Towards sustainability

Outlook, models and methodsEconomics

Where can I start today?

Stephen Hinton, Sustainable Development Consultant

1800sStart of oil

age

Peak Oil production per

capita1979

2008Runaway oil priceFood price hike

Ecological and ClimateSystem

destabilisation?

Peak of Oil Discovery

1968

Activities surpass

biocapacity1988

Peak soil, phosphorous, water,

etc

The end of the oil age has been coming a long time

Oil production surpasses discovery

1980

2005Peak of cheap oil production

Global Economic downturn

Oil production per capita globally in time

During that time, gigantic, fuel-dependant supply chains have developed

• Complex business and banking models accompany these chains

For each kg of product they supply, they release 30 kg of waste

Complex business and banking models accompany these chains

For each kg of product they supply, they release 30 kg of waste

The long complicated supply chains of today are sensitive to fuel prices

and emission standards

extract-tion

rawmaterials

compo-nents

modules& parts

assembly

wholesale

retail

use

scrap

Even the egg is the end result of a long, complex, chemical, industrial

supply chain

Even your breakfast egg

Where are we headed now? CatastropheWhere are we headed today?

New situations call for a new approach: innovation

Quick fix Use known solution

Innovate BusinessAs usual

New OldSituation

Du

rati

on

Tem

po

rary

Per

man

en

t

Source: Peter Drucker

Healthy Environment

Healthy Individuals

Thriving Communities

Organizations in economic

balance

Sustainability is a lasting dynamic balance

between these factors

The sustainability model

People don’t want money, they want the services money can buy

The service

Operation and maintenance

Construction

Minerals and biomass

Working hours

The matrix of investment choices

HI

HI LO

LO

OPERATION & MAINTENANCE

CO

NS

TR

UC

TIO

N &

CO

MM

ISS

ION

ING

INCREASE EFFICIENCY (e.g energy wasting housing)

Compare of strategies for technical and social infrastructure “living arrangements”

Use wisely (e.g hydropower)

INCREASE USEe.g. baskets, bikes

BUILD ONCE USE A HUNDRED YEARS

Make, use, recycle

REPLACE (e.g. car based transport system)

The largest energy saving opportunity is in food

Accumulated costs

Time

A

B

C

If energy prices continue to rise the best investment is (c) in sustainable technology

A= accumulated costs if energy prices remain stable B= energy prices increaseC= accumulated costs after investment in renewables

The price you pay accumulated over time for housing, food and transport. Three scenarios

Corporate structure hinders local investment

• The majority of companies are small and medium size

• The majority of profits are made by large publicly traded corporations

• Most capital is in large corporations ( pension schemes, funds, insurance etc)

• Eg every eighth £ is spent in Tesco’s

Financial capital means nothing without cheap and abundant energy

• Social capital more important

• Owning means of production (eg. Land, water power, low maintenance buildings)

Peak oil, energy price rises

Collapse of world economy

Destabilisation of climate system

People’s lack of belief in ”business as usual”

relocalisation

Why relocalisation is the answer

Two main models of sustainable investment

Arrange conditional loans to small local enterprises

Use facilities at production price as long as your money is in the business

Join a cooperative

Buy land and energy capture facilities

Learn to live together (100 friends and a farmer)

Two methods to finance local production of essential services

Overview of eco-unit

Things to consider

• Get to understand the situation. You need to understand it for yourself as corporates and governments talk in their own interests

• Get out of debt• Review your housing. Is it energy efficient, close to public transport and

services?• Get to know local small businesses and with others look to small capital

loan possibilities • Subscribe to local organics food box• Ditch the car (carpooling, local minibuses etc )• Join groups• Learn the skills of the basics• Invest in renewable energy• Find a way to own land• Find your tribe• Work locally in your neighbors’ association, parent teachers, local council

etc. • Consider all the above again from the point of view of small business owner

or employee