Understanding Crowd Dynamics - Home - The OR Society · 2006 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 363 dead, 389...

© G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still FIMA FICPEM SFIIRSM MEWI FIPM FHEA

12th June 2018

Understanding Crowd Dynamics


PhD interdisciplinary mathematics/psychology 28 years consulting experience (small, medium, large events)

UK Cabinet Office Emergency Planning College (EPC) 15 years of teaching the principles of crowd safety for major event (1999-2014)

International projects UK, USA, Australia, Netherlands, Singapore, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia

Expert witness (USA and Europe) Washington (Senate House Committee testimony), New York State (personal injury), Overcrowding (licensing), Duisburg/Germany (mass fatalities), London Underground, Lava and Ignite (fatalities), JLS Birmingham, Hillsborough Inquiry (mass fatalities), Concert London (personal injury), Chicago Arena (personal Injury), Las Vegas (personal injury), Memphis (overcrowding), Scotland Concert (personal injury)

City wide event planning experience Makkah/Hajj (Saudi Arabia), Liverpool (LIMF and Matthews Street), Austin SXSW (USA), Lincoln Christmas Market, 2011 UK Royal Wedding, Brighton Pride, Manchester City Victory Parades, Leicester Caribbean Carnival, Notting Hill Carnival, Kendal Torchlight Carnival, Commonwealth Games (UK)

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1989 Hillsborough (96 dead, over 700 injured)© G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

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2010 Love Parade (21 dead, over 540 injured)


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2014/15 Shanghai (36 dead, 46 injured)© G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

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2017 Turin (1 dead, over 1,500 injured)


“It is not enough to aim only at the minimum measure necessary for safety. That has been, at best, the approach in the past and too often not even that standard has been achieved. What is required is the vision and imagination to achieve a new ethos.”

The Rt. Hon. Lord Justice Taylor (1989) Final Report on the Hillsborough Disaster

28 years later the jury finds for “unlawful killing” Those responsible now face criminal charges

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A new ethos


!8Year Location Scale of the incident Failure Elements1989 Hillsborough, UK 96 dead, 400 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1990 Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia 1426 pilgrims crushed (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1991 Orkney, South Africa 42 dead, many injured (Overcrowding/riot) Design (Capacity + Crazing)1994 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 266 pilgrims crushed, 98 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1996 Guatemala City 83 crushed, 180 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Forged Tickets)1997 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 22 pilgrims crushed, 43 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1998 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 118 pilgrims crushed, 434 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1999 Kerala, India 51 killed, 150 injured in stampede (Reaction) Information (Weather + Running)1999 Minsk, Belarus 53 killed, 190 injured in stampede (Reaction) Information (Weather + Running)2001 Ellis Park, South Africa 43 dead, 200+ Injured (Over capacity - Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crazing)2001 Aracaju, Brazil 4 dead, including 3 children (Reaction) Information (Handouts + Crazing)2002 Yokohama, Japan 10 trampled, Mall crowd craze (Reaction) Information (Handouts + Crazing)2001 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 35 pilgrims crushed, 179 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2004 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 249 pilgrims crushed, 252 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2004 Beijing, China 37 dead, 15 injured in crowd crush (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2006 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 363 dead, 389 injured crowd crush (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2006 Manila, Philippines 74 dead, 300 injured crowd crush (Reaction) Design (Throughput)2006 Yemen, Middle East 51 dead, 238 Injured crowd crush (Reaction) Information (Political Rally)2008 Himachal Pradesh, India 146 dead, 50 injured in stampede (Narrow road) Design (Throughput)2008 Pasuran, Java 23 dead, dozens injured in Ramadan (Reaction) Information (Handouts)2009 Abidjan, Ivory Coast 22 dead, 132 injured Football (Reaction) Design (Throughput)2009 Birmingham (JLS), UK 60 injured, 4 hospitalised (JLS) (Reaction) Design (Capacity + Arrival Profile)2010 Timbuktu, Mali, West Africa 26 dead, 55 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2010 Kunda, North India 63 dead, 44 injured (Overcrowding - narrow road) Design (Throughput)2010 Johannesburg, South Africa 14 injured (Overcrowding at entry gates) Information (Forged Tickets)2010 Duisburg, Germany. 21 dead, 511 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2010 Bihar, India 10 dead, dozens injured (Reaction) Information (Over Reaction)2010 Nairobi, Kenya 7 dead, 70 injured (Reaction) Information (Rain Stopped)2010 Phnom Penh, Cambodia 347 dead, 395 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity)2011 Kerala, India 102 dead, 44 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity)2011 Bamako, Mali 36 dead, 70 Injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity)2011 Brazzaville, Congo 7 dead, 30 Injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity)2011 Jakarta, Indonesia 2 dead, 13 Injured (Overcrowding) Information (Poor Ticket Allocation)2012 Port Said, Egypt 74 dead, over 1,000 Injured (Overcrowding + rioting) Design (Throughput + Riot)2012 Cairo (copic), Egypt 3 dead, dozens injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2013 Abidjan, Ivory Coast 62 dead, dozens injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crazing)2013 Allahabab, Northern India 36 dead, 31 injured (Overcrowding, railway platform) Design (Capacity + Crowd management)2013 Hubei, China 4 Dead, 14 injured (Overcrowding on stairs - school) Crowd Management2013 Datia, India 50 dead, 100+ injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crowd management)2013 Anambra, Nigeria 28 dead, 200+ injured (Overreaction/Design - call of “fire”) Design (Capacity and crazing)2014 Ningxia, China 14 Dead, 10 Injured (Design/Overcrowding/Capacity - food handouts) Design (Crowd flow, Crowd management)2014 Mumbai, India 20 dead, 40 injured (Overcrowding, narrow streets) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2015 Shanghaii, China 36 dead, 46 injured - crowd crushing (overcrowding) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2015 Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia 1500+ dead, thousands injured (overcrowding) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2016 Lucknow, India 24 dead, 20 injured (overcrowding on bridge) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2016 Falls festival, Australia 60 injured on egress Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2017 Angola, Africa 17 dead, 76 injured crowd rushing entry point Design (Crowd flow, Crowd management)


!9Year Location Scale of the incident Failure Elements1989 Hillsborough, UK 96 dead, 400 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1990 Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia 1426 pilgrims crushed (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1991 Orkney, South Africa 42 dead, many injured (Overcrowding/riot) Design (Capacity + Crazing)1994 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 266 pilgrims crushed, 98 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1996 Guatemala City 83 crushed, 180 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Forged Tickets)1997 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 22 pilgrims crushed, 43 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1998 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 118 pilgrims crushed, 434 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)1999 Kerala, India 51 killed, 150 injured in stampede (Reaction) Information (Weather + Running)1999 Minsk, Belarus 53 killed, 190 injured in stampede (Reaction) Information (Weather + Running)2001 Ellis Park, South Africa 43 dead, 200+ Injured (Over capacity - Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crazing)2001 Aracaju, Brazil 4 dead, including 3 children (Reaction) Information (Handouts + Crazing)2002 Yokohama, Japan 10 trampled, Mall crowd craze (Reaction) Information (Handouts + Crazing)2001 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 35 pilgrims crushed, 179 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2004 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 249 pilgrims crushed, 252 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2004 Beijing, China 37 dead, 15 injured in crowd crush (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2006 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 363 dead, 389 injured crowd crush (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2006 Manila, Philippines 74 dead, 300 injured crowd crush (Reaction) Design (Throughput)2006 Yemen, Middle East 51 dead, 238 Injured crowd crush (Reaction) Information (Political Rally)2008 Himachal Pradesh, India 146 dead, 50 injured in stampede (Narrow road) Design (Throughput)2008 Pasuran, Java 23 dead, dozens injured in Ramadan (Reaction) Information (Handouts)2009 Abidjan, Ivory Coast 22 dead, 132 injured Football (Reaction) Design (Throughput)2009 Birmingham (JLS), UK 60 injured, 4 hospitalised (JLS) (Reaction) Design (Capacity + Arrival Profile)2010 Timbuktu, Mali, West Africa 26 dead, 55 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2010 Kunda, North India 63 dead, 44 injured (Overcrowding - narrow road) Design (Throughput)2010 Johannesburg, South Africa 14 injured (Overcrowding at entry gates) Information (Forged Tickets)2010 Duisburg, Germany. 21 dead, 511 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2010 Bihar, India 10 dead, dozens injured (Reaction) Information (Over Reaction)2010 Nairobi, Kenya 7 dead, 70 injured (Reaction) Information (Rain Stopped)2010 Phnom Penh, Cambodia 347 dead, 395 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity)2011 Kerala, India 102 dead, 44 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity)2011 Bamako, Mali 36 dead, 70 Injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity)2011 Brazzaville, Congo 7 dead, 30 Injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity)2011 Jakarta, Indonesia 2 dead, 13 Injured (Overcrowding) Information (Poor Ticket Allocation)2012 Port Said, Egypt 74 dead, over 1,000 Injured (Overcrowding + rioting) Design (Throughput + Riot)2012 Cairo (copic), Egypt 3 dead, dozens injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput)2013 Abidjan, Ivory Coast 62 dead, dozens injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crazing)2013 Allahabab, Northern India 36 dead, 31 injured (Overcrowding, railway platform) Design (Capacity + Crowd management)2013 Hubei, China 4 Dead, 14 injured (Overcrowding on stairs - school) Crowd Management2013 Datia, India 50 dead, 100+ injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crowd management)2013 Anambra, Nigeria 28 dead, 200+ injured (Overreaction/Design - call of “fire”) Design (Capacity and crazing)2014 Ningxia, China 14 Dead, 10 Injured (Design/Overcrowding/Capacity - food handouts) Design (Crowd flow, Crowd management)2014 Mumbai, India 20 dead, 40 injured (Overcrowding, narrow streets) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2015 Shanghaii, China 36 dead, 46 injured - crowd crushing (overcrowding) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2015 Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia 1500+ dead, thousands injured (overcrowding) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2016 Lucknow, India 24 dead, 20 injured (overcrowding on bridge) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2016 Falls festival, Australia 60 injured on egress Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow)2017 Angola, Africa 17 dead, 76 injured crowd rushing entry point Design (Crowd flow, Crowd management)


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Normal Ingress Circulation Egress

Design

Information

Management

Emergency Ingress Circulation Egress

Design

Information

Management

DIM - ICE : Phases, Influences, Modes


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Examples of DIM-ICE risk model

Source - MSc students© G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

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Multiple DIM-ICE models


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2 people per square metre - unimpeded


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3 people per square metre - unimpeded


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4 people per square metre - impeded


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5 people per square metre


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5 marching in step


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6 people per square metre


Crowd density versus crowd flow rate!19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

Flow

Rat

e (p

eopl

e pe

r m

etre

per

min

ute)

Crowd Density (people per square metre)

Crowd Density versus Flow Rates Low Risk High Risk

Standing

Moving

Predictable Unpredictable

Free Flowing Congested

Capacity


The physics of a crowd collapse How to identify the risks of crowd collapse

Shockwaves and crowds collapse?


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The accident pyramid and risk analysis!23

1 Death

10 Injuries

30 First Aid

600 Near Miss

Unknown Unsafe Acts© G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

What is a crowd/event “near miss”?


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Pressure building up - needs redesign


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Imagine you have an egg …


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…and you try to push it back into

the chicken.


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We don’t know how many people may come to the event… ...what is the best way to plan for a major event?

What direction will crowds approach and depart the area? Route question (transportation hubs to and from event site)

What is your event capacity? How much Area do you have? How will the area be used?

How quickly will these spaces fill? What crowd Movements do we expect? Over what period of time?

What type of crowd are we expecting? People, demographics, families?

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Common open event questions (RAMP)


We sent a man to the moon by rubbing bits of plastic together

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The Slide Rule


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Routes - parade distribution/pressure

No immediate rail access


Leicester Caribbean Carnival

The premier multi-cultural event - Midlands (UK) 100,000

For 25 years high profile, city wide revenue Low crime and disorder


Donec quis nunc

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Areas - Victoria Park – 90,000m2


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8,400 m2

10,000 m2

7,000 m2


Google Earth - using simple powerpoint graphics. The visuals do all the work

Site rejected - the event will not fit in the space!

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Model of the change of venue


Donec quis nunc

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Modelling New Year (London 2006 - 2016)


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Crowd fill predictor - movement


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Movement


People (profile)

Composition, demographics, history Previous behaviour (linked to performer/venue)

What do we know of this crowd? © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

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Kim Kardashian - Millions of Milkshakes


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Concert 5 - 6 pm2

Large Screens 2.5 pm2


Using models for decision support

Modelling work for the Sydney Olympics Site analysis, crowd management plan

Control room systems


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Crowd Condition Monitor

14 days

11m - 14m people


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Jamarat Bridge 3,000,000 people per day


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Jamarat Bridge 3,000,000 people per day


Risks - public and professional views


One day course - Ipswich


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Sample from a risk assessment


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We need to identify the following:

Location Risk may be focussed at a specific location

Duration Risk may exist for a short time (entry/exit systems)

Severity Risk may be high or low at different times


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Event ingress risk mapping


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Mid-event risk mapping


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Event egress risk mapping


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Inter-professional communications

Problem we need to fix


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Application for congestion


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Incident - location - risk - response


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Area - time - density and movement


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Operational Research and Crowd Science

Forecasting Arrival and Departure rates


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Queueing Theory (linked to behaviour)


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Decision trees “What if” scenario planning


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Activity Cycle Diagrams


Inauguration (2017)

Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still FIMA FICPEM SFIIRSM MEWI FIPM FHEA Capt. Marcel Altenburg MA PGDip


Captain and Unit Commander in the German Federal Armed Forces 12 years leading and training ground combat troops

Leading role in control rooms and situation rooms Military and civilian

MA in Human Science Hamburg University and Helmut-Schmidt-University, Germany (2008-2012)

MSc Student in Crowd Safety and Risk Analysis Manchester Metropolitan University (since 2015)

Enterprise Delivery Fellow at MMU 16th Jan 2017 (4 days before the inauguration) 2 years working with me on international projects

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Capt. Marcel Altenburg MA PGDip


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31st Dec 2016


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Using Google Earth to approximate the field of view This maps to a ground area calculation

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Using Goole Earth to estimate the distance


1410 m2 x 5 people per square metre = 7,050 people

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Approximate field of image view (1,410 m2)


In 1861 source http://www.authentic-campaigner.com/forum/showthread.php?9307-soldier-s-heights-and-weights

The average height is 5 ft 7 in. The average weight is 137 lbs

In 2017 source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_average_human_height_worldwideUnited States and http://www.newsmax.com/US/average-weight-man-woman-obese/2015/06/15/id/650546/

The average height is 5 ft 9 in The average weight is 166 lbs

+20% body mass, we can assume a 6 people per square metre packing density for smaller body sizes (even in Winter)

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Anthropomorphic analysis


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4 March 1861

5,000 people

2,000 people

300 people

50 people

Head Count (Approximation)

7,350 people


“Can you guys do this LIVE?”

Boasting of 3,000,000 people


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Routes for the inauguration 2017


What area can the crowd occupy?

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Area for the inauguration 2017


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New York Marathon 42.195km!80

42 km x 2 sides = 84,000m

x 2 (people per metre) = 168,000 people x 18 deep (both sides) = 3,024,000 people


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Obama (2009) high resolution images

Estimated 1.8 million people would cover 720,000 m2

Obama crowd (2009) occupied 175,000 m2 400,000 to 500,000 people


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From the White House website we had the area allocations

We can measures these areas using Google Earth Pro

Crowd Dynamics Routes, Areas, Movement (transport and parking capacity)

Then monitor the crowd build up on the day

How the space is filling over time


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Bowl = 39,346 m2 -10% for spaces

35,000 m2 of seating All seated 2 people per square metres

70,000 people (approx)


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Penn Avenue = 7,300m2 Union Square = 20,000m2

Maryland Ave. = 5,300m2 Mall Standing = 33,200m2 Total area = 65,800m2

At 2pm2 = 131,600 At 3pm2 = 197,400

The Bowl 70,000 people

Between 200,000 and 267,400 people If 100% occupied space

250,000 tickets


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Only part of the mall area was covered

We can see the white flooring (used in 2013)

The media tent is the end of the viewing space

No one can see from behind the tent


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The Mall area was 200,000 m2

For safety, the sections are divided Barriers and the media tent

It could hold 500,000 people (@ 2.5 pm2) If fully occupied (includes the Mall Standing area)


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Movement (metro and parking - live)

Compare to 2009


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Time lapse of the 2017 inauguration


From the 2009 satellite images we can measure the high density areas

The front 1/3rd (beyond the reflecting pool) was full in both events

The back 2/3rd’s were empty for 2017

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Measuring the satellite images

2009

2017


The New York Times published the article, using the above graphics

We had confirmation in the visuals, the area analysis, the crowd build up over time and the metro data.

All point to 1/3rd the Obama crowd

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The high density areas were 1/3rd of 2009


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At 11am 193,000 trips (2017)

37%100%


The viral tweet


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“I made a speech, I looked out..”


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9th Street

It was a mostly empty field

Not packed to the Washington Memorial,

3rd to 9th only partially full

6 blocks not 20

It was raining throughout

3rd Street


George W. Bush made international headlines trying to pull on a poncho during the speech

A moment of light relief in an otherwise downbeat, doom and gloom, speech

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Global news coverages - rained throughout


Great job guys, could you count the Women’s March today?

How big would this crowd be?

Will this become a story?

New York Times (21st Jan 2017)


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37%100% 54%


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295%

Inauguration 61,000m2

Women's March 180,000m2


New York Times - graphics department!101


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NYT - front page 3 times in one week


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Saturday 21st Jan 2017


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Kellyanne Conway - Counsellor to the President


Trolls - these are NOT at the same time

We can see Obama and Trump on the screens !© G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

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440,000 confirmed count


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Independent validation (hi-resolution images)

Crowd counting estimates vs hard count

440,000 +/- 10% during the march

Our count was in real-time during assembly 470,000 +/- 10%


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The Boys from MMU who

Tony Schwartz

Sir Anthony Hopkins as Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still

Michael Fassbender as Capt. Marcel Altenburg

(c) All rights reserved


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“A new ethos”


Any questions?

Balancing Safety and Security

Understanding Crowd Dynamics - Home - The OR Society · 2006 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 363 dead, 389...

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Transcript of Understanding Crowd Dynamics - Home - The OR Society · 2006 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 363 dead, 389...