Understanding how our process responds to market risk€¦ · RISK 57 RISK 58 RISK 68 RISK 69 RISK...

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Chris Featherstone, CFP®, ChFC Jeff Mullen Andrew Barfoot t: 206.623.6722 e: [email protected] w: MADISONPARKCA.COM Understanding how our process responds to market risk

Transcript of Understanding how our process responds to market risk€¦ · RISK 57 RISK 58 RISK 68 RISK 69 RISK...

Page 1: Understanding how our process responds to market risk€¦ · RISK 57 RISK 58 RISK 68 RISK 69 RISK 80 RISK 81 RISK 99 BALANCED RISK 85 RISK 74 RISK 63 RISK 46 RISK 29 When you complete

Chris Featherstone, CFP®, ChFC

Jeff MullenAndrew Barfoot

t: 206.623.6722

e: [email protected] w: MADISONPARKCA.COM

Understanding how our process responds to market risk

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ULTRA CONSERVATIVE

AGGRESSIVE GROWTH

Investing Within the Bounds of a Client’s Risk Tolerance

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BALANCED

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When you complete the Riskalyze analysis, a “risk score” will be generated to reflect your personal risk tolerance level. Taken together with informaiton from your financial plan, this score allows us to assign your account to one of five risk-adjusted investment models ranging from ‘Ultra Conservative’ to ‘Aggressive Growth’ (most of our clients fall somewhere in between). Your account will be assigned based on the bands represented above, which were developed by analyzing historical data about the risk levels of our models across multiple market cycles.

The following pages explain how our models respond to risk, and can move in and out of these historical bands to protect downside volalitity and capture upside opportunity.

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Tactical Asset Allocation Bands

US EQUITY

INT'L EQUITY

FIXED INCOME

ALTERNATIVES

TACTICAL CASH

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

US EQUITY

INT'L EQUITY

FIXED INCOME

ALTERNATIVES

TACTICAL CASH

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

US EQUITY

INT'L EQUITY

FIXED INCOME

ALTERNATIVES

TACTICAL CASH

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

US EQUITY INT'L EQUITY FIXED INCOME ALTERNATIVES TACTICAL CASHMIN MAX MIN MAX MIN MAX MIN MAX MIN MAX

Ultra Conservative Profile 1 0% 50% 0% 20% 60% 80% 0% 10% 0% 50%Conservative Profile 2 0% 50% 0% 20% 40% 80% 0% 20% 0% 50%Balanced Profile 3 20% 75% 5% 25% 20% 60% 0% 25% 0% 50%Growth Profile 4 10% 80% 10% 40% 10% 40% 0% 30% 0% 50%Aggressive Growth Profile 5 10% 80% 10% 40% 0% 40% 0% 40% 0% 60%

GROWTH (PROFILE 4)

CONSERVATIVE (PROFILE 2)

BALANCED (PROFILE 3)

Tactical Asset Allocation Bands

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The following data shows how Madison Park Capital Advisors’ proprietary and disciplined investment process has historically responded ahead of and following major changes in market conditions. Utilizing relative strength methodology, our process has been able to anticipate and respond to these significant changes in the markets, helping to limit downside risk and maximize risk-adjusted returns within the bounds of our clients’ individual risk tolerance.

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ConservativeBalancedGrowth

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20

30

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60

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Comparing Riskalyze Risk Numbers of Different Portfolios

Conservative Balanced Growth

All numbers as of the 1st day of each specified month.

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- Profile -CONSERVATIVE

Sam

ple:

May

201

5

47

36

10

48

62 60 60 59

51

54 54

60 59

54 52

56

51

CONSERVATI VE PROFI LE -RI SKALYZE NUMBERS

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun -

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

95% PROBABILITY RANGE

Potential Annual Return Downside Upside

All numbers as of the 1st day of each specified month.

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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Conservative (Profile 2) Allocation Drift

CASH FIXED INCOME US EQUITY INTERNATIONAL ALTERNATIVES

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

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80%

90%

100%

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

Conservative (Profile 2) Allocation Drift

CASH FIXED INCOME US EQUITY INTERNATIONAL ALTERNATIVES

- Profile -CONSERVATIVE

How allocations tactically drifted during

the turbulent“08 Market Crisis”

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Sam

ple:

May

201

5

- Profile -balanced

68

57

26

61

75 72 72 73 72 73 73 73 72

67 64

70 73

BALANCED PROFI LE -RI SKALYZE NUMBERS

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

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-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

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Dec

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-11

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Dec

-12

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Dec

-14

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Dec

-15

95% PROBABILITY RANGE

Potential Annual Return Downside Upside

All numbers as of the 1st day of each specified month.

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

Balanced (Profile 3) Allocation Drift

CASH FIXED INCOME US EQUITY INTERNATIONAL ALTERNATIVES

0%

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20%

30%

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100%

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

Balanced (Profile 3) Allocation Drift

CASH FIXED INCOME US EQUITY INTERNATIONAL ALTERNATIVES- Profile -

balancedHow allocations

tactically drifted during the turbulent

“08 Market Crisis”

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Sam

ple:

May

201

5

- Profile -growth

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

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Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

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11

Dec

-11

Jun-

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Dec

-12

Jun-

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-15

95% PROBABILITY RANGE

Potential Annual Return Downside Upside

76

59

29

75

81 78 78 78 78 78 79 79 78

71 68

75

80

GROWTH PROFI LE -RI SKALYZE NUMBERS

All numbers as of the 1st day of each specified month.

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

Growth (Profile 4) Allocation Drift

CASH FIXED INCOME US EQUITY INTERNATIONAL ALTERNATIVES

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

Growth (Profile 4) Allocation Drift

CASH FIXED INCOME US EQUITY INTERNATIONAL ALTERNATIVES

- Profile -growthHow allocations

tactically drifted during the turbulent

“08 Market Crisis”

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Your name [email protected]

MADISON PARK CAPITAL ADVISORS

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MODELING UNDER DIFFERING MARKET OUTLOOKS

UNDERSTANDING POTENTIAL RETURNS

UNDERSTANDING DIVIDEND YIELDS & EXPENSE RATIOS

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The Risk/Reward Heatmap quickly shows you the relative risk and reward that investment choices are adding to the portfolio you’re viewing, and is also a great way to quickly glance at the un-derlying data Riskalyze is using to pro-duce the overall risk analytics.

By selecting the Risk/Reward Heatmap view, you can see a visual representation of the potential risk (red bar), potential return (green bar) and the amount of risk that is diversified out by inverse correlations (gold bar), given the data model selected.

risk/reward heatmaps

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This report includes data deemed to be from reliable sources and verified for accuracy. Madison Park Capital Advisors makes all reasonable efforts to verify that data is correct and that the information provided in this report is accurate. Information displayed is in accordance with industry standards and best practices.

The performance quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when sold or redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted, and numbers may reflect small variances due to rounding. Investment returns are reported net of all fees, including but not limited to investment advisory fees, internal management fees for mutual funds and exchange traded funds and custodial charges.

DISCLAIMER

Version 3.0 © 2015-2016 Madison Park Capital Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. Trademarks belong to their respective owners.