 0.0%

Service Occupations 23,551 24,371 820 3.5%

Sales 16,654 16,354 -300 -1.8%

Office and Admin. Support 19,812 18,633 -1,179 -6.0%

Construction Occs. 9,302 8,025 -1,277 -13.7%

Installation/Repair 5,226 5,276 50 1.0%

Production 9,468 8,421 -1,047 -11.1%

Trans./Material Moving 9,075 8,821 -254 -2.8%

Page 108: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons

Page 109: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Gender

 GenderDecember

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total, 16+ 7,541 11,108 3,567 47.3%

Men 4,115 6,460 2,345 57.0%

Women 3,429 4,628 1,199 35.0%

Page 110: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Unemployment Relative Change

Page 111: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Unemployment 5 Best & Worst States

Page 112: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

October & November 2008 Unemployment by State

Page 113: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Gender

GenderDecember

2007December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total, 16+ 153,835 154,446 611 0.4%

Men 82,430 82,341 -89 -0.1%

Women 71,404 72,062 658 0.9%

Page 114: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age

 AgeDecember

2007December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 1,183 1,363 180 15.2%

20-24 1,391 1,843 452 32.5%

25-34 1,601 2,490 889 55.5%

34-54 2,559 4,036 1,477 57.7%

55+ 843 1,409 566 67.1%

Page 115: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age

AgeDecember

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 7,005 6,557 -448 -6.4%

20-24 15,122 15,217 95 0.6%

25-34 33,253 33,354 101 0.3%

34-54 71,426 70,824 -602 -0.8%

55+ 27,061 28,505 1,444 5.3%

Page 116: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Unemployed Males Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age

Age (Males)December

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 677 777 100 14.8%

20-24 780 1,137 357 45.8%

25-34 902 1,510 608 67.4%

34-54 1,309 2,261 952 72.7%

55+ 447 775 328 73.4%

Page 117: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Males Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age

Age (Males)December

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 3,456 3,339 -117 -3.4%

20-24 8,059 8,000 -59 -0.7%

25-34 18,344 18,299 -45 -0.2%

34-54 38,222 37,600 -622 -1.6%

55+ 14,349 15,103 754 5.3%

Page 118: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Unemployed Females Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age

Age (Females)December

2007December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 506 587 81 16.0%

20-24 611 707 96 15.7%

25-34 698 981 283 40.5%

34-54 1,248 1,776 528 42.3%

55+ 366 577 211 57.7%

Page 119: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Females Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age

Age (Females) 

December 2007

December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

16-19 3,549 3,219 -330 -9.3%

20-24 7,063 7,217 154 2.2%

25-34 14,908 15,056 148 1.0%

34-54 33,202 33,224 22 0.1%

55+ 12,682 13,346 664 5.2%

Page 120: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Race-

Ethnicity

Race-EthnicityDecember

2007December

2008

Absolute

ChangeRelative Change

White 5,456 8,277 2,821 51.7%

Black 1,561 2,122 561 35.9%

Asian* 267 365 98 36.7%

Hispanic** 1,357 2,038 681 50.2%

Page 121: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity

Race-EthnicityDecember

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

White 125,403 125,634 231 0.2%

Black 17,574 17,796 222 1.3%

Asian* 7,225 7,222 -3 0.0%

Hispanic** 23,218 24,172 954 4.1%

Page 122: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Unemployed Males Aged 20+ in the U.S. by Race-

Ethnicity

Race-Ethnicity (Males, 20+)

December 2007

December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

White 2,542 4,230 1,688 66.4%

Black 644 1,069 425 66.0%

Asian* NA NA NA NA

Hispanic** 733 1,194 461 62.9%

Page 123: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Size of the Male Labor Force Aged 20+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity

Race-Ethnicity (Males, 20+)

December 2007

December 2008

Absolute

ChangeRelative Change

White 65,234 65,331 97 0.1%

Black 7,244 6,930 -314 -4.3%

Asian* NA NA NA NA

Hispanic** 12,654 12,752 98 0.8%

Page 124: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons Aged 25+ in the U.S. by

Educational Attainment

Educational Attainment

December2007

December2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total, 25+ 5,015 8,032 3,017 60.2%

Dropout 927 1,315 388 41.9%

High School Graduate 1,786 2,972 1,186 66.4%

Some College 1,356 2,080 724 53.4%

Bachelor's or higher 946 1,665 719 76.0%

Page 125: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Aged

25+ in the U.S. by Educational Attainment

Educational Attainment 

December 2007

December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total, 25+ 131,976 132,994 -1,999 -1.6%

Dropout 12,283 12,108 -175 -1.4%

High School Graduate 38,714 38,655 -59 -0.2%

Some College 36,427 37,049 622 1.7%

Bachelor's or higher 44,552 45,182 630 1.4%

Page 126: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons (Experienced Labor Force) Aged 16+ in the U.S. (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

OccupationDec. 2007

Dec. 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

Management and Finance 461 888 427 92.6%

Professional/Related 580 915 335 57.8%

Service Occupations 1,571 2,057 486 30.9%

Sales 903 1,233 330 36.5%

Office and Admin. Support 814 1,215 401 49.3%

Construction Occupations 990 1,522 532 53.7%

Installation/Repair 195 339 144 73.8%

Production 600 992 392 65.3%

Trans./Material Moving 575 936 361 62.8%

Page 127: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Size of the Experienced Labor Force Aged 16+ in the U.S.

(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

OccupationDec.2007

Dec. 2008

Absolute

Change

Relative

Change

Management and Finance 22,160 22,816 656 3.0%

Professional/Related 31,205 31,534 329 1.1%

Service Occupations 25,122 26,428 1,306 5.2%

Sales 17,557 17,587 30 0.2%

Office and Admin/Support 20,626 19,848 -778 -3.8%

Construction Occupations 10,292 9,547 -745 -7.2%

Installation/Repair 5,421 5,615 194 3.6%

Production 10,068 9,413 -655 -6.5%

Trans/Material Moving 9,650 9,757 107 1.1%

Page 128: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Unemployment & Labor Underutilization

Page 129: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in Unemployment Rates, Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity

Race-EthnicityDecember 2007

December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

White 4.4% 6.6% 2.2% 51.4%

Black 8.9% 11.9% 3.0% 34.2%

Asian* 3.7% 5.1% 1.4% 36.8%

Hispanic** 5.8% 8.4% 2.6% 44.3%

Page 130: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in Unemployment Rates of Males Aged 20+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity

Race-EthnicityDecember

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

White 3.9% 6.5% 2.6% 66.2%

Black 8.9% 15.4% 6.5% 73.5%

Asian* NA NA NA NA

Hispanic** 5.8% 9.4% 3.6% 61.6%

Page 131: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in Full-time and Part-Time

Employment

 December

2007December

2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

Full-time 121,501 116,865 -4,636 -3.8%

Part-time 24,701 26,250 1,549 6.3%

Voluntary Part-time 19,536 18,922 -614 -3.1%

Involuntary Part-Time 4,638 8,038 3,400 73.3%

Slack Work 3,101 5,304 2,203 71.0%

Page 132: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in Unemployment By Reasons

Reasons for Unemployment

December 2007

December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

Job Losers 3,785 6,471 2,686 71.0%

Job Leavers 787 1,007 220 28.0%

Reentrants 2,302 2,777 475 20.6%

New Entrants 693 829 136 19.6%

Page 133: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Distribution of the Unemployed by Reasons

Reasons for Unemployment  December 2007 December 2008

Job Losers 50.0% 58.4%

Job Leavers 10.4% 9.1%

Reentrants 30.4% 25.1%

New Entrants 9.2% 7.5%

Page 134: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Duration of Unemployment

Duration of Unemployment

December 2007

December 2008

Absolute Change

Relative Change

Less Than 5 Weeks 2,718 3,267 549 20.2%

5 to 14 Weeks 2,314 3,398 1,084 46.8%

15+ Weeks 2,284 4,517 2,233 97.8%

27+ Weeks 1,315 2,591 1,276 97.0%

Page 135: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration

Duration of Unemployment 

December 2007

December 2008

Less Than 5 Weeks 36.2% 29.2%

5 to 14 Weeks 30.8% 30.4%

15+ Weeks 33.1% 40.4%

27+ Weeks 17.5% 23.2%

Page 136: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Mean and Median Weeks of Unemployment in the U.S.

16.5

19.7

8.4

10.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

December, 2007 December, 2008

Mean Duration Median Duration

Page 137: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the 16+ Population Outside of the Labor Force, by Job Desire

Job Desire Among OLF 

December 2007

December 2008

Absolute

Change

Relative

Change

No Job Desire 79,451 80,686 1,235 1.6%

With a Job Desire 4,398 5,180 782 17.8%

Marginally Attached 1,344 1,908 564 42.0%

Page 138: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Labor Underutilization Rate and its Components

 Decembe

r2007Decembe

r2008 Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Unemployed 7,541 11,108 3,567 47.3%

Involuntarily Part-time 4,638 8,038 3,400 73.3%

Marginally Attached 1,344 1,908 564 42.0%

Labor Underutilization 13,523 21,054 7,531 55.7%

Adjusted Labor Force 155,179 156,354 1,175 0.8%

Underutilization Rate 8.7% 13.5% 4.8% 54.5%

Page 139: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Unemployment and Underutilization Rates of the 16+

Population

4.8%

7.1%

8.7%

13.5%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

December, 2007 December, 2008

Official Unemployment Rate Underutilization Rate

Page 140: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trends in the Estimates of Demand Deficiency in the Labor Market

Time Period

Numberof Unemp.

Persons

Numberof Job

Openings

Ratio of Unemp.to Job

OpeningsDemand Deficient

Structural/ Frictional

December 2006-January 2007 7,029 4,277 1.6 39.2% 60.8%December 2007-January 2008 7,555 3,974 1.9 47.4% 52.6%August-September, 2008 9,592 3,374 2.8 64.8% 35.2%November-December 2008 11,108 2,793 4.0 74.9% 25.1%

Page 141: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Re-Employment and Job Vacancy

Page 142: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level and Rate of Job Openings in the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands)

Sector    Q4 2007

Oct-Nov Average

2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 

Level 3,996.7 2,897.0 -1,099.7 -27.5%Rate 2.8 2.1 -0.8  

Construction 

Level 142.7 65.5 -77.2 -54.1%Rate 1.8 1.0 -0.9  

Manufacturing 

Level 303.7 177.5 -126.2 -41.5%Rate 2.2 1.4 -0.9  

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 

Level 653.0 530.5 -122.5 -18.8%

Rate 2.4 2.0 -0.4  Retail Trade 

Level 341.0 350.5 9.5 2.8%Rate 2.2 2.3 0.1  

Professional and Business Services 

Level 716.3 478.5 -237.8 -33.2%

Rate 3.8 2.6 -1.2  Education and Health Services 

Level 705.0 599.0 -106.0 -15.0%

Rate 3.7 3.1 -0.6  Leisure and Hospitality 

Level 593.0 327.5 -265.5 -44.8%Rate 4.2 2.4 -1.8  

Government 

Level 449.3 402.0 -47.3 -10.5%

Rate 2.0 1.8 -0.3  

Page 143: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level of Job Openings in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average

2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands)

 Region   Q4 2007

Oct-Nov Average

2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Northeast 

Level 643.3 523.5 -119.8 -18.6%

Rate 2.4 2.1 -0.4  

South 

Level 1,607.7 1,138.5 -469.2 -29.2%

Rate 3.2 2.3 -0.9  

Midwest 

Level 760.3 597.5 -162.8 -21.4%

Rate 2.3 1.9 -0.4  

West 

Level 986.3 651.0 -335.3 -34.0%

Rate 3.1 2.1 -1.1  

Page 144: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trend in the Level of Total Nonfarm Job Openings in the U.S. 2007-2008

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug-0

7

Sep-

07

Oct-0

7

Nov-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr-0

8

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug-0

8

Sep-

08

Oct-0

8

Nov-0

80

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Page 145: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level and Rate of Hires in the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in

Thousands)

Sector    Q4 2007

Oct-Nov Average

2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 

Level 4,767.7 3,851.5 -916.2 -19.2%Rate 3.5 2.8 -0.7  

Construction 

Level 339.0 285.0 -54.0 -15.9%Rate 4.5 4.1 -0.5  

Manufacturing 

Level 366.3 236.5 -129.8 -35.4%Rate 2.7 1.8 -0.9  

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 

Level 978.0 781.5 -196.5 -20.1%

Rate 3.6 3.0 -0.6  

Retail Trade 

Level 682.3 533.0 -149.3 -21.9%

Rate 4.4 3.5 -0.9  Professional and Business Services 

Level 869.3 733.5 -135.8 -15.6%

Rate 4.8 4.2 -0.6  Education and Health Services 

Level 501.3 475.0 -26.3 -5.3%

Rate 2.7 2.5 -0.2  

Leisure and Hospitality 

Level 883.3 656.5 -226.8 -25.7%Rate 6.5 4.9 -1.6  

Government 

Level 370.7 307.0 -63.7 -17.2%Rate 1.7 1.4 -0.3  

Page 146: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level of Hires in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average

2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands)

 Region   Q4 2007Oct-Nov

Average 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Northeast 

Level 728.0 573.5 -154.5 -21.2%

Rate 2.8 2.3 -0.6  

South 

Level 1851.3 1,419.5 -431.8 -23.3%

Rate 3.7 2.9 -0.8  

Midwest 

Level 1,056.3 876.0 -180.3 -17.1%

Rate 3.4 2.8 -0.6  

West 

Level 1,100.3 924.5 -175.8 -16.0%

Rate 3.5 3.1 -0.5  

Page 147: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trend in the Level of Total Nonfarm Hires in the U.S. 2007-2008

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug-0

7

Sep-

07

Oct-0

7

Nov-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr-0

8

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug-0

8

Sep-

08

Oct-0

8

Nov-0

80

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Page 148: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level and Rate of Separations in the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average

2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands)

Sector    Q4 2007

Oct-Nov Average

2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 

Level 4,547.3 4,300.0 -247.3 -5.4%Rate 3.3 3.2 -0.1  

Construction 

Level 336.0 436.5 100.5 29.9%Rate 4.5 6.3 1.8  

Manufacturing 

Level 372.7 406.0 33.3 8.9%Rate 2.7 3.1 0.3  

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 

Level 1,018.7 925.5 -93.2 -9.1%

Rate 3.8 3.6 -0.3  Retail Trade 

Level 717.3 615.0 -102.3 -14.3%Rate 4.6 4.1 -0.5  

Professional and Business Services 

Level 875.7 760.5 -115.2 -13.2%

Rate 4.9 4.4 -0.5  Education and Health Services 

Level 424.7 414.5 -10.2 -2.4%

Rate 2.3 2.2 -0.1  Leisure and Hospitality 

Level 787.7 677.0 -110.7 -14.0%Rate 5.8 5.0 -0.8  

Government 

Level 289.0 262.5 -26.5 -9.2%

Rate 1.3 1.2 -0.1  

Page 149: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level of Separations in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted

(Levels in Thousands)

 Region   Q4 2007

Oct-Nov Average

2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Northeast 

Level 715.7 629.5 -86.2 -12.0%

Rate 2.8 2.5 -0.3  

South 

Level 1,728.3 1,587.5 -140.8 -8.1%

Rate 3.4 3.3 -0.2  

Midwest 

Level 982.7 979.5 -3.2 -0.3%

Rate 3.1 3.2 0.0  

West 

Level 1,140.0 1,119.5 -20.5 -1.8%

Rate 3.7 3.7 0.0  

Page 150: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trend in the Level of Total Nonfarm Separations in the U.S. 2007-2008

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug-0

7

Sep-

07

Oct-0

7

Nov-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr-0

8

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug-0

8

Sep-

08

Oct-0

8

Nov-0

83600

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

Page 151: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level and Rate of Quits in the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in

Thousands )

Sector    Q4 2007

Oct-Nov Average

2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 

Level 2547.7 2002.5 -545.2 -21.4%Rate 1.8 1.5 -0.3  

Construction 

Level 124.0 94.5 -29.5 -23.8%Rate 1.6 1.4 -0.3  

Manufacturing 

Level 189.3 140.0 -49.3 -26.1%Rate 1.4 1.1 -0.3  

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 

Level 583.3 444.5 -138.8 -23.8%

Rate 2.2 1.7 -0.5  Retail Trade 

Level 436.7 316.0 -120.7 -27.6%Rate 2.8 2.1 -0.8  

Professional and Business Services 

Level 414.7 345.5 -69.2 -16.7%

Rate 2.3 2.0 -0.4  Education and Health Services 

Level 263.7 239.0 -24.7 -9.4%

Rate 1.4 1.3 -0.2  Leisure and Hospitality 

Level 554.3 435.0 -119.3 -21.5%Rate 4.1 3.2 -0.9  

Government 

Level 140.3 113.0 -27.3 -19.5%Rate 0.6 0.5 -0.1  

Page 152: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level of Quits in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands )

 Region   Q4 2007

Oct-Nov Average

2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Northeast 

Level 339.0 275.0 -64.0 -18.9%

Rate 1.3 1.1 -0.3  

South 

Level 1030.7 790.5 -240.2 -23.3%

Rate 2.1 1.6 -0.5  

Midwest 

Level 524.7 467.0 -57.7 -11.0%

Rate 1.7 1.5 -0.2  

West 

Level 643.3 472.0 -171.3 -26.6%

Rate 2.1 1.6 -0.5  

Page 153: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Trend in the Level of Total Nonfarm Quits in the U.S. 2007-2008

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug-0

7

Sep-

07

Oct-0

7

Nov-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr-0

8

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug-0

8

Sep-

08

Oct-0

8

Nov-0

80

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Page 154: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level of Net Hires and Separations in

the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands )

Sector Q4 2007Oct-Nov

Average 2008Total Nonfarm  220.3 -448.5Construction  3.0 -151.5Manufacturing  -6.3 -169.5Trade, Transportation, and Utilities  -40.7 -144.0Retail Trade  -35.0 -82.0Professional and Business Services  -6.3 -27.0Education and Health Services  76.7 60.5Leisure and Hospitality  95.7 -20.5Government  81.7 44.5

Page 155: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in the Level of Net Hires and Separations in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted

(Levels in Thousands )

 Region Q4 2007Oct-Nov

Average 2008

Northeast 12.3 -56.0

South 123.0 -168.0

Midwest 73.7 -103.5

West -39.7 -195.0

Page 156: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

MAPS

Page 157: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted by Region Quarter 4 2007

Page 158: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted by Region October & November 2008

Page 159: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Employment Relative Change

Page 160: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Unemployment Relative Change

Page 161: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Employment 5 Best & Worst States

Page 162: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Unemployment 5 Best & Worst States

Page 163: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

October & November 2008 Unemployment by State

Page 164: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands

  Dec 2007 Dec 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 138,078.0 135,489.0 -2,589.0 -1.9%

Natural Resources and Mining 739.0 802.0 63.0 8.5%

Construction 7,465.0 6,833.0 -632.0 -8.5%

Manufacturing 13,772.0 12,981.0 -791.0 -5.7%

Trade, Transport, Utilities 26,658.0 25,833.0 -825.0 -3.1%

Wholesale Trade 6,072.9 5,909.4 -163.5 -2.7%

Retail Trade 15,487.8 14,965.5 -522.3 -3.4%

Information 3,018.0 2,933.0 -85.0 -2.8%

Financial Activities 8,252.0 8,104.0 -148.0 -1.8%

Professional and Business Services 18,131.0 17,450.0 -681.0 -3.8%

Professional and Technical Services 7,820.5 7,827.8 7.3 0.1%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,847.8 1,797.2 -50.6 -2.7%

Administrative and Waste Service 8,462.8 7,824.6 -638.2 -7.5%

Education and Health Services 18,568.0 19,104.0 536.0 2.9%

Leisure and Hospitality 13,635.0 13,468.0 -167.0 -1.2%

Other Services 5,507.0 5,467.0 -40.0 -0.7%

Government 22,333.0 22,514.0 181.0 0.8%

Page 165: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Changes in U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands

  Q4 2007 Q4 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 138,030.7 136,033.0 -1,997.7 -1.4%Natural Resources and Mining 733.7 800.3 66.7 9.1%

Construction 7,520.7 6,928.7 592.0 -7.9%

Manufacturing 13,787.7 13,115.0 -672.7 -4.9%

Trade, Transport, Utilities 26,665.0 25,968.3 -696.7 -2.6%

Wholesale Trade 6,072.6 5,940.3 -132.2 -2.2%

Retail Trade 15,490.0 1,5043.2 -446.8 -2.9%

Information 3,022.3 2,952.7 -69.7 -2.3%

Financial Activities 8,265.0 8,122.7 -142.3 -1.7%

Professional and Business Services 18,093.3 17,573.7 -519.7 -2.9%

Professional and Technical Services 7,788.2 7,846.0 57.8 0.7%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,852.9 1,807.0 -45.9 -2.5%

Administrative and Waste Service 8,452.2 7,920.4 -531.8 -6.3%

Education and Health Services 18,526.7 19,058.3 531.7 2.9%

Leisure and Hospitality 13,622.3 13,505.0 -117.3 -0.9%

Other Services 5,503.0 5,498.0 -5.0 -0.1%

Government 22,291.0 22,510.3 219.3 1.0%

Page 166: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands

 Sector Q4 2007 Q4 2008Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total Nonfarm 138,031 136,033 -1,998 -1.4%

Total Private 115,740 113,523 -2,217 -1.9%

Goods-Producing 22,042 20,844 -1,198 -5.4%

Service-Providing 115,989 115,189 -800 -0.7%

Private Service-Providing 93,698 92,679 -1,019 -1.1%

Federal Govt. 2,728 2,757 28 1.0%

State Govt. 5,141 5,215 74 1.4%State Govt. Education Services 2,324 2,384 60 2.6%

Local Govt. 14,422 14,539 117 0.8%Local Govt. Education Services 8,004 8,046 43 0.5%

Page 167: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

A Thumbnail Sketch of the Economic Crisis

An Economy out of BalanceTotal GDP 2000 to 2007 $92.5 TrillionTotal Purchases of G&S $97.0 Trillion

Difference -$4.5 Trillion

Page 168: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

How did we purchase more than we produced?

Purchased Goods from OverseasU.S. Balance of Trade Deficit increased by about $4.5 Trillion

Page 169: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

How did we pay for excess consumption?

Household debt doubled by $6.8 trillionBetween 2000 and 2005 average home price doubledAlmost half of this debt secured by mortgagesSavings rate fell to zero

Page 170: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

A Housing Bubble “Market Values Fluctuate: Debt is Forever”

Unlike equity bubbles housing bubbles quickly convert to spendingBanks “make your home work for you”Out of $6.8 Trillion increase in debt, $4.2 Trillion NOT spent on housingConsumer electronics/autos/trucks

Page 171: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Who lent us the money?

China, oil producers including Russia and Saudi ArabiaThese nations purchased U.S. Treasuries-safe and secureHeld assets in U.S. banks—swelling domestic banking reserves

Page 172: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

How did this fuel borrowing and spending?

Large reserves fueled rapid growth in money supply

Fractional reserve lending system meant that growth in reserves resulted in large growth in money supply via the money multiplier –result was low interest rates

Page 173: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Federal Reserve Response

Fed did nothingGreenspan: World has entered into a “new economic paradigm (rejection of liquidity preference theory and acceptance of the efficient market theory)Prices set in asset and housing markets are ‘correct’

Page 174: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Fed continued

Absence of inflation over 2000 to 2005 led to fed to inactionFed supported rising asset pricesPermitted rapid expansion in money supply and declining real interest ratesFueled further increases in housing and stock markets (asset inflation)

Page 175: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

What’s different about this downturn?

Rise in asset values are based on financiers making increasingly risky loansBanks developed new ways of sell off these risky loans into world markets

CDOs Credit Default Swaps

Estimated $30 Trillion losses in wealth across the world

Page 176: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

How did housing bubble burst?

Mortgage loans made to people with no hope of making payments

1. Sub-prime2. Home equity loans based on

assumption of perpetually rising housing prices

3. Teaser rates4. Home values collapse -down 25

Percent since mid 2006

Page 177: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Problem is now well beyond mortgage backed securities and housing market

Commercial lendingCredit card lendingAuto lendingAll suffering rising default problemsSo banking system sharply reduces lending—money multiplier collapses—liquidity trap

Page 178: Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary Economic Context Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts.

Financial meltdown has led to deflation

Deflation is a downward pressure on prices that sharply reduces the level of output, employment and incomeDeflation is a self-reinforcing downward spiral based on future expectations about prices that reflect overall economic conditions