UNDERSTANDING RISKS to CULTURAL PROPERTY · 2016-05-04 · Watch out & Be careful ... Many risk...

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2015-10-13 1

Robert WallerProtect Heritage Corp.

2015 September

UNDERSTANDING RISKSto

CULTURAL PROPERTY

International Institutefor Conservation of

Historic and Artistic Works

This presentation

Is:

• Why a risk-based approach

• Introduction to basic concepts

Is not:

• Detailed instructions on quantifying risks

• All approaches

We all take risks every day

• Watch out & Be careful• Basic checklists• Scored checklists• Quantitative risk analysis (QRA)

Degrees of risk awareness

• Watch out & Be careful• Basic checklists• Scored checklists• Quantitative risk analysis (QRA or PRA)


• Watch out & Be careful• Basic checklists• Scored checklists• Quantitative risk analysis (QRA)


Diverse Collections

My wake up moment

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Define context and scope Identify risks Determine expected losseso Evaluate risks (Thursday)o Manage risks (Thursday)



Define context, goal, and scope Identify risks Determine expected losseso Evaluate risks (Thursday)o Manage risks (Thursday)


Need: A clear common goal

The Risks 21172017

21172017




Identify and define risks

Agents of change Physical forces Fire Water Criminals Pests Contaminants Light, UV, radiation Incorrect temperature Incorrect relative humidity Dissociation


Frequency

Seve

rity


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Many risk assessment schemes present risks within a simple matrix showing frequency and severity. Each risk considered would plot somewhere on the matrix according to how high the frequency and severity are. R1 would indicate a risk event with high severity and low frequency. R2 would indicate a risk event with low severity and low frequency.


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Many risk assessment schemes present risks within a simple matrix showing frequency and severity. Each risk considered would plot somewhere on the matrix according to how high the frequency and severity are. R1 would indicate a risk event with high severity and low frequency. R2 would indicate a risk event with low severity and low frequency.

Disaster Incident Process

< 1 per100 years

> 1 peryear

A few per decade or

century


Identify risks: define clearly

Source Path Effect


Specific Risks Considered Earthquake → Shelf collapse → Breakage

Earthquake → Toppling object → Breakage

Handling in use → Accident → Physical damage

Gravity → Poor support → Distortion



Define context and scope Identify risksDetermine expected losseso Evaluate risks (Thursday)o Manage risks (Thursday)


What do I think the chances are?

• Coin toss – heads or tails?

• Probable• Slight chance• Unlikely• Highly probable

Unlikely“unlikely that an accidental surface or subsurface oil spill

would occur from the proposed activities.”

BP's 52-page exploration plan for the Deepwater Horizon Well

Filed with the federal Minerals Management Service

Quantify risk


MR(Risk) = FS × LV × P × Ewhere:

FS ⇒ Fraction SusceptibleLV ⇒ Loss in ValueP ⇒ ProbabilityE ⇒ Extent

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /C

entu

ryH

uge

rang

e

1/1,000or

1/1,000,000

27.1234or

27.1232


MR = FSxLVxPxE

The Forest

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /C

entu

ry


Risk profile by collection unitsCultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

The ForestR

isk

/Cen

tury


Risk profile by generic riskCultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Vilfredo Pareto1848 - 1923

Pareto distribution

0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Mag

nitu

de o

f ris

k

Each risk

0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Mag

nitu

de o

f ris

k

Pareto distribution with total

0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Mag

nitu

de o

f ris

k

90 60 30

Pareto distributionmanage risks 1, 2, 3

0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Mag

nitu

de o

f ris

k

90 60 30


0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Mag

nitu

de o

f ris

k

9060 30


0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Mag

nitu

de o

f ris

k

90 60 30


0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Mag

nitu

de o

f ris

k

9060

30


0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Mag

nitu

de o

f ris

k

906030


0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Mag

nitu

de o

f ris

k

90 60 30


UNDERSTANDING RISKS to CULTURAL PROPERTY · 2016-05-04 · Watch out & Be careful ... Many risk...

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